RWC2011 quater final: Wales v Ireland

First topic message reminder :

let the speculation begin.

and a poll. feel free to change your mind as the week goes on.

this is going to be wales' biggest game for a long time, well since the samoa game. it is too close for comfort. either team can win.

my welsh xxii
geth, bennett, adam
awj,chartris
lydiate (fingers crossed he's fit if not ryan) warbs,faletau
phillips,jones
shane, roberts,williams,north
byrne
burnes, james, brad, ryan (but if he starts instead of lyds powell on bench), williams, hook (if fit, if not priestland), 1/2p

Fair enough knowsit but my head says ireland should win it. They as in the team and players have had the upper hand over welsh teams recently be it hc,league or intl . I just believe the team is better overall. Time for them to pay back all their talk especially over the last five years.

Do i think Wales can win...of course. I just believe its time this team delivered and recent results are a good indication..

Re o'garas defence he is fine only others find it an issue. In fact wales probably lost the gs game because they targeted him all day with no return.

The Welsh defence aint too shabby.Ask England or SA or Fiji.We have Lions in key positions and we are just better all around.Keep an eye on our back row,you may learn something.

"Conor Murray has never lost to a Welsh team yet!"

Good for him, how many seasons has he been playing them?

Keep an eye on Priestland, He may learn something about a Tullow sidestep.























It's called getting trampled by Sean O'Brien

wales have to be favourites after there scintilating win against ireland in the 6 nations and the crushing of world powers figi and samoa. Ireland are just glad to get to the quarterfinals after the last world cup

I get the feeling we'll have to agree to disagree DOD but in 2009 we targetted him mainly 1st half, knocked him over a few times and were ahead at HT. Likewise we targetted him this year much more successfully. The 2009 Slam wasn't won by ROG's defence but by his kicking and Bowe and BOD's razor-edged runs.

The regions are less than ten years old and regularly fall short against the provinces who still seem to be experiencing a golden era. Nevertheless we're talking int'l and on that front Wales are more decorated than Ireland in recent years despite regional failings.

Knowsit17 wrote:"Conor Murray has never lost to a Welsh team yet!"

Good for him, how many seasons has he been playing them?

First season - his starts at the end of last season:
v Dragons: Munster 38-17 (Munster win)
v Cardiff: 15-16 (Munster win)
v Ospreys: 20-22 (Munster win)
v Ospreys: 18-11 (Munster win - Magners semi).

Only other teams he has started against in the Magners are Leinster x 2 times. Munster won both.

A bit like Earls and Australia. Never lost to them yet and he has played them 3 times.

Wasnt suggesting we won because of his defence..anyhow he was there in the 2nd half (nice dg at the end i recall). Sure wales have two gs but on head to head , win ratio etc we have been more consistent . The last time Ireland feared wales was in the 70s the results since then show that.

Head to head Wales lead 54.31% winning margin

Re this year. Whether you ignore it or not is your problem but a certain illegaltry had something to do with it. Anotherthing to put right next weekend

Indeed cymro..in total wales are ahead. Do you know what the stats are in the last 20 years...have a look

DOD wrote:Wasnt suggesting we won because of his defence..anyhow he was there in the 2nd half (nice dg at the end i recall). Sure wales have two gs but on head to head , win ratio etc we have been more consistent . The last time Ireland feared wales was in the 70s the results since then show that.

Perhaps you should start again.

Interestingly, in the October edition of Rugby World they have predicted Wales as losing quarter finalists, and Ireland as losing semi finalists.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/welsh/15145079.stm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Wales at full strength. Lydiate back is a brilliant thing. Hook onto the bench for me and I'm not even sure Williams would get in my 22 at the moment...shame but the truth

These stats mean nothing even the game played last March should not be used as a yardstick to the current form of both sides.

Cymro.. In the last 30 games its Ireland 19 Wales 10 and 1 draw. Just thought you would like to know

the last 30 games are not being played on Saturday.

Gatland has a selection headache due to so many players showing excellent form.
For the first time in a long time we will have a strong bench whoever is selected.

This is a really tight test to call. I do think Irelands experience of cup rugby is somthing that will be an advantage for them but Wales can counter that with the fearlessness of youth. Wales also have recent experience of beating Ireland and know from 08 and 05 how to win important contests. The Ospreys winning the grand final in dublin 18 months ago should give a lot of our boys confidence they can beat the Irish.

It should be parity in the scrum although Best is a big loss for the Irish. They managed to munch the oz scrum but wales with Adam jones are more than capable of holding their own.

The lineout is an advantage to Ireland, who can win good quick ball off the top and back whilst Wales will have to rely upon safer but slower front line ball if they want to be certain of securing it it.

