Scotland's 40 into 30

We started out a couple of month's ago with a training squad of 40 players and a week yesterday Andy Robinson must reduce that down to 30.

Scotland provisional squad for the IRB Rugby World Cup 2011:

Backs – Joe Ansbro (Northampton Saints); Mike Blair, Ben Cairns (both Edinburgh), Chris Cusiter (Glasgow Warriors), Jack Cuthbert (Bath), Simon Danielli (Ulster), Nick De Luca (Edinburgh), Max Evans (Glasgow Warriors), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh), Rory Lamont (Toulon), Sean Lamont (Scarlets), Rory Lawson (Gloucester), Graeme Morrison (Glasgow Warriors), Dan Parks (Cardiff Blues), Chris Paterson (Edinburgh), Hugo Southwell (Stade Francais), Nikki Walker (Ospreys).

Forwards – John Barclay, John Beattie (both Glasgow Warriors), Kelly Brown (Saracens), Geoff Cross, David Denton (both Edinburgh), Alasdair Dickinson (Gloucester), Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Ryan Grant, Richie Gray, Dougie Hall (all Glasgow Warriors), Jim Hamilton (Gloucester), Robert Harley (Glasgow Warriors), Nathan Hines (Leinster), Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), Scott Lawson (Gloucester), Moray Low (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Newcastle Falcons), Ross Rennie (Edinburgh), Alasdair Strokosch (Gloucester), Fergus Thomson, Richie Vernon (both Glasgow Warriors).

With Fergoos and Shuggy both ruled out early on thru injury, that took us down to 38.

Robbo also stated that if a player did not appear in our two warm-up games, then it was highly unlikely that they would make the final squad. So that eliminates Ben Cairns, Ryan Grant and Robert Harley, and we're now at 35.

Yesterday in announcing his XXII to face Italy, Robbo commented that he viewed Mossy as his back-up 10 to Ruaridh and Desparate, so with a cameo appearance from the bench for Greig Laidlaw, it seems likely that Edinburgh's new captain will be in a position to pick up the reins perhaps sooner than he would ideally have liked (he's young tho, and his real chance will come with the 2015 RWC). Similarly, Dave Denton and Jack Cuthbert have only featured briefly with neither exacly setting the heather on fire, so unless they've been doing something spectacular in training (and surely we'd have seen them given another chance against Italy if that was the case), then it seems like theiir participation is over too. 32 now must go into 30.

In today's Scotsman, David Ferguson muses on the likely make-up of the final squad: Scotland RWC squad. He notes that much depends on Euan Murray's ability to prove his fitness - should he not be able to do that from the bench against Italy, then it is unlikely he will travel, particularly given that he won't be available for the crucial game against Argentina. A fit Euge makes it probable that 5 props will travel (Chunk, Dickinson, Geoff Cross, Moray Low joining Euge), and unfit Euge suggests only 4. A similar logic applies to Chris Cusiter, who like Murray must prove himself from the bench on Saturday - if fit, he almost certainly travels, if unfit, then Greig Laidlaw may yet get his chance.

The other two areas where we are likely to see a player not travelling are the backrow and winger. For the former, some have already nailed on their spots - Barclay, Brown and Rennie; some have done their chances no harm at all - Stroks; but it would appear that there may only be one slot available to Johnnie Beattie and Richie Vernon, with the latter in a position to impress against Italy. Robbo probably sees Nathan Hines as cover at 6 if necessary, so that may not help Stroks' case. On the wing, versatility may well be the key, so players like Schlong Lamont and Maxy Evans who can both also play at centre are almost certain to travel, Rory Lamont is pencilled in as Mossy's back-up at 15, and it could well come down to a contest between Nikki Walker and Simon Danielli.

