Halfway through the pool rounds - where are we?

So we are halfway through the pool matches and already the tournament has been turned on its head. There are still a few important and path changing matches left.

Pool A.
New Zealand vs France on 24/9 should be the pool decider and although France have upset New Zealand in the past and are as unpredictable as the weather in Auckland, I for one can’t see this going any other way than a New Zealand win. Add to that the “motivation” France will have to lose the match and end up in a better side of the draw to battle their way to a final. New Zealand are too proud a rugby nation to even consider throwing the match that will enable them the easier side of the draw.

Pool B
There are still two very important pool matches for the aspiring quarter finalists. Argentina vs Scotland on the 25/9 and England vs Scotland on the 1/10. Although England are leading the race it is not a foregone conclusion that they will win the pool, but it does seem likely as Argentina has already been dispatched and Scotland based on their previous performances just don’t seem to be on fire enough to take on the English. So for me the pool decider is Scotland vs Argentina.

Pool C
Turned on it’s head by the Irish victory over Australia, one might think there isn’t much to play for in this pool, Australia should comfortably dispatch their remaining opposition, but Ireland still have the minor hurdle of overcoming Italy, who has shown a strong forward pack and decent kicking game is something not to be taken lightly. In their match against Australia we must not forget that until halftime with a score of 6 all, Italy was still in the match.

Pool D
By all and sundry it will be assumed that this pool has been sown up by South Africa and Wales. Between Ireland and Wales they had two chances of upsetting the applecart by winning their pool match against their more favoured SH opponents to allow them to benefit form a better draw to the knock out rounds. If Wales did win their match against South Africa they would have found themselves on the NZ side of the draw, so perhaps the loss was a little fortuitous. South Africa still has a hurting Samoa team to dispatch to ensure them finishing top of their pool, and once again I do not see them throwing a match for a more favourable draw.

Knock out rounds.
So who are most likely to have the most difficult run to make the final.
The supposedly easier draw, which in my opinion is disrespectful to the six nation countries, perhaps so called because they know each other very well, and have all beaten one another on a regular basis will be:

England vs France
Wales vs Ireland.

The Tri Nations route.

South Africa vs Australia
New Zealand vs Scotland/ Argentina

In my humble opinion South Africa has most likely the most physically demanding task ahead to win the RWC, purely because having to see off a very physical Samoa team who will be hurting because of their heartbreaking loss to Wales, then onto a quarter final match vs the Wallabies, to a semi final vs the all Blacks and then if they make it that far having to take on whichever six nation team has prevailed over their neighbours. And then of course they would need to be on form and have no injuries.

Australia probably has the second most physically demanding task ahead. They have to face the USA and Russia before the quarter finals where although neither team should challenge them on the score board, they will physically take it out of the already suffering Australian forward pack. From there on they still have to beat SA, NZ and then meet some rather physical forward packs in the final.

Of the Tri Nation teams, New Zealand will be sitting pretty. Yes they still have to beat France in the pool, but from there on in depending on who they face in the quarter finals there may be some physical battering by Argentina if they make it. But New Zealand should despatch of either Scotland or Argentina with relevant ease. Their biggest challenge comes in which team they meet in the semi final.

The Northern Hemisphere teams do not have it much easier either, France, Ireland, England and Wales have all shown very physical packs during the world cup so far. But in my opinion most are equally matched.

So I still come to the conclusion that my own team has very little chance of going through Samoa, Australia, New Zealand and ultimately the winner of the NH section.

“Bye, bye Bill, bye, bye happiness, hello depression, I think I’m gonna cry—eye”
“Goodbye, old Bill goodbye- eye”

I personally think the all Blacks will be doing their own rendition of

“ We’ve paid our dues
Every four years
We’ve done our sentence
And kept on winning
And bad mistakes
We’ve made a few
We’ve had our share of choking in the end
But we’ve come through

We are the champions my friends
And we kept on fighting to the end
We are the champions
We are the champions
No time for choking
Cause we are the champions of the world”

Anyway just my opinion and I will not lose hope, not if you have me drawn and quartered. It will probably hurt as much, but in the face of adversity i will keep the faith.

