The Great Escape

It was Gatland's birthday on Friday.

The victory against Samoa was more than just a birthday present. It won't have been lost on him that he was at the ground where he had spent much of his playing career and he must have known that the ensuing 80 minutes were likely to make or break his legacy as Welsh coach. If you saw him rocking back and forth in the coaches box you would have seen the face of a man who knew that his time might be up and his relief was palpable. He would have no doubt recalled the fact that 4 years before the WRU, so incensed by Jenkins failure, had flown to France to summarily fire him.

The widely accepted benchmark for success at this RWC was a 1/4 final spot. Anything else seemed improbable except perhaps, in the back of all our minds, another abject failure. Facing PI teams with a history of beating us made this task seem seem even harder. Had Wales lost again, to Samoa, Gatland's position would surely have become untenable and I believe he might have resigned, if not his sacking would not have been an over reaction. Most fans will have been thinking that had we lost to Samoa the WRU might well have been straight on the plane.

He arrived after a humiliating defeat at RWC 2007 and proceeded to lead Wales to a 2nd Grand Slam. Big things were expected and didn't happen and since 2008 he has presided over steadily decreasing performance. New players have been brought in and let go, there has been a lack of continuity, the Hook debate, the Henson selection and a fundamental change from the high tempo offload game to a more structured style. All this while continually sledging opponents lead many Welsh fans to start thinking he had become a caricature of himself and that he only needed to buy a one way ticket back home to RWC 2011.

But in winning just one key game, has he brought both himself and the 2nd youngest team at RWC, newly fit and defending with aplomb from the brink of disaster to the brink of relative success (possibly) making the 1/4 finals. We still have to face Fiji but i am confident.

Who if anyone has escaped, Wales or Gatland...is all forgiven in one victory over Samoa. Was that enough and should he now take credit for what appears to be a Wales that can win under pressure, that is fitter, that (almost) beat anyone on their day.

Is Gatland's Wales now, finally, starting to show it's mettle. Can we look forward to a resurgent (again) Welsh side who will bring us another trophy next Spring or will Spring herald another false dawn?

Did Gatland just dodge a bullet and is he the right man for the job?

This kind of post really gives little respect to Samoa.

Samoa are a nation of abundant rugby resources, who have now added a fine coach with a background of playing experience in the All Blacks set up. Most of the players have either super rugby or premiership experience and accordingly they are adding structure, discipline, pragmatism to their flair and physical presence.

Samoa were short of key play maker Pisi at 1st five-eighths and whilst Lavea might be a competent full back, he's too erratic to sustain the new structured game that Samoa are trying to play.

I'd say that Wales dodged a bullet here. Credit to them for coming away with the win. But Samoa have really impressed me as now standing head and shoulders above their traditional Pacific Island rivals.

If Wales did go out, they should look at the lack of composure on the field from the players that once again saw them fail to close out a win over one of the top ranked sides and stop trying to blame failures on their coaches.

I thought Wales did well in both matches. In the Samoa match they were able to withstand the onslaught yet remain composed through that crucial period after half time. I could see the light going out at about 60 minutes in Samoa and only a late rally at the end gave them a glimmer of hope, albeit too late.

What Wales had against Samoa, SA had against Wales- enough composure to keep Wales out. If Wales dodged a bullet against Samoa, SA dodged one against Wales.

Wales could have won, Samoa could have won. As far as I was concerned, in both cases the team with the most composure won on the day. Wales didnt take their chances (drop goal, missed late Hook penalty) and nor did Samoa- the double movement try.

In fairness to all 3 teams- the results were about right. So Gatland should be congratulated for Samoa, and should learn from SA. Thats what a good coach, and his fans would do at this point.

Interesting that Samoa's "double-movement" try was disallowed.

It was less obvious than the one that Dylan Hartley got away with for England against NZ, and I've heard a lot of English fans defending Hartley's "try".

Small margins, agreed. But is composure the difference? or are these matches all being decided by ref calls? last week's outcome seemed to hang on whether Barnes referred a penalty call to a TMO.

