Golden opportunity for Murray

With Djokovic tired and nursing a sore shoulder, Nadal and Fed off form, this US Open is opening up for Andy. Andy is no longer young for a tennis players. He is in the middle of what should be his absolute physical peak. Djokovic to me these last two weeks did not look right or play at the level near his epic run in the spring or at wimbeldon. I still believe Nole to be the favorite for the USO, but that will change for me if he shows up the first couple of rounds and struggles with his serve and shoulder. If Djokovic is having physical issues then clearly Murray has to be the favorite having won the last master's event and being in better form than Rafa and Roger. Of course both of these guys can still do it as well, but this type of opportunity doesn't come around every slam. Murray looks to be in the best physical form of the top 4 going into a grandslam. It is his favorite surface, and make no mistake about it after wimbeldon it is the next biggest tournament on the calendar due to importance of the US market and the history of event. If murray is going to win a slam this is his best opportunity to date. His top rivals are all stuggling either with their health or level of play. He is playing on his favorite surface and winning in cincy was great preparation. Alot of this does depend on Novak's health if Novak can serve and his shoulder holds up I think he is a big favorite, but that very well may not be the case, he struggled mightily in the last couple of matches in cincy with the shoulder.

Murray has to serve well and hit the forehand well to win it, he needs to return to what he was doing in 09 when he got to the number 2 ranking, taking the ball early and hitting the forehand with authority. He is being presented with a golden opportunity, and he won't have the added pressure of being the local hero at wimbeldon. This could be the one, or it could just be another one of those dissappointing fortnights for Andy.

For me the dark horse who shouldn't be written off is Federer.

He is running out of time and really must want to go out on a high, so he will most definitely be there near the latter stages.

Having said all that I hope Murray can make it, he has been there before and should be in with a good shout.

However "banana skins" will be there for all and there maybe a surprise amongst them.

Good post socal. I think eyes will certainly be Andy now with concerns on Novak's fitness and the the recent form of Federer and Nadal. As you quite rightly said his serve and forehand need to be up to scratch. If he can use the FH from this year's French Open and his serve from 2007 he will have a great chance.

I know it sounds obvious, but the draw is key and favourable one similar to the FO will do wonders. The thing is Murray's form has been 'scratchy' and Cincinnatti was a scrap fest to say the least. Rome must not be forgotten with Djokovic who seemed fatigued and out of the match and still pulled a victory of the bag against Murray who was playing some top tennis.

Murray needs to clear his mind of any attention that will focus on him given the doubts that will surround the top 3.

I would very much welcome a victor out of the top 4. Would be refreshing.

I can't see anyone out of the top 4 winning it legend but bigger surprises have happened. SL, no one is counting out fed, but percentage wise I think this is murray's best chance to date to snatch a grandslam. Djokovic's rise has given Nadal a hangover and father time has taken its toll on Roger, but if he is serves well he is always a threat.

I really think that murray should realize the opportunity he has and just find away early on to come out gun's blazing and set the tone, like he did in AO 2010 up to the final. He has got to find away to go after the ball and play cleanly enough to win. This is one opportunity that he has to be able to seize and as LK has said the draw is very important.

If Djokovic is still having problems with his shoulder. Nadal and Federer will still be ahead of Murray as far as favourite goes. All the bookmakers agree. If Djokovic still has a problem and if Murray is on Djokovics half of the draw then he potentially has a better chance of getting to the final. But I would also say in that case it would be a golden opportunity for many players in that half.

I'm hoping that Djokovics shoulder is recovered, Nadals blisters are healed and Federer is feeling extra motivated so that we can see some great play. The last thing I want for the US Open is any player getting to the final or winning by way of a "golden opportunity". Where's the fun for the spectator in that? I want to see it won through great play!

Hawkeye even if the draw does murray a couple of favors I think he will still have to play at a much higher level and more aggressively to win this US open. There are a lot of danger players out there for all of the top 4, right now each one of the three guys above murray looks more susceptible than they have all year.

Yes, good posts socal. After Montreal who would have thought we would have been having these thoughts. I bet the other big names will now see him as a real threat.

teassoc, you are right a couple of weeks ago nobody could have thought that each of the players ranked above Murray would have this many question marks going into the open. Djokovic would be a clear favorite but his shoulder hasn't looked right for the last few matches and it may limit his effectiveness greatly. With the three guys above him hitting a little slump in the heat of the summer and with niggling injuries the onus is now on him.

social you may be having these thoughts but the bookmakers don't share them...

