Good luck to all Wales supporters, hang in there!

First topic message reminder :

During the past few weeks as one of only a handful of South Africans on 606v2, I had to endure a lot of bloggers, fans, coaches and media state that the most likely upset could be a Welsh win over South Africa.

During this time I had to not only defend my team, regardless of issues about our preparation for the world cup, but also that our players are aging, out of form and their poor results for the past two years.

Wales in contrast has had a relatively good warm up during the winter tests, beating both Argentina and England, so rightfully the pundits and media alike suggested based on all these factors that Wales would be the team to cause an upset in the opening weekend.

It was a tough match, and with 60% of possession and territory Wales fans were gutted when South Africa under enormous pressure to come back from 10-16 down, to clinch a match winning try.

So call it luck, call it execution, or call it missed opportunities, the match is in the record books and Wales has to stand up and face Samoa in their next pool match.

There are two schools of thought here.

There are those that believe based on the performance Samoa put up against Australia during their warm ups, that they are motivated and too physical for Wales to contend with. Add to that the fact that they sat back on the opening weekend to assess their opponents.

The other school of thought comes from the Wales camp and supporters, and a few others including myself that Wales with their preparation, their very good performance against South Africa should be able to put Samoa way.

In my opinion Wales should be able to use the hard work they have put in to create and sustain structure on attack and defence to good use against Samoa. However there are areas which they might want to have a look at. Firstly although they were able to break the line during the second half in between Morne Steyn and Fourie du Preez, that weakness in defence will not be found in the Samoa back line. On the contrary, the physicality of the Samoa back line is likely to put pay to any thoughts of breaching the defence in that manner. Wales did not manage to get the SA defence in disarray due to the ball being cleaned out to slow by Phillips and if they want to catch the defensive organisation of Samoa out, they will have to speed up the clearing and be somewhat more direct in their approach, going side to side against Samoa as they did against SA will only result in them again losing ground with multi phase plays. Defensively Wales will have to make sure they front up physically to the Samoans, if they don’t it will be a hard day in the office, and I am sad to say, the ease that Jaque Fourie had of dispatching Shane Williams on his way to the try line should convince Gatland too put Halfpenny on the wing.

Shane at best should be seen as an impact replacement when legs get tired.

I would like to say to the welsh good luck in their match, and to their supporters, do not get all sensitive when bloggers provide an opinion that Samoa might win, because in reality if you do not improve in the areas as above, it could be a long day in the office.

Remember the pressure will be on your boys, if they lose this one, they are out.

The shoe is on the other foot, and I know exactly how you must be feeling.

Comfort wrote:Aren't SA a lot better team than Samoa?

Errrmmm...no.

Comfort wrote:Shouldnt SA be as worried than Wales about these man-beasts from the pacific islands?

I'd imagine they are, especially Samoa, however, in beating Wales, they have a comfortable cushion over Wales in terms of getting out of the group, and even if they do lose, they'll probably still top the group.

Comfort wrote:Its the fecking pace of the Samoan backline that worries me, and A Tuilagi (in general).

That's the point. The Samoans play a game that SA cannot. Add pace to the power of SA, and you get the Samoans. So, in many ways, they are a more difficult prospect. However, they do not have that consistent ability to win games when playing poorly, like SA seem to do time after time, as we would know.


And please, don't get cocky about playing the Pacific Islander. Please. Just remember '07. I can't fecking face that again. Especially if England snake their way to the final again, which they could well do.

Comfort, it is true that on current performance the Welsh are very strong, but what you need to remeber is that SA had few chances to run on sunday, Samoa on the other hand is a team that loves to run the ball, and that is where the danger lies for Wales because of those big fast backs.

SA had very few opportunities and the ones they didn't use were the ones where they went off their feet, but the oter two they socred from, which in a sense should worry Gatland, if Samoa gets more opportunities close to your line, they will surely put pressure on, and looking at Wales' defensive organisation on sunday, they need to step up.

But i did say wales will take this one, I am merely reflecting from my perception on what Wales could have done better looking at their previous performance.

Its a big game with 2 tribes going to war - Wales had a very good performance against SA in defeat whilst Samoa have recently beaten Australia in Australia, albeit a little understrength but that is nothing to be scoffed at and that performnce is at least comparable withe the Wales v SA performance - It is of course about who performs on the day and the winner is difficult to call here. Wales are technically superior IMO but if the Samoans start running amok then it will get frightening. Wales have to be patient and clinical, I believe we will keep our discipline. Keep it tight and take the points on offer - Don't start throwing silly passes, just go through phase after phase after phase retaining posession and catching the frustrated Samoans offside. If that doesn't work I will pray - I did go to church once, Xmas Carol concert I think

Samoa will need to up their game next Sunday I watched them in the early hours yes they convincingly beat Namibia but Namibia were very poor.
Physically we will match them and if we keep our heads we should beat them.