Here's how I think it will look come Tuesday:

Scotland provisional squad for the IRB Rugby World Cup 2011:

Backs – Joe Ansbro (Northampton Saints); Mike Blair, Ben Cairns (both Edinburgh), Chris Cusiter (Glasgow Warriors), Jack Cuthbert (Bath), Simon Danielli (Ulster), Nick De Luca (Edinburgh), Max Evans (Glasgow Warriors), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh), Rory Lamont (Toulon), Sean Lamont (Scarlets), Rory Lawson (Gloucester), Graeme Morrison (Glasgow Warriors), Dan Parks (Cardiff Blues), Chris Paterson (Edinburgh), Hugo Southwell (Stade Francais), Nikki Walker (Ospreys).

Forwards – John Barclay, John Beattie (both Glasgow Warriors), Kelly Brown (Saracens), Geoff Cross, David Denton (both Edinburgh), Alasdair Dickinson (Gloucester), Ross Ford (Edinburgh), Ryan Grant, Richie Gray, Dougie Hall (all Glasgow Warriors), Jim Hamilton (Gloucester), Robert Harley (Glasgow Warriors), Nathan Hines (Leinster), Allan Jacobsen (Edinburgh), Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), Scott Lawson (Gloucester), Moray Low (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Newcastle Falcons), Ross Rennie (Edinburgh), Alasdair Strokosch (Gloucester), Fergus Thomson, Richie Vernon (both Glasgow Warriors).

Your thoughts?

The Herald's take on how things stand: Scotland's RWC squad

This is a tough one to call, especialy since we don't know how Vernon or any of the other guys play on Saturday.

At this stage I reckon you have it just about 100% asbo although bringing Dougie Hall really sticks in my throat. I would rather leave him and bring an extra backrow and just pray that Ford & our penalty Magnet can remain fit.

I think that the main variables are:
(i) Big Euge's fitness - if fit, then he goes; if unfit, then an extra backrow goes (Vernon in pole, but could still be Denton with anoutside chance);
(ii) Cusiter's fitness - if fit, then he goes; if unfit, then Laidlaw goes.

If Cusiter can't come out this weekend and litteraly set the heather on Fire if I were Robbo I would find it very hard to justify his inclusion. He has missed the entire professional season and although I like the fact he took the initative and went out to the Oz to try and gain some match fitness, I just don't think I could justify his place on the plane.

Equally if Blair can't recover some form we might be in a wee bit trouble since Lawson looked a wee bit ruffled by the antics of Cullen et al a week ago. Ireland were pretty dodgey at the breakdown and they did a very good job of slowing our ball down.

Laidlaw can consider himself really unlucky not to be going unless he impressed so much in his 10 minute stint by unleashing the backs for that try.

ASBO - agreed on the backs. The only query is whether both Blair and Cusiter are fit enough, but with Laidlaw missing out altogether on Saturday, it seems unlikely to me that he'll travel. Pity.

In the forwards I think Euan Murray will miss the cut and Richie Vernon will make it. It seems odd that Vernon would start this game and not be going.

The only thing that could change that for me would be if Low really struggled against Italy, and Murray came on and shored things up. I wouldn't be hugely surprised if Low struggled against a top class front row, but I haven't seen anything for several years to suggest that Murray will come on and be his old destructive self. I'd like to be wrong, but when you add his form to the Sunday issue, and the question marks over the fitness of Beattie, I think in retrospect that Vernon would make a more telling contribution than Murray. Obviously it would make sense for Murray to be on handy stand-bye should an injury befall Cross or Low.

Thanks asbo - very erudite summation of what is likely to develop.

Radge, think it would be very serious news if CC did not travel. Lawson was woeful against Ireland and Blair is a shadow of his former self. Really disappointed for Laidlaw if he does not get a ticket on the plane.

I guess one big hope that I am harbouring is that for the players who have been considerably off their best for some time, a decent amount of pre-season preparation (relatively injury-free) will have been just the tonic to get them back to the standards we know they can achieve. I put Blair, Murray, Parks and even Danielli into this category

asbo,

how the hell did you mange to get a Herald in Devon, London or Amsterdam or are you visiting your homeland ? Its hard enough to get one in Sauchiehall St - Daily special land !!!!