Well, I am not really interested in the bookies, just giving my opinion. Maybe Nadal or Fed would still be more favored but this might still represents the best chance Andy has had so far. Remember how impenetrable these two have been over the years, and how impenetrable Djoko has looked all year up till this week. His chances are relatively much higher than they have ever been going into a slam. Although in 2010 going into Aus he looked like clearly the 1st or second favorite for that tournament as well as he had played really well the year before. He isn't going to get many chances in the near future with both Djoko and Nadal looking shakey going into a grandslam.

He certainly looks like he's in a good position right now. However, Nadal and Federer are masters of playing themselves into form during a slam, and it wouldn't surprise me if they managed that again.

With Djoko, not sure how he will be. He could be fine for all we know. None of us have any idea how bad his shoulder is, but he certainly looked very fatigued during those last 3 games against Murray.

It's all still variable, but Andy was looking an outsider a few weeks ago and I thought he needed a good run and a scalp of one of the big boys to go into the US with sufficient confidence and momentum. He managed to do that, and win the title... So he's in a good position. Just how good we'll be able to assess a bit more after the draw.

Good post Dany, Andy is in a better position than he was a week or two ago. He can't keep letting these opportunities pass him by. As you correctly pointed out a great deal depends on what kind of physical condition Djokovic is in. If he is feeling better and his shoulder is manageable he has earned the right to being a very clear and strong favorite.

sportslover wrote:For me the dark horse who shouldn't be written off is Federer.

He is running out of time and really must want to go out on a high, so he will most definitely be there near the latter stages.

Having said all that I hope Murray can make it, he has been there before and should be in with a good shout.

However "banana skins" will be there for all and there maybe a surprise amongst them.

I really can't understand such ridiculous, unfounded statements such as this.

So because Roger is running out of time (ie getting old, therefore declining and only half the player that he used to be) he will most definitely reach the latter stages?

Pray tell me what your logic is. Is it that tennis has suddenly become a game of pure desire and will? Roger wants it so bad and his time is running out, so he therefore becomes a shoe-in for the final. Erm, what about the rest of the field? Do they have a say? What about his abysmal form, for the most part, this year, does that matter at all? Of course not; Roger wants to go out with a bang, therfore he will DEFINITELY reach the latter stages.



ps. I do agree that Roger is still a threat, just don't think it's a case of him just willfully turning it on and off as he pleases.
pps. That facepalm emoticon is the ugliest one on the board. I really didn't want to use it, but I could think of no better way to respond to this moronic prediction.

May the serve be with you.

Yes, a fit and healthy Djokovic would definitely be favourite. He deserves that tag. The others have been waiting for a crack in his armour and there will be eyes on him to see how he responds.

For Djokovic I don't think it really mattered whether he won or lost against Murray, but for Murray it was absolutely huge to get that win, despite the circumstances. For patches Djokovic was playing well, and Murray stayed with him. Murray looked like a player who had played less matches, and he looked like he believed he could beat him from the start. I never got that impression in Australia.

Then again, he always looks to have that belief in masters events. He has it in slams a lot of the time too, just not in the 3 finals he's reached! If the real Murray had showed up in the slam finals, we may already be talking about a multi slam winner.

I think it comes down to his serve. If he can get his first serve at 65% + then he would be flying. He competes against the top 3 with waaay poorer serving statistics. That's the area he needs firing to win a slam. I think a Murray with 65% - 70% first serves in would be incredibly difficult for anyone to beat. Whether that's consistently possible with his service motion I'm not sure.

Believe it or not emancipator someone else has said that Federer's FO and Wimbledon victories in 2009 was won by will and desire on another thread. 3 guesses who it was.

emancipator wrote:

sportslover wrote:For me the dark horse who shouldn't be written off is Federer.

He is running out of time and really must want to go out on a high, so he will most definitely be there near the latter stages.

Having said all that I hope Murray can make it, he has been there before and should be in with a good shout.

However "banana skins" will be there for all and there maybe a surprise amongst them.

I really can't understand such ridiculous, unfounded statements such as this.

So because Roger is running out of time (ie getting old, therefore declining and only half the player that he used to be) he will most definitely reach the latter stages?

Pray tell me what your logic is. Is it that tennis has suddenly become a game of pure desire and will? Roger wants it so bad and his time is running out, so he therefore becomes a shoe-in for the final. Erm, what about the rest of the field? Do they have a say? What about his abysmal form, for the most part, this year, does that matter at all? Of course not; Roger wants to go out with a bang, therfore he will DEFINITELY reach the latter stages.



ps. I do agree that Roger is still a threat, just don't think it's a case of him just willfully turning it on and off as he pleases.
pps. That facepalm emoticon is the ugliest one on the board. I really didn't want to use it, but I could think of no better way to respond to this moronic prediction.

