Isn`t Hindsight Great

by emack2 Sun 28 Aug 2011, 6:56 pm

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/sport/5520922/All-Blacks-a-different-beast-at-home-under-their-security-blanket
from todays Domion Post an article by Justin Marshall comments

OPINION: Call me mad. Dub me naive. Christen me crazy if you like.

Just don't label me panicky for I refuse to fret about the All Blacks' recent losses to South Africa and Australia.

I realise I just alienated a large chunk of you in that last sentence. Many of you will be apoplectic with rage after seeing the Blacks go down again on Saturday.

But my belief in the team is founded on the fact they are an entirely different animal at home.

I don't know why.

They just are.

I feel and wrestle with doubt too.

And if I am honest I have had my fair share of concerns in recent days.

Graham Henry spoke this week about instilling "enthusiasm" back in his side and said it was one of the reasons why he gave several of his key players rests in recent weeks.

That's why in Brisbane it was a tad distressing that the Wallabies were more energised and played with a higher level of emotional intensity.

The All Blacks weathered this onslaught and eventually gained the ascendancy but it was too little too late.

After halftime and a meeting with the coaches, remedial action was taken and the All Blacks started to commit more bodies to the breakdown.

But in many ways the All Blacks' fate was sealed before kickoff.

Robbie Deans was out-coached in Auckland but he returned the compliment with interest in Brisbane.

Deans cooked up a tasty tactical recipe and the All Blacks were unable to blunt the onslaught.

It just goes to show how important their role is going to be come late October.

Whoever has the most nimble and innovative coaching brain will have a major influence on which country has its name etched on the Webb Ellis Cup.

I still think Henry and his charges can do it.

But in recent weeks they have not helped themselves.

We talk a lot about controlling the controllables in sport. One controllable Henry let slip was picking an under-strength side in South Africa.

He should never have done that. South Africa now has its tail up, so do Australia, and the rest of the world also know the All Blacks are eminently beatable.

Perception is huge in sport.

We Kiwis always knew the All Blacks were as vulnerable as any team.

We have learned that the hard way at countless World Cups. But now France, England and Ireland do too. It's why the All Blacks now have to be a different beast at home.

Eden Park has this security blanket that envelops them and inspires them to great deeds. It seems to also bring out the worst in other sides. Again, I don't know why. It just does.

Hence as a pundit I'm fairly sanguine about the All Blacks' chances.

They did enough during the Tri-Nations – without winning it – to suggest they are ready, willing and able to create history. Now is the time then to ooze determination and intelligence; two qualities the Wallabies had in spades on Saturday night.

by Taylorman Sun 28 Aug 2011, 7:24 pm

The articles good and correct but I don't understand the hindsight part. Been saying for weeks one of the keys to our world cup is Eden Park.

That hasnt changed. We also said the Brisbane result has nothing to do with the world cup. Henry and Deans both said it, both before and then confirmed it after the match.

Where's the hindsight?

by emack2 Sun 28 Aug 2011, 7:58 pm

For want of abetter word.

by Gatts Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:11 pm

Taylorman wrote:The articles good and correct but I don't understand the hindsight part. Been saying for weeks one of the keys to our world cup is Eden Park.

That hasnt changed. We also said the Brisbane result has nothing to do with the world cup. Henry and Deans both said it, both before and then confirmed it after the match.

Where's the hindsight?

TM...please explain...why doesn't the brisbane result have anything to do with RWC? (aside form Eden park effect)

by Taylorman Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:20 pm

Hi Gatts,

The 3N are always closely fought battles. The Brisbane match was about the 3N. It was a result of an odd series where half squads were picked (with the exception of Oz) and travel was involved. All squads though had one eye on the world cup. The world cup is a whole new kettle of fish. No travel, complete focus on the one event and for us, its at home where we are MUCH harder to beat. Brisbane had none of that for us. Whether we'd won it or lost it it wouldn't have made any difference come world cup time, except for us it provides some motivation- a revenge factor- that we don't normally have the luxury of having.

Alan,
Henry has come out and admitted the team was flat due to the late coming together (half in SA, half in NZ, Brissy) where Oz had 2 weeks at home as a build up so what looked like a relaxed easy build up for NZ was anything but.

Despite what appeared to be a troublesome week for Oz prior to the test its clear that had a much better buildup. They were more focused, hungrier and most of all, prepared.

