The Tri Nation trifecta.

How good are the All Blacks really? Are they unbeatable and a sure thing for the title or are there little chinks in their armour.

I am sure there are a number of countries’ fans who must be asking themselves this question on a regular basis. I myself have been pondering this question for some time now. Well, now I have to first ponder the question of how good is Australia after their loss to Ireland and are the weaknesses that was showed up in the Ireland matchup real and unlikely to be sorted and how will all their injuries effect them. The fact is if Australia can’t put out their top team they are most definitely vulnerable as has been proved by Samoa.

Not that I can say too much as our second stringers have been blown off the park by Australia and New Zealand only a few weeks ago. What I can offer as extenuating circumstances though is that New Zealand and Australia are the two best teams in world rugby.

So let’s compare some aspects of the three Tri nation teams who will be fighting it out for the right to play the survivor of the six nations for the title.


Tight five.
NZ – Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu, Owen Franks, Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock
Important subs – Ali Williams, Ben franks, Andrew Hore, Anthony Boric

SA – Gurthro Steenkamp, John Smit, Jannie du Plessis, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield
Important subs – Danie Rossouw, Bismarck du Plessis, Beast Mtwarira

OZ –Sekope Kepu, Moore,Ben Alexander, James Horwill, Dan Vickerman
Australia – Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper

New Zealand has proven to have the most consistent performers at scrum time, SA have proven to be the best line out operators and both NZ and SA have tight fives that can dominate on the day. Australia has shown against New Zealand that they can compete and gain parity with their tight five but doubtful whether they can do it for 80 minutes.

NZ – 8/10
SA – 8/10
OZ – 6/10

Back row.
NZ – Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read.
Important subs – Adam Thompson, Victor Vito

SA – Schalk Burger, Heinrich Brussow, Pierre Spies
Important subs – Willem Alberts, Frans Louw

OZ – David Pocock, Rocky Elsom, Radike Samo
Important subs – Wycliff Palu

Assuming Read is fit and Pocock is fit all three these teams have a very competitive loose trio, in Brussow, McCaw and Pocock you have three of the best pilferers of ruck ball in the business, with their best available and on form very little to choose.

NZ – 8/10
SA – 8/10
OZ – 8/10

Half backs.
NZ – Piri Weepu, Dan Carter
Important subs – Colin slade, Andy Ellis, Cowan

SA – Fourie du Preez, Morne Steyn
Important subs – Francois Hougaard, Butch James, Ruan Pienaar

OZ – Will Genia, Quade Cooper
Important subs – Luke burgess.

On form and with enough space Genia and cooper are the most creative in attack, for consistency you can look no further than Carter and whoever is paired with him. For strategic kick from hands and reading the match situation du Preez and Steyn shades it, although they lack in creativity on attack. I don’t think any of these three teams really want to go to their subs, perhaps SA with the energetic Francois Hougaard may have the best option for impact from the bench.

NZ – 8/10
SA – 7/10
OZ – 9/10 depending on parity with their forwards otherwise 7/10

Midfield
NZ – Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith
Important subs – Sonny Bill Williams,

SA – Frans Steyn, Jaque Fourie
Important subs – Jean de Villiers, Juan du Jongh

OZ – Berrick Barnes, Adam Ashley Cooper

Important subs – Pat McCabe, Anthony Faainga

Defensively SA and New Zealand are perhaps a shade better off than OZ, but on attack OZ and NZ provides more creativity, but then frans Steyn has shown SA to have more options and more effectiveness on attack. NZ has the most depth here with Kahui and SBW who will both be very effective if put in the midfield.

NZ – 9/10
SA – 8/10
OZ – 8/10

Back three
NZ – Richard Kahui, Corey Jane, Israel Dagg.
Important subs – Mills Muliaina.

SA – JP Pietersen, Bryan Habana, Patrick Lambie
Important subs – Gio Aplon

OZ – Mitchell, Ioane, Beale
Important subs – O’Connor

Although solid on defence, the only player that brings any creativity and lethal options to the attack is Patrick Lambie, but then he perhaps doesn’t have the necessary confidence yet to be as effective as he potentially could be. Curtly Beale in my opinion is the most dangerous fullback currently in rugby union. NZ has the most consistent and effective back three, but in my opinion Muliaina has had his day.

