Aviva Premiership Round 3

So we move on to round 3 of the Premiership and a little look at how the table is shaping up after two games:

Exeter Chiefs 2 2 0 0 9
London Wasps 2 2 0 0 9
Harlequins 2 2 0 0 8
Gloucester Rugby 2 1 0 1 5
Bath Rugby 2 1 0 1 5
Saracens 2 1 0 1 5
Sale Sharks 2 1 0 1 5
Northampton Saints 2 1 0 1 4
Worcester Warriors 2 1 0 1 4
London Irish 2 0 0 2 2
Leicester Tigers 2 0 0 2 2
Newcastle Falcons 2 0 0 2 0

Wasps, Harlequins and Exeter have all had perfect starts to their seasons, making it two wins from two with only the London based Harlequins failing to pick up a bonus point yet.

At the other end of the table Newcastle look to already be struggling with loses to both Exeter and Bath.

The next round of fixtures see the following:

Sat 17 Harlequins v Gloucester Rugby, The Stoop, London
15:00 local, 14:00 GMT

Sat 17 London Wasps v Sale Sharks, Adams Park, Wycombe
15:00 local, 14:00 GMT

Sat 17 Northampton Saints v London Irish, Franklin's Gardens, Northampton
15:00 local, 14:00 GMT

Sat 17 Newcastle Falcons v Leicester Tigers, Kingston Park, Newcastle
15:05 local, 14:05 GMT

Sat 17 Bath Rugby v Exeter Chiefs, Recreation Ground, Bath
17:30 local, 16:30 GMT

Sun 18 Saracens v Worcester Warriors, Vicarage Road, Watford
14:15 local, 13:15 GMT

My predictions:
Harlequins to keep up the tough fought winning habit. Quins by 5.
Wasps to show off their attacking skills again with another bp. Wasps by 15.
Northampton to make up for the lack of control last weekend. Saints by 7.
Leicester finaly get their first win of the season. Leicester by 12.
Bath put Exeter back in their box. Bath by 12.
Saracens rack up the tries against a weak Worcester. Saracens by 15.

yappy, my thoughts on your predictions:

Harlequins to keep up the tough fought winning habit. Quins by 5. - agreed, home win but by less than a score
Wasps to show off their attacking skills again with another bp. Wasps by 15. - revitalised Wasps continue their winning ways and Sale don't travel that well, so Wasps by more than a score
Northampton to make up for the lack of control last weekend. Saints by 7. - tough start to the season for Irish, can't see anything but Saints handing them a loss, quite possibly of the double digit variety
Leicester finaly get their first win of the season. Leicester by 12. - never invite smarting Tigers into your back yard, Falcons' woes set to continue, Leics win by more than a score
Bath put Exeter back in their box. Bath by 12. - sadly you are probably right that Bath will have too much for the Chiefs, expecting bath to match us up front and to have that little bit of extra firepower in the backs, so Bath by less than a score
Saracens rack up the tries against a weak Worcester. Saracens by 15. - Sarries to dominate and win by more than a score

Can't really argue with you there Yappysnap but I expect Saracens to not score many tries. Probably rack up plenty of penalties though.

I hope we do score tries but it wouldn't surprise me if we don't.

Agree with you and aslongas with the predictions though actually think Newcastle could pull a cheeky upset over an underpowered Leicester.

Beshocked, i'm expecting Saracens to try and run a bit in this game, their set piece and forwards should be in total control so there should be no reason not to give the fans what they want to see. Saull, Joubert, Goode, Barrit, Strettle and Brits all play well with ball in hand, you have to unleash them!

On a side note, would you say that the times you've scored more tries and ran more were the times when you had Joubert as captain, like for large parts of the 09/10 season?

I can't see Leicester losing this game, newcastle just don't seem to have the smarts to take advantage of their weakness' at the moment. And anyway Leicester lose 3 on the trot? No chance!

