Importance of combinations for RWC.

It Is often said that combinations are key to winning rugby, Now this article is mostly about statistics, so if you are not a statistic minded person it would most likely bore you to death, I did however find some telling stats looking at which combinations seemed to have worked for the Springboks..

Front row combinations.
John Smit has played 106 tests, winning 65, losing 39, drawing 2. (62%)
Bismarck du Plessis has played 38 tests, winning 27, losing 11. (71%)
Gurthro Steenkamp has played 33 tests, winning 24, losing 9. (73%)
Beast Mtawarira has played 28 tests, winning 19, losing 9. (68%)
Jannie du Plessis has played in 26 tests, winning 19, losing 7. (73%)
Beast, John and Jannie has played 8 tests as a combination, winning 7, losing 1. (88%)
Beast, Bismarck and Jannie have played 12 tests as a combination, winning 10, losing 2. (83%)
Gurthro, Bismarck and Jannie have played only 2 tests as a combination winning 1, losing 1. (50%)
Gurthro, John and Jannie have played 9 tests as a combination, winning 5, losing 4. (56%)

Lock combination
Victor Matfield has played in 107 tests, winning 67, losing 38, drawing 2. (64%)
Bakkies Botha has played in 74 tests, winning 54, losing 17. (73%)
Victor Matfield played 67 tests with Bakkies Botha, winning 50, losing 17. (75%)
Victor Matfield has played 40 tests without Bakkies Botha, winning 17, losing 23. (43%)

Tight five combination.
Beast Mtawarira, John Smit, Jannie du Plessis, Bakkies Botha and Victor Matfield has played 8 tests as a combination winning 7, losing 1. (87.5%)
Beast Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Bakkies botha and Victor Matfield has played 11 tests as a combination, winning 9, losing 2. (82%)

Back row combination.
Schalk Burger has played 63 tests, winning 41, losing 21, drawing 1. ( 66%)
Juan Smit has played 69 tests, winning 48, losing 21. (70%)
Heinrich Brussow has played 15 tests, winning 10, losing 5. (66%)
Pierre spies has played 42 tests, winning 27, losing 15. (64%)
S Burger, Heinrich Brussow and Pierre Spies have played 5 tests, winning 4, losing 1. (80%)
S burger, Juan Smith and Pierre Spies has played 15 tests as a combination winning 9, losing 6. (66%)


Half back combination.
Fourie du Preez has played in 57 test matches winning 39, losing 17 and drawing 1. (69%)
Morne Steyn has played in 29 test matches won 16 and lost 13. (55%)
Morne Steyn played 14 tests with Fourie du Preez, winning 9. (64%)
Morne Steyn has played 15 tests without Fourie du Preez winning 7, losing 8. (47%)

Centre combination.
Jean de Villiers has played in 69 tests, winning 45, losing 23, drawing 1. (66%)
Jean de Villiers without Jaque Fourie has played in 28 tests, winning 16, drawing 1. (59%)
Jaque Fourie has played in 64 tests, winning 45, losing 19. (70%)
Jaque fourie without Jean de Villiers has played in 23 tests, winning 16, losing 7. (70%)
Fourie and de Villiers as a combination have played 41 tests, winning 29, losing 12. (71%)

Back three.
Bryan Habana has played 70 tests, winning 46, losing 23, drawing 1. (66%)
Frans Steyn has played 43 tests, winning 31, losing 12. (72%)
JP Pietersen has played 38 tests, winning 27, losing 11. (71%)
Habana, Pietersen and F Steyn have played 24 tests as a combination winning 20, losing 4. (83%)


Summary

Since the first test against the British and Irish Lions, the combination of Fourie du Preez, Morne Steyn, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen has only played 9 tests as a combination.
The Springboks played 30 tests since the British and Irish Lions tour, winning 17, losing 13. (57%)
The Springboks played 21 tests without their first choice combination, winning 10, losing 11. (48%)
This first choice combination has only played 9 tests, winning 7, losing 2. (78%)
When you add Frans Steyn into the equation, the springboks have played only 7 tests together winning 6, and the only loss was to Australia at home this year. (86%)

It is very clear from these statistics that our first choice combinations when available make a big difference to the performance of the Springbok squad. Our win percentage during Pieter de Viliers reign sits at 62%. In most cases the collective provide for much higher probability to win matches than when paired with other unsettled combinations and second choice players.

