Next week's SA v NZ game

On what I have witnessed today, and I don't mean this to sound arrogant because I know SA will come back from this bitter defeat, I can see no reason why NZ will not win next week.

SA do not have a coherent game plan. It relies heavily on Du Preez's accurate boot but when this goes wrong there is no Plan B. Pierre Spies was the best SA player by far but he lacked support and I believe that the Matfield/Botha partnership has seen better days. Matfield lost a couple of lineouts and Botha spent most of the day running sideways and doing little else. John Smit may be a great leader of men, but he is no great player. There are many better players in either of his positions but Pdivvy is drunk on Smit so whilst he is there a weakness remains. The SA backline is inept and impotent without a playmaking flyhalf. De Villiers and Fourie are class players but they need someone inside to take the ball to the line and in Steyn/James they dont have that player. I firmly believe Colin Slade is a better flyhalf than both of them.

So, when the pressure was on, SA have buckled in their first big test of the year. It wasn't even as if Australia played well, just did what they had to when it counted. A bigger test remains next week against a (depending on who you listen to) weakened All Black team. However, there is enough talent and experience to make sure NZ will win.

I have a feeling this SA team is going to be horribly exposed as one which should have let it's statesmen go after the Lions win in 2009.

I never got the feeling that SA was going to score a try tonight, they just seemed to be lacking that typical killer bok instinct and intensity. They need to adjust their game plan and fast because time's quickly running out.

James can't kick.... Steyn struggles to run a back line.

Amazing that they have totally ignored the best 10 in SA this year Peter Grant.

He was the top kicker in the S15 this year with a 86% accuracy rate and he was able to run the stormers well.

Instead they go with James... the guy who runs the backline of the worst team in SA, one of the worst in the S15 and who hasn't played for the boks in 2 years.

Myself, I think the boks will win next week. There is a lot of quality in this side still.... but more important they know it is a do or die match.... a lot rides on it and pride can take teams very very far (remember ENG in 07).

It reminds me of the 2nd lions test in 97. The boks were hurt and hurt bad, they came on the next week and threw absolutely everything at the lions and scored 3 tries to Nil.... however a lack of a kicker caused them the match as Jenkins kept the lions in it.

If PDV is brave (he is not) he will choose a side who can actually go out their & win... give Matfield the Captains armband, drop Smit, Drop Habana, bring back Morne & Aplon and tell Frans Steyn to hit a treadmill and run all the way to NZ (the only way he will get the weight of 2 years of Parisian Crossiants off).

Just numb after that match
not sure if i want to read biltongs take on it but just feel i havnt seen a test.
Credit must go to oz to win away and to do it by grinding but id sure expected SA to front with more than that.

Don`t really know what to say,firstly Both sides looked disinterested,for
Aus,the win puts them in the postion to win the 3ns in Brisbane,they must be pleased by there forward display and Robbie Deans vindicated sending
full side.
Even the weakened All Black side would probably have won this one,and
really don`t know why they decided the team for next week before the result after the match was finished.
A rusty team no matter how good that has had no game time yet was going to fire straightaway.
Its easy being wise after the event,BUT I did question Butch James and Franny Steyn before the match.Also did suggest Peter Grant should have been in the mix.
Next week with the right selections assuming the Boks are using the same squad. Du Plessis strating at Hooker ,Aplon at full back,Hougaard,and Lambie starting,Matfield as captain.They will be better with match under there belt and playing for pride.At Home at the All Blacks Graveyard BOKs
will have a real go.
All Blacks,travel,they already knew the squad why not send themlast week
give them another week to get used to playiing condition.
Too many changes.to many fitness doubts,too many ifs,not at all confident
about the All Blacks for this one,they MAY win and a bonus point is a real possibility for a narrow loss.
Then a rested OZ at Brisbane presumably still hiding Carter,McCaw ,Read and co. a very realchance of an oz 3 Ns,momentum going into a RWC.
DOUBT in against them the minds of the AB squad versus likely SF,F ,against sides who have win stats in RWCs .already the only ones
God I hate this bloody shadow boxing Pre- RWC,a 3Ns match barely worthy of the name.
England with masses of possession trying endless bash tactics and losing to Wales.
WHY,because that is the way RWCs are won.LORD .give me strength.

Not quite sure why you're mentioning England and Wales in a thread about SA V NZ ?

BECAUSE they are warm up games by teams using the old RWC winning formula.OR rather not winning .

emack2 wrote:BECAUSE they are warm up games by teams using the old RWC winning formula.OR rather not winning .

What ?

I'm sure the SA v NZ match is not a RWC warm up game, but part of the 3N ?

THIS YEAR they`ve been threwn, because of the RWC if you have been keeping up.
Have you not seen the respective Bok and All Black squads in this years 3 Ns.
A Bok c side for the first two home legs,todays losing side not played for a long time,caught cold using Classic RWC winning tactics .ditto England/
Next week the All Blacks B is having a run.

Good team. Best we could muster..GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES...

Some big challenges for some young AB's for this one and the'yll not shirk their responsibility, OR LOYALTY.

