Federer - The end of an era?

As Roger Federer winds down his career his numerous achievements and accolades will undoubtedly be discussed for many years to come.

One major contribution, oft overlooked, is his huge contribution to increasing the popularity and marketability of tennis worldwide. Last year Federer was listed as the second highest earning sportsman in the world (gross figures comprising all earnings: prize money, endorsements, appearance fees etc). Tiger Woods topped the list. In comparison, Rafa Nadal, earned $27 million, less than half of Federer's $61+ million, despite being the number one ranked player in the world and enjoying a far more successful year on the courts.

This is one of many stats that serves to highlight Federer's popularity amongst tennis fans, and his general marketability worldwide. TMF was in large part responsible for increasing the popularity of the game; taking it out of the doldrums of the S&V dominated nineties. I'm sure his all-court game, the fusion of power and finesse, and his incredible tear through the record books brought many a new fan to the sport, and helped recapture the imagination of jaded enthusiasts. Federer has transcended tennis; turned cursory onlookers into fanatics, stood shoulder to shoulder with, and indeed surpassed, the world's greatest sporting stars: Roger Federer is now a brand in itself.

But what comes next?

The Federer torch is slowly flickering and fading. What will happen to his legion of fans when he finally decides to call it a day? Indeed what effect, if any will this have on the popularity of the sport? Will tennis worldwide suffer in popularity following his demise, or will continue as it is, or perhaps even increase in popularity as newer generations take up this mantle of excellence?



emancipator

Great post. Wish we had a star system like good old 606.

I think federer plans on playing on for maybe longer than antcipated. I mean has he really declined in comparison to last year? Right now his results are like that of a good or even great player having a so so year given that he was one point away from a second GS final. Seeing as he's a shadow of what he once was he's allowed to throw in years like this. As long as he doesn't decline soon from where he is now he still has many chances to win big and going from last years level to this years it still looks ok. The only worrying thing is the court speeds all playing at a uniform slow pace that could still and probably has already hurt his game.

Fed should stick around he is still capable of great performances and I think if he plays well and gets a good draw he can still win a grandslam. Plus a 61 million dollar a year payday is kind of hard to walkaway from eventhough Roger has plenty of money. Tennis players never even dreamed of that kind of change.

Unless the game wakes up and reverses the trend from virtuoisity to endurance I'll be off. I really can't be bothered to watch these slugfests.

Just to save anyone the time, I will close the door on my way out.

Fed reminds me of Ayrton Senna, a sublime sportsman, capable of supreme achievments, yet lots of emotions, tears, silly mistakes, amazing marketing, great money, pushing the sport to another level.

We will see other champions, as we've seen in F1, but the overall quality, be it muscular aspects of Tennis now, or the tech advances of F1, the sport will never be the same and for that reason the champions will not be the same.

That's not to say that there will not be talents and superb players, just that for us who had the luck to watch his era of tennis, there will always be that little artistic sport side missing.

Jahu wrote:Fed reminds me of Ayrton Senna, a sublime sportsman, capable of supreme achievments, yet lots of emotions, tears, silly mistakes, amazing marketing, great money, pushing the sport to another level.

Nice comparison

The question of Federer’s future will inevitably persist until he retires. However, on 2011 form I see absolutely no reason why the man should even consider retiring.

Notwithstanding his 2011 record of 2 semis, a final and a quarter Federer can take some comfort from the fact that he has been the only man (don’t count Murray in Cincinnati) to beat Djoko. Furthermore his game matches up better against Djokovic than Nadal.

Plus when you compare a 30 year old federer at this stage in his career to other players from previous era’s who were 30 or nearing retirement Feds current level probably renders him as the youngest 30 year old the game has ever seen.

Yes Sampras won a Us open in the twilight of his career and Connors got the semis at the tail end of his 30’s but physically they were struggling and aside from those individual performances they were not making finals or semis of other slams. The difference being is that Federer is still playing at a high level on most occasions and until he starts getting knocked out of slams in the first week I don’t think he should retire.

Welcome to the board boom boom. How did you hear about us?

I too agree with Boom Boom (Becker?).

Eman : I think you are celebrating TMF's funeral a couple of years early.

There's still a lot to look forward to imo

boom boom wrote:Plus when you compare a 30 year old federer at this stage in his career to other players from previous era’s who were 30 or nearing retirement Feds current level probably renders him as the youngest 30 year old the game has ever seen.