Online newspaper junky, me!! Sadly don't get back to Scotland much at all now, mainly during 6Ns

Mods - apologies but Glasgow's red top rag (or Rangers/wendyball fanzine) is known as the Daily R e t **d (special)

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:I guess one big hope that I am harbouring is that for the players who have been considerably off their best for some time, a decent amount of pre-season preparation (relatively injury-free) will have been just the tonic to get them back to the standards we know they can achieve. I put Blair, Murray, Parks and even Danielli into this category

I guess we'll find out on Saturday. To give Murray some credit, he was pretty decent for Newcastle towards the end of the season, and Danielli has always been a strong performer for Ulster. It's really Blair and Parks that have spent the season scratching for form.

Haven't seen the Italy side yet, but if young Gori is playing at 9, then Blair will be busy.

No shocks there for me, maybe Harley or Vernon should of been included as back up, but that's a fairly strong squad.

I think Murray shouldn't go - he's going to miss a few games so he'd only be used for Romania or Georgia anyway, giving other props game time before the big tests. It also means are back row will stay fresh and at their rampaging best - a realy strength of ours.

As for back 3 - I think it's got to be Danielli or Walker to stay behind. Will probably depend on Saturday. I would probably prefer Danielli - Walker is a big lump that did well last week but he really has no rugby brain whatsoever!

Add Barclay to those who needed the chance to re-charge and get over injury. After 3 very good seasons he fell away this last year with his heel bothering him, his 6N performances were ok but nowhere near his rampaging best. The added impact of Rennie should spur him back up there.

Good summary of the current position, looks a good squad but no more. Think you've hit on the variables, not going to guess which options are preferred until final whistle on Saturday.

Cracking article ASBO. Reckon you missed your calling...

Agree with the majority of your squad. However I think this weekend's selection means its a shoot out between :

Vernon and Stroks
Danielli and Walker

I think it'll be Vernon and Walker, but I'm not that fussed either way. To me they are horses for courses, with Vernon offering the fashionable 'flexibility'.

I think, barring injury, Cus and Big Euge will travel. Robbo values their experience, as would almost every international coach, bar Mr Deans (after dropping Gits from his final 30).

Who reckons we'll get past the quarters then? France or the All Blacks to play...

Boston Exile wrote:Add Barclay to those who needed the chance to re-charge and get over injury. After 3 very good seasons he fell away this last year with his heel bothering him, his 6N performances were ok but nowhere near his rampaging best. The added impact of Rennie should spur him back up there.

Completely agree. The 3 B's combination was/is a strong unit, but if Beattie becomes second choice to Vernon following a strong showing on Saturday, then I think it puts even more pressure on Barclay. Rennie really was good against Ireland and since coming back from injury has been consistent. If the pack doesn't function so well against Italy, I don't think it's inconceivable that Rennie end up pipping Barclay to the post. Rennie is certainly the more effective attacking openside in my view.

Something to look out for on Saturday - number 8 pick-up. Vernon and Blair are both extremely fast, and it would show nice variation to use that option from time to time. Seems to be a lost art these days, but Peters and Armstrong used to do it all the time, and it's a good way of keeping the opposition back-row (a big strength for Italy) more focused on defending the forward channels rather than helping out the Italian backs.

If we play France in the QFs we have a chance. Lievremont is an idiot and seems to have found a way of picking players I wouldn't even have in the Scotland squad (Pallison on the wing and Trialle at 15 are two good examples).

Unfortunately I can't see any possibility of us beating the All Blacks, however it would be a cracking occasion to face them in the QF of a WC on home soil, and hopefully with frankly nothing to lose, AR would be able to throw a bit of caution to the wind with the tactics. We'd certainly put up a better fight than we saw at Murrayfield, and I don't think we'd make the same mistakes in terms of selection. I'd want a far more mobile side on the field.

