Ireland Wins! What does this do the the RWC?

First of all great to see Ireland grab a big result. After weeks of saying I thought they were better than their recent form showed, they finally made me look smart (hard to do in the best of times). Appreciate the help, boys.

So what does this do to the predictions about how the knockout stages will be set up? If Ireland win their pool, whch now seems likely, they would face Wales or Samoa in the QF (runner up of Pool D). Then England or France in the SF. NZ will probably have to play either the Boks or Wallabies in the SF before getting to the finals.

So first up, it appears likely there will be another SH v. NH finals. Thats good for banter, if nothing else.
What do you think the chances are for each of the NH teams to make the finals? England historically beat France, at least in the RWC, but Ireland have had Englands number recently, and France can do up Ireland. Rather circular, eh?

It does nothing yet. Wait until pools have finished

HammerofThunor wrote:It does nothing yet. Wait until pools have finished

True, if Ireland lose to Italy Australia could still go through as the top team.

If Any nH team do go through as top of their group obviously we could well see a NH semi Final and a SH semi, resulting in a certain NH team in the finals.

Way to early for this lads plenty of rugby to be played in the pools.

Feagh McHugh wrote:Way to early for this lads plenty of rugby to be played in the pools.

Agreed. Ireland had a good match and played the conditions well to defeat Australia. However the world cup has only just started and there is plenty of Rugby left to be played.

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

Feagh McHugh wrote:Way to early for this lads plenty of rugby to be played in the pools.

Agreed. Ireland had a good match and played the conditions well to defeat Australia. However the world cup has only just started and there is plenty of Rugby left to be played.

I was wondering when the conditions one would be rolled out.....

It's making me worry. Don't like the idea of the mighty AB's being on the same side of the draw as SA and OZ

Artful_Dodger wrote:

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:

Feagh McHugh wrote:Way to early for this lads plenty of rugby to be played in the pools.

Agreed. Ireland had a good match and played the conditions well to defeat Australia. However the world cup has only just started and there is plenty of R ugby left to be played.

I was wondering when the conditions one would be rolled out.....

So you are suggesting your team did not play the conditions well?

It had incredibly little to do with conditions in my opinion, it was about tactics and execution of tactics.

And what dictated those tactics? Its no coincidence the MOTM was a prop. Those conditions are perfect for a powerful forward display that you guys showed. I'm taking nothing away from Ireland. Your tactics and execution were spot on.

kdowle wrote:It's making me worry. Don't like the idea of the mighty AB's being on the same side of the draw as SA and OZ

Why are you worried - assuming that the AB's were to beat the French, the AB's were always going to have to play SA in a semi; the only thing that has changed now is that one of SA or Aus will be knocked out at semi time and the AB's will only have to play one 3N team instead of two to win the whole thing - in some ways life just got easier for the AB's.

Otagolad wrote:

kdowle wrote:It's making me worry. Don't like the idea of the mighty AB's being on the same side of the draw as SA and OZ

Why are you worried - assuming that the AB's were to beat the French, the AB's were always going to have to play SA in a semi; the only thing that has changed now is that one of SA or Aus will be knocked out at semi time and the AB's will only have to play one 3N team instead of two to win the whole thing - in some ways life just got easier for the AB's.

I meant "...one of SA or Aus will be knocked out at QUARTERS time..."

Also, I would be interested on Biltong's or Bullsbok's take on the result last night and how they are feeling with an impending quarter against Aus.

HammerofThunor wrote:It does nothing yet. Wait until pools have finished

+ 1

I don't think anyone who watched us play the USA would suggest that the wet conditions helped Ireland

The only thing that can change a SA OZ quarter now are more upsets- bigger ones.
For instance ireland losing to either usa or russia? ummm...
Or SA losing to samoa or oz completely losing it.

Ireland lose to Italy or Russia

HammerofThunor wrote:Ireland lose to Italy or Russia

Yes and that could happen for sure. Samoa could beat SA and/or Wales, France could beat NZ, Scotland could beat England, Argentina could beat Scotland. It's just way too early to say what will happen in the KO stages.

Ireland have to play Italy actually. Not a foregone conclusion, if you saw their last meeting in Rome. It was very very close to an Italian win. We just nabbed it at the death. But this won't be in Rome. And Ireland will hopefully now be filled with enough confidence to do what their expected to do and see off the Italians.

But you never know. The mysterious and enigmatic fighting Irish "passion" could evaporate as soon as we're expected to win.