NZ – 9/10
OZ – 8/10
SA – 7/10

As we all know what happens on match day is what will decide the outcome of the knock out matches, NZ has a slightly easier route by having to play only one of SA or OZ.

For SA to progress they will have to execute with precision and accuracy, they will have to use their forwards to dominate tight phases and breakdowns, use their opportunities well and kick their goals.

For Oz to progress they will somehow have to provide Cooper and Genia the necessary space to be effective, they have not yet shown any kicker with enough reliability to be depending on them for scoring points, so tries will be their goal.

NZ in my opinion are the favourites, not only because they only have to play one of OZ and SA, but because they have the best balance between forwards and backs. If you could put SA’s forwards with OZ’s backs, you would see one hell of a game. But in this case SA and OZ will bring totally different challenges for New Zealand.

Total rating scores
NZ – 42/50
OZ – 39/50
SA – 38/50

This is about as objective as I get.

Note: Information correct at the time of going to the press, this is not necessarily the opinion of any employees of any credible news agency, but they do wish the springboks well in the successful defence of their title.

Fair assesment though i would have docked SA another point in the back 3 , JPP and Lambie are good but Habs is almost dead weight 6/10

And the best Fullback title is surely a contest between Beale and Dagg ,for me Dagg edges it ever so slightly because he knows where the tryline is and finds it repeatedly

True, but Beale is better at the individual brilliant stuff, Dagg runs off his backline support and are fed by them, where no one is as lethal as Beale from deep.

NZ in my opinion are the favourites, not only because they only have to play one of OZ and SA, but because they have the best balance between forwards and backs. If you could put SA’s forwards with OZ’s backs, you would see one hell of a game. But in this case SA and OZ will bring totally different challenges for New Zealand.

........................................................................................................................
NZ are favourites because they have an easy pool, because they are hosting the tournament, and because they have not won the RWC for 24years.


They have this belief that they have a GOD GIVEN RIGHT to own it.

I cant believe i just wrote that.

If New Zealand don't win this Cup they might never win another one, they have the talent, they just need to keep calm and win games.

AlynDavies wrote:If New Zealand don't win this Cup they might never win another one, they have the talent, they just need to keep calm and win games.

Honestly believe only one team can stop them and unfortunately that will not be in the Final. If the boks can field anywhere near a full strength side after Samoa and Aus then the semi is the key game of this RWC.

Of course NZ will win another one. It could take time, but it will (hopefully about 5 weeks).

Boks look impressive. Will be a cracker of a QF assuming Ireland beat Italy.

I think the Blacks will struggle to cope with George North in the final

RubyGuby wrote:I think the Blacks will struggle to cope with George North in the final

I must say, I really enjoy hearing about your man crush, I understand George is quite upset about the restraining order.

I'm just making a rugby comment, can you focus on that please - He's a strong runner who's just getting into his stride, I would anticpate a hattrick tomorrow when he comes off the bench with 15 to go. I've heard that Henry is already developing a strategy to try and control George in the final

I profusely apologise for going of topic.

Will not happen again.


Anyway, what do you think will the scoreline be tomorrow?

I think the scoreline will be Wales 59 Namibia 6

And you know I usually get these things within 2-3 points Mr B

I must admit that the AB's are my favourites but i believe that the Boks can beat them. The Boks have a much stronger mental ability when it comes to world cups. If they meet in the semi final and the Boks can get a foothold in the forwards then i can see them beating the AB's.

RubyGuby wrote:I think the scoreline will be Wales 59 Namibia 6

And you know I usually get these things within 2-3 points Mr B

I predicted wales by 60 on superbru, so hopefully it is as close as that.

eirebilly wrote:I must admit that the AB's are my favourites but i believe that the Boks can beat them. The Boks have a much stronger mental ability when it comes to world cups. If they meet in the semi final and the Boks can get a foothold in the forwards then i can see them beating the AB's.

Good point as much as I prefer not to believe it...

