Rate your order of upsets for this weekend

Very interesting weekend coming up...

My order of 'likelihood to upset'-

First is Samoa vs Wales. Samoa have a very good chance and they are boosted by two main points- its on better than home ground for them. Support will be unprecedented and Wales will think they are in the wrong place by match end. The other thing is Samoa have beaten Wales twice in World cups (I believe 99/91 from memory). They are underdogs and after recent wins against Oz and a good start last match are up for this match.

On Wales side are recent wins in the friendly's and a very good performance against the Boks. They've also had the better of the interval between matches and are injury free from all accounts. SA on the other hand are carrying injuries and have a short recovery from Wednesdays match. Still think its the most likely upset prospect for the weekend and I'm tipping Samoa for this one- in fact the only upset I am picking.

Next I'm going for Romania over Argentina. Romania acquitted themselves well against Scotland and as a second tier team have got to be a chance here.

Next I'm going for Ireland though Oz might just have too much momentum for them having too many guns where it counts- at the end of the match. An Auckland crowd- 56 k I believe expected- will give Cooper a hard time when he's lining up and Ireland have shown some good, although inconsistent, form but have some VERY good players amongst their midst. I think it will be close but no cigar for Ireland.

I'm going with Fiji as next most likely upset over SA ONLY because they came very close to SA last world cup- and this is a similar team they will be playing. Can't see them winning this though.

The rest I think will go to plan fairly easily. Canada did well against Tonga but I think will be too under resourced to match France. Close at best if they get things together. NZ and England should see off their teams reasonably comfortably.

So, in order of upset likelihood...

Wales v Samoa
Argentina v Romania
Australia v Ireland
South Africa v Fiji
France v Canada
New Zealand v Japan
England v Georgia

The way people are talking about Samoa it seems like it will be a upset if Wales beat them. So yes your order is correct.

Only Samoa, Ireland and Romania are capable of staging an upset IMO. In that order too I would say.

taylorman
I really can'y see any upsets this weekend.
Cymroglan
I can't see Wales having any problems this weekend against Samoa. samoa announce their team today, and I doubt if Tusi Pisi will be included and this will be a big blow to Samoa, As good a player as Tasesa Lavea is, its a long time since he won that gold ring with the Melbourne Storm which I believe was when he peaked.

Hi ya Cymroglan. Things have changed over the last week I think- in Wales favour. The longer interval, Samoan injuries and more particularly Wales match against SA. My favourite match so far- a real test match with everything in it.

Samoa do rely on their performances at the world cup, one of the few teams that 'play above themselves' at each tournament.

But overall, Wales have the more complete team and should win I agree. its just my most likeliest as an upset- mind you- I'd prefer the Irish one!

hi laurie- Tasesa Lavea- geez I couldnt stand him for the Blues. I was in that brigade who wanted him out before he could do any more stupid things- and he stayed on...and on...and on...

In saying that- I will guarantee there will be at least one upset this weekend. Such is the nature of the world cup. Quote this back to me Monday but I'm certain the nature of the tournament will give us at least one.

taylorman
One factor which could well assist Ireland tomorrow night is the weather, it has really hosed down here this morning , and guess who the idiot who has an uncovered seat !!

Any idea what the weather is for Sunday ?

Cymro
Showers gradually clearing.
But the weather could be doing Wales a favour, it is absolutely hosing down to day, and that Hamilton ground will get a decent churning up to night by the ABs game. then its only 48 hours to the Wales game...

Do I like Samoa? Yes, they are by far my most favorite team after the Boks. The reason is simple, every interview I have seen with one of their players have struck me that they are honest hard working people who hold rugby as dear to their hearts as their traditions and culture.

Do I hope they will win? Yes I do (sorry to my welsh friends)

Do I think they will? No, Wales had good preparation, they looked better than they have for a long time, and ultimately they should be too organise, have the batter of the tight phases and breakdowns and are sporting no injuries and more recovery time

aucklandlaurie cheers mate

biltog
I'm with you on all three counts, I'm not anti wales perse, its just that so many of these samoans are Aucklanders, grew up playing/learnig there rugby in ths town.

Sorry I am on my phone and it takes me forever to type on this darn thing, I forgot to mention, when we played them in the 1995 RWC they impressed me with their free flowing running and the physicality they brought to the game, they have skills I wish we had

Cymro
Small thing also, Hamilton is warren Gatlands home.

Yeah I spent most of my life growing up around Pacific Islanders in South Auckland and my teams from School and club were usually half polynesian at least, Samoans being the majority so as NZ'ers we certainly have a connection with them and would celebrate the win.

Its certainly nothing against Wales who I support in the 6N.

Just going to be a really great game I reckon.

I think there's a chance that Australia could upset Ireland but I don't see happening to be honest.

So why write an article about upsets and then tell us the only upset will be Wales Samoa?!

There will be one upset this weekend I believe.

Australia will be very upset when Ireland beat them.

Considering Wales have never beaten Samoa at a World Cup I would say that neither side winning is really an upset. Especially, as you say, Samoa are practically playing at home.

SA loosing to Fiji would be a huge upset because SA have never lost to Fiji, are consistently in the top three teams in the World and are the CURRENT world champions.

Likewise Ireland beating Australia would be a huge upset. Ireland have shown poor form and mediocrity since their Grandslam in 2009, with only the occasional decent performance. Luckily those performances come during big Games.

The Biggest possible upset this week would be the All Blacks falling to Japan. It is highly unlikely, but not impossible....!

Other than Wales v Samoa (what outcome is actually the upset?), I don't see any upset happening this weekend.