I'd love to Exeter beat Bath but unless you guys put some serious pressure on in the tackles and in the forwards i can't see it happen. The way to beat Bath is to make their A game useless, do that and they usually fall apart.

Where are all the prem fans these days as well?

Leicester to win first game.
Gloucester to surprise Quins.
Exeter to put the wind up Bath, but ultimately a home win by less than 5.

A few numbers following the first 2 games regarding English qualification (based on best guess)

Full Squad (off website, includes anyone from academy who gets game time, not 100%)

Average size - 43
Average EQ - 69.6%
Best EQ - Harlequins (88.1%)
Worst EQ - Sale (53.5%)
6 Clubs have >75%

Premiership Starts (30 so far)

Average EQ - 71.9%
Best EQ - Harlequins (90%)
Worst EQ - Exeter/Saracens (60%)
2 clubs have >75%

Premiership Replacements

Average - 8.9
Average EQ - 79.3%
Best EQ - Leicester/Northampton (100%)
Worst EQ - Wasps (57.1%)
9 clubs have >75%

It'll be interesting how it changes after the World Cup.

Those are some impressive stats, for Quins we have Care, Fa'Asuvali and Valejos come back, so one English and two NEQ. I can't think of any others.

Easter?

The only foreign players for Quins at the moment are Evans and Johnson. Fairbrother is EQ

I had tried to put Easter out of my mind. he's going to need a serious kick up the backside once he's back with us. Infact i'd be tempted to stick with York!

I didn't know that about Fairbrother, is that through family? To be fair as foreign players go I think those two are pretty good signings.

So in a regular starting team i'd expect 1-4 NEQ players.

I agree with your predictions yappy and can see all the home teams bar Newcastle winning. I definitely feel you'll be a step too far for us - our display against Worcester was described as work manlike but playing like that against you will not be good enough.

On your EQ front, I can see Glaws putting out a team with 14 English players (or 13 for those of you who want to be pedantic and count Vainikolo as Tongan!) and 6 English players on the bench.

Beshocked, Worcester's only 2 forms of attack are rolling mauls and crash balls for the centres. If you can nulify that you will score a hatfull of tries.

I suspect we will get our arses handed to us on a plate at Franklins Gardens this weekend.

It is very upsetting to have to say we have a massive game next week at home to Newcastle!!!

Don't be that down Pete, you nearly had us in the first game of the season!

Northampton are looking pretty poor as well, their play against us was really one-dimential

It's just taking you boys a while to gel, and you need to play the right fly half as well.

Give the ball to Ojo more as well!!

We have loads of talent in the backs yappy, although losing Yarde until Christmas is disappointing as he had been looking dangerous. Our problem is up front.

We need a few old gnarly buggers in the pack, and we just don't have them at the moment. Hopefully the arrival of Bryn Evans in the second row will give us a list, as will getting Jamie Gibson back from injury soon.

If everything clicks, then we could easily beat Northampton, it's just taking a while for things to fall into place, and I am not convinced that we are quite there for this week.

I predict that we will get beaten again, maybe hanging in for a LBP, and then next week we really need to kick start our season against the Falcons.

Yappysnap I hope you are right.

HKC I am still worried.

LDCpete I personally see London Irish as a quite erratic side who can turn it on but also can sometimes not be at the races. Would you agree?

When the world cup finishes I think you'll have a much stronger side. You are missing the two Armitage bros,Mapusua,S.Tagicakibau,Corbisiero etc.

Why did you let S.Armitage and Mapusua leave?

Saints are not full strength but at FG you would expect them to win.

Yea i think even if you lose it will be close, Saints fly halves are both average and if you get to them then it'll just become an arm wrestle, get an early try and defend well. They wont know what to do if you do that.

I know the feeling on the pack front, the players we have there could be great in a few seasons time but at the moment get roasted by some of the other big packs around.

At least soon you'll have Hape back, then things have to start looking up. Right?

Beshocked, i think if Saracens are really serious about being a big club in Europe and here then they need to get some big scores on the smaller clubs. If you can't do it against Wuss then how will you go about getting the winning bp in Europe against the poorer teams there?