Nice summation Biltong,all things being equal at full strength All Blacks would be favourites just.BUT with there penalty count and the Boks ability to kick goals from there own half.
Injuries and selection,weather,Refs decisions,who ever concedes the less penalties will win.
Argentina may spare you all the trouble,shut down the All Blacks all match,and sneak a last minute win.
Isn`t that how you play knock out matches,risk nothing,defend in depth,and hope yourgoal kickers are on form.

Good analysis Bilt. NZ look the goods with a relatively easy pool and gradual build up to a testing SF. With Read back no real injury probs there. This side of the draw has the worl cup winner.

SA is building very well and look dangerous.

For OZ, nightmare scenarios have all come home at once: dropped the game against Ireland, 11 injuries, hated in every game they play courtesy of NZ media hate campaign which has now become a talking point and is potentially overshadowing the event, which is a shame for the game. Reports OZ fans spat on by Kiwi supporters - reported all over the world. Even the Kiwi RWC boss is embarrassed (though probably smirking off camera).

Anyway, their issue is can they overcome these mountains, compared to the relative calm other teams are having. The Ireland loss was a shock and deeply embarrassing to them. Can this young side bounce back or has the confidence been shot to pieces? Cooper looked tense and nervous in the opening part of the USA game - I think it is getting to him. Barnes will provide some calm.

They have a history of bouncing back after poor performances. But if you strip all the issues back to the bone the core issue is injuries and whether they can field their critical players against SA. They will need Moore, Pocock, Ioane in the side - it looks like they will all be there come QF time. Barnes at 12 will also fill in the goal kicking problems. Reality is Barnes would have been at 12 all year if not for his injuries.

There is still hope if they put their best side on the park for the QF - that has not happened in the tournament yet. Previous form will mean nothing in the knock out stage and that is a good thing. I still rate them against the Boks if they can secure some reliable ball and feed that backline.

Of course, I'm shouting for Italy against Ireland, so this analysis may becaome obsolete! Amazing the crummy draw that Italy has had - they have a 5 day turnaround to play Ireland - essentially a 6N game where Ireland gets 8 days - they must be miffed about that.

The breaking up of the 5s is interesting biltong. The other component to this is how they gel as a whole unit and nz and SA are slightly further ahead again, the injuries to key oz players impacting core combinations.
NZ can take a lot out of that game in terms of execution. Very accurate indeed.
SA have looked good in terms of their gameplan. Solid and back to what they do best.
They do have to temper the results a little given fiji and namibia are where they impressed most.
Against wales they were matched and did enough to win. No more than that.
But to their credit they are playing a controlled deliberate style they are used to and have momentum.
They will be tested from this weekend on big time so for some teams stepping up is a must.
SA Samoa ireland scotland oz and england all have matches that could throw things open again.

Taylorman wrote:

eirebilly wrote:I must admit that the AB's are my favourites but i believe that the Boks can beat them. The Boks have a much stronger mental ability when it comes to world cups. If they meet in the semi final and the Boks can get a foothold in the forwards then i can see them beating the AB's.

Good point as much as I prefer not to believe it...

Totally agree with this. I think whichever team room the NH side of the draw makes the final, they will only be there to make up the numbers. As much as the NH fans can hope for an upset in the final, I just can't see any NH side beating NZ if it gets to that situation.

Taylorman wrote:They do have to temper the results a little given fiji and namibia are where they impressed most.
Against wales they were matched and did enough to win. No more than that.
But to their credit they are playing a controlled deliberate style they are used to and have momentum.
They will be tested from this weekend on big time so for some teams stepping up is a must.

Yeah, look we started real slow against Wales, I am still not certain whether it is all down to Wales though, we didn't have a lot of game time with our first choice and after two matches they were off again for 4 weeks. As far as Fiji is concerned the important thing there was to remain within their structures and fine tune the tight phase exchanges which they did well, what the fiji and namibia game did bring as well was opportunities for some players to play themselves into form and show some good understanding and combinations.

Danie Rossouw, Frans Steyn, Francois Hougaard, JP Pietersen, Jaque Fourie, Brussow and Burger specifically were impressive individually and some good combinations came out of it.