May the serve be with you.

Probably for the first time, and possibly for the last, I happen to agree with Boo on this one: motivation is important, and if you are Roger Federer,it is probably even more so

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:

emancipator wrote:

sportslover wrote:For me the dark horse who shouldn't be written off is Federer.

He is running out of time and really must want to go out on a high, so he will most definitely be there near the latter stages.

Having said all that I hope Murray can make it, he has been there before and should be in with a good shout.

However "banana skins" will be there for all and there maybe a surprise amongst them.

I really can't understand such ridiculous, unfounded statements such as this.

So because Roger is running out of time (ie getting old, therefore declining and only half the player that he used to be) he will most definitely reach the latter stages?

Pray tell me what your logic is. Is it that tennis has suddenly become a game of pure desire and will? Roger wants it so bad and his time is running out, so he therefore becomes a shoe-in for the final. Erm, what about the rest of the field? Do they have a say? What about his abysmal form, for the most part, this year, does that matter at all? Of course not; Roger wants to go out with a bang, therfore he will DEFINITELY reach the latter stages.



ps. I do agree that Roger is still a threat, just don't think it's a case of him just willfully turning it on and off as he pleases.
pps. That facepalm emoticon is the ugliest one on the board. I really didn't want to use it, but I could think of no better way to respond to this moronic prediction.

May the serve be with you.

Probably for the first time, and possibly for the last, I happen to agree with Boo on this one: motivation is important, and if you are Roger Federer,it is probably even more so

Of course motivation is important.

Do you see anyone arguing to the contrary?

However, there is a world of difference between that statement and claiming that simply because Roger knows that his time is running out, his motivation will be extra high and thus he will definitely reach the latter stages. It may improve his chances but certainly wont make it a certainty, especially if his game stays at the level it has been at recently. No amount of motivation will get him to the final if he's not striking the ball cleanly. If on the other hand SL stated that Roger will be extra motivated because he knows his time at the top is running out AND if he plays his best tennis he will definitely reach the latter stages, then that is a plausible, understandable and likely scenario.

Comprende?

Emanicipator: do emancipate yourself a little bit more first!

Boo Said ( and I don't even know why I am being his acting lawyer but won't happen again I promise):

a) " For me the dark horse who shouldn't be written off is Federer": in my understanding the "dark horse" is a potential candidate, but more of an outsider than a strong favourite. How about in yours sir?

b)"He is running out of time and really must want to go out on a high, so he will most definitely be there near the latter stages".

Latter stages in my recollections means: from Semi Finals trhough to Final"
What does it mean in yours sir? Or you think Fed will not even get to the semifinal? If so give me your best quote, I'd like to bet on it

mistar emanciptorrrgrrrr

Hey JK QC - You missed the in your post - manci likes doesn't half like them

Murray's golden chance was in this years AO, after playing an OK first set he went and sulked and got hammered. I honestly think he is a better AO player than US, as we saw with his defeats to Cilic and Wawrinka, he can lose to players who are 15-20 quite comfortably. I don't expect him to go past the QF at the US if i'm being honest, guys like Tsonga and Berdych on form would beat him there

Josiah Maiestas wrote:Murray's golden chance was in this years AO, after playing an OK first set he went and sulked and got hammered. I honestly think he is a better AO player than US, as we saw with his defeats to Cilic and Wawrinka, he can lose to players who are 15-20 quite comfortably. I don't expect him to go past the QF at the US if i'm being honest, guys like Tsonga and Berdych on form would beat him there

On form Tsonga or Berdych? Not a chance. Saw what happened to Tsonga against Murray at Queens. Berdych is nowhere near level he was last year.

Murray was thumped by an inspired Djokovic and we have seen what happened after that success.

Murray I fancy to get to the Final.

LK,

Berdych has beaten both Federer and Djokovic in big slam matches, Tsonga has fought back from 2 down to eliminate Federer, these guys are giving the jitters to the 1st and 3rd ranked players in the world. When you review Murray v Tsonga at Wimbledon, Tsonga left a ball go past him which landed in, had he taken the smash he would likely have won the 2nd set tie break and would be too much for Murray.

You can't dismiss such talented players!

