Who should Wales pick to face the Samoans and what are our chances?

personally i would go for the same starting 15 again but i'd bring Stephen Jones and Gethin Jenkins onto the bench and possibly bring them on for the last 15 - 20mins of the game before giving them both a start against Namibia the week after for some much needed game time, i would also do the same with most of the players on the bench such as Knoyle and Bradley Davies.

I think the Samoans pose a big threat to our chances in this World Cup they've played some good Rugby over the past 12 months and have really improved as a team, i just hope Wales are'nt putting to much pressure on themselves by treating each game as a knock-out game, because if the pressure gets to the players its likely more mistakes could be made and we could be in danger of pressing the self-destruct button as we did in 07, aslong as the players go out there and stick to their game-plan, starve the Samoans of possession as much as possible im confident that this group of players are good enough to win by two clear scores or more, we just need to get settled early

If I was a Welshman I'd be worried, Samoa look good not that Wales look bad and their defence is good, but Samoa have no pressure on them plus they feel at home in NZ, I can't wait for this game.

I still think we should give ickle a rest and Halfpenny a run out with Brew on the bench.

Other than that starting XV the same.

my lin-up for Samoa would be:

1. James
2. Bennett
3. Jones
4. AW Jones
5. Charteris
6. Lydiate
7. Warburton
8. Faletau
9. Phillips
10. Priestland (Hook)
11. Brew
12. Roberts
13. JD2
14. North
15. Hook (Priestland)

16. Jenkins (if 100% fit)
17. Owens
18. B Davies
19. Powell
20. Knoyle
21. Shane/Halfpenny
22. Scott Williams

Id like to see Brew get a shot, hes better suited to play the PI teams due to his pace/strength/workrate for me. Hook/Priestland can both play 10/15 and i wouldnt be unhappy with it either way round.

Shane/Halfpenny on the bench, depends whether you want shane to come on as the game breaks up or halfpenny for his long range kicking. I'd also bring on knoyle/b davies/powell on around 60/65 minutes for some fresh impetus and physicalness. Thats where the games are being won or lost at the moment, its now more than ever proof this is a squad game.

1. Paul James
2. Huw Bennett
3. Adam Jones
4. Alun Wyn Jones
5. Luke Charteris
6. Dan Lydiate
7. Sam Warburton (c)
8. Toby Faletau
9. Mike Phillips
10. Rhys Preistland
11. Leigh Halfpenny
12. Jamie Roberts
13. Jonathon Davies
14. George North
15. James Hook

16. Gethin Jenkins
17. Lloyd Burns
18. Bradley Davies
19. Andy Powell
20. Tavis Knoyle
21. Stephen Jones
22. Shane Williams


I thinks thats probably a better team than last weeks - i would be happy with at least 4 players coming off the bench, rather than just the 1.

I'd go with the same side that faced South Africa, they deserve that. I'd include Stephen Jones on the bench though and try to get him involved in the latter stages of the game.

I think Wales will win. It'll be tough, but Wales have more class in their side generally, and provided they withstand the inevitable physical onslaught, which they coped with pretty well against South Africa (1st 5 minutes excepted), Wales should be able to rack up more points than Samoa.

I'd look to use Tavis Knoyle off the bench a little bit sooner, a very useful impact player to have, and obviously Bradley Davies gives soon oomph when he comes on.

Have been impressed with Wales' preparations, and thought they looked outstanding against South Africa. Much credit to Gatland.

Pick the same team, except put williams on the bench. he will be effective in the 15 minutes, not before.

hook is not a good fullback. he must either start at 10 or center, or bench.

wales must have a stronger, and a much more experienced bench.

these are the two points that must be addressed, however i do not think wales will be able to beat samoa. there is too much pressure for a win and this welsh team cannot take the pressure.

the pressure of a 6 point lead was too much for wales. how about a 6 point deficit?

wales will lose

The only change I might make is Halfpenny for Hook at 15. Hook is not a full back, and I don't think he's a better 10 than Priestland. Halfpenny isn't really a FB, but is good in the air and would run better lines.

