Pick Your Semi Finalists

First topic message reminder :

Pick four teams that you think will make the semis...

Current experts thoughts of likely quarter-finalists are:

Ireland v Wales

England v France

South Africa v Australia

New Zealand v Argentina/Scotland



Possible upsets would be France beating New Zealand swapping one for the other at the quarters. Italy beating Ireland meaning Ireland likely to swap with Australia at the quarters stage. Whether Samoa can beat SA and Wales loose to Fiji meaning that SA and Samoa go through or if Wales beat Fiji by a cricket score and SA loose whether SA wont qualify. Another permutation is whether England or Scotland will go through top of their pool, and for that matter whether England, Scotland or Argentina would go through as second place quarter-finalists from their pool.

Variations could possibly be:

Australia v Samoa

Scotland v France

Wales/SA v Ireland

New Zealand v England

Rob B wrote:

nganboy wrote:The real Ireland are the team that play one great game - per tournament.

And I'm not sure that Aus defence is that poor. Have they leaked tries against many teams lower ranked (or even higher ranked) recently?

They haven't conceded a try this tournament and look well placed to maintain that at pool level.

My picks are:


Australia v England

SA v New Zealand

Well Ireland have only conceded one try and I can't see us losing to Italy as they have never beaten us in a competitive match. Plus our record v Wales is very good. Australia are fairly unlikely to finish top of the group so I think they might get taught another lesson by SA.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:I'd be interested to know if any of the people who voted for Wales aren't welsh...

Hi

are you saying you voted for Wales? I did but I'm biased

leinsterbaby wrote:

Rob B wrote:

nganboy wrote:The real Ireland are the team that play one great game - per tournament.

And I'm not sure that Aus defence is that poor. Have they leaked tries against many teams lower ranked (or even higher ranked) recently?

They haven't conceded a try this tournament and look well placed to maintain that at pool level.

My picks are:


Australia v England

SA v New Zealand

Well Ireland have only conceded one try and I can't see us losing to Italy as they have never beaten us in a competitive match. Plus our record v Wales is very good. Australia are fairly unlikely to finish top of the group so I think they might get taught another lesson by SA.

All I got on this site before last Sat was that form and histroy are meaningless - as it is a unique event it is what happens on the day. Now you argue form and history in relation to Italy and Wales. Which is it?

It's an intersting tightrope though - beat Italy and you finish top; lose to Italy and you may miss out on a QF. Italy looked pretty good the other day in attack - the game against Ireland is their grand final.

If OZ get their players back on deck and forwards front up, not sure they will lose a lot sleep over SA - beaten them in their last 3 tests I think.

Rob B wrote:

leinsterbaby wrote:

Rob B wrote:

nganboy wrote:The real Ireland are the team that play one great game - per tournament.

And I'm not sure that Aus defence is that poor. Have they leaked tries against many teams lower ranked (or even higher ranked) recently?

They haven't conceded a try this tournament and look well placed to maintain that at pool level.

My picks are:


Australia v England

SA v New Zealand

Well Ireland have only conceded one try and I can't see us losing to Italy as they have never beaten us in a competitive match. Plus our record v Wales is very good. Australia are fairly unlikely to finish top of the group so I think they might get taught another lesson by SA.

All I got on this site before last Sat was that form and histroy are meaningless - as it is a unique event it is what happens on the day. Now you argue form and history in relation to Italy and Wales. Which is it?

It's an intersting tightrope though - beat Italy and you finish top; lose to Italy and you may miss out on a QF. Italy looked pretty good the other day in attack - the game against Ireland is their grand final.

If OZ get their players back on deck and forwards front up, not sure they will lose a lot sleep over SA - beaten them in their last 3 tests I think.

But actual playing ability is meaningful.

If you think Ireland are the better side its not unreasoanable to think they are more likely to win. As for Ireland vs Italy, they should win comfortably.
The 3Ns this year was used as a warm up and squad tester, I wouldnt read any more into that than the Pisland nations cup which Japan won...the same Japan who just got spanked by a better Tonga side.Dont go talking anbout history and form the citeing hhistory taken out of context.
Australia and SA are tightly matched sides, and either could win. Im favouring SA simply because it tends to be the more pragmatic and physical sides that win world cup knockouts. Its certainly ridiculous to suggest, as you seem to, that Australia would see SA as an easy tie.

