Where now for Scotland in the 6 nations?

Now that the championship is well and truly beyond us, it is time to look forward to the world cup and consider the opportunity the next three 6 nations games provide for us as preparation for New Zealand. Yes we want restore some pride and win these games but we also have to recognize that many of our starting squad members aren't up to that task.

After two rounds we now know the following about our match day 22. In Donald Rumsfeld's parlance “the known knowns”:

Eaun Murray: he is no longer a world class prop or indeed an international class one. His dismantling by Domingo could be put down to the French man's class, having the “light weight” Gray locking behind him, the phase of the moon etc. etc.

However his similar treatment by the good, but nowhere near as good ,Paul James with the grizzled Hines behind him showed how far he has fallen. He now needs to be given time to get his head, body and form together to challenge for a squad place on merit, not on reputation. Robinson's decision to keep Murray for Wales must be his biggest Scotland selection gaffe by a large margin.

Nathan Hines: Still has a lot to offer as a bench replacement but has nowhere near the dynamic ability of Ritchie Gray. Asking him to play a full 80 at lock is a big ask. Asking him to start at blindside is an ask too far. He simply doesn't have the pace or fitness to cope against a top tier nation. With the pace and width that Ireland put on the ball he would be terribly exposed in defensive chores.

Ritchie Vernon: An excellent back up no 8. When we have a good chance of gaining scrum supremacy his pace off the base can be a magnificent asset. However if he is going backwards his relative lack of bulk makes him considerably less effective. Probably our third best no 8 behind Beattie and Brown

Mike Blair: Still to rediscover anywhere near his best form. His passing is often laboured and his insistence on imitating George Gregan by taking 3 or 4 steps before passing is cutting down the space for whoever is playing 10. His kicking is also wayward at the moment.Allowed Byrne all the time in the world to gather and clear, or counter attack.

Dan Parks: If anyone needed reminding that Parks is a front foot player the last 2 games have shown that without a solid scrum he becomes largely ineffective. The options are to fix the scrum, and stick with Dan, or accept that we will not progress beyond the group stages and build for the next world cup and play Jackson and Weir and drop Parks forever. Whilst that is appealing to many i don't think we are yet ready to give up on progressing to the last 8. IMO Jackson doesn't yet have the ability to guide us to the knock out stages in New Zealand.

Nick De Luca: the question is can be an effective inside centre when playing outside Parks? The answer at the moment is clearly no. He doesn't have the physical or technical attributes to deal with the bad ball often shipped out by Parks. He gets turned over in contact too readily and rarely goes forward instead running laterally to find a gap. This has the effect of shutting down space for the rest of the backs.

Nikki Walker: an excellent club player who finishes tries made by a creative midfield at Ospreys. He happily runs in tries from up to 20 yards with one player to beat. As indeed he did for his try against Samoa. This type of opportunity presents itself once in about every 10 Scotland games.
For Scotland he is usually asked to work off bad ball, with two or more defenders to cope with. He also may need to pass , kick or stay on his feet in a tackle and look for an offload. All these tasks are beyond his skill set, he simply is not able to operate effectively for Scotland.


Hugo Southwell: At his best he is a solid defender with a long left boot but is fairly ineffective as a running threat. He hardly ever causes good defences any problems with ball in hand. At his worst, well watch the first 20 minutes of the Wales match.

Sean Lamont: Looks to have the old fire back and has been our best outfield back over the two games. He must surely start the next one.

Now for the interesting players, Rumsfelds “ unknown knowns”

John Welsh: The Glasgow loosehead was a major contributor in the Warrior's scrum dominance last season. His injury towards the tail end of last season was a blow for him and the club as they marched to the play offs in the league. He has taken a while to re-establish last year's form but stiff competition in the form of Ryan Grant is helping him back near to his best.
With group games against Argentina and England, if he proved to be an international class scrummager that would be a massive boost to out qualification chances.

Rob Harley: In his first year of pro rugby he has stepped up to every challenge: Magner's, Heinekin and Scotland A and has stood out at each level as a class act. He appears unfazed by each increase in intensity and it would be great to see if he could have a realistic chance of making the plane if Strokosch doesn't recover form and fitness. Provides you with a genuine blind side flanker for when Brown moves over to 8 when Beattie goes off. Beattie surely must be fit enough for the next match by now with 6 or is it 7 games under his belt.

Ross Rennie: Proved an able deputy for Barclay who is not yet hitting the heights of last season. A niggling achilles problem makes his long term fitness a possible concern. Can the “turn over king” of Edinburgh do a job for 80 minutes instead of 20? time to find out.

Greg Laidlaw: Does the basics so much sharper than Blair. Quick to the breakdown his pass is quick and accurate, giving the stand off as much time as possible to access the options. His box kicking is also very good, and he recently won MOTM against Ireland A. Can he make the step up to be our full international level and give us another option for the squad?

Ben Cairns: The forgotten man of Edinburgh rugby. Such a talented player, always carries the ball in two hands to keep defenders guessing. Good distribution and the ability to play 13, 15 or wing at a push. Struggles defensively at times but when Jackson is on the field he should get better ball and be able to make an impact.

Jim Thomson: An outstanding prospect for full back or wing. He always seems to have time on the ball. He can pick passes off his bootstraps and seems to find space when none appears available. Great passer and off loader, could prove to be a great counter attacking threat at 15. He reads the game really well and rarely gets caught out of position.

So here is my team for Ireland:

1.Jacobsen
2.Ford
3.Low
4.Gray – head and shoulders above Hines at the mo, must start.
5.Kellock
6.Brown – most consistent forward over the 2 games so far, best position is here.
7.Rennie – deserves a shot at the start, should help to slow Ireland's wide game.
8.Beattie – desperately missing his carrying power, must come back in even if not 100% yet.

9.Lawson
10.Parks – Low should give him the platform to control the game and get us field position
11.S Lamont – most dangerous attacker,must start and free up the bench for another player.
12.Ansbro – only realistic option, strong enough and direct enough to deal with Park's passes.
13.Evans – better centre than winger, causes opponents more problems at 13.
14.J Thomson – move him to FB some time in the second half. Robinson needs to see if he can make a difference to the effectiveness of our attack.
15.R Lamont – need power and counter attacking ability at the back. Hope he can last the game without injury!

Bench

16.Hall – familiar face for Welsh
17.Welsh – need to see if he can offer a good scrummaging option from the bench.
18.Hines – needs to make an impact when he gets on for the last 20 or so.
19.Harley – can he push for a squad place? Certainly will give you everything he has and has such a good temperament for such an inexperienced player.
20.Liadlaw – will give great service to his stand off and his kicking game is excellent..
21.Jackson
22.Cairns – to come on at 13, either Evans or R Lamont goes to wing and Thomson to FB if he is playing well.

You clearly have a strong knowledge of Scottish rugby and even though i regularly see the Scottish teams in the Magners, I would never say that I'm in a position to argue.

Besides your arguments look well thought out, maybe an e-mail to Robinson would help?

Good article

Scotland have been making some very good progress under AR. Last weekend was a mess but it does happen to teams every now and then. Its not the end of the world and i would'nt be suprised to see Scotland do well at the WC.

Great article

Obviously given your starting line up you feel that Sean Lamont should play on the wing with Max Evans coming in at outside centre but I've read a few comments elsewhere that Lamont should start at 13 with Ansbro moving to inside centre.

What do you make of that suggestion?