Now I admit that statistics can’t tell all, the fact is fitness, form and motivation are crucial aspects to win the Rugby world Cup, but it starts with selections.

So come on Boks, show them what you are made of.

Nice Stats.Biltong a lot of work there of course your point is that under your last 2 coaches .You had a win rates of 62%under PDV,67% under Jake White.Your average overall win rate versus all comers is about 68.5%.that
has`nt varied by more than about 3% since 1903.
That you once had the best win stats in World Rugby ,but have been gradually overtaken by the All Blacks since 1956.
By contrast the All Blacks,have stats of 76% overall,81% in the professional era.86.75%under Graham Henry.
That the Boks have lost matches to 5 of the 6Ns sides,Lions,and Argentina in there history.Even to South American Jaguars whoever they might be plus of course Nz and Australia.
By contrast the All Blacks have lost to only 3 of the 6Ns sides,Lions,SA,and Australian sides.
Much to the amusment many of the posters NZ have a poor record in RWCs.
It seems for some reason or other.They just don`t do RWCs for want of a better word.Neither it seems does any of the 6Ns sides except possibly England.
Yet to date only two of the winning sides have met and beaten the All Blacks on there way to a RWC crown.One of those was very close too,in 1999,2003,2007 they never met.
It could be said that Australia and SA ,are RWC specialists,maybe target them to make up for there lack of successes in the 3Ns and Super rugby.
Because those tournaments don`t matter,just as England and Wales fans
put Wales down.Because Wales have`nt won a RWC.when if you look at there overall history.Wins head to head,tournaments won/lost it is only 52-50 England wins,26-24 England tournaments.
Stats as you rightly say don`t tell the whole story,of course THE BOKS first
choice side in a RWC .Is to me a better bet than the All Blacks,likewise Australia.
NOT because they are superior sides[outsides RWCs] they are not but on the grounds of history ALLWAYS.
Outside a RWC at full strength,anytime,anywhere,versus anyone All Blacks every time as favourites in a RWC no way.
Get it right Biltong and the Boks will go into history as the first side to retain an RWC.
PDV or whoever the REAL coach is will be revered,whether the Sa fans like it or not.
Good luck to you I wish you well ,in the RWC,just hope that if you meet the
All Blacks.
At some stage they actully have a funny turn beat you,win the thing,and get
that Monkey of the Nations back.
EVEN though I am an All Black fan,I really would like to see some new names.On the RWC trophy but MAYBE after this one.

alan thanks for the comment, but that wasn't my point at all.

Victor Matfield is much more effective with Bakkies than without him.

Morne Steyn is much better with Fourie du Preez at his side.

I am trying to show that when in the last few years our best combinations have been available our success rate has been far superior than without them.

Without our top players we barely won 50% of our matches, which goes to show how PDV has stuffed up exposure for young guys and how he combined them.

Where as with our top players our win success rate is better than 75%.

Good article Biltongbek, Combinations are important. A Balanced backrow is more important than just taking your best 6,7,8 and throwing them together.

Combinations are very important Biltong,BUT only 2 years since 2000
the Boks exceeded 70 %.In 2007 and 2008,and many of the players then
are not in this squad now.

I'm thinking of wearing my pink and green combination for the opening ceremony - will that do?

Pot Hale of course,with the green and yellow spotted shoes?

Combinations wil be the key for the RWC and here's one of my favourites

Single Malt, Stilton and a few crackers

The only thing about player-win stats is that if you are blooding a player you are more likely to play him against the weaker teams, and therefore his win stats should be higher.