Gurthro Steenkamp, John smit and Jannie du Plessis had some good game time and all three are looking decent.

Fourie du Preez and Morne steyn lloked solid and did more or less what you expected from them.

My only real concern is Habana, although on defence he wasn't bad.

As far as samoa is concerned, I am sure we won't underestimate them, but then in all honesty it should not be too hard to beat them.

Yeah samoa should be ok. Talk here is theyre going to try to keep the match as 'unstructured' as possible. Something that might be their own undoing in itself.
One thing they will do is hit hard. They had similar scoreline as your match with wales so by that alone theyre certainly up to it.

It now looks like an Argentina vs NZ and Australia vs SA side of the draw.

NZ play Canada and Kieran Read comes back into the side. I suspect he will play 40 mins or so and will get a chance to see how his ankle is. Then against Argentina he will get about 60 mins or so to get him back into match fitness.

Then the quarter final with SA and Australia should be a huge battle, especially if SA can get on top of the Aussie forwards and kick some points. Whoever comes out of this match will be drained physically. You might argue NZ will be underdone but Canada and Argentina will at least provide a big enough physical test and they should have more left in the tank.

I have no idea who will win but I have a feeling deep down that an Aussie win would pose more of a threat to NZ simply because they believe they can win. That said, there is nothing really between the sides. They each offer something that can beat the ABs. But if we turn up with the same attitude as we did against France and our home 3N tests, I fear no one. That said it´s only fair I feel so nervous as the other side of the draw presents equally difficult matches to predict. What a great thing for rugby. Let´s hope the rugby is deserving of the expectations.

Good on you Kia. Yes we are all posting while walking around on eggshells at the moment. There will be some (as Henry calls it) 'defining moments' over the next two weekends where getting to the final almost makes the final itself an anticlimax where by then so many unknowns will be resolved.

I agree re AB's. With them its all about execution. Always has been. We had it against France and have it in 'most' of our games. After Canada we'll need to have it 3 times in a row.

This weekend has some great matchups purely because for some the result decides whether they'll play on or not. SA Samoa, Ireland Italy and Scotland England are all effectively knockouts for someone, wether they are playing or watching so I expect the fire to be burning in all 3 matches this weekend- can't wait!

The Eden Park factor is worth mentioning as well. We haven´t lost against Australia there since the 90s and against SA since the 30s. That´s like an extra man on the pitch for us along with the home crowd support.

SA and Australia always approach a match with NZ thinking they can win but Australia just pip the Boks for self belief with their wins in Brisbane and Hong Kong. SA also have a win away this year but offer a narrower means of winning in my view, which isn´t necessarily less effective but, rather, more predictable to fight against.

The one good thing about our draw is that it´s more like two matches we need to really focus on and perform in rather than three tough matches. No disrespect to Argentina but they don´t offer the same strengths as the Boks and are easier to beat in the backs.

86 last for Oz and French 94 is the only loss since the 86 one. Thats a massive record- unbeated 35/36 now since 86.

We also still have a lowest 20 point win record at home- now both against France (last week and 87 final)

Re Argie I agree, despite what France did in 07. Argie have never beaten us and this one wont be the time they do. In watching the Arg/ Scot match couldnt see them losing to either.

If we get past Oz/ SA whoevers in the final will need to be pretty sharp...

86! I wonder how many losses for how many games overall. I can only think of Ellis Park where a stadium holds so much fear for the opposition.

58 wins out of 70 with 2 draws.

Just checked its actually 1 loss in 37 (1 draw) since 86.

The loss in 94 was when Ntimack scored that unbelievable length of field try at the end to win 23-20 so a pretty formidable record...

Of the 10 losses 9 were 86 and before. I was at the 78 Oz and French 79 matches as a kid- two of the best tests I've ever seen (and we lost both!). Cornelsons 4 tries in 78 and Arguires brilliant team in 79- Cordonious, Averous, Rives, Blanco, Joinel and many more...

Good work Taylorman. We need Biltong now for an Ellis Park comparison.

Do you happen to know the House of Pain record as well mate?