Your reasons for taking the full squad to SA were different but perhaps the effect would have been that we'd have had a better chance. But that would be detracting from the Oz performance so its pointless now.

The difference now is the decks are cleared. No more travel worries or dual tournaments to worry about. Thorne and Thompson's injuries are a bit concerning but other than that things are looking good. AB's will be able to tune in, learn from losses- that's the best part. Theyre better at learning and coming back from losses than finding motivation to keep winning when they always are.

They'll probably still be favorites but not quite as firm any longer.

by **Biltong** Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:24 pm

Of course the Brisbain result matters. It matters to those Ozzie players who has been having the hisotry of losing 10 in a row and now have won in Hong Kong and Brisabaine, that is two wins they didn't have until a year ago.

Now they have belief.

It is the same with the SA test, no matter whether it wasn't the best 15 on the field, as Victor Matfield said, "we'll take the win".

by emack2 Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:28 pm

Which is Justin Marshalls point A team would probably have beaten the Boks,the pressure would have been off and the 3Ns in NZ.

by aucklandlaurie Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:34 pm

with the benefits of my 20/20 hindsight,the last two weeks have shown me that South Africa has the forward pack most likely to dominate (when they play their hooker) and Australia have the highest calibre backs ,giving them the ability to spilt and strech any other team.
Yes, the Brisbane test does matter,as Biltong says to the Australians and it should do also to the ABs,if it doesn't,it should.

by fa0019 Sun 28 Aug 2011, 8:42 pm

The NZ press are not exactly going to say... oh no we lost in our final match to Aus before the RWC.... thats really important.

Whichever way the game went it wouldn't have been a disaster... everyone always puts an optimistic view on it.

Win and it pretty much put mental control over Aus.. i.e. if you can't win at home what chance at our home?
Lose and well we're still world no.1, at home and all our KO matches whether we qualify 1st or 2nd in our pool will be at Eden Park.... a place where we haven't lost for near 20 years or something.

I just looked and it says that 6 of the 8 KO matches will be played at Eden Park... going to be tough work on the groundsman thats for sure. Obviously this is in part due to the earthquake in Christchurch but still its a hevy burden for the specific rugby field itself to deal with.... you don't want your final being played on what ends up like hackney marshes on a Monday because a brutal (unlikely) 3rd place playoff was played the day before.

Surely they should have used another stadium for the 3rd place match?

Anyhow.. personally I think NZ made a mistake by not taking Carter & McCaw to SA...they could have wrapped up the 3N there and then... but more importantly... by losing to both SA & Aus they gave them both optimism for the RWC... something both would not really have had if they lost at home to NZ.

I guess we'll see over the course of the RWC.... Henry is a good coach and I'm sure he weighed up the options.... potential injury to my most important players vs. slightly weak side to SA who should still be competitive.
If Aus had been 4 points down in the 3N ladder come this weekend past rather than on level pegging I'm certain they wouldn't have been competing so intensely.... it means more when there is more at stake.

If either SA or Aus beat NZ to the title you can be sure the captain in the post match interview will say.... 'in PE/Brisbane etc etc that is where we gained the belief that we could beat these guys'.

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 2:29 am

"
If either SA or Aus beat NZ to the title you can be sure the captain in the post match interview will say.... 'in PE/Brisbane etc etc that is where we gained the belief that we could beat these guys'."

and equally if we'd beaten both Oz and SA then 'everyone' will have said...dont NZ know the winner of the 3N never wins a world cup in the same year as the 3N, or worse..

NZ shouldnt have taken Carter and McCaw to SA- as they got injured and NZ couldnt replace them... or...we'll never know.

many many more I can think of...

My gut feel is in terms of the winning of the World cup these two losses are more likely to be a good thing.

AB's learn from losses better than most and GH and co once settled back in NZ will take those two losses apart and break them down to their tiniest bits to ensure they have the right gameplan- intensity being the very first thing on the list I would expect.

At the same time they'll use them for gaining motivational and battling for underdog status in the press.

Just shows it really is all a game...

by Rob B Mon 29 Aug 2011, 2:59 am

I think any side losing a very big test 2 weeks before the sart of the cup will try and find the positives - ie kick in the pants, we will learn, no complacency etc. Putting the vagaries of this years 3N to one side, the bottom line this was a very big test on the weekend - the winner of the 3N might not matter much this year but the winner of that test was a big deal- it matters no matter which way you slice the lemon.