And that despite a much more physical game nowadays. Where are the other 30 plus players of his generation?

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:I too agree with Boom Boom (Becker?).

Eman : I think you are celebrating TMF's funeral a couple of years early.

There's still a lot to look forward to imo

Hello



I think my OP has been misunderstood..

I expect Federer to keep playing for at least another 2 seasons..

The question posed was, what effect will his retirement (when he eventually goes) have on the popularity and marketability of tennis?

Personally, I think the game will carry on as it is, however, there is no doubt that TMF brought a lot of new fans to the sport or re-ignited that passion for people who'd grown distant from the game. I will continue to follow tennis but with less enthusiasm until a new player appears that appeals to my senses. I suspect a lot of Federer fans may be in the same boat, keeping an eye on proceedings but without any kind of active support. I can't see myself attending tournaments purely to watch the likes of Nadal, Novak, etc.

In terms of marketability, I expect Fed will take on some kind of ambassadorial role to promote the sport, being the nice guy that he is.

When Fed first started dominating it would have been expected to see players emerging with a similar kind of game in the next generation, inspired by him. Sadly, this doesn't seem to be the case. Perhaps because he is a unique talent. Unfortunately, I expect to see a lot of Novak/Nadal clones over the next few generations; physical beasts who can run down everything.



emancipator

emancipator wrote:

Jeremy_Kyle wrote:I too agree with Boom Boom (Becker?).

Eman : I think you are celebrating TMF's funeral a couple of years early.

There's still a lot to look forward to imo

Hello



I think my OP has been misunderstood..

I expect Federer to keep playing for at least another 2 seasons..

The question posed was, what effect will his retirement (when he eventually goes) have on the popularity and marketability of tennis?

Personally, I think the game will carry on as it is, however, there is no doubt that TMF brought a lot of new fans to the sport or re-ignited that passion for people who'd grown distant from the game. I will continue to follow tennis but with less enthusiasm until a new player appears that appeals to my senses. I suspect a lot of Federer fans may be in the same boat, keeping an eye on proceedings but without any kind of active support. I can't see myself attending tournaments purely to watch the likes of Nadal, Novak, etc.

In terms of marketability, I expect Fed will take on some kind of ambassadorial role to promote the sport, being the nice guy that he is.

When Fed first started dominating it would have been expected to see players emerging with a similar kind of game in the next generation, inspired by him. Sadly, this doesn't seem to be the case. Perhaps because he is a unique talent. Unfortunately, I expect to see a lot of Novak/Nadal clones over the next few generations; physical beasts who can run down everything.



emancipator

emancipator, how can you put Nadal and Novak in the same sentence when it comes to tennis style....start enjoying Nole asap, you may regret it in hindsight.
If you love pure tennis, you can't say not to Nole's relentless crushing aggression.

NITB,

Novak is definitely more exciting to watch than The Nadull..

His aggression on court this year has been a revelation. He is much more fun to watch when he takes control of rallies. I think part of his problem in '09 (along with the serve) was that he was too reactive, too defensive.

Of course this year he has been much better in that respect.

However, I suspect that this is not quite his natural game (unlike say Federer) and I can still see long swades in matches when he refers back to type, ie. becomes quite negative and passive. I suspect that that is his more natural instinct on court. I wouldn't be too surprised if he returned back to that style of play on a consistent basis if he were to lose a few matches.

It remains to be seen how he reacts to a prolonged period of adversity on court.

"However, I suspect that this is not quite his natural game (unlike say Federer) "

It is. Trust me on this one!

The problem is, everyone looks more or less defensive compared to Federer...

His void will eventually leave men's tennis in near he same boat as the women's game (i.e in the doldrums).

Josiah Maiestas wrote:His void will eventually leave men's tennis in near he same boat as the women's game (i.e in the doldrums).

Yep, and the similarities won't end there.

bogbrush wrote:

Josiah Maiestas wrote:His void will eventually leave men's tennis in near he same boat as the women's game (i.e in the doldrums).

Yep, and the similarities won't end there.

Oh BB, surely YOU cannot be serious ... mind you, I do partly understand you, I do miss Henin....A LOT....

If this new style of physical matches is marketed in the right way then what the sport may lose in old fans it may gain in new.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:If this new style of physical matches is marketed in the right way then what the sport may lose in old fans it may gain in new.