As regards Brew, I think the way to approach playing Samoa is to pick players according to our strengths. Brew has not done that much to prove himself international calibre, while Shane is the 3rd highest international try scorer in the history of rugby, and is fit. Samoa will be frightened of Shane (not physically, obviously!).

Id have hook at fullback defensively against samoa. The last place Id want him is in midfield, his tackling isnt strong enough for the centre, especially in comparison to the current pairing. I just have flashbacks of Fiji's Rabeni running over/through him repeatedly with a smile on his face in 2007.

Id rotate priestland/hook at first receiver though.

Shane/Knoyle/Davies/Powell to come on at 65 minutes and boom. fresh pace and power.

If they stay organised and keep to a structured game plan Wales should win. The danger from Samoa isn't so much their 'physicality' but from their very talented midfield and back three, who will thrive if things start to get loose. Playing a second game after only 4 days and without Pisi at FH is a big ask for Samoa, I'd keep faith and look to build momentum with the team that performed against SA if I were Wales, bringing on Jenkins, Jones & Halfpenny from the bench.

BlueNote wrote:The only change I might make is Halfpenny for Hook at 15. Hook is not a full back, and I don't think he's a better 10 than Priestland. Halfpenny isn't really a FB, but is good in the air and would run better lines.

As regards Brew, I think the way to approach playing Samoa is to pick players according to our strengths. Brew has not done that much to prove himself international calibre, while Shane is the 3rd highest international try scorer in the history of rugby, and is fit. Samoa will be frightened of Shane (not physically, obviously!).

Agree with you......

Looking at what Tuilagi did against the Namibia FB, and reviewing how poor Hook's defence was for the SA 1st try, you have to look at bringing 1/2p in for the game instead utilising his speed (angled runs), and huge left peg. Now thats the problem where do you put Hook?, not as good as Priestland at 10, and deffo a revolving door in the midfield. Bench ?...well I would rather bring on Stephen Jones to close out the game at 10, and Scott Williams is a better 12/13 than Hook. Massive call for Gatland this weekend I feel.

Players who could have done better against SA were

Adam Jones - off the pace, but that can be attributed to lack of match fitness
Shane Williams - always my first player on the Welsh selection, but he was very quiet in attack
James Hook - spilled ball, set up the first process of the SA 1st try, positioning and awful tackle of the FB, two missed kicks, and went missing for SA's last try.

I would make the following changes
15 Halfpenny

Bench
Gethin Jenkins
Stephen Jones

Considerations to be made
1. Do you go with the physicality of Brew, or the potential of Shanes match winning speed and jinks
2. Where do you put Hook............ do you chance a rookie like Scott Williams on the bench, or do you chance Hooks defence and utilise his match winning potential off the bench

tough one

Wales chances? Play like the SA match and they wont touch ye.

It will be tight though and I'm glad as hell we don't have to play them.

Wales by 9.

I think Wales will win by more than 10.

Samoa wilted in the last 20, contrast to that Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

Gatland has to use his bench effectively
Use Bradley Davies, Tarvis Knoyle after 60 mins, maybe Shane and Scott Williams for the last 15 mins when the game opens up

Fly, I certainly wouldnt want Halfpenny & Shane in the Back 3 together.

Id take brew on one wing, and I totally agree with what you say about Halfpenny, but Hook did some very good things from fullback against SA. Apart from one spilt high ball and the tackle on Steyn (which ive been very critical of) I think he did a good job. But I'd want Priestlands running angles from FB on attack and as such id have them rotating at first receiver (i've been saying this for weeks now )

I think there'll be some interesting selections, Gats has already said he wont be changing the team too much from the SA game as the lads nearly all played themselves into the next game.

you can see my suggestions above.

flyhalffactory wrote: Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

I love the stuff you Welsh come out with.

Can you imagine Tuilagi running at Halfpint and Williams?

TheGreyGhost wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote: Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

I love the stuff you Welsh come out with.

Can you imagine Tuilagi running at Halfpint and Williams?

To be fair, fly's scottish GG.

i can, and this is why i wouldnt have either of them in the back 3 for the game, certainly not both of them.

could you imagine him running at north.......... ouch.

Are you suggesting he thought they were good looking?