The Aussies belief is unquestionable but is their scrum ?? They caught a klap from the Irish forwards and theres no amount of talking that can be done to hide that . The Wobblie;s are also lacking a kicker unless Dingo does the right thing and finds a place for Berrick Barnes in that XV .

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Do you happen to know the House of Pain record as well mate?

It's 'Jump Around' isn't it?

The Bok record at Ellis Park (as far as I can tell) is 30 wins, 12 losses and 2 draws (going right back to the opening match in 1928). That's only a 68% win rate!

The Bok Record at Loftus is 21 wins and 7 losses: a 75% win rate.

Anyway, I digress. Back to the original topic...

STADIUM CITY TOTAL WINS LOSSES DRAWS PERCENTAGE
EASTERN PROVINCE STADIUM PORT ELIZABETH 16 14 1 1 91%
WESTPAC STADIUM WELLINGTON 15 13 2 0 87%
CARISBROOK DUNEDEN 38 32 5 1 86%
EDEN PARK AUCKLAND 68 56 10 2 84%
DOCKLANDS STADIUM MELBOURNE 11 9 2 0 82%
LANCASTER PARK CHRISTCHURCH 48 39 9 0 81%
LANG PARK BRISBANE 19 15 4 0 79%
SYDNEY FOOTBALL STADIUM SYDNEY 22 17 5 0 77%
FREESTATE STADIUM BLOEMFONTEIN 18 13 4 1 75%
BALLYMORE STADIUM BRISBANE 40 29 9 2 75%
RAEBURN PLACE EDINBURGH 23 15 4 4 74%
LOFTUS VERSFELD PRETORIA 30 22 8 0 73%
STADIUM AUSTRALIA SYDNEY 30 22 8 0 73%
ATHLETIC PARK AND WESTPACK WELLINGTON 42 29 10 3 73%
ELLISPARK JOHANNESBURG 43 30 11 2 72%
NEWLANDS CAPETOWN 48 32 14 2 69%
SUBIACO OVAL PERTH 11 7 3 1 68%
TWICKENHAM LONDON 265 169 73 23 68%
CROKE PARK DUBLIN 14 9 4 1 68%
STADE DE FRANCE PARIS 51 34 16 1 68%
ST HELEN'S SWANSEA 51 33 17 1 66%
RAVENHILL BELFAST 16 10 5 1 66%
KINGSPARK DURBAN 27 16 8 3 65%
PARC DES PRINCES PARIS 85 54 30 1 64%
NATIONAL STADIUM CARDIFF 174 105 62 7 62%
RECTORY FIELD BLACKHEATH 14 8 6 0 57%
INVERLEITH 39 21 16 2 56%
STADE OLYMPIQUE PARIS 99 53 41 5 56%
MURRAYFIELD EDINBURGH 243 124 109 10 53%
MILLENIUM STADIUM CARDIFF 82 42 37 3 53%
LANSDOWNE ROAD DUBLIN 252 121 114 17 51%
SYDNEY CRICKET GROUND SYDNEY 70 31 35 4 47%
ROYAL AGRICULTURAL SHOWGROUND SYDNEY 20 8 12 0 40%
BALMORAL SHOWGROUNDS BELFAST 11 4 7 0 36%
EXHIBITION GROUND BRISBANE 15 4 10 1 30%
ATHLETIC GROUND RICHMOND 10 3 7 0 30%

Sorry for the capital letters but I did it on excel in capitals and it is far too much work to retype the whole lot, but those are all the stadiums where more than ten tests have been played from the top 8 countries.

Hi,Biltong nice stats as usual,but only significant ones 37 losses out of 480
games at home for the All Blacks,only Boks [2008,2009]and France 2009 since 2003.All 3 wins were against injury weakened All Black sides.

Good on you mate. Few surprises there. Ellis Park is a graveyard for the ABs. Who´s been winning there? Much more tests at Eden Park than anywhere else in NZ so a very handy record there.

Springbok losses at ellispark.

NZ- 1928
LIONS- 1955
FRA- 1958
OZ- 1963
FRA- 1967
ENG- 1972
NZ- 1992
FRA- 1993
NZ- 1997
FRA- 2001
LIONS- 2009

France the most successful! I thought they were our bogey team mate.

Good work.