I must say I really dislike this new marketing strategy, I noticed it last year with ATP site changing players' photos, and they were all obviously told to look "tough", some players look rather hilarious. Plus this cheap, dramatic music, I mean I didn't know tennis was so popular among 12 year olds...

noleisthebest wrote:

break_in_the_fifth wrote:If this new style of physical matches is marketed in the right way then what the sport may lose in old fans it may gain in new.

I must say I really dislike this new marketing strategy, I noticed it last year with ATP site changing players' photos, and they were all obviously told to look "tough", some players look rather hilarious. Plus this cheap, dramatic music, I mean I didn't know tennis was so popular among 12 year olds...

The power of marketing I guess; anything can be made popular to anyone.

Y I Man wrote:Welcome to the board boom boom. How did you hear about us?

Hi there pleasure to meet you all , i was former 606 observer and towards its end one of the OP's metioned this forum which is really good. Bar the occasional 'handbag fight' (normally during slams) I have found 606v to be a much more mature debate on sports !

TMF himself has said that travelling around the globe will be more difficult when his children start to go to nursery school, and that when he's done with tennis it's Mirka's time to do something for a career with his support. He has also said he wants his children to see him play.

There are the Olympics at Wimbledon in 2012 - one of his remaining ambitions in the sport. I don't know where DC sits in his priorities, but he played more DC than usual this year to get Switzerland back into the World Group so he may make more effort in the DC these next couple of years.

At the end of 2012 the children will be 3, which is the age (in the UK at least) when many start nursery school.

I'd expect the end of next year to be the first occasion on which retirement is a genuine option amongst those which he considers for the immedite future - if his standard is still good and he's enjoying it, I'd expect him to continue. I would be surprised if he battled on past 2013 unless things were going really well for him.

Will the Olympics next year be played on grass or DecoTurfII (I thought it had to be DecoTurf set by ITF standards?)

lydian wrote:Will the Olympics next year be played on grass or DecoTurfII (I thought it had to be DecoTurf set by ITF standards?)

Can you imagine it if they dug up CC to replace the grass with DecoTurf!!

Only the late great HM Bateman could begin to do justice to such a turn of events http://www.hmbateman.com/wimbledon_2.htm

lydian wrote:Will the Olympics next year be played on grass or DecoTurfII (I thought it had to be DecoTurf set by ITF standards?)

I imagine it'll be on whatever's slower.

TMF himself has said that travelling around the globe will be more difficult when his children start to go to nursery school

Might aswell let Wawrinka home school them as he always loses early these days.

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Will the Olympics next year be played on grass or DecoTurfII (I thought it had to be DecoTurf set by ITF standards?)

I imagine it'll be on whatever's slower.

Just incase neither are slow enough for the clay boyz they'll have a back up plan --> http://www.uae-sport-guide.com/graphics/news/tennis/11/mini_tennis.jpg

emancipator wrote:In comparison, Rafa Nadal, earned $27 million, less than half of Federer's $61+ million, despite being the number one ranked player in the world and enjoying a far more successful year on the courts.

The ATP web site quotes $43,647,677 for Rafa (Singles and Doubles).

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Players/Top-Players/Rafael-Nadal.aspx

List from Forbes - Federer at #4 and Nadal at #12 as of May, 2011.

http://www.forbes.com/2011/05/31/highest-paid-athletes_slide.html

The ATP website quote is for Rafa's career prize money.

The stats I provided were for total income (prize money, endorsements etc) for 2010 only (Jan-Dec).

emancipator wrote:The ATP website quote is for Rafa's career prize money.

The stats I provided were for total income (prize money, endorsements etc) for 2010 only (Jan-Dec).

Ah ok.... thanks.

Lets face it, none of them are badly off are they!

lydian wrote:Will the Olympics next year be played on grass or DecoTurfII (I thought it had to be DecoTurf set by ITF standards?)

According to this link, it is on grass. ( This link downloads a PDF on your computer - http://www.atpworldtour.com/~/media/F79B2FD437894655A4E9886B80EFE27D.ashx )

Might be good for Federer's last roll of the Olympic dice then...

I think the great man has already won his last slam at the AO 2010.

16 slams is an amazing achievement. Can't imagine any player breaking this record in at least 10 years. Maybe in 15 years, someone will win 17 or 18 slams and establish a new record.