"that Australia would see SA as an easy tie"...

no way!!! Until the loss to Ireland, the 2 sides I was not keen on the Ws meeting was England and SA, both who are fairly forward dominated sides.

So defo no way I would have thought an aussie see SA as an easy tie. winning in the 3Ns, whilst very good and difficult, will not be the same in a RWC knockout game. Only played SA twice, once was in 95's opening game, and we lost that quite badly, considering we went into that game as champs, and the 2nd with the great drop from Larkham that won us the game, but no way was that easy!! The final after against France was easy!!

SA will certainly be buoyed by the Irish effort and will be confident they have the game to beat Australia. Some welcome additions to the Wallaby lineup will be welcome and they will be praying for a dry deck as well to further help their chances. But these are two top sides. Australia have done well this year over SA and got 2 out of 3 the previous year. Australia might think they have the edge over NZ as well but they only won the second match. They´ll certainly, and rightly, believe they can beat them but they´ll have a huge game against SA beforehand.

Ireland have a good record against Wales but they lost this year´s 6N match and that was not like the 3N this year. So Ireland have every right to be confident but this is a match against Wales away from home for both of them and both sides look to be in good nick.

Such even quarter finals ahead that will make the semi finalists not only tough to pick but tough to play for the teams who get there. This week´s game against France is another crucial game for shaping the knockout phases of the tournament. Who will have the puff, match fitness, form and the least injuries to get to the final. Some great rugby awaits. If you wanted a tournament that brought the best out of the NH and SH sides, then you´ve certainly got it.

The Aussie pack will probably up their game considerably after that loss. They'll feel humiliated. Here's a link to Bob Dwyer's view of the game. Since he's an Aussie his analysis is entirely on the Wallabies and their failings. He doesn't really say anything about Ireland.

Well, Bob said nothing any Wallaby supporter would have disagreed with.

Not till the last 5-10 minutes was any passion shown by the players, or sense of urgency. Unlike the Irish, who did the correct thing, i.e. passion and urgency form the 1st whistle.

The bit about 'flukey play', the ones that may give you a score without working hard for it, damn how true!! To me smacks of lack of respect even maybe, as if training ground moves wil have worked against a side that was out to play hard rugby. It hurts as a W supporter to say so, but our attack was berrift of quality.

No patience, looking for the offload and flashy breaks, same as I said about our loose forwards earlier, why didn't they get their heads down and shove!!! No, they had their heads up, looking for the quick attack... all that meant was the pack was shoved backwards. As a forward myself how depressing it was to win hard balls and watch the backs fluff it, for us to go back 5 metres to help win the ball back, or to scrum down without the head.

I think we have an awesome back line, with some dazzling individual moves, but lack the coherent intricate back plays that we used to have as a squad. Even in the dire days of Eddie's reign there was always excitment when the backs get the ball, eventually. Now we rely on individual skills. Yes that does work, and we have won a few games from it, but a side needs well rehersed plays when things are not going right, just to get some momentum and confidence back, then let's take the flashy stuff out and show the world.

Maybe his last paragraph was true, did the Wallabies treat the Irish with less respect than Elsom seems to have implied they would have?

But we're not out of it yet, so whilst we're in it I still think we will win the cup, but let's get the basic and intensity right forst.

But actual playing ability is meaningful.

If you think Ireland are the better side its not unreasoanable to think they are more likely to win. As for Ireland vs Italy, they should win comfortably.
The 3Ns this year was used as a warm up and squad tester, I wouldnt read any more into that than the Pisland nations cup which Japan won...the same Japan who just got spanked by a better Tonga side.Dont go talking anbout history and form the citeing hhistory taken out of context.
Australia and SA are tightly matched sides, and either could win. Im favouring SA simply because it tends to be the more pragmatic and physical sides that win world cup knockouts. Its certainly ridiculous to suggest, as you seem to, that Australia would see SA as an easy tie.

No idea what you mean by using history taken out of context. Anyway, it is irrelevant. Read the post. Not saying Ireland will not beat Italy. Not saying Italy will beat Ireland. Not sure it will be comfortable though - the last game between the 2 pretty close I recall and the pressure of a potential all or nothing last pool game might be very interesting to watch.
Anyway, I did not say (either) it would be an easy game for W against SA. But I don't think they fear them or would be as anxious about playing them as some other teams would be. They played and beat them twice this year and beat them twice last year.

