RWC 2011 revised

About to go sailing for a week so thought i would add a supplement to my first 606v2 effort

I had been convinced of an Eng v NZ final but now I am not so sure.

What have we learned in the last week or two.

Sh1t loads

NZ aren't invincible, Boks are hungry and Wallabies are champions.

Wales say they will win and seem to believe it, Ireland are in disarray and France may repeat in rugby the same world cup debacle they managed at football. England have found their talisman and even if he is a one hit wonder it is pretty good timing to have solved your centre crisis. Italy, Scotland and Argentina, Samoa and Fiji also have a distinct opportunity to make the quarters at least

Fact is i still think Eng will get to the final but i now wonder if, irrespective of home advantage, they will face NZ.

Roll on RWC 2011.

Mate, I think you hit the nail on the head. A few months ago, many people went out and annointed the ABs champions before the RWC had kicked off. I still think the ABs are good favourites, but there could be a number of upsets and unexpected winners and losers in this RWC. Makes it interesting, eh? No team is perfect........

Personally don’t think we’ve learned very much more.

We always knew the Kiwis are beatable, home or away, and we’ve known for years they’re beatable at a RWC. The Saffers still look favourite to meet them in the semis and it’s still highly likely they will lose to them.

The Wallabies by virtue of still looking likely to beat the Irish still look likely to be playing either the English or the French in the semi.

The Welsh still have a decent chance of going out in the pool rounds.

The Kiwis are still favourites to lift the cup and you still wouldn’t put your house on them.

What’s changed?

Well, nothing really changed but we did get some confirmation that our expectations are and were the same.

Well learning is subjective.

I was expecting a boring black wash at RWC.

But NZ have been rocked

The Aussies rocked them and they would love to cross the water and upset the party, seems they just made a big statement

Meanwhile Saffers just sat up for the first time in ages

England just solved a centre crisis in a manner that might not be what we thought it would be last autumn but will be very effective

Ireland are crumbling in front of us

Italy must be thinking they could beat them

France just effectively sacked lieveremont

Scotland are being quietly consistent

And all of this is academic because Wales will win, or so they tell us

Gatts wrote:And all of this is academic because Wales will win, or so they tell us

I rather think the two losses for NZ- especially the one vs. the Wallabies and the loss of the 3N trophy- will perhaps serve as the wake-up call they needed. They certainly won't be complacent now.

Just to add a little perspective from my own twisted point of view, I don't think one or two matches is enough to cause radical changes in the pecking order.

Yes, the ABs lost two in a row, but I wouldn't think they are about to lie down and get steamrolled. Nor does this make the Wallabies sudden favourites. England may have upgraded their centres, but that is only one match, and Ireland looked poor in that match. I am still not sure what the Boks are about at the moment, but somehow I expect them to come good in the RWC, I do not feel good about Wales and even more so about Ireland. And I expected more from Ireland, so hopefully they can pull themselves together.

NZ may be rocked but they will play every one of their games at Eden Park.... a place where they have failed to lose in over 16 years.

That is a record & a half and it will take a mighty effort for anyone to beat NZ at Eden Park.

Aus have shown they can beat NZat home.... its a whole different ball game away.

Aus are still highly vunerable to a top class pack... France, Ireland, Wales & England all have these and will put Aus on the backfoot if they meet in the KO stages... Cooper, Pocock et al won't be as effective when they are playing off scraps.

I still see Aus as potential champions but they will have to find a way of combating this issue....please don't anyone mention how SA struggles vs. Aus in the scrum in Durban... it only occurred when Smit was playing tighthead.

New Zealand with Dan Carter are just too tough on their home turf and must be strong favorites. Only chance they won't be in the final is if Dan the Man is injured. He is the Messi of Rugby and the most influential player for the All Blacks. Things happen at World Cups which throw previous form out of the window. Despite poor warm up matches I can still see Ireland causing an upset. Even without Wallace they will have a world class back row. Waikato man, Boss may be the man to start at No. 9. He is used to playing with Sexton and brings a physicality to the position that Reddan lacks. England flattered to deceive in their 20-9 win in Dublin I feel. I can see them struggling against both the Pumas and Scots. I would not be counting chickens yet.

How can you talk up the chances of Ireland and then in the same breath talk down England?
On what do you base that?