Theres every possibility, most of them do have nice tans and hair?

there is something about that cheeky australian backline mind you

TheGreyGhost wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote: Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

I love the stuff you Welsh come out with.

Can you imagine Tuilagi running at Halfpint and Williams?

What like banahan did, he coped ok with that one didn't he and Big Les when he came up against him

It doesn't matter how big an obstacle you put in front of Tuilagi, he usually comes of best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XxWIM127Bw


The commentator for the match this morning said he's weighing in at 19st at the moment. You have to go low. A smaller more technically adept defender may well be a better bet.

hawalsh wrote:It doesn't matter how big an obstacle you put in front of Tuilagi, he usually comes of best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XxWIM127Bw


The commentator for the match this morning said he's weighing in at 19st at the moment. You have to go low. A smaller more technically adept defender may well be a better bet.

I've highlighted the contradiction in this flow of logic.

I watched the game this morning unless Samoa are a couple of scores ahead by the time we get into the last quarter they are going to struggle and struggle badly.

Hook is prone to losing the ball in contact when he is hit hard, in the 2009 game he sliced through the Samoa defence about 8 times and on nearly all of them lost the ball forward when tackled, we need someone solid at Full back who can cut defences open. Hook should be at 10. I think Bryne might be our best bet at 15 to be honest.
I'd keep the South Africa team but have Hook at 10, and Bryne at 15.

It might not be a bad thing to have Gethin Jenkins, Stephen Jones, and a few other experienced players on the bench for the final quarter as their not the fittest side, and the 4 days turn around from Namibia will make them worse.

I don't think Hook is an int FB and would worry about the big Fijians running through the 10 channel if he was 10 - but he has played well and Gats won't drop him so I'd swap him and Priestland around, put Halfpenny or Brew instead of Shane (will also keep shane fresh for other games), put S Jones and Jenkins on the bench with Burns, B Davies, Knoyle and one of Brew and Scott Williams (more likely Brew as Hook can cover centre)

Cymroglan wrote:I watched the game this morning unless Samoa are a couple of scores ahead by the time we get into the last quarter they are going to struggle and struggle badly.

Not sure you can make that extrapolation. I think you will find their attitude and endeavour in closing out a tight game against Wales will be radically different to that against Namibia where they were 40 points ahead and have brought the whole of their bench on. In the closing quarter of the Australia match, the likes of Genia & Beale had been brought on but Samoa were outscored by only 4 points. NZ failed to stretch their lead against Tonga in the closing quarter of their game, would you infer that NZ don't have the ability to finish a game strongly from that?

They were still huffing and puffing in the game I watched today.

Cymroglan wrote:I watched the game this morning unless Samoa are a couple of scores ahead by the time we get into the last quarter they are going to struggle and struggle badly.

Those sorts of comments can easily come back to bite you in the bottom.

Samoa had the 5 points & job was done, may be another interpretation.......

I would have expected the Dragons to have had a bonus point win against Namibia a side who are yet to win a world cup match.

Cymroglan wrote:They were still huffing and puffing in the game I watched today.

They huffed & puffed a penalty try on the 70th minute

Did you honestly watch the game ? I'm not taking anything away from them but I certainly believe that their fitness level is not their main strength.
Three full days rest before they play Wales I believe they will struggle,

You could look at it that way Cymroglan, or you could look at it that they've had a good hit out and gained some match fitness and just about the most effective training run you could ask for.

Namibia did not test them much that's why I think they will struggle against a better side.
Against Wales they will not have so much control of the game they will be forced to work much harder.

Change/alternate Priestland & Hook. Stephen Jones & Gethin on the bench. Bring on Knoyle earlier. Stick with Shane - you can't go through these PI guys, you have to go past them.

Same side that started in Wellington and the same mindset. As long as our finishing improves, we should cruise it.

Not much humility or respect for a team that recently beat Australia.
It could all go horribly wrong quite easily.

Same side as v SA....drop Shane for 1/2 and have SJ and geth on bench. Rest Shane completely.

On the contrary, total respect for Samoa. This is the big game of the tournament for us. We have to get the selection right.