As for the comment that this year's 3N being a squad tester and warm ups, that is rubbish. Have a look at the teams W and AB fielded when they played each other twice - they were their strongest sides. Only SA took the proverbial in their first 2 matches with an understrength team. They fielded their best side against W and were beaten as well.

I do think Australia were complacent. I don't know that for sure but it's just the impression I got. It's a mistake most teams make at some stage. It happened to Ireland against Scotland in 2010. We hadn't lost to them in ages. We were at home. We expected to another triple crown. Scotland came with ferocious intensity. By the time we realized we were in a real battle, all the momentum was with them. They had wind in their sails and we couldn't turn it around. We lost.

imo i would say Wales (hopeful and believe we have the confidence to take ireland) france (both france and england have been poor but i think the french have shown alot more potential than england) New zealand (no disrespect but as long as things go to plan they face scotland/argentina in quarters and who wouldnt go for NZ?) and SA (just believe after watching the aus ireland match that SA would dominate up front)

England vs Ireland

New Zealand vs South Africa looks like the popular vote.

Does that make us unpopular Mafia?

Rob B wrote:

leinsterbaby wrote:

Rob B wrote:

nganboy wrote:The real Ireland are the team that play one great game - per tournament.

And I'm not sure that Aus defence is that poor. Have they leaked tries against many teams lower ranked (or even higher ranked) recently?

They haven't conceded a try this tournament and look well placed to maintain that at pool level.

My picks are:


Australia v England

SA v New Zealand

Well Ireland have only conceded one try and I can't see us losing to Italy as they have never beaten us in a competitive match. Plus our record v Wales is very good. Australia are fairly unlikely to finish top of the group so I think they might get taught another lesson by SA.

All I got on this site before last Sat was that form and histroy are meaningless - as it is a unique event it is what happens on the day. Now you argue form and history in relation to Italy and Wales. Which is it?

It's an intersting tightrope though - beat Italy and you finish top; lose to Italy and you may miss out on a QF. Italy looked pretty good the other day in attack - the game against Ireland is their grand final.

If OZ get their players back on deck and forwards front up, not sure they will lose a lot sleep over SA - beaten them in their last 3 tests I think.

Agreed. I think it will be Irelands toughest pool game. Italy were worryingly good v Russia. I think we will scrape through with a few heart attacks.

Rob B wrote:

But actual playing ability is meaningful.

If you think Ireland are the better side its not unreasoanable to think they are more likely to win. As for Ireland vs Italy, they should win comfortably.
The 3Ns this year was used as a warm up and squad tester, I wouldnt read any more into that than the Pisland nations cup which Japan won...the same Japan who just got spanked by a better Tonga side.Dont go talking anbout history and form the citeing hhistory taken out of context.
Australia and SA are tightly matched sides, and either could win. Im favouring SA simply because it tends to be the more pragmatic and physical sides that win world cup knockouts. Its certainly ridiculous to suggest, as you seem to, that Australia would see SA as an easy tie.

No idea what you mean by using history taken out of context. Anyway, it is irrelevant. Read the post. Not saying Ireland will not beat Italy. Not saying Italy will beat Ireland. Not sure it will be comfortable though - the last game between the 2 pretty close I recall and the pressure of a potential all or nothing last pool game might be very interesting to watch.
Anyway, I did not say (either) it would be an easy game for W against SA. But I don't think they fear them or would be as anxious about playing them as some other teams would be. They played and beat them twice this year and beat them twice last year.

As for the comment that this year's 3N being a squad tester and warm ups, that is rubbish. Have a look at the teams W and AB fielded when they played each other twice - they were their strongest sides. Only SA took the proverbial in their first 2 matches with an understrength team. They fielded their best side against W and were beaten as well.

The ABs rested players though v SA Oz didn't which was the difference really.

Feckless Rogue wrote:The Aussie pack will probably up their game considerably after that loss. They'll feel humiliated. Here's a link to Bob Dwyer's view of the game. Since he's an Aussie his analysis is entirely on the Wallabies and their failings. He doesn't really say anything about Ireland.