Josiah Maiestas wrote:LK,

Berdych has beaten both Federer and Djokovic in big slam matches, Tsonga has fought back from 2 down to eliminate Federer, these guys are giving the jitters to the 1st and 3rd ranked players in the world. When you review Murray v Tsonga at Wimbledon, Tsonga left a ball go past him which landed in, had he taken the smash he would likely have won the 2nd set tie break and would be too much for Murray.

You can't dismiss such talented players!

Your in danger of sounding like ROTA basing their performances of yesteryear. Historically at the US Berdych hasn't go past the 4th round and as same as Tsonga.

I can dismiss them as you have Murray's chances.

You can't dismiss quality players like Tsonga of course, but Murray has a 5-2 record against him for a reason. He has beaten him 4 consecutive times for a reason, because his game matches up well and he knows how to play him.

Berdych at his best would be more of a worry, Murray can struggle against him at times. Berdych seems less troubled by Murray's variety than some of the other big hitters (like DelPo and Tsonga) but I'd still expect him to beat him on a hard court.

You can't dismiss these players of course, but you can't dismiss Murray either. Assuming that his best chance has already come and gone is a very strange thing to say being as he's having his best year ever now (slam wise). That suggests improvement, not regression.

legendkillar wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:LK,

Berdych has beaten both Federer and Djokovic in big slam matches, Tsonga has fought back from 2 down to eliminate Federer, these guys are giving the jitters to the 1st and 3rd ranked players in the world. When you review Murray v Tsonga at Wimbledon, Tsonga left a ball go past him which landed in, had he taken the smash he would likely have won the 2nd set tie break and would be too much for Murray.

You can't dismiss such talented players!

Your in danger of sounding like ROTA basing their performances of yesteryear. Historically at the US Berdych hasn't go past the 4th round and as same as Tsonga.

I can dismiss them as you have Murray's chances.

The 2 mentioned players are more confident in attacking than Andy is, I would always select the more confident attacker in a hard court match. Murray's main weapon is to try and make the opponent miss, so he's basically relying on them being off target.

"basing their performances of yesteryear" What else would I base it on if you don't mind me asking?

[quote="Josiah Maiestas"]

legendkillar wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:LK,

Berdych has beaten both Federer and Djokovic in big slam matches, Tsonga has fought back from 2 down to eliminate Federer, these guys are giving the jitters to the 1st and 3rd ranked players in the world. When you review Murray v Tsonga at Wimbledon, Tsonga left a ball go past him which landed in, had he taken the smash he would likely have won the 2nd set tie break and would be too much for Murray.

You can't dismiss such talented players!

Your in danger of sounding like ROTA basing their performances of yesteryear. Historically at the US Berdych hasn't go past the 4th round and as same as Tsonga.

I can dismiss them as you have Murray's chances.

The 2 mentioned players are more confident in attacking than Andy is, I would always select the more confident attacker in a hard court match. Murray's main weapon is to try and make the opponent miss, so he's basically relying on them being off target.

"basing their performances of yesteryear" What else would I base it on if you don't mind me asking?[/quote]

So picking 2 guys who have never got beyond the 4th round against someone who has made the final? Interesting.

I wouldn't fancy Berdych or Tsonga against Murray in any form. Berdych and Tsonga maybe as far as 4th Round and thats about it for me in terms of their progress. There are much better hard court players than Tsonga and Berdych. Del Potro, Roddick (if in form) to name 2.

Roddick

The guy hasn't had a baseline game for 3 or 4 years... whilst Tsonga-Berdych haven't had flattering results at the US they come here on a decent run, this time i'm sure history won't repeat itself and 1 or maybe both players will get to atleast the QF this time around.

Now on to Roddick... that guy wouldn't even win in the wheelchair singles event (having the advantage of his legs!!) The only race Roddick is in is the race for retirement, between himself and Nalbandian!

Hence why I said if in form. To win the event? Not a chance. At best he could get to the QF's if he found form. He accepts defeat quicker in matches than of anyone on tour at the moment.

Can't see Berdych or Tsonga offering much.

Hoping for a surprise contender.

Can't see murray being too worried about Berdy or Tsonga. He knows how to beat them, I think the quarter he would least like to see would probably be Fish. Fish and him are 4-4 h2h, and fish has won 3 of the last 4 matchups. Fish would have the benefit of homecourt advantage and the kind of net rushing and aggressive style that would give Andy Murray problems. Murray's big yardstick will ofcourse be the semi where he will have to play either Nadal or Djoko most likely that is where he will have to prove his mettle.