Why does the OP lack respect for Samoa? It's not about Samoa and the fact that they are a fine rugby team, the post is about Wales and Gatland.

My view on Gatland hasn't changed because of one decent performance against SA and a scrappy win over Samoa. He ran out of ideas a while ago and I would prefer a change after the WC - not likely perhaps, but imo he's not the right man to take this young team to the next level.

It's disrespectful to suggest that the only way Wales would lose to Samoa was if the Welsh coach was incompetent and needed to be fired.

How about this scenario: you've got the best coach in the world and the best players available to Wales, they're all fully fit and it's their day and yet Samoa still win by a couple of points.

There is nobody better to replace any of the Wales staff with, they just lost. How about that?

TheGreyGhost wrote:
Small margins, agreed. But is composure the difference? or are these matches all being decided by ref calls? last week's outcome seemed to hang on whether Barnes referred a penalty call to a TMO.

Well who was it that dropped the goal and miss the penalty? The ref? Excluding the over the post one as that was in the first half. Wales had other chances, and didnt take them. The over the post call is a red herring and overrated in its context.

I think Gatland has done a superb job for Wales.

He gets a lot of stick but jesus so does everyone in the Welsh Coaching role. In that respect we are no different to New Zealand. 99% of the controversial rubbish is media led and very unimportant to the team.

He makes mistakes like any other coach but he makes amends with clever selectorial and coaching decisions too.

We now have a good young squad that can and are competing with some very talented teams at the World Cup.

Long may it continue.

Taylorman wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:
Small margins, agreed. But is composure the difference? or are these matches all being decided by ref calls? last week's outcome seemed to hang on whether Barnes referred a penalty call to a TMO.

Well who was it that dropped the goal and miss the penalty? The ref? Excluding the over the post one as that was in the first half. Wales had other chances, and didnt take them. The over the post call is a red herring and overrated in its context.

Agreed

Gatland made the WRU aware that Wales continues further north than Brecon.

maestegmafia wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:
Small margins, agreed. But is composure the difference? or are these matches all being decided by ref calls? last week's outcome seemed to hang on whether Barnes referred a penalty call to a TMO.

Well who was it that dropped the goal and miss the penalty? The ref? Excluding the over the post one as that was in the first half. Wales had other chances, and didnt take them. The over the post call is a red herring and overrated in its context.

Agreed

That's not a valid argument - that any team should be able to win despite the performance of the referee. Both teams missed chances, but one team prevailed. I'm referring specifically to chances that were missed by the referee, rather than the players. There are a certain number of opportunities that will be missed by players on the day, both sides are under pressure from their opposition. The referee is not, and hence he has no excuse for making errors.

If you accept that all refereeing mistakes are acceptable then what you are saying is that one team should be forced to play up-hill and into the wind all day.

Cymroglan wrote:Gatland made the WRU aware that Wales continues further north than Brecon.

Wales does. Rugby doesn't.

nothings further north than brecon, only beastie land!

TheGreyGhost wrote:It's disrespectful to suggest that the only way Wales would lose to Samoa was if the Welsh coach was incompetent and needed to be fired.

How about this scenario: you've got the best coach in the world and the best players available to Wales, they're all fully fit and it's their day and yet Samoa still win by a couple of points.

There is nobody better to replace any of the Wales staff with, they just lost. How about that?

I don't think that is what the OP is suggesting and I think you're maybe reading it wrongly. What I think it's saying is that after 4 years of progressively worse performances would a loss to Samoa have been the final straw? I don't think it would have been and Gatland has always said he was building towards the world cup and that could be seen against South Africa.

I don't really get the point of the question. What do you mean How about that?

You could argue that so far this WC Wales have been involved in 2 games where the best team lost

GreyGhost can you tell me what difference referring the kick to the TMO would have had? The touch judges said it didn't go over (One of which was a Kiwi but you conveniently forget about him in any of your rants) so all he would have been able to ask for was evidence that this was wrong? They still haven't been able to show an angle that proves it went over so the decision would have remained the same.