Had to laugh when I read the bit about looking forward to Alan Gaffney returning to Australia.In both Leinster and Ireland over the last 4 years I have hardly seen anything impressive from a Gaffney coached backline,I feel he's very over rated.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:Had to laugh when I read the bit about looking forward to Alan Gaffney returning to Australia.In both Leinster and Ireland over the last 4 years I have hardly seen anything impressive from a Gaffney coached backline,I feel he's very over rated.

I laughed at that part too. Maybe he was once a brilliant backs coach. I think he does have a big reputation in Australia which must have been earned somehow. But he doesn't have much of one here. Leinster were much better attackers before he arrived and straight after he left. Ireland's backs have gotten progressively more anonymous in attack the longer he's been coaching them.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:

Feckless Rogue wrote:The Aussie pack will probably up their game considerably after that loss. They'll feel humiliated. Here's a link to Bob Dwyer's view of the game. Since he's an Aussie his analysis is entirely on the Wallabies and their failings. He doesn't really say anything about Ireland.

Had to laugh when I read the bit about looking forward to Alan Gaffney returning to Australia.In both Leinster and Ireland over the last 4 years I have hardly seen anything impressive from a Gaffney coached backline,I feel he's very over rated.

Gaffney Aparently has very little input in the Ireland squad. The Leinster backs have looked pretty good to be fair.

Wales Vs England
South Africa Vs New Zealand
This would be great semi finals.

Though a Final of Wales Vs Namibia would suit me quite nicely thanks

They looked good last year when Schmidt took over,the 2 years before that were pretty uninspiring.We won the Heineken on the back of a grizzled forward pack,a strong defence and a bit of luck.

RubyGuby wrote:Does that make us unpopular Mafia?

makes us underdogs...!

it would seem that wales are unpopular. nobody wants wales to get to the final...except wales

mckay1402 wrote:it would seem that wales are unpopular. nobody wants wales to get to the final...except wales

Where does that come from? Thinking they wont is different to wanting.

In a popularity contest its pretty obvious who would lose between Wales and England, even SA can get as widely despised as us no matter how hard they try.
Hands up any Australians, Welsh, Irish, Scotts, Argentinians, French or Greyghosts that would be happy to see "our Jonny" win another world cup so we can get two 15 minute documentaires about him at the start of every 6 nations arther than just the one?

You can take away our freedom, but you can never take our unpopularity!

Ireland clear favourites against Wales, just look at the recent history Mun!!!!

[quote="Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler"]

mckay1402 wrote:
Hands up any Australians, Welsh, Irish, Scotts, Argentinians, French or Greyghosts that would be happy to see "our Jonny" win another world cup so we can get two 15 minute documentaires about him at the start of every 6 nations arther than just the one?

You can take away our freedom, but you can never take our unpopularity!

Well not me!!!

[quote="OzT"]

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

mckay1402 wrote:
Hands up any Australians, Welsh, Irish, Scotts, Argentinians, French or Greyghosts that would be happy to see "our Jonny" win another world cup so we can get two 15 minute documentaires about him at the start of every 6 nations arther than just the one?

You can take away our freedom, but you can never take our unpopularity!

Well not me!!!

Perish the thought, you lot have worked too hard for it.......

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
Hands up any Australians, Welsh, Irish, Scotts, Argentinians, French or Greyghosts that would be happy to see "our Jonny" win another world cup so we can get two 15 minute documentaires about him at the start of every 6 nations arther than just the one?

Feck off.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:In a popularity contest its pretty obvious who would lose between Wales and England, even SA can get as widely despised as us no matter how hard they try. You can take away our freedom, but you can never take our unpopularity!

It only seems you are more unpopular because the Celtic nations are well represented by their posters.

You couldn't have had that borefest in 2007 without us.

Hey roddersm, been told today's Arthur's birthday, thus being given coupons for 2 free guinesses.... you be joining in the celebrations of your national drinks's father??

OzT wrote:Hey roddersm, been told today's Arthur's birthday, thus being given coupons for 2 free guinesses.... you be joining in the celebrations of your national drinks's father??

By jeebus I forgot it was today! Might see if I can get out for a few sneaky ones later

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:You can take away our freedom, but you can never take our unpopularity!