ABs were desperate to keep the foot on the throat of W and maintain the psychological advantage over the W. Even before the game, Read said no way they want to let W off the hook so close to the cup. They knew it was a huge game; they fronted up with their best side; they knew W would be more physical; ABs were fully prepared for it - they really cannot point to where they let themselves down in terms of poor play. So while they will take positives - on a net basis ABs will be worse for this IMO relative to possible fronting W again in the final (should that happen) - because W will be the better for it. W are a confidence side - no way ABs would want to be adding fuel to that. It is not the lead in to the Cup the ABs wanted. GH messed up strategically in Sa. There were no excuses though in Brisbane.

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:02 am

Not disagreeing Rob, there's just two sides to the coin. There are advantages at our end in us both winning and losing. Yes it was bad, yes we should have won, yes Oz would be in a much worse position compared to NZ but we didn't. We're over it, what else can we do but go forward.

We have won so many 3N's that this year it isnt as important to us- thats just the way it feels and I'd say the 'grieving process' here will be very quick under the circumstances.

If we had beaten SA and Oz we will have been in the same position we go into most world cups- nigh unbeatable, may as well not turn up etc...- been there done that, so for us having that winning edge in most world cups did us squat.

Last world cup we beat France 2 months before we lost to them 61-10! and won the 3N. France beat us then Aus and SA both finished ahead of us.

Of course its not the lead up we wanted but I believe in the end it'll serve us better. One because it has to, and two because the reverse hasnt ever helped.

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:22 am

Hi Taylorman

I think this year's 3Ns was more important than any other as

1. Its RWC year...in 2 weeks
2. You lost it when favourites
3. Highlighted ABs dealing with pressure

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:23 am

...meant to add, and more importantly- its psychologically advantageous to be in the position we are at the moment.

Look at Oz, they learnt from Eden Park big time- came back, and near thumped us.
You can use a last loss for motivation in a much more practical way than you can a win. the need to perform is real, Oz showed that.

Next time if Oz are even remotely thinking oh we beat them last time, we can do it again, they'll be smashed. We certainly won't be thinking that...how can we?..we lost the last match.

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:25 am

Gatts,
Disagree...
So how does that relate to 2007 when exactly the opposite happened? we won it then? Or doesnt that count?

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:28 am

And that psychology might stand ABs in good stead....they have carried that unbeatable label into so many RWC and folded....now they got a big wake up and as Yamamoto said after the attack on Pearl Harbour...

'I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve'

Or something like that

Much more importnat than the EP unbeatable stats...NZ passion for the win, something us Welshists understand very well

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:30 am

I'm confused, i surrender. Folded under pressure...You get my point i think

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:36 am

All good.
Its not a biggie.
All I'm saying is at home, at Eden Park, having lost to SA and Oz recently, we have the right ingredients to win 3 knockout matches there.

The loss of the 3N will in no way play on the AB minds come knockout. Different set of circumstances. Plus we won well at Eden Park 3 weeks ago against the same team so its not as if a huge gap has been created.

Yes the sleeping giant thing is really all I mean. Henry will use it to his absolute max and I reckon he'll get more out of them with that loss.

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:38 am

Which is, correct me if wrong, a first for NZ going into RWC....big dip in form, no longer odds on favourites.

Then you add EP stat and we are all fupped

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 4:44 am

God i will be so glad when they win it and we don't have to harp on about chokers anymore, but they'll be nothing left to talk about!!

by Full Credit Mon 29 Aug 2011, 5:42 am

I don't envy the AB's at this part of the 4 year cycle. If they don't win it's not because they were beaten but because they choked. Under what set of circumstances would it be possible for NZ to not win this WC and not be considered chokers? If another team were to play near perfect rugby and sink NZ in extra time with a field goal, most would still say they choked because they didn't get up for it.

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 5:51 am

Full Credit wrote:I don't envy the AB's at this part of the 4 year cycle. If they don't win it's not because they were beaten but because they choked. Under what set of circumstances would it be possible for NZ to not win this WC and not be considered chokers? If another team were to play near perfect rugby and sink NZ in extra time with a field goal, most would still say they choked because they didn't get up for it.

Couldn't agree more and until a week ago it was theirs to lose

Huge huge presssure on them and that home advantage adds to it, more expectation.