And after last night, I reckon they'll go very well...

Go the Blacks

I do somewhat think that the Springboks will be all the better for that run this morning.
Sure australia stretched and split them at times,But a lot of those Boks hadn't played for quite some time.
While I'm on it, who else thought Bakkies Botha had a good game ?

In that Bok squad there is the basis of a very good team,if the Coach be it PDV or Erasmus selects the right team the All Blacks will have a fight on there hand.
Having read the NZ papers this morning,I have discovered a couple of things.THe RWC squad will be picked in 10 days time.
That under some rules only 26 may go and train together in Australia,the other 4 will travel but not train.
Also Henry stated there were 8 players vieing for 6 back 3 spots,which implies to me one of two things.He is only taking 4 mid fielders,or only 2
Scrum halves.Since Weepu is expected to give some cover at 10 too that implies what?He is going to have a shadow squad on standby to draft in if required?
Within the constraints of the squad for SA ,seems likely Afoa ,Woodcock,and Ben Franks will play which would seem to indicate Wyatt Crockett will be discarded.Owen Franks is a certaintey,and Ben the only genuine Prop who is world class on both Heads.
Hoerta passed fit will lock with Ali Williams, Whitelock of the bench,Kaino will be on the bench.Thomson ,Vito and Messam as loosies.
Thomson getting a shot at 7 ,but his form is so good,he will be one of the two spare loosie spots,Vito and Messam fighting for the last spot.
How Thomson goes may mean a specialist 7 to cover Richie Mc Caw.
Cowan,and Ellis on the bench Weepu maybe covering for Slade at some point.Kahui and SBW starting Nonu on the bench.
Back three ,Muliana won`t play Cory Jane,Toeva,Dagg, Guildford,Gear all getting some game time.
I hope they are taking this match seriously as a win here means,AUS would have to beat the All Blacks by more than 7 to win the 3Ns[assuming no 4 try blow outs]
The last thing you want is Musical chairs off the bench,it would be awkward if Slade is injured early.
Australia look to have improved there set pieces especially the scrums.
Expect a stronger Bok side next week with Juan Smith at least starting.

emack2 wrote:
Then a rested OZ at Brisbane presumably still hiding Carter,McCaw ,Read and co. a very realchance of an oz 3 Ns,momentum going into a RWC.
DOUBT in against them the minds of the AB squad versus likely SF,F ,against sides who have win stats in RWCs .already the only ones
God I hate this bloody shadow boxing Pre- RWC,a 3Ns match barely worthy of the name.
.

My view is that if ABs happen to go down this Sat they will not be resting anyone for the last 3N.

Anyway, I am getting a bit over all this "resting" Why would Carter have to be rested anyway? Is he nearly 40 or has arthritis in his kness or something? They rest Read and Co then bring them back for one game , then rest them a week later? Just wonder if they are asking for trouble - essentially this is rotation at the start of the season. SR is well and truly history. Don't get it.

It's not about Carter being rested, it's about Slade getting game time. DC gets hurt and we don't have anyone with big game experience at 10 to run the ship. Having said that in 07 DC and Evans both got crocked. So **** happens. I expect this side to do well and I'm sure the other Kiwis on here do too.

Agree with Taylor Botha played bloody well. Great for the Boks he did. With Smith coming back they'll be tough all right. Thomson will have to be outstanding vs Brussow too. Great challenge for him.

Prior to the 3ns a squad was annouced including 4 players ,as injury backups ,Cory Jane,Sivivatu both who had little form,Wyatt Crockett and Ben Smith.Plus Victor Vito was added,Donnelly for Hoerta,plus Stephen Donald was named god help us as emergency back up.
Slade was always going to start,what is not wanted is just clearing the bench as they did versus OZ.
Combinations were`nt there and it got decidely messy,love the commentators.Australia were all over the All Blacks first half,in possession and territory stats,they had 3 shots at goal and missed them all.
All Blacks shut them down,and tackled like demons nearly every chance they had they scored.
Second half a bit messy as the bench was cleared,All Blacks dominated mostly,OZ got two tries."OZ won the second half?" talk.about platitudes
As to the Pocock and Cooper now Worlds number one not on that show.

Id expect full team for brisbane. Its the last op for a full dress rehearsal before the quarter givn france just may not front pool play.
Its also 3N title and resigning that now would be foolish.
GH isnt stupid and normally does whats right.its also a chance to seat oz at suncorp prior to the cup as a reminder.
Business as usual after next week. Im with disney on that one. Seeing how this selection goes makes it more exciting.

Taylorman wrote:Id expect full team for brisbane. Its the last op for a full dress rehearsal before the quarter givn france just may not front pool play.

Absolutely. The first team needs to front from Brisbane onwards. I'd expect them to play all the games through the WC bar either Canada or Japan (or both). That gives 4-5 games to get into a groove before the knock out stages

Havnt seen the latest table but with a deficit of 41 points i think it is nz will need a win and 4 tries to close the 3N out next week. 14 9 after 3 wins each would mean oz couldnt win it without setting some kind of massive record- a win by at least 42 would be needed.
So henry will be turning the heat on this young team to not only win but win with tries.