It's funny how Guinness just introduced this "Arthurs Day" as a marketing ploy a few years ago to promote and sell Guinness, and already Irish people are treating it as if it's a real day in the calendar, like Christmas or Easter.

It isn't?? I was told it was!! Bit like the other grog maker, Mr Daniel, Jack's birthday.....

RubyGuby wrote:Ireland clear favourites against Wales, just look at the recent history Mun!!!!

Recent history?

Like Wales beating Ireland in the 6Ns?

Or more recent, like Wales beating England at home with no possession only for England to crush Ireland at home?

wales606 wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:Ireland clear favourites against Wales, just look at the recent history Mun!!!!

Recent history?

Like Wales beating Ireland in the 6Ns?

Or more recent, like Wales beating England at home with no possession only for England to crush Ireland at home?

Well there you have it. Ireland have no chance. None. They are massive underdogs for this one.

wales606 wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:Ireland clear favourites against Wales, just look at the recent history Mun!!!!

Recent history?

Like Wales beating Ireland in the 6Ns?

Or more recent, like Wales beating England at home with no possession only for England to crush Ireland at home?

Wales didn't beat Ireland Jonathan Kaplan beat Ireland in the six nations. Would love if he was ref for the Ireland Wales quarter.

Wales didn't beat Ireland Jonathan Kaplan beat Ireland in the six nations. Would love if he was ref for the Ireland Wales quarter.

RubyGuby wrote:Wales didn't beat Ireland Jonathan Kaplan beat Ireland in the six nations. Would love if he was ref for the Ireland Wales quarter.

No Wales beat Ireland.

Shame I went the way it did. Bit Ireland didn't have it in them to better Wales unfortunately unfair try.

A win is a win. Yous are cheatin feckers but a win is win

roddersm wrote:

wales606 wrote:

RubyGuby wrote:Ireland clear favourites against Wales, just look at the recent history Mun!!!!

Recent history?

Like Wales beating Ireland in the 6Ns?

Or more recent, like Wales beating England at home with no possession only for England to crush Ireland at home?

Well there you have it. Ireland have no chance. None. They are massive underdogs for this one.

Thats not what I was saying. Thats what RG was saying about Wales

I think...


Ita v Wal

SA v Aus

Eng v NZ

Fra v Age

With Wales, Australia, France and erm, England going through (not really, its a rwc too soon for most of that squad).

You think Italy are going to finish above Ireland and Australia to top the group?

Feckless Rogue wrote:You think Italy are going to finish above Ireland and Australia to top the group?

Don't you?????

damage_13 wrote:I think...


Ita v Wal

SA v Aus

Eng v NZ

Fra v Age

With Wales, Australia, France and erm, England going through (not really, its a rwc too soon for most of that squad).

Italy are going to finish above Ireland and Australia are they?

That my friend is why you should never, ever go near a bookies.

Just figured it out by the way, for Italy to finish ahead of Australia, Australia would have to lose to Russia....

oh crap... far too much coffee and not enough time lol

Italy and Australia to go through in pool C, for reasons I explained in the other thread

In case any Interest OZ 67 USA 5. 11 tries. Bonus point secured after 28 mins.

Rob B wrote:In case any Interest OZ 67 USA 5. 11 tries. Bonus point secured after 28 mins.

Pretty good for a second in the pool team.

They´re not second at the end though leinsterbaby according to some. Apparently Italy are going to be the big movers and shakers.

That game for Australia did nothing for them really. They did what they have to but the result is pretty much a head banging against the wall exercise. It doesn´t bring back the last game against Ireland. They have to focus now on their lineup. Faingaa had a sickening collision and Beale walked off at halftime.

Australia have Russia to repair their wounded and then face a huge physical battle with SA. Don´t see how Faingaa can come back so will AAC move to centre and hope Ioane or JOC are back to go on the wing? Robbie Deans was confident of the depth of Australia before the tournament. Now he realises he needs his top players back as the cover is not so flash.

RubyGuby wrote:It's not a prediction Mckay - I had a vision last night

I also saw into the future on 606V2 and all I could pick up in the year 2037 was a lot of english fans on here asking the Wales fans not to keep going on about 2011

Whatever it is that you are taking olease tell me, i could do with it and the missus definitely could