It means Wales have a chance of getting to the semi finals, all we need to do is beat, Samoa, Namibia, Fiji and Ireland in the next 4 weeks!

HammerofThunor wrote:Ireland lose to Italy or Russia

Oh yep, apologies. I thought that's what the commentators said during the match.

Its not a forgone conclusion but then again if they're really as good as they were against Oz it should be. But world cups are where upsets happen more than at any other stage so I suppose anythings possible. Ireland just looked to me like they have a very stable gameplan, good commitment and the right attitude.

Can't see Samoa beating SA now SA have got a bit of momentum- something they havnt had for a very long time. They could beat Wales. Looks like a yuck day for it today (well in Wellington it does, not sure about Hamilton).

Going to be a cracker.

The Ireland v Oz result has shaken the whole Cup up. Now, it is very likely, that the SH teams will have to get by each other in the other half of the draw. That has Oz, SA and NZ extra worried now. That shifts pressure on them and not the NH teams.

IF Ireland beat Italy and they win the group, they will have either Wales or Samoa in the QF's. Either of those teams will probably be harder to beat than Oz. Its all or nothing in knockouts. Anything can happen. There is no hiding. Nothing to hold back. All those games will be tight and will add to the Competition as a spectacle.

The same goes for the England, Scotland & Argentina group. All 3 could win it now.

What we do know now is, that the whole comp is more wide open than before. Perspective has shifted. And I love that. If France beat NZ, local madness will ensue and the tension will be palpable. Id like to see that as well. I hate predictability and mediocrity. Unpredictability factors could make this the best RWC ever. And I'm all for that. Love to see the Big Guns gunned down and freaked out. Its good for the game.

More!

What does it mean? It means we have to back it up against Russia and Italy basically. This can't be a one-off. We need to hit the high notes in the last two games of the pool and try and book a quarter.

Spot on Notch! 100% right, one off victories mean nothing, we're only half way to a QF. Nothing more.

You the man Gibson! Believe!

I'm glad we have Russia before Italy. Time to regroup. Time and space to mentally reset and get ready for another huge game. Italy straight after this huge win would be deadly for us. Been watching us for far too long. Its a Irish psyche thing. We have peaked and dipped for eons. A sporting mental weakness if you will.

When its gets to the knockout phase, so many differing factors come in to play. Injuries, refs key-decisions, mindset, weather and bottle, to name a few. Not to mention the biggest one of all. Luck. In the Pools games - lose one and you still have a chance to make up for it. Not in knockouts. Different Universe.

The best team in the World for getting all of those factors to work in their favour? South Africa.

Gibo what impressed me today was the togetherness of the team they had utter faith in one another there was no giving out to one and other you could visibly see the ozzys fade. It was like watching one of those southern team playing tyrone at there best squeezed and squeezed the ozzys really didnt fancy it. Its up to the players now after this result they have to believe they can go all the way. Id rest mike ross for the italy game.

as in he would have a breather next week

I'd pick;

1. Cian Healy
2. Sean Cronin
3. Tony Buckley
4. Donncha O'Callaghan
5. Leo Cullen
6. Denis Leamy
7. Sean O'Brien
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Eoin Reddan
10. Ronan O'Gara
11. Andrew Trimble
12. Paddy Wallace
13. Brian O'Driscoll (c)
14. Tommy Bowe
15. Rob Kearney

16. Rory Best 17. Mike Ross 18. Paul O'Connell 19. Stephen Ferris 20. Conor Murray 21. Jonathon Sexton 22. Keith Earls

Against Russia. I'm most wary of three changes in the tight five, but the guys will be exhausted after that. They now need to be sweating on their places watching another guy in the shirt to make sure nobody drops their level. Motivation takes many forms!

Gibson wrote:The Ireland v Oz result has shaken the whole Cup up. Now, it is very likely, that the SH teams will have to get by each other in the other half of the draw. That has Oz, SA and NZ extra worried now. That shifts pressure on them and not the NH teams.

Well it actually doesnt put more pressure on NZ. If anything its less. Assuming its still tougher for us to play SH teams (and I'm not saying it is at this point)

With games going to rankings NZ would have faced SA in the semis and Oz in the final. Barring upsets that was our expectations- to have to beat them both to win this.

Oz losing has done a couple of things for NZ- provided the remaining games go to rankings- one is we can actually lose to France and come second in the pool and not have a SH side till the final. To us, that is an easier option. Not that we'll drop a game to France deliberately.