Big ask but that will give him more options for brissy where looking at coopers confidence (winning in brisbane then winning the cup kind of talk) anything is possible.
Even if we win by one point as long as we score 4 tries its as good as won i think.
Correct me if im wrong though...

According to Quade Cooper,they`ve already won the 3N`s prior to another
RWC win.Reckons they fronted up,going through the middle to win,lousy decision taking by the Boks should have won that one.
All Blacks need a win in SA,plus at least a bonus point in Brisbane to take the 3Ns.
They have the luxury of still losing in SA,and winning in Brisbane.

You sure alan?
My calc says 5 next week makes 14. 5 clear.
Means oz would need 5 plus a huge margin. Am i wrong there or are you just discointing a bp next week?
Not that im saying im expecting abs to win and get 4 tries next week (sory biltong) but that is the challenge for this team.
It would put GH in an extremely good position selection wise and the fringe players will rid of that expected '1st team would have done better talk' at the same time enhancing wcup selection which must be done before the oz game im hearing.
The other side to the coin is GH may want a final simulation and has counted on this scenario.
Either way hes calculated or got lucky with some very exciting prospects next two weeks.
Even losing the 3N could turn out to be a motivating factor come world cup time because we suck as hot faves at them.
SA will of course be aiming to stop the rot and this team could do more for them than the first team such will be their enthusiasm.

Looking at things,Franz Steyn,went off with a Hamstring,Jan Smit apparently has damaged a shoulder or arm.
So unlikely either will play,when is teams announced,I would expect Boks to have edge at lineouts.
All Blacks at the Scrums,Hoerta taking the Thorn role,but All Blacks have 7
genuine line out options for a change.
Back Row is the weakest link no genuine 7 ,hope the start Kaino with Vito and Messam a half each at Eight.Boric looks like no go for RWC squad but Donnelly is an excellent option.
Every one says how great the OZ backs are true,BUT Carter,Nonu,Conrad Smith and co arn`t exactly rubbish.
IF All Blacks win on Saturday ,then Australia would need a win by 8 points or more to win 3Ns,as bonus point unlikely on Saturday.

Yes very unlikely. I'm not counting on it but its certainly one they'll be going for.

They won't be looking to just grind out a win until they can't get the 4 tries as well. It could back fire but hey, worth a go and it puts us not a lot worse at Brisbane anyway. AB's will always take up this sort of a challenge...

Looking forward to it...

aucklandlaurie wrote: I do somewhat think that the Springboks will be all the better for that run this morning.
Sure australia stretched and split them at times,But a lot of those Boks hadn't played for quite some time.
While I'm on it, who else thought Bakkies Botha had a good game ?

Back to his swinging arm belting heads on entering rucks best.

emack2 wrote:
IF All Blacks win on Saturday ,then Australia would need a win by 8 points or more to win 3Ns,as bonus point unlikely on Saturday.

I think it's harder than that for W. If ABs win with no bonus point they move to 13 points Aust have 9. If Aust then beat the ABs by more than 8 and take 4 points then it is 13 each - ABs would win the 3N on points differential.

Aust won't be scoring 4 tries to win in Bne I think. So, they need SA to beat Abs this weekend.

Go Springboks!!!!!!

Yep thats what I thought too Rob.

Oz would want an AB loss to get a straight forward final.

Makes for an interesting 2 weeks...

Agree - probably wishful thinking but would be great for BNE to be a winner take all game. Suncorp will be rocking....

Rob I think it will be rocking anyway. The game will mean a lot to the Aussies and as much as NZ know that it doesn't mean squat going into the WC they'd like the Aussies to be down mentally.

Anyone else think that the Aussies are like the French at present in that you don't know what performance they'll give?

To an extent I agree. They are still quite immature and the lack of big match experience over multiple years means they don't seem to understand what is required week in and week out in terms of intensity in defense and at the breakdown. ABs cruelled them in that department. That comes down to inexperience, hardness and a lack of leadership. They have the speed and the fitness and creativeness, but still lack mongrel up front to provide a reliable platform for their backs.

I am encouraged by Samo getting a late opportunity to stake his claim - as always with Deans it takes him about 6 months longer than everyone else for the penny to drop. He works very well with Genia at scrumtime - Higginbotham is not really an 8. He may find himself on the bench as an impact player and that is perhaps where he will make all the difference. 55 for Samo and 25 for Higgin.

When fit I think Slipper will take Alexander's spot at tighthead.

TPN will be Moore's backup - again a big impact player with 20 to go.

I would also like to see A Faainga get more game time at 12 or 13. His defense is just monstrous and he pulled off some crucial tackles on the w/end. He also links extremely well with Ioane - AAC and Ioane just don't work well mainly because no one ever bothered to tell AAC that he is allowed to pass the ball. He bombed a certain try on the w/end by failing to offload to Beale when he was unmarked about 30 out.

NWS all that I suspect Deans will stick with that run on side in 2 weeks time.