John kirwan says hold on to hope. Reach out for it...
My problem is if the french drop the match this week we have 2 relatively easy matches then either arg or scot.
In other words for the 6th time in a row, no serious competition in pool play. No close matches. Then knockout. We spend four weeks every tournament playing easy matches.
Then come up against teams like yours who struggle a little, but enough, teams who have already lost or been shaken. We have never been in that position.
Its a unique position we find ourselves in and of course we dont expect sympathy for it but for NZ its a real problem. Pool play is bad for us when it comes to knockout. We would be better of playing our own sxv sides.
So although your road is tough id probably welcome it. Because the easy road aint so easy sometimes. We tend to let ourselves get ambushed.

Even if the french go with the intention of dropping the match, I am sure it wll still be a good workout for the All Blacks.

Perhaps all Black coaches should select weaker teams to take to a world cup, that way the guys might not dominated pool matches so much and be match ready for the bigger challlenges ahead.

The only thing left to decide really is who comes first and second in Pool B

New Zealand and France will qualify in that order , OK theres a slim chance France will win depending who the cook and referee are.
Ireland have found their game for only the second time in a year and overcome the equally inconsitent Aussies, both will qualify
Whilst the Fiji game isnt a complete given Wales have put themselves in a position where it would be difficult for them to not finish second in their pool, SA will stroll first spot from here.

Scotland Argentina is the most important game in terms of qualification now. I dont magine it will be a wide open fast flowing game of beauty, but one of genuine interest. If Scotland win theres still a chance they could top the pool but should qualify whatever, if they lose they could still qualify by beating England and picking up bonus points elsewhere.
Its the only group I see really going to the wire with a genuine chance of 3 sides being able to win it still.
Seems like a good reason for the media to focus on England

Yeah i know. No easy way of explaining it without sounding completely patronising.

Anyway. GH knows this and believes he has it covered. No idea how!

I agree the french might want the match themselves as prep for their last 8 so should be ok.

And i reckon theyd be crazy naming a second team for it at a packed 500 buk or so a ticket match at 60000 eden park. Theyd be booed off the field and humiliated i reckon let alone taken to pieces.

in the head of Lievremont there is no 1st or 2nd team, he has a group of 30 players he picks from. for him, the drawbacks of rotating are not enough enough to force him to stick to a first XV. there is big areas of uncertainties around 8,9,10,12 and 13.

so please do not get offended by whatever teams he names

whocares wrote:in the head of Lievremont there is no 1st or 2nd team, he has a group of 30 players he picks from. for him, the drawbacks of rotating are not enough enough to force him to stick to a first XV. there is big areas of uncertainties around 8,9,10,12 and 13.

so please do not get offended by whatever teams he names

I thought the only rotating going on was the dart board before he throws at it to choose the team

Lievremont must be stumped though, as there are only 20 numbers on the dart board and he has to select 22.

Lucky packet anyone?

Ahhh, but he has his own extra special dart board, that only he understands how to work properly, everyone else would have to rely on george north to decipher it.

You're telling me George North is not only a rugby legend but also a genius?

How on earth did his parents manage to control him, he could have taken over the world by now.

BB, look out the window, that's him wot you're looking at, awesome aint he

Hmmmmmmm, omnipresent as well?

I am starting to think the man is a figment of my imagination and this is all a dream, maybe I should pinch myself.

omnipresence goes without saying, its all basic deity stuff, whatever you do dont ask Him to pinch you, you know what'll happen....................

Perhaps it is time for me to get more updated on my Greek mythology, it will help me understand the complex being of George North.

What I do know is that for every GOOD there is BAD, who is his opposite Bakkies Botha?

Lets not start all that good god, bad god stuff, its too early in the week, plus you know that bakkies aspires to emulate george. Still trying to catch up on the sleep lost sunday morning...........the things we do

I have myself indeed been struggling with the lack of sleep, this is going to catch up with me sooner or later, perhaps that is why I am occupying my mind with the MAN, GEORGE NORTH.