What would be more interesting would be if you chose what you believed were your best combinations, and then said which games they won playing together.

For example, Youngs and Flood at half-back beat:
Australia (A)
Australia (H)
Wales (A)
Italy (H)
France (H)
Scotland (H)

but lost to:
New Zealand (H)
South Africa (H)
Ireland (A)

Which suggests to me that (although they have a better record than Martin Johnson's overall record) they aren't good enough to win the biggest games (although Australia away was an achievement) losing to New Zealand and South Africa at home and the Grand Slam game away in Ireland.

They might be one of our better partnerships (although any partnership with Goode at 10 will take some beating...), but a big question mark remains. And with someone like Wilkinson having beaten everyone home and away, (not sure what his win % is) waiting in the wings, I'm not sure if it is the partnership I'd favour.

RoBbo you are correct, but it is a hell of a job as it is to do that research, what I can say to you is that most games these top combination played was against top teams.

The thing is under todays scheme of things,you could come of the bench,and be part of a winning team.The research is incrediblefor example
in 2007.In RWC year the Boks played 17 teams and lost 3 an 82.35 % win ratio.They lost to the All Blacks twice,Australia once,one All Blacks win was versus the A side in SA.,Then Jake White threw in the stiffs,and set the precedent of devaluing the 3Ns.
Incidentally they played England 4 times in 2007,winning all 4 ,putting over
50 point on them in the first two games.
That is one of only two years from 2000,when they averaged over a 70% win ratio,dropping to the worst42.8 % in 2010.with an overall win rate since
of 62.93%.
Incidentally playing 2 less games in the period the All Blacks overall win rate
was 85.10 %.and there worst year 2009,had same win/loss stats as the Boks,BUT that year with 3 straight wins up unti lthe end of the 3N s the Boks were the best that year.

emack you seem obsessed with the springboks . EVERY single post of yours has to have something to do with the Boks . And Jake White didnt set the precedent of devauling the Tri Nations he just did the sensible thing and rested his WC champion winning team 2 months before the world cup

biltongbek wrote:alan thanks for the comment, but that wasn't my point at all.

Victor Matfield is much more effective with Bakkies than without him.

Morne Steyn is much better with Fourie du Preez at his side.

I am trying to show that when in the last few years our best combinations have been available our success rate has been far superior than without them.

Without our top players we barely won 50% of our matches, which goes to show how PDV has stuffed up exposure for young guys and how he combined them.

Where as with our top players our win success rate is better than 75%.

Very interesting. I noticed that you picked up on Matfield's stats with/ without Botha, and M Steyn's stats with/ without du Preez, but not the other way around. Is this because Matfield and Steyn are ever-present? It would be interesting to see, for example, if, given that Steyn is better alongside du Preez, it is also true that du Preez is better alongside Steyn?

The reason why is if you look at their stats as individuals, it is marginally off from the combination.

For example if you look at Fourie du Preez in his career, he has 69% career win record, and it drops down to 64% when combinned with Morne Steyn.

I was really more looking at who's performance increases due to the combination.

biltongbek wrote:The reason why is if you look at their stats as individuals, it is marginally off from the combination.

For example if you look at Fourie du Preez in his career, he has 69% career win record, and it drops down to 64% when combinned with Morne Steyn.

I was really more looking at who's performance increases due to the combination.

Does that suggest, then, that Fourie du Preez could be more effective in partnership with another fly half? That, while he's bringing Morne Steyn's performance up, Steyn's bringing his performance down.

Do you also know SA's winning stats with/ without Morne over the last 2-3 years?

I'll have to check that for you,

Since the previous world cup we have played a total of 44 tests, Steyn played 29, without him we played 15, winning 9, thus 60%

Buls bok the question was about SA stats,I am posting a lot about the Boks,because the ALL BLACK v BOK is the greatest rivalry in rugby.
For me it still is such is my respect for them.