I truly hope for the sake of rugby that they do it but have a battle royal to get there

Or that Wales win which of course they will!

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 6:26 am

Wales do have a tough one dont they gatts. I backed them all through the 6N and they just didnt fire.
This going across the field and back monotonously drove me nuts.
I didn catch much of the warmups. How are they looking?

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 6:37 am

it's true they do.

Did ok at Twix but were awesome and clinical in Cardiff and convincing v Argues...but tested? No not really, England were dismal.

Without Rees, Jenkins and a lineout we are stuffed v SA.

But they are brimming with confidence behind a world class skipper.

They have a stunning backline if they can keep possession on the front foot and some ball carriers to punch holes.

They are fitter than ever and this combined with their ability to open up in th elast 3rd means they will compete for 80 minutes.

They have stopped losing games in the first 15 minutes

In North they have try scoring machine, in Shane and hook game breakers.

Philipps sharper than ever

Faletau/Warbs and Lydiate a back row which will be as well known as Hill/Dayglo/Back

Issues with centre creativity but solid defensively.

Their weakness is the front row and physicality at the breakdown as well as injuries.

They will miss Henson

They need to make their own luck this RWC, if they perform v SA and beat Samoa and Fiji then i think playing Aus in the 1/4 will be a close game.

England in the semi

NZ in the final

See you there Very Happy

by **Biltong** Mon 29 Aug 2011, 6:59 am

I agree England were clueless at times, and didn't look like they new what to do with possession, the problem for Wales is if they have a slittle possession as they had against England they will struggle against big teams.

As far as Henson is concerned, I can't see why Wales will miss him, they have been doing it without him for some time already.

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 7:07 am

Cool. Love the confidence.
The samoa game may be the clincher.
Tough draw. Youll know if youre through after the second match. Bit tough to start like that. SA then samoa.
Man. Good luck. Will definitely be watchong those two.

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 7:58 am

Here are my unmissable games
10th: Eng v Arg - decide group?
11th: SA v Wal - likewise
16th: SA v Fiji - If Wales did SA the Fijians would throw everything at this
17th: Aus v Ire - thought it would decide group...now think it may be a rout
18th: Fr v Can, - long story but them Canucks hate les Bleus and just did ok v Aussie B. Wal v Sam - So we thought Fiji were the problem....
24th: NZ v Fr - ohh la fricking la. Sam v Fiji - wish i had 3d tv for this one
25th: Arg v Scot - decide ru
30th: Fr v Tonga - say France capitulate to NZ.....
1st:: Eng v Scot - Scots raise their game more than any other home nation
2nd: Ire v Ita - just to see italian girls in stands. Wal v Fiji - to decide winner of group!!

by Taylorman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 8:29 am

I reckon japan are going to be a niusance.
Jk had set them a goal of 2 wins. Tonga and canada. I'm looking forward to the french japan game as well.
The samoa wales game is going to be a cracker.
Especially with the crowd sellout in hamilton after the samoan oz win.

by Gatts Mon 29 Aug 2011, 8:39 am

Yes just seen Japan USA post so adding Japan France and Japan NZ to the list.

Samoa make me nervous, so do Fiji, so do SA but no matter

We are going to win.

by majesticimperialman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 8:45 am

Every one keeps talking about Eden Park.

Do the Abs play all their games there or is it Eden Park where the Final will be played?

I think the Abs did the wrong thing by not sending their full team to both SA and Aus, Yes i know injurie to certain player/s would be deverstating for the Abs(Carter Mccaw) but has it has been stated before you cannot keep wrapping the players in cotton wool.

With the RWC being played in NZ every body seems to think that Abs will not be under any pressure at all...I disagree i think their will be more pressure on the Abs to win espescialy infront on the home crowd.

Graham Henery did a similar thing in 2007 with player rotation, resting player/s at certain times to give all his players a chance to prove them selves...Surely he(Henry)had plenty of chances before this years triantions to rotate the Ab squad.

I personaly would of thought that the Abs would want to go into this RUGBY WORLD CUP winning every trophy they could, including the Triantions.

So what with not sending the full squad to SA and Aus, they have now given both teams the motivation they needed to go on and win the RWC.

by **Biltong** Mon 29 Aug 2011, 8:53 am

Gatts if you don't want to know what happens in this world cup then don't read any further.

Pool deciders.