All the Welsh fans have accepted this decision (despite having a more vested interest than your stalker like hatred of Wayne Barnes) so why can’t you?

You are missing the point Toadfish, the point is that with such small margins of error afforded to the players/coaches before sets of fans call for their heads I'm suggesting we reflect on how much leniency is given to poor referees who cause a larger swing in points differential through questionable decisions.

My contention is that any match settled by less than 3 points is genuinely equially as likely to have been decided by a refereeing mistake, than a player's mistake. Folks keep coming out to defend the referees by saying "people make mistakes" and "but team X could have won anyway", which is frankly missing the point in my view. Who is scrutinising the refs? and why are they treated so leniently when they fail?

Wales are going about their work quietly on the field and there appears to be both skill and a backbone - Losing Lydiate and bringing on the clown was bound to affect proceedings. Samoa are a formidable oponent who recently beat Aus in their own back yard. I am very very pleased with what I have seen from Wales so far. 1/2 p now to FB and the rest the same with Gethin starting to get a look in. Things are looking very good IMO and we never seemed to panic on Sunday. It was far from perfect but we didn't panic and defended well.

TheGreyGhost wrote:My contention is that any match settled by less than 3 points is genuinely equially as likely to have been decided by a refereeing mistake, than a player's mistake. Folks keep coming out to defend the referees by saying "people make mistakes" and "but team X could have won anyway", which is frankly missing the point in my view. Who is scrutinising the refs? and why are they treated so leniently when they fail?

To be honest, Im completely with you on this. Ignoring all of the games that have gone so far. What happens if we get to the final and SA beat NZ by 2 points (just an example), those extra points kicked from a penalty that was a blatantly incorrect call.

Hell breaks loose I assume?

This isnt having a go at NZ, but just proving a point, if a game is settled (effectively) by 1 bad call from the ref or TJs then it shouldnt matter context that game is in, whether its romania vs georgia in a friendly or the World Cup final, these calls shouldnt affect the outcome. They can directly have an effect on tournaments, trophies, coaching careers, international careers etc etc stemming from contentious losses. Ref's need to be more responsible for their calls during games, or have some sort of assistance.

I have no answers, only riddles.

I think it's a great opening post for this topic, though to an extent I agree with GreyGhost about the lack of respect being shown to Samoa, a quick look at the clubs that their players play for and you will see many of them play for prestigious French and English clubs.

I think their coach is an idiot though, Samoa have brilliant depth, and made a massive error in picking their first choice team for the Namibia game, then used the same team 4 days later. Simply put, they have reserve players who play for some of the best teams in Europe especially in the pack, so why not use them against Namibia and keep the first choice pack fresh to face Wales?
I made a post highlighting the error as soon as they announced their side for Namibia and not suprisingly Samoa came a cropper!

Stupid coaching decision and it contributed to their demise.

On the other hand Alyn, if they hadn't played the would have hit Wales first up in the tournament after Wales had a good work out v South Africa.

Rest of rotation is a balancing act. Probably you are correct that a couple of games in four days was a bit much, but Namibia surely not much more than a training run for the Samoans...would they have been any more fresh if the first team had done a tough training session that day instead?

AlynDavies wrote:I think their coach is an idiot though, Samoa have brilliant depth, and made a massive error in picking their first choice team for the Namibia game, then used the same team 4 days later. Simply put, they have reserve players who play for some of the best teams in Europe especially in the pack, so why not use them against Namibia and keep the first choice pack fresh to face Wales?

They don't have that much depth, a 2nd string Samoa came last in the Pacific Nations competition this year. More importantly, if teams could perform straight out of the gate without practice, why did most nations organise warm-up games and most clubs do likewise before their season starts?

Can't see where the OP is being disrespectful to Samoa. Just read the post twice. All the OP is saying is that Gatland would have lost his job, as Jenkins did last world cup. Now he's redeemed himself somewhat. The OP hardly mentioned Samoa, doesn't say it was an easy win for Wales or anything. Has it been edited since posting or something? What am I missing?!