We might have a problem keping our heads against Samoa Cymro - they do tackle a bit high

That was high by their 15 Williams if the Namibian player had not got up it could have been a different colour card.

It wasn't high, it was the use of the shoulder and no attempt to wrap the arms, despite what Michael Lynagh said. The ref got it wrong, but ultimately, it's the right result, if the wrong way to go about it.

If Wales get the tactics right, it should be a 'comfortable' 10-15 point win. If not, we will seriously struggle, and a loss could quite easily be on the park; the longer they'er in the game, the more they'll be fired up for it, and perhaps fitness levels will negated by the adrenaline that comes from that, so we need to take the points throughout when they are on offer, and earn the points.

Still think Wales will win. The performance against SA was so encouraging, it's difficult to think anything else.

Don´t worry Comfort, the Boks will have to raise their game against Samoa as well. But it just so happens that Wales play Samoa first and they are more useful than Fiji. Don´t worry, when SA play Samoa, expect similar posts.

And you´re right that Wales have the players to negate the strengths of Samoa. That was a great forward effort by Wales. But it wasn´t a complete performance. At many times during the game, Mike Phillips had the ball at the base of the ruck and one player standing off the ruck who was often driven back. At times the Welsh players looked off their feet and needed time to suck in some deep breaths. That proved costly near the end of the game where SA counter-rucked beautifully and got precious possession in the dying moments. Obviously it took its physical toll with so many tackles but Phillips should´ve identified gaps in behind the SA ruck and marshalled his forwards accordingly to drive up the middle. It got a little predictable at times.

Samoans love to tackle. They enjoy that physical side of the game and will look to impose themselves in that area. So keep them guessing. Roberts was outstanding in breaking the line but there´s no reason why more forwards like Faletau can do the same if you organize yourselves properly.

So it was a great display but far from a perfect one and there are areas to improve on. And as Biltong said, Samoa will prove more of a danger in the backs than SA as their speed and power out there is another strength to their game. If there is turnover ball in particular and the Welsh line is disorganised, the Samoans will excel in this area. So Wales can´t afford to spill balls in the tackle like they did against SA because Samoa will make them pay more.

In all honesty I seen nothing this morning that made me think that Samoa will beat SA or Wales I did not even think they were all that physical.
Namibia were very poor 98 points against so far and a lot more to come.

Wales should not underestimate Samoa but Samoa will need to play a lot better if they want to beat Wales and Pisi is going to be a massive loss for them if he does not recover from his hamstring injury.

Cymro

Samoa basically sat back after 40 minutes. I saw enough to be worried in that first half; they were clinical and played in a manner that was distinctly un-Samoa-like; they executed opportunities really well, and scored when they presented themselves.

Dunno, I seem to have watched a different game to everyone else. Really thought Samoa looked quality in every facet; most impressively, the scrum, lineout and breakdown. Think Wales can hammer them at the breakdown by choking them of the ball and drawing them into penalties, and should have scrum advantage, but still, this is proof they are a thoroughly modern, professional rugby team now.

sorry guys, ranting not aimed at anyone in particular.

SA didnt get a chance to run the ball back in very good positions because Wales played smart, exactly how they'll need to play against Samoa.

Accurate kicking, solid set piece, going through the phases, after phases, after phases.

The mistakes will come from Samoa as although they're not the 'stiff-arm throwing, come bounding out of the defensive line every phase" team of yester-year, they do jump out quickly, they do look for the big hit and they do get fustrated without the ball.

Wales play the same game as they did against SA, they win against Samoa for me. It may sound cocky, and I will happily eat my words should (more like when now-sods law) Samoa win, but I think Wales have the game to win this, we've seen them play this type of rugby for years, surely it was intended for this and the Fiji games in particular?

Maybe I have too much faith in Gatland, maybe I'm suffering from Wales at the world cup fever, maybe I will have to remove my foot from my mouth this time next week.

Until then, wheres my daffodil costume and pink cowboy hat, on our day, we can beat anyone.

If we get our scrum and set piece right then we should win, especiialy if we kick our points. We need to keep it tight and not play Shane. He'll go off on own and get clattered - I dont think we can win a loose game.

Any news on the Samoan injuries ?

Pisi hamstring Tuifua rib not sure how bad though.

Pisi out for the Wales game then at least, for the rest of the tournament?

This was the first hit-out for Samoa in the tournament. I don´t think any top team has looked particularly convincing so far in their first game. Indeed other than Canada, Wales played to a higher level than any other so far and they lost.

But like Ireland against Australia, Samoa can lift today's performance because they know they have to. You can only play what´s in front of you. Samoa are not the only team to take their foot off the gas in the second half.