The other thing is now we only play one SH team on the way to the final- Oz and SA knocking each other out. The third thing is Oz have again confirmed their inconsistency and are not liking the Eden Park factor- losing there again.

So all in all. Oz have just done NZ a favour if anything.

I agree Tec. We looked together and very strong as a unit. Players were smiling, whilst bating 7 bells of shoite out of Oz. Deccie is a Master at that craic. Man Management. But we looked like that v England in the 6-N. Then what happened? Just a lot happier playing Russia before Italy.

Id rest BOD, POC, 1F, Ross and Best v Russia. Or have them on the bench if needed. SOB and Heaslip need the games. So do Cronin(especially now) , Court, Buckley, Jennings and Leamy.

Notch wrote:I'd pick;

1. Cian Healy
2. Sean Cronin
3. Tony Buckley
4. Donncha O'Callaghan
5. Leo Cullen
6. Denis Leamy
7. Sean O'Brien
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Eoin Reddan
10. Ronan O'Gara
11. Andrew Trimble
12. Paddy Wallace
13. Brian O'Driscoll (c)
14. Tommy Bowe
15. Rob Kearney

16. Rory Best 17. Mike Ross 18. Paul O'Connell 19. Stephen Ferris 20. Conor Murray 21. Jonathon Sexton 22. Keith Earls

Against Russia. I'm most wary of three changes in the tight five, but the guys will be exhausted after that. They now need to be sweating on their places watching another guy in the shirt to make sure nobody drops their level. Motivation takes many forms!

Looks good Notch. Players who need the games - get them. Players who need to rest get it too.

Taylorman wrote:

Gibson wrote:The Ireland v Oz result has shaken the whole Cup up. Now, it is very likely, that the SH teams will have to get by each other in the other half of the draw. That has Oz, SA and NZ extra worried now. That shifts pressure on them and not the NH teams.

Well it actually doesnt put more pressure on NZ. If anything its less. Assuming its still tougher for us to play SH teams (and I'm not saying it is at this point)

With games going to rankings NZ would have faced SA in the semis and Oz in the final. Barring upsets that was our expectations- to have to beat them both to win this.

Oz losing has done a couple of things for NZ- provided the remaining games go to rankings- one is we can actually lose to France and come second in the pool and not have a SH side till the final. To us, that is an easier option. Not that we'll drop a game to France deliberately.

The other thing is now we only play one SH team on the way to the final- Oz and SA knocking each other out. The third thing is Oz have again confirmed their inconsistency and are not liking the Eden Park factor- losing there again.

So all in all. Oz have just done NZ a favour if anything.

Interesting points Taylor. But NZ would never purposely lose to France to make it an easier path to the Final. Would they? Would they do anything to ensure the Holy Ellis Grail is won again - at last?

Hmmmm.

Nah ye wont. You will want to thrash everyone on the way to winning the Final. Its the Kiwi way. Proper order too.


Nite lads.Need a few hours zzzz's. Wales v Samoa knockout game on, in less than 4 hours. Should be a cracker. Cant miss it.

Gibson wrote:But we looked like that v England in the 6-N. Then what happened?

That's the big question. I'm sure the English watched this game and wanted to shout "See everybody!! This is what we've been telling ye! Facing an Irish side with their nostrils flaring and adrenaline pumping and with fire in their bellies is HAAARD!!"

But we seem to need to be backed into a corner and written off before we can produce a performance like that. We take the Irish underdog mindset for granted. But the foreign rugby pundits who work in Ireland often talk about how odd it is.

Hopefully the teams confidence will be lifted so high now that they won't shrink into themselves against Italy when they're FAVOURITES!

Gibson wrote:But NZ would never purposely lose to France to make it an easier path to the Final. Would they?
Nite lads.Need a few hours zzzz's. Wales v Samoa knockout game on, in less than 4 hours. Should be a cracker. Cant miss it.

No we won't. I actually think we'll beat France comfortably. But if we don't we end up in a better position so theres no pressure on us for this one.

Thing about Oz is theyve had a wake up call and like Eden Park they respond well in coming back so they cannot be written off yet. The next team they play may cop it.

Good luck for the match anyway. Pity its going to be wet.

Australia aren't out of the World Cup. They're still good enough to get to the final. They just have take the scenic route.

Feckless Rogue wrote:Australia aren't out of the World Cup. They're still good enough to get to the final. They just have take the scenic route.

Of course not - you're absolutely right. The scenic route is the way England got to the final in the last RWC.