Pool A
NZ 24 - FRA 17.
FRA 27 - TON 17
FRA 29 - CAN 13

Pool B
ENG 27 - ARG 15
ENG 28 - SCO 13
SCO 19 - ARG 15

Pool C
AUS 25 - IRE 19
IRE 28 - ITA 16

Pool D
SA 29 - WAL 20
WAL 31 - SAM 32
WAL 28 - FIJ 22

Quarter Finals

SA 22 - IRE 18
AUS 31 - WAL 21
NZ 38 - SCO 13
ENG 17 - FRA 15

Semi Finals
NZ 24 - SA 18
AUS 19 - ENG 12

Final
NZ 20 - AUS 18

Told you not to read further.

by Cowshot Mon 29 Aug 2011, 9:31 am

Enjoying this thread on hindsight before the event. Wink

England have a lucky draw this time with the Saffers and Kiwis in the other half (probably, according to seeding, and looking forward with hindsight).

It's just as well, because we're still behind where we'd hope to be going to a WC by a year maybe two, at least in part because our board has been behaving like a bunch of spoiled children for several years. Get rid of the stuffed shirts and you get ego driven empire builders instead. mad

We're hopeful, of course, that having beaten France and Aus recently we can do so again at the WC and reach the final to meet (probably) NZ, whom we have never beaten in a WC, but who themselves have never won one. If that happens it'll be a battle of the chokers and possibly the funniest game ever for the neutral countries as the ball goes everywhere except where it should.

If we meet SA (it's traditional after all) it'll be one heck of a game. Probably SA to win, as we are still a bit raw, but hey, if we ran them so close with our ragged bunch last time, this years' crop of slightly too olds and slightly too youngs has a fair shot! Smile

by **Biltong** Mon 29 Aug 2011, 9:34 am

Cowshot wrote:If we meet SA (it's traditional after all) it'll be one heck of a game. Probably SA to win, as we are still a bit raw, but hey, if we ran them so close with our ragged bunch last time, this years' crop of slightly too olds and slightly too youngs has a fair shot!

You can be sure SA won't play risky rugby in a final, so will be a close match either way, unless of coaurse they feel confident and balst england off the park ( but then we both know that isn't going to happen.)

by Cowshot Mon 29 Aug 2011, 10:11 am

You can be sure SA won't play risky rugby in a final, so will be a close match either way, unless of coaurse they feel confident and balst england off the park ( but then we both know that isn't going to happen.)

I really have no idea how England would play in that situation. This squad is very much a work in progress and a lot of us here feel we are behind where we'd ideally like to be going into a World Cup. Certainly when you compare with the White Orcs.

We have a dangerous tight five, and some very talented players. But our back row is not settled, nor anywhere else on the pitch as far as I can see. I really don't know what they can produce.

And despite my blythe assertion that we will reach the final, Australia are much improved and or had an off game against us, and France are at their most dangerous when written off. In all seriousness, we'll do well to get to the final.

by **Biltong** Mon 29 Aug 2011, 10:18 am

I don't think chances are good that we will meet each other in the final either way.

We both can beat our semi final opposition, but chances that we both make it will border on the amazing.

by Cowshot Mon 29 Aug 2011, 10:39 am

It's very unlikely we'll go out in the pools. After that anything can happen. I'm very glad we won in Ireland last week becuse Argentina and Scotland aren't pushovers. Well Scotland might be, but on their day they can do in virtually anyone, as both of us know. We're going to need all the confidence we can get.

I think what is exciting as an England supporter is that there is a lot of talent in this squad and I think they have the potential to win a World Cup. It's just that I'll be a bit surprised if it's this one.

by Frank The APC Mon 29 Aug 2011, 1:20 pm

I once knew a wise man that said - "Hindsight is the foresight of a Gobshite"

by majesticimperialman Mon 29 Aug 2011, 1:45 pm

Frank The APC wrote:I once knew a wise man that said - "Hindsight is the foresight of a Gobshite"

His name isnt The GreyGhoist is it? Yahoo

by Frank The APC Mon 29 Aug 2011, 2:08 pm

majesticimperialman wrote:
Frank The APC wrote:I once knew a wise man that said - "Hindsight is the foresight of a Gobshite"

His name isnt The GreyGhoist is it?

Not The Grey im afraid - I said it was a 'wise' man. Keep up will ya!! Laugh

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