Wales really need to start this game well. They need to get points on the board early to nullify the home support. That doesn´t mean they need to be in front by 20 by half time. They just need to be patient and get down the right end of the park and keep the scoreboard ticking over to put pressure on the Samoans. That will give them the feeling that the game is slipping away from them and cause them to panic or try to force the game. However, if Wales fall behind on the scoreboard like Australia did, then it becomes much more difficult for Wales to impose their style of play on the game. So play to your strengths. Seek dominance up front, try to crash your way through the centres and only if the line is broken shift it out wide. If Wales try to get cute too early on in the game, it 'll play into Samoa´s hands.

Agree with that last paragraph in its entirety.

kiakahaaotearoa when Australia played Samoa Australia did not go for any kickable penalties Australia just treated the game as a warm up because they foolishly expected they would win and win convincingly.

If Wales make the same mistake then we will lose the game what we need to do is treat every game as if it's in the knock out stage,

They need to be slow and patient and go through phases like they did against England away.

Our scrum is solid, best I've seen in a while. Adam nullified the beast.Again.

Our lineout is better, not great, but better, we shouldn't lose our own against them and will hopefully nick a few of theirs if Charteris plays well.

Really don't want Shane to start against them. maybe come of the bench if we are more than a score a head but not otherwise.

Agreed Cymroglan. Australia bought into the hype surrounding them and got their pride battered. I don´t think for a second Wales will take the Samoans lightly. But I mean if Samoa can get early points (by means of their own efficiency rather than by casual Welsh play) then their confidence grows and they pull off plays like a huge hit on defence or a well worked backline move that wouldn´t happen if their heads were down.

All I´m saying is don´t give them a sniff. Grind them down. Be patient, cut down the error rate and starve them of possession. No aimless kicking, kick accurately for territory and apply pressure with ball in hand inside their own half.

Wales also have to be up on them early in defence; not giving them room and making first up tackles is essential - They get past the gainline and they are one of the most dangerous teams in the world.

RubyGuby wrote:Wales also have to be up on them early in defence; not giving them room and making first up tackles is essential - They get past the gainline and they are one of the most dangerous teams in the world.

Agree, Wales need to get up early. I've heard that the Samoans are heavy sleepers...

Not as heavy as James O´Connor Linebreaker!

I'll let you in on a little secret kia... our Beiber-boy was not 'sleeping'.

Sleeping with somebody or drinking to the early hours? With Ioane´s injury, it doesn´t seem to have affected him much. Made the difference against Italy and will probably start against Ireland. Seems like he´s been rewarded for his vices!

i'm watching a recording of samoa namibia now. samoa are organised, powerfull, skillful and quick.

i feel thay will be too much for wales. they will catch wales napping at the start and will take full advantage of our very slow ruckball.

3-1 on trys for samoa with a few goals from wales making it another agonisingly close match.

I watched and though two words - Brew and Tavis

munkian wrote:I watched and though two words - Brew and Tavis

brew and north are the only choice for the wings, so gats will probably go with 1/2p and shane.

quicker ball from tavis could save wales, so expect gats to pick phillips.

cant see wales beating samoa if we couldnt get passed the ageing, weakened south africa

Ironically we've weakend SA for the others in our group

you never know, if wales manage to somehow squeak past samoa by a point or 2 then SA could well be get caught up in a 3-club triangle for the top 2 positions in the group.........

We need 4 tries against Samoa to cement ourselves now we have to fight for 2nd place in group.

Not sure you need 4 tries. I think you still just need to win the next few games by whatever margin. I don't think SA will lose to Samoa or Fiji.

Gatland has prepared Wales well for this group, have faith. The Welsh scrum will dominate. Bennett wildly exceeded all expectations against SA and the back row trio is on belting form, both physical in defence and exciting with ball in hand.

I'd be quietly confident were I Welsh. The Welsh defence will certainly ask more questions of Samoa and Fiji than the Namibian defence.

I'd go with the power of Brew over Halfpenny. Halfpenny certainly isn't in the team on form.

munkian wrote:Ironically we've weakend SA for the others in our group

How do you figure that Munkian? Both Victo and Bryan went into the game with niggly hamstrings, besides injury is part and parcel of any match

Would love to see Tavis come on, or maybe start. He has the physicality, but he will also take the game to them more than Phillips. Whereas SA are the perfect opponents for Phillips, I think Samoa may be Tavis'. And Brew clearly has to start, but won't. Shane needs to be on the bench.

good luck to all Bok supporters, hang in there.

munkian wrote:Ironically we've weakend SA for the others in our group

not lost on me...cruel irony and although i think Samoa/Fiji defence/indiscipline will tell I think the Samoans especially will run them close. But they are after our scalps more than the Boks, expect to see some huge ambition from Samoa and hope we don't do our usual rabbit in the headlights, lift my skirt and help yourself in the first 10 minutes.

Gatts wrote:good luck to all Bok supporters, hang in there.

Thanks, Gatts