Ireland lost two top back row forwards early, were missing O'Driscoll and European player of the year O'Brien, started their No 2 out half and No 2 Full Back and lost Cian Healy also through injury. Having watched England against Wales and Ireland I have not been impressed. Tuilagi will not get away with shoulder charges in New Zealand. I am not talking down England merely stating the obvious. The Tri Nations sides are all better. Gatts seems to think England are bound to reach the final. England do not have the back row they had in 2003 or even 2007. A world class back row is essential to have any chance in New Zealand.

Accepted, but they still manage to grind out wins, something I haven't seen Ireland do.

And I am not talking about only the one match vs england.

I have a feeling that England will get a bit over confident and will come unstuck, either against the physicality and flair of the French in the 1/4s, or Aus will do what Ireland did in the 6N and run them ragged in the semis. Though, I think they will beat Argentina and Scotland, although its possible they will lose to onw of those aswell if they underestimate either.

England will have just as much of a challenge to get out of their group as Wales or Ireland do.

I don't think any team in this world cup will under estimate any other team, they all saw what happened in 2007.

gats,
who are all these people telling us wales will win the world cup? there's a few dozen welsh who post regularly on this forum and i haven't heard many of them saying wales will win ,the welsh press have not stated they will win,the welsh players likewise,no one i know inside or outside of work thinks wales will win,so who are all these people who keep telling us wales will win the world cup?

EggbertEnglishman wrote:New Zealand with Dan Carter are just too tough on their home turf and must be strong favorites. Only chance they won't be in the final is if Dan the Man is injured. He is the Messi of Rugby and the most influential player for the All Blacks. Things happen at World Cups which throw previous form out of the window. Despite poor warm up matches I can still see Ireland causing an upset. Even without Wallace they will have a world class back row. Waikato man, Boss may be the man to start at No. 9. He is used to playing with Sexton and brings a physicality to the position that Reddan lacks. England flattered to deceive in their 20-9 win in Dublin I feel. I can see them struggling against both the Pumas and Scots. I would not be counting chickens yet.

Agree - if DC gets injured their team is history in this RWC. One trick pony - absolutely no depth at 10 and 7 - the most important spots on the side. Can't agree with Ireland - they are terrible - italy will probably beat them at this rate.

Rob B wrote:

EggbertEnglishman wrote:New Zealand with Dan Carter are just too tough on their home turf and must be strong favorites. Only chance they won't be in the final is if Dan the Man is injured. He is the Messi of Rugby and the most influential player for the All Blacks. Things happen at World Cups which throw previous form out of the window. Despite poor warm up matches I can still see Ireland causing an upset. Even without Wallace they will have a world class back row. Waikato man, Boss may be the man to start at No. 9. He is used to playing with Sexton and brings a physicality to the position that Reddan lacks. England flattered to deceive in their 20-9 win in Dublin I feel. I can see them struggling against both the Pumas and Scots. I would not be counting chickens yet.

Agree - if DC gets injured their team is history in this RWC. One trick pony - absolutely no depth at 10 and 7 - the most important spots on the side. Can't agree with Ireland - they are terrible - italy will probably beat them at this rate.

I fear you're right. I'd also add Keiran Read and possibly Owen Franks to the almost irreplaceable list. And Reid is already out for most of the pool games . On the flip side I think Australia could manage without Cooper, but Genia and Pocock are almost indispensible.

EggbertEnglishman wrote:Ireland lost two top back row forwards early, were missing O'Driscoll and European player of the year O'Brien, started their No 2 out half and No 2 Full Back and lost Cian Healy also through injury. Having watched England against Wales and Ireland I have not been impressed. Tuilagi will not get away with shoulder charges in New Zealand. I am not talking down England merely stating the obvious. The Tri Nations sides are all better. Gatts seems to think England are bound to reach the final. England do not have the back row they had in 2003 or even 2007. A world class back row is essential to have any chance in New Zealand.

What shoulder charge? England played most of the game with a second row playing flanker so the loss of Irish back row is fairly academic. We had Wilkinson at 10, usually equivalent to O'Gara who is nobody's mug for you. Your no. 2 fullback was one of your best players on the day. I'll give you O'Brian and O'Driscoll missing being a problem, but Ireland still got beaten by France twice with those players available. Ireland are NOT looking like causing an upset at the moment, sorry. I hope they pull one of their magic performances out of the bag (like vs England in the 6N) but I don't see it at the moment. I'm not saying England are incredible or that Ireland are the worst team ever, but I think England go into the tournament with better prospects (thanks in part to the luck of the draw).