The Fed record may go quicker than you think, unless Rog can add to it himself over the next few months. On present form, Djoko and Rafa look set to dominate the GS. Rafa, but for Djoko, would probably have won three this year and it's Djoko that's keeping the Spaniard short of the Fed record.
Two things could happen. Either Rafa, thru his own efforts or a dropping off from Nole, will get closer to the Fed total or Nole will go on a Fed-like blitz of the slams and win around seven or eight in three seasons and put himself in striking distance.
For those who would like Fed to hang on at the top, the best scenario would be for Fed to extend his total, or that neither Nole nor Rafa dominates. Can't see anyone - AS YET - coming through to challenge the big four. Is Tomic a man for the future?

sirfredperry wrote:The Fed record may go quicker than you think, unless Rog can add to it himself over the next few months. On present form, Djoko and Rafa look set to dominate the GS. Rafa, but for Djoko, would probably have won three this year and it's Djoko that's keeping the Spaniard short of the Fed record.
Two things could happen. Either Rafa, thru his own efforts or a dropping off from Nole, will get closer to the Fed total or Nole will go on a Fed-like blitz of the slams and win around seven or eight in three seasons and put himself in striking distance.
For those who would like Fed to hang on at the top, the best scenario would be for Fed to extend his total, or that neither Nole nor Rafa dominates. Can't see anyone - AS YET - coming through to challenge the big four. Is Tomic a man for the future?

Djoko has 13 to go. He is two behind Fed's trajectory at the same career stage. Getting 3 slams this year has taken too much out of him to see it repeated or even bettered as often as necessary - particularly if he has to beat Rafa several more times to do so, which looks not unlikely.

Rafa is obviously closer to Fed - he's also one ahead of Fed's trajectory at the same career stage - but 7 more slams for a player who has huge mileage behind him already having started winning so young, who has such a physical game, who is not truly at home on hard courts, who has never managed to bring his best game to each of the 4 slams in a season, and who has had consistent problems with injuries which seem to be a product of his playing style is an enormous ask.

Neither of them is able to play at their best with the economy that Fed has been able to and the game is getting more physical by the year - it's almost inconceivable that either of them can squeeze similar longevity out of themselves. The worst thing that can happen in terms of longevity is if they spend another year battling each other to a standstill.

I am sure that they've both got more slams in them - a fair few, but 7 for Rafa or 13 for Djoko? I don't think so.

Quite agree with the remark about the ever-increasing physical nature of the game. It's quite possible that Djoko and Rafa will do each other in, although you have to factor in to their, seemingly, endless matches the interminable time taken twixt points.
It's not quite so bad if they're BOTH taking extra time and it's at least more understandable after some of the monstrous rallies they had in the USO.
Just wonder how long Rafa and Nole would have taken to complete that 16-14 final set that Rog and Andy R "rattled off" at SW19 in 2009.

sirfredperry wrote: Just wonder how long Rafa and Nole would have taken to complete that 16-14 final set that Rog and Andy R "rattled off" at SW19 in 2009.

It does not bear thinking. I found that match pretty boring even at the pace it was played. I think that the answer is that they'd not both be physically capable of getting there and one of them would have 'won' the physical battle well before then - but it would not be pretty.

sirfredperry wrote:...and it's at least more understandable after some of the monstrous rallies they had in the USO.

That's where I seriously disagree with this time taking. Cause past and present players could also have extended their rallies had they known they would get away with taking that long between points. But they played a tennis which involved more risk because they knew or thought that the time was limited.

This is what Stich refers to when talking about "partnership" between players and tournament organisers. Nadal was allowed thi sextra time at first cause it's indeed a partnership. He became a very marketable products and people wanted to do business with him. Especially if this implied having more balanced matches between him and Federer.

barrystar wrote:Neither of them is able to play at their best with the economy that Fed has been able to and the game is getting more physical by the year - it's almost inconceivable that either of them can squeeze similar longevity out of themselves. The worst thing that can happen in terms of longevity is if they spend another year battling each other to a standstill.

Federer did 3-slams-a-year in 2004, 2006 and 2007, and 2-slams-a-year in 2005 and 2009.

Djokovic has 3 slams and he is already injured this year. DC for example.

Nadal, who did 3-slams-a-year in 2010, and 2 slams in 2008, should consider playing the economical style of Federer, if he wants to get close to Federer, provided Federer does not add any more, as SirFredPerry says.

If Murray continues to bite at their heals, the game of attrition, will continue becoming much more physical, IMVHO.