Good shout on the 8/9 moves FES.

Care's out for the English. Youngs will travel but he is struggling for fitness.

I bl**dy hope our 9's are on form and fully fit by the time we play them, we could have a bit of fun with a 'pick and go' against Easter.

Also agree re Rennie. Barclay is class and Robbo will stick with him but I think Rennie will feature on the bench for the English and Argentina games for that exact reason.

My call re the quarters is bring them on, we all know anything can happen in the knock-out rounds and goodness knows we deserve a bit of luck for once!

Well I'd certainly back CP not to miss from in front of the posts were we to reach a semi-final!!

NickJ - All is possible we should beat Georgia and Romania, with varying levels of comfort, as long as we don't take them lightly. Argentina will be much tougher but its been so long since I saw their first choice play I'm really not sure where they are. They need to work around the loss of Hernandez too.

England are a bit inconsistent too, we know they have a very good tight 5 with depth, back row not such a strength and the backs are a mixed bunch. It could all be clouded due to the nature of warm up games, hence they may be contenders, or they could turn out to be an easier game than Argentina (unlikely but not impossible).

Sure we'll debate all this on another thread in a month or so.

To make the semi-final Scotland probably need 4 from 4 (assuming NZ beat France) in the groups, doable but only 33% chance in my book. They then need to play their best game since Croke Park in 2010 to have a decent chance against France. Realistically it is "ifs and hope", lets just enjoy the tournament and try for some performances that'll raise a bit of interest in rugby back in Scotland - the longer term issue is the bigger challenge.

NickJ, I'll revise one thing, of the main contenders only NZ have a psychological sign over Scotland, and even then we usually play them well, last autumn was a serious exception.

Australia and SA we both beat last time out. Ok Aus was a bit fortunate but neither team will scare Scotland, we know we can do it.
Games with England and Ireland are close affairs.
France has been harder, not sure we've won since 2006, but again the gap has come right down and we scored 3 tries against them last time out.

They are the 5 teams who most think are in contention for the semis, if we get a good run in the group games and avoid NZ then we could do ok. Now if someone knocks out NZ then it blasts the whole RWC wide open (relatively speaking).

Hurrah. That's the spirit Boston!

Agreed - NZ are the only side I can't see us beating.

We can take anyone else on our day and have demonstrated that fairly recently. Our real issue is consistency. What we haven't been able to do yet is play well in consecutives games, and it goes without saying that World Cups necessarily hinge on that. Some teams can have an off day and still win, but we are not in that category. My hope is that we win the first three and then will go through, so that against England we can risk a more open game.

Something to get the juices flowing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpSu6oqW-2k

(altho makes me remember just how much we miss Thom Evans )

A nice reminder that we can actually create and score opportunities. Beattie's try against Ireland at Croke still a big favourite of mine.

I still have a few of those games on Sky+ (swanky eh!), I've refused to delete them until I've had the chance to see them again ahead of Septemer. Times running out now. Just hope I can replace them with a few more classics from the RWC!

FES - Beats fair smashes 3 Irish out of the way, eh. Am I right in thinking that its Earls, Murphy and D'Arcy?

I love the look on Barclay's face when he bursts through the Welsh defence and suddenly realises he's going to make the line! Classic - oh oh dear, I better not screw this one up...

nickj wrote:I still have a few of those games on Sky+ (swanky eh!), I've refused to delete them until I've had the chance to see them again ahead of Septemer. Times running out now. Just hope I can replace them with a few more classics from the RWC!

FES - Beats fair smashes 3 Irish out of the way, eh. Am I right in thinking that its Earls, Murphy and D'Arcy?

I love the look on Barclay's face when he bursts through the Welsh defence and suddenly realises he's going to make the line! Classic - oh oh dear, I better not screw this one up...

nick, i thought the red head was POC?

I also had to double take when watching Danielli's try against Italy. Yes, rub your eyes all you like, that was soft hands from Graeme Morrison that sent him away!!