New Zealand population will be cheering for Ireland (and for USA and Russia in the next 2 games Wallabies play) - that chip on the collective shoulder keeps growing with every Wallaby win. New Zealand Herald doing everything to perpetuate the QCooper hatred - bemusing stuff, but getting soooo boring now.

Anyway, looking forward to another round of great matches.

Rob B wrote:Other than Wales v Samoa (what outcome is actually the upset?), I don't see any upset happening this weekend.

I consider people thinking that Samoa are not a top Rugby Nation as insulting to Samoa. They have had a great season beating Australia away from home and had a great start putting nearly a half century over the Namibians.

Some time soon a PI nation will make the Semis. They are some of the most natural and gifted rugby players in the world. We should all give them far more respect than we do.

maestegmafia wrote:

Rob B wrote:Other than Wales v Samoa (what outcome is actually the upset?), I don't see any upset happening this weekend.

I consider people thinking that Samoa are not a top Rugby Nation as insulting to Samoa. They have had a great season beating Australia away from home and had a great start putting nearly a half century over the Namibians.

Some time soon a PI nation will make the Semis. They are some of the most natural and gifted rugby players in the world. We should all give them far more respect than we do.

Its true, in their day they could beat anyone.

Joking aside Samoa beating Wales would be an upset. Wales were a 2nd seed team, Samoa a third. Wales have consistently been ranked above Samoa. Whilst the Pisland teams seem to have a hoodoo over them Wales' results and performances are generaly better than those of Samoa.
The gap isnt huge, and Samoa are capable of a win, but the bookies have Wales as favourites for a reason, they are a better side. It wouldnt be a huge upset for Samoa to win though.

Thats why neutralsl are seeing this as one of the most interesting games of the tournament so far, two sides that seem to be on their game in a match that will probably decide second place in the group.


Unsure about Irelands chances against Australia, theyve only put in one genuinly good performance in ages (gits). It certainly would be an upset for tehm to beat a better side in better form.

Romania? No...just no.

[quote="Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler"][quote="maestegmafia"][quote="Rob B"]Other than Wales v Samoa (what outcome is actually the upset?), I don't see any upset happening this weekend.
[/quote]

I consider people thinking that Samoa are not a top Rugby Nation as insulting to Samoa. They have had a great season beating Australia away from home and had a great start putting nearly a half century over the Namibians.

Some time soon a PI nation will make the Semis. They are some of the most natural and gifted rugby players in the world. We should all give them far more respect than we do.

[/quote]

Its true, in their day they could beat anyone.

Joking aside Samoa beating Wales would be an upset. Wales were a 2nd seed team, Samoa a third. Wales have consistently been ranked above Samoa. Whilst the Pisland teams seem to have a hoodoo over them Wales' results and performances are generaly better than those of Samoa.
The gap isnt huge, and Samoa are capable of a win, but the bookies have Wales as favourites for a reason, they are a better side. It wouldnt be a huge upset for Samoa to win though.

Thats why neutralsl are seeing this as one of the most interesting games of the tournament so far, two sides that seem to be on their game in a match that will probably decide second place in the group.


Unsure about Irelands chances against Australia, theyve only put in one genuinly good performance in ages (gits). It certainly would be an upset for tehm to beat a better side in better form.

Romania? No...just no.[/quote]

Samoa are fourth seeds actually Going by the seeding usa beating Russia was an upset though I believe they are ahead of .

I think a bad match would probably be the biggest shock between Wales and Samoa going by the way people think the match will go. Ireland [b]could[/b beat Oz but we haven't played when in 2 odd years apart from the England match. Fiji might pull off a shock but its porbably beyond them at the moment.

Wales will beat Samoa by 5-10 points.

Australia will beat Ireland by a similar margin.

Don't think there's an upset there.

I think what will cost Samoa is fitness and turnovers. They did make a bunch of handling errors against Namibia and I think Wales should be able to make the most of them.

I also think that Wales wont have much if any domination in the tight and that if they do try to rely on muscle they wont win.

maestegmafia wrote:

Rob B wrote:Other than Wales v Samoa (what outcome is actually the upset?), I don't see any upset happening this weekend.

I consider people thinking that Samoa are not a top Rugby Nation as insulting to Samoa. They have had a great season beating Australia away from home and had a great start putting nearly a half century over the Namibians.

Some time soon a PI nation will make the Semis. They are some of the most natural and gifted rugby players in the world. We should all give them far more respect than we do.

Geez Rob where Coopers concerned hes done it all to himself. Even Farr Jones has come out and grated him so I know you think there's nothing at all in it dating back to Hong Kong where McCaw even started that apparently, where there's smoke there's usually fire. Funny how all the incidents we see its always Cooper 'doing it' and Coopers performances at Eden Park will get attention.

So Cooper has not been a very smart lad knowing that he'd have to face their music here and as Farr Jones said the pressure in performing in front of NZ crowds may be the losing of this world cup for Oz- and he'll only have himself to blame if thats the case.

As far as Samoa goes the reason it would be an upset is due to the rankings- pure and simple. I think the two a basically even- polar opposites in terms of the approach, players abilities and gameplan, but still even. I just think the rabid home support will sway it Samoa's way.

And with Pocock and Ioane out- 2 of the fab 5 down- Irish eyes will be smiling- in fact they already are on the Oz-Ire match thread. Both Ireland and Wales know their last 8 destiny's lie in this weekends matches so the two and the SA Fiji match will be riveting to say the least.

Good luck to all and may the best team(s) win.