England have definitely not solved all their problems and I predict that they will scrape through in either the Argentina or (more likely) the Scotland game, but I still see them topping their group. France's bogey team is England and I can see them losing which makes an England Aus semi likely. From there I'm making no predictions.

Both are indispensable but Genia more so I think. If anything should happen to him in the pool games I think I'll find myself the nearest bridge and jump off it. Pocock hasn't seemed to have the same impact since he came back from injury earlier this year. Whether that has anything to do with it or not I don't know, maybe he's just attracting more attention. He's still everywhere but isn't effecting as many turnovers as he was.

Genia on the other hand is key to any wallaby success. He has great vision, quick distribution, and isn't afraid to boss the forwards around. If only he could cut down on those box kicks.

I expect the Kiwi's would be fine without DC if they still had the majority of their best team. No Dan would bring them back to the pack a bit, but they have too many better than average players to fall apart by losing just him.

mr-bryns-attitude wrote:gats,
who are all these people telling us wales will win the world cup? there's a few dozen welsh who post regularly on this forum and i haven't heard many of them saying wales will win ,the welsh press have not stated they will win,the welsh players likewise,no one i know inside or outside of work thinks wales will win,so who are all these people who keep telling us wales will win the world cup?

Certainly not me, though as I always have a flutter om us I would be laughing at 50/1.

I think a quarter slot is an absolute must with a semi be a bonus. Anything after that would be beyond my expectations.

mr-bryns-attitude wrote:gats,
who are all these people telling us wales will win the world cup? there's a few dozen welsh who post regularly on this forum and i haven't heard many of them saying wales will win ,the welsh press have not stated they will win,the welsh players likewise,no one i know inside or outside of work thinks wales will win,so who are all these people who keep telling us wales will win the world cup?

I think Wales will win and have said so before. it's our destiny to end the AB's dream. The Village Idiots of world rugby are about to really mess things up.

We all know the cliche about France's tendency to perform, but that doesn't seem to apply so much come the WC, they're twice runners-up and have failed to make the semi-finals only once. I've got a feeling that knowing Lievremont's reign will soon be over could see them perform to their best, the large number of quality, experienced players who are 30 or over (Dusautoir, Harinordoquy, Clerc, Heymans, Yachvili, Traille, Rougerie, Mas, Servat, Bonnaire, Nallet, Skrela, Estebanez, Poux, Marconnet, Pierre) thinking this is probably their last WC and just wanting to go out and play for themselves in the final stages. That sort of mentality from a French team is one to be feared.

i would never write of the frenchies.

also the loss to Aus will makes NZ more and more determined to win the wc, agree about lack of depth at 10 and 7 for NZ but still if nz find an average 10 who can open the rest of the backs then that should do.

mr-bryns-attitude wrote:gats,
who are all these people telling us wales will win the world cup? there's a few dozen welsh who post regularly on this forum and i haven't heard many of them saying wales will win ,the welsh press have not stated they will win,the welsh players likewise,no one i know inside or outside of work thinks wales will win,so who are all these people who keep telling us wales will win the world cup?

me mam and gran and whatever they say goes

Come on people, it's the last day of the win a Russia RWC top today, so get your entry in here, it will only take you 30 seconds...

https://www.606v2.com/t11894-win-a-signed-rwc-jersey

The problem is the too many NH fans go on and on about the invincibility of the ABs. SA, France and Aus just go about trying to beat them.. and do.

I've been saying all along Australia are the team to beat to win this World Cup.

We all know how brilliant England are at World Cups and considering the amazing talent they have available now compared to 2007 it is also very hard to see them not winning or at least coming very close.

The galling thing is,no one realistically is looking beyond past 5 finalists,and THAT is sad.In a RWC ANYONE should be able to win,in the case of a injury to Carter and McCaw.
Marty Holah at the ripe old age of 34,is still doing the business,once rated
number 2 in the world.After Ritchie McCaw,Matt Berquist,or Tony Brown.
Could also be parachuted in,people slay me Rugby is a team game,not individuals.A decent Coach will adjust his team to cope with injuries NO ONE
is indispensable.
They may well miss them but you are talking about top teams here,the other 14 need to play above themselves to compensate.