We've done better than expected against SA and picked up a losing bonus point which many would have taken if offered it before the game. Plus, we've won a game against Samoa which we were largely tipped to be an upset and for us to lose. Gatland said 'judge me on the world cup' when he came into post, and as such if we make it to the 1/4s, which having beaten the 2 toughest teams in the pool will be more achievable now than 2 weeks ago, Gatland is likely to keep his job and be allowed to continue, something his predessor didn't manage to do. He therefore looks likely to win praise going forward.

GG no one to this day knows whether the kick was over. Why do you expect Barnes to?

Our news guys did a graphics experiment and extended the posts and the ball went through the line so at best it would have hit the posts. Are we then supposed to assume that Barnes or the TMO should figure that in at the time?

Can't believe you're still hanging onto this. It was even in the first half.

Refs are people- not evil cellar dwellers as you would have us all believe.

GG I have been away for a few days but have come back to find you have totally hijacked this post.

You clearly know nothing about the issues facing Wales and gatland's management over the last 3 years so do me a favour and read up on it before you start banging on about 'respect' for Samoa.

Yesterday I likened you to a small fruit which apparently, in the interests of killing banter, is disallowed. I am sorry but that afore not mentioned fruit does evoke images of you, for me.

I'm well aware of the issues facing Wales and their coaching staff Gatts. And as an outsider, I reluctantly have to break it to you that it might be a bit of a Welsh national obsession to blame the coach when the team loses.

Selection? Now that I can understand. But the problems in Welsh rugby are abundantly plain for all to see. Professional players aren't pawns or robots, they don't get wound up, pointed at the opposition goal line and released.

Sometimes you will lose and it won't be because the coach didn't tell the players not to play lateral stagnant rugby, foolishly kick away possession, commit fewer offences or remember to get the vital kicks at goal, or bottle it on an intercept try and drop the ball.

TheGreyGhost wrote:I'm well aware of the issues facing Wales and their coaching staff Gatts. And as an outsider, I reluctantly have to break it to you that it might be a bit of a Welsh national obsession to blame the coach when the team loses.

Don't forget the referee ...

Anyway, we can all agree that on their day they're nigh on unbeatable whoever the coach is.

roddersm wrote:

TheGreyGhost wrote:I'm well aware of the issues facing Wales and their coaching staff Gatts. And as an outsider, I reluctantly have to break it to you that it might be a bit of a Welsh national obsession to blame the coach when the team loses.

Don't forget the referee ...

Git...I was born to deliver that line!

TheGreyGhost wrote:Anyway, we can all agree that on their day they're nigh on unbeatable whoever the coach is.

Taylorman wrote:GG no one to this day knows whether the kick was over. Why do you expect Barnes to?

Our news guys did a graphics experiment and extended the posts and the ball went through the line so at best it would have hit the posts. Are we then supposed to assume that Barnes or the TMO should figure that in at the time?

Can't believe you're still hanging onto this. It was even in the first half.

Refs are people- not evil cellar dwellers as you would have us all believe.

the All Blacks have only just got over 1905 (a totally fair result imo) I doubt they will ever get over 2007, refs do make mistakes that cost people tournaments, or accolades such as invinicible. (deans was tackled, Gabe said so)

However, the ref didnt cost us the game against SA we had our chances and didnt take them so we move on. As for Gatland, I hope he stays, I have had issues with his selection in the past but the improvement in the team structure and play has been great, I do think he needs to look at Howley of whom I am not a fan, honestly when there was talk of Brian Ashton coming in to help the welsh backs I was ecstatic unfortunatly that never materialised.

Tycroes,

I agree that Gatland should stay but the role of some of the back up staff (Howely in particular) needs to be looked at.

Ashton would be a great appointment IMO if we could get him.

yeah Ashton would have our backs really cutting loose, I dont know what happened to the idea of Ashton coming in as a technical consultant but he is working for Flyde RFC these days. its a shame I honestly thought England had the best coach iin the UK when they hired him but clearly id didnt work out.