For me Bryne must play if we are going to progress in the competition and Gethin must have some time from the bench. I believe we need a scrum half that can speed things up, Phillips can take an age to get the ball away but he does provide great defence and keeps the opposition back row occupied. I would put Preistland on the bench as he can cover a number of positions and have Hook at 10 again with the view to go on in the WRC. The only other change is Brew replacing Shane with 1/2 Penny on the Bench for the second half. I would not bother with S Jones unless we want to come home early.

This is the problem all this hype is based around one win against a side that underestimated them, Australia did not even go for kickable penalties thats how convinced they were that they would win.
Australia lost that game through their own stupidity..

BigTrevsbigmac thinking your own side can win is not showing disrespect don't confuse wumming with being a genuine fan of the game.

samuraidragon wrote:On the contrary, total respect for Samoa. This is the big game of the tournament for us. We have to get the selection right.

this worries me, Wales resigning themselves to 'having' to win every game as if to do so is beyond them (it isn't)

Correct me if i am wrong but hasn't every RWC champ on every game?

glamorganalun wrote:For me Bryne must play if we are going to progress in the competition and Gethin must have some time from the bench. I believe we need a scrum half that can speed things up, Phillips can take an age to get the ball away but he does provide great defence and keeps the opposition back row occupied. I would put Preistland on the bench as he can cover a number of positions and have Hook at 10 again with the view to go on in the WRC. The only other change is Brew replacing Shane with 1/2 Penny on the Bench for the second half. I would not bother with S Jones unless we want to come home early.

Agree, think Philipps will get sucked into physical confrontation with a samoan side that may mince him, whereas Knoyle will avoid it and snipe v MP crabbing

Gatts wrote:Correct me if i am wrong but hasn't every RWC champ on every game?

I think that's the case but nothing lasts forever.

TheGreyGhost wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote: Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

I love the stuff you Welsh come out with.

Can you imagine Tuilagi running at Halfpint and Williams?

Grey Ghost
Laughing !!
Probably due to the meths you are guzzling mate.............I am Scottish, get a grip mate you are embarressing yourself .
Then again doubt the Welsh take you that seriously anyway

I would say that both 1/2p and Williams on a clean run would have no problem in breezing past Tuilagi. Of course with a head on collision there would only be one survivor

Mike Phillips will be in their face he will wind them up and as long as he can control himself then he will be ideal.

flyhalffactory wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:

flyhalffactory wrote: Wales are possible the fittest squad in the WC.

I love the stuff you Welsh come out with.

Can you imagine Tuilagi running at Halfpint and Williams?

Grey Ghost
Laughing !!
Probably due to the meths you are guzzling mate.............I am Scottish, get a grip mate you are embarressing yourself

I would say that both 1/2p and Williams on a clean run would have no problem in breezing past Tuilagi. Of course with a head on collision there would only be one survivor
Then again doubt the Welsh take you that seriously anyway

Tuilagi is like Lomu...tackle him around the legs. The art of being a winger (I know being a prop) is to avoid being tackled not seek contact like tuilagi. Yes he is damned effective but Shane owned Matt Banahan a few weeks back, in space SW would destroy MT one on one. problem v SA was he was closed down early.

Yeah - I remember all those successful tackles around Lomu's legs.

Cymroglan wrote:Namibia did not test them much that's why I think they will struggle against a better side.
Against Wales they will not have so much control of the game they will be forced to work much harder.

Conceding home advantage they didn't struggle against Australia or full strength England, Ireland & Scotland teams last autumn (despite having a more ad hoc team with far less preperation back then).

I expect Wales to win, but I don't think Samoa will struggle. I'm looking forward to what should be a very competitive match.

Gatts wrote:Tuilagi is like Lomu...tackle him around the legs. The art of being a winger (I know being a prop) is to avoid being tackled not seek contact like tuilagi. Yes he is damned effective but Shane owned Matt Banahan a few weeks back, in space SW would destroy MT one on one. problem v SA was he was closed down early.

Shane did not "own" Matt Banahan. He tackled him once. Banahan had a shocker and is nothing like as effective as Tuilagi or Lomu anyway.