Remember Leicesters performance against the Scarlets? That sort of game is needed.

I know i'll be gutted if Quins don't get the bp against Wudd when we're playing them.

yappy, that's just cruel and unnecessary - it's bad enough Irish signed Hape, but don't rub it in his face!

I'm not sold on Hape to be honest, think he is pretty average and is a big step down from Maps at 12. My understanding is that Steffon wanted to leave and there was little the club could do to persuade him to stay, and Maps knew it was pretty much his last opportunity for a decent contract so has gone to Japan. Can't begtrudge him that to be honest, we has been a great servant at the club.

beshocked

Over the past 3 seasons I think we have sown that on our day, we can beat pretty much anyone, but those days just don't come round often enough. Consistency is an issue, and really that stems from our pack not quite being up to it. We have some really good young player sin there who in 2-3 years time could be excellent, it's just a case fo trying to keep them and develop them whilst getting results now as well.

LDCPete, I completely agree with you that Hape is a poor man's substitute for Mapasua. I must admit the thought of facing Hape and Ansbro is far, far less daunting than facing Mapasua and Seveali’i.

I also agree that whilst you may suffer a few losses over the next couple of seasons, in c.3 years time you're going to have a lot of youngsters hitting their full potential - so is this the lull before the storm?

Depends if we can hang on to them HKC. There is bags of potential there, but they need some older heds guiding him which is what we are missing a bit.

Team for tomorrow against Saints has been announced...

15. Tom Homer; 14. Topsy Ojo; 13. Jonathan Joseph; 12. Steve Shingler; 11. Adam Thompstone; 10. Dan Bowden; 9. Darren Allinson; 1. Clarke Dermody (Captain); 2. David Paice; 3. Leo Halavatau; 4. Nick Kennedy; 5. Matt Garvey; 6. Ed Siggery; 7. Alex Gray; 8. Chris Hala’ufia
Replacements : 16. James Buckland; 17. Max Lahiff; 18.Mark George; 19. Bryn Evans; 20. Dave Sisi; 21. Guy Armitage; 22. Anthony Watson; 23. Paul Hodgson


10 players in that squad came through the academy at the club, so they must be doing something right, but to emphasis how inexpereinced they are, there are 8 players who still qualify to play U20 rugby in that 23, and Sisi and Watson were AASE players last season, and only joined the academy in the summer. I think both can still play U18 rugby this season.

Both flankers are current U20 international players. Potentially exciting times ahead, but we just need some grizzle and grunt in there to give some of these kids a chance.

Well by all accounts it wasn't pretty but I'll settle for 4 points from Franklins Gardens.

Quins are flying, look like the team to beat early season. Really like what Conor O'shea is doing there (he says begrudgingly ).

LondonTiger wrote:Leicester to win first game.
Gloucester to surprise Quins.
Exeter to put the wind up Bath, but ultimately a home win by less than 5.

Well I was a long way off the mark re Quins.

Kudos have to go to LI and Sale who were not expected to win.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:yappy, my thoughts on your predictions:

Harlequins to keep up the tough fought winning habit. Quins by 5. - agreed, home win but by less than a score
Wasps to show off their attacking skills again with another bp. Wasps by 15. - revitalised Wasps continue their winning ways and Sale don't travel that well, so Wasps by more than a score
Northampton to make up for the lack of control last weekend. Saints by 7. - tough start to the season for Irish, can't see anything but Saints handing them a loss, quite possibly of the double digit variety
Leicester finaly get their first win of the season. Leicester by 12. - never invite smarting Tigers into your back yard, Falcons' woes set to continue, Leics win by more than a score
Bath put Exeter back in their box. Bath by 12. - sadly you are probably right that Bath will have too much for the Chiefs, expecting bath to match us up front and to have that little bit of extra firepower in the backs, so Bath by less than a score
Saracens rack up the tries against a weak Worcester. Saracens by 15. - Sarries to dominate and win by more than a score

Oops, not sure I could have made a worse set of predictions!! - resounding victory for Quins, unexpected loss for Wasps, congrats to Irish for an impressive away win, and Falcons did well against Tigers - sadly got the Bath-Chiefs result just about spot on!