Just for interest sake, when Bakkies Botha started playing professional rugby, George North hasn't yet grown any facial hair.

Samson ring any bells?? plus gillette havent designed a razor strong enough yet, they're working on the North'n'go, only have to shave once in a lifetime.............

Yeah, that is what my sister said about her facial hair.

bless em, bet she could grow a better one than steve "pieman" thompsons effort, looks like hes been trying since the last world cup............

andy powells minder wrote:bless em, bet she could grow a better one than steve "pieman" thompsons effort, looks like hes been trying since the last world cup............

Halfway only through the pools, a bit of the ol´damp and suddenly the European teams look good to get at least one team to the final and Ireland have put their hand up to be included with England and France as potential giant slayers.

Certainly with the club scene in Europe, there is a greater experience of knockout rugby. The home and away 3N or S15 format do not lend themselves to a must win or go home mentality. I think there´s something in that but despite talk of an upset, Ireland was capable of pulling off a win like that so it´s not the greatest shock. What it´s done is send SA and Australia on a collision course and SA will have been keenly interested in that forward performance in particular by Australia.

No team has won a World Cup when they´ve lost in pool play. No reason why Australia can´t change that but they have a huge ask now in pulling that off. The France vs NZ match will decide who tops pool A and also will decide if the 3N head on a collision course.

Still a lot of rugby and injuries will play a key role as always. Pocock was a big loss for example but any team would suffer with a world class player or two out with injury. A shift has occurred towards to teams able to compete well at the breakdown which might suit teams like England, SA, France and Ireland. The weather might just as easily improve dramatically though and a more running style might come to the fore. Still plenty to come and potentially happen. But undoubtedly last Saturday turned this tournament on its head.

halfway through the pools and you have to feel sorry for SA really. They're doing everything right (results wise) and are likely to have to beat Australia and NZ to reach the final, harsh! A brief summary team by team (the top 9):

NZ: OK against Tonga (poor second half) and better against Japan. First real test coming up against France.

France: not too hot so far, have twice taken advantage of teams being gassed to run in three late tries, need to improve. Have the two BP wins though.

England: awful first game but ground out the win, better against Georgia. Penalties a real problem, but again, two wins from two, and on their way to topping the group.

Scotland: have shown very little so far. Needed a late rally to overcome Romania, and failed to score a try against Georgia. Do have the two wins, but two stiff challenges up ahead.

Argentina: should really have beaten England, but guilty of not trusting themselves to cross the tryline. Didn't see their game against Romania, but the scoreline was convincing. Crucial game against Scotland coming up.

Ireland: poor performance against the USA, then turned the tournament upside down against Australia. Should go on to top the group, and have a real chance of making the business end of the tournament.

Australia: a few moments of Cooper inspiration took them past Italy, but looked lost against Ireland. Face a real challenge to make it past the QFs now.

SA: just did enough to beat Wales in a poor performance, but then played some fine stuff to take Fiji apart. Have landed themselves a touch draw through no fault of their own.

Wales: should really have put SA away, but lacked composure in the key moments. Did enough to beat Samoa without being too convincing. Should make the quarters, and given the draw, they must believe they can keep going from there.

The main thing is England top of the log,on points difference only.fact is Group B is by far the most unpredictable ALL 3 sides could top it.
Without there key players Argentina were a revelation,playing like that they could be a big handful.Group A will be the big one,NZ at full strength
would be favourites to win.But a loss would put them in NH side of draw,unless Ireland blow up,a win win situation.
Austrlia v SA,if it goes on discipline Australia will concede penalties Steyn will kill them in 3`s .Really big match this and the Semi if the AB`s are there will be like two finals.The final could be an anti-climax.
OR that elusive new NH side on the Cup.IF NZ don`t win it that would be nice.A 1987 ,1991,2007 final repeats are all possible not forgetting 1999.