I don't think anyone could have predicted those results! Will we see Worcester beat Sarries now...

Well done to Irish! Tigers and Saints looking a shadow of themselves without the big names. Welcome to our world boys!

Congrats to Sale also, the forgotten team so far but a shock win that looked comfortable, what happened at Wasps any one?

Good to see Quins top of the table, need to extend that lead though. Even better to see Exeter second, can they hold in there?!

HKC Saracens were appalling. Just when it looked like they could threaten they dropped the ball. One dimensional in attack. No gameplan. Completely clueless. Worcester never really looked like winning though.

It was exactly as I feared. Struggling to put away arguably the weakest team in the AP is not good enough in my opinion.

Worcester were spoiling for a fight but that's no excuse. We should have done better.

beshocked, that pretty much summed up Glaws' game against Wuss as well. In Garvey and Benjamin they have 2 exciting wings, it is just such a shame the ball never gets to them!

I wouldn't worry too much about your form at the moment. The history of the Jeff has shown time and time again that the team that is in form now peaks too soon. If you're picking up points now and not playing well, you'll be well positioned for when you start clicking. I thought last year Sarries timed their performances to perfection and I still feel you're going to top the table this year.

Behocked who were the half backs for the game? Were there enough chances created or was it just the receiving players butchering everything that came their way?

Tigers and Saints looking a shadow of themselves without the big names

Think our defensive problems are exactly the same as last season to be honest the only difference is that at the minute we don't have a top class front five to bully the opposition. Mind you last season we lacked some quality in the second rows, offset against the replacements coming on leaps and bounds having gained the experience (if Ed Slater can become more agressive and forfill his potential England will be thanking Tigers again). The issues with hooker sadly remain (despite us having two very good younger EQ hookers we seem to insist on playing the aging one ).

What is with that? Chuter has been pap for ages now.

And as much potential as Slater has it really seems like you miss Kay (?) Tigers second row looks quite weak, Skivington seems to be struggling too, but then i think his role is different now compared to what it was when he played for Wasps.

Just who would be your first choice locks?

HKC true.


Sam it was De Kock and Hodgson.

Hodgson didn't have a brilliant game. Made many handling errors but helped set up Strettle's try and made a line break.

Bit of both really. More opportunities should have been created but there were a few opportunities that weren't taken up on.

Two in particular stand out - one was a huge gaping hole in the Worcester defence that wasn't exploited, the other was when Hodgson made a break there was no support at all, he consequently got isolated and gave away a penalty. If the ball had been recycled quickly or if he had a man in support we probably would have scored.

There were overlaps as well but poorly executed.

Saracens had a lot of possession and territory particularly in the first half but simply couldn't break through.

Just when it looked like openings were made, Saracens players would drop the ball.

Anyone would miss Ben Kay, Yappy he was a savant of the lineout and a real bonus around the park. Deacon and Parling would be the first choice pairing as they were when we last won the title. Skivington is having trouble running the lineout and doesn't bring any of the authority around the park we hoped he would.

Beshocked that sounds like the same kind of issues tigers are having. Much of the initial play is good but the team is yet to gell sufficiently that supporting each others breaks and knowing when to look for the offload etc isn't coming naturally.

I can understand Tigers having gelling issues with 19 Tigers out but Saracens have been playing players who have played enough times together!

The only new signings in the first XV recently have been Joe Maddock and Charlie Hodgson.

Very few players has been consistently good in the first 3 games. Justin Melck,Carlos Nieto and Rhys Gill only.

I think things will stabilise when the world cup boys come back. Burger and Brown are leaders. Wigglesworth will help Hodgson. Wyles will make Goode work hard to maintain the full back jersey.