The breakdown is crucial, Lydiates return would be very welcome for Wales as the Irish backrow has a mean edge. Warburton espescially is key as he will win turnovers if wales can capitalise on that they can set their young backs free.

Offensively, Wales with North, Roberts and Priestland are in very good form, They also have a wealth of talent and experience on the bench. With people like halfpenny, Wellies, Ryan, Powell, even Shane who could all make an impact off the bench. Wales have scored 24 tries so far this tournament in the so called pool of death( only australia and nz have scored more) Irelands backs have managed only 15 and look less fluent.

Defensively both teams are very very tight, Wales only leaked 4 tries in the group Ireland ever with Oz in the group went one better. The shut out today against fiji will have given the boys confidence but I would say the Irish defence is meaner, and it was Fiji 2nd team.

I think Wales will edge a thriller, our backs will break the Irish defence down Roberts running full tilt at ROG is going to be an awesome sight. However never discount O driscoll or Bowe springing somthing special to get teh irish through.

DOD wrote:Cymro.. In the last 30 games its Ireland 19 Wales 10 and 1 draw. Just thought you would like to know

What has that got to do with anything ? majority of the Welsh team were not even born when some of them games were played.

DOD,keep looking at the past.We used to do that.Now we are looking at the now and the future.

Pffft. Anyone from Ireland who says Wales will be an easy match are stupid. Anyone from Wales who expects to walk it, or the game is as good as won, needs their head seeing to!

It won't be an easy match for either side, and it will be a tight game to call. This Ireland team is very, very good, and very fit. We won't be able to run them off the pitch like some other teams. Further, they seem to have gelled at just the right time.

Wales are looking good, and have a decent killer instinct, the first time I've seen it in a Welsh team for a while.

Whoever wins, I'll support them all the way, but I will be wearing red next weekend!

Lets face it George North will score one and set at least one more up. Great to see Roberts linking up with the Scarlets boys. Scarlets are gonna have some backline when these lads come back...

whats good guys is that whoever wins will play either a misfiring french side or england. Id think that both teams would fancy that.

Murray and the three backrowers of the Apocalypse will be protecting ROG all day,at best he will act as a speed bump. He cant tackle but is effective at getting guys to slow down until the reinforcements arrive.


One thing I will say for the Welsh fans is that you finally seem to be moving on from the days where everyone was compared to the greats of the 70s. I think a lot of young Welsh guys failed because of that. They are under less pressure when they're not measured up to the likes of Bennett,John,Edwards,Gravell et al.




It will be close no denying that.

I have been impressed with Priestlands tackling I was one of those people who did not give him enough credit,

The use of stats was just to show that as with Italy today more often than not we beat Wales . So far the within the wc I see no reason to change that view.

There you have it though DOD, all stats change eventually and all change has a starting point.

Besides, since Gatland came in the record is Ireland 2-2 Wales. And much of the current Wales side have little to no experience playing Ireland, therefore arguably won't feel under so much pressure from the negative record their predecessors have compiled against the Irish.

All this is ultimately irrelevant anyway, the better team on the day will win, simple as.

DOD wrote:The use of stats was just to show that as with Italy today more often than not we beat Wales . So far the within the wc I see no reason to change that view.

Head to head Wales lead 54.31% winning margin, If you are going to use stats then you cant be selective.

wales606 wrote:But that was more to do with stopping the Aus forwards, not their backs. Ireland will have a harder task vs Warburton et al.

mckay1402 wrote:Wales are a lot stronger all over the paddock than australia.

Some of the comments on here are hilarious.

I certainly do hope the better team win on the day

Now to see what kind of brain f.rt warren will come out with during the week. Although given he is using this to try out for the ab job he might behave himself

Im irish live in cardiff gatland makes it very hard to support wales

radelven wrote:

wales606 wrote:But that was more to do with stopping the Aus forwards, not their backs. Ireland will have a harder task vs Warburton et al.

mckay1402 wrote:Wales are a lot stronger all over the paddock than australia.

Some of the comments on here are hilarious.

No Irish posters tickle your funny bone?

Taffineastbourne wrote:No Irish posters tickle your funny bone?

There weren't any Irish saying they were a more difficult prospect than the Boks or ABs. If they had I would have quoted them as well.

radelven wrote:

Taffineastbourne wrote:No Irish posters tickle your funny bone?

There weren't any Irish saying they were a more difficult prospect than the Boks or ABs. If they had I would have quoted them as well.

You appear to have a very narrowly focussed sense of humour.Bit of a shame that.Never mind.Keep your spirits up.

I dont know Taff...seems he has a very balanced and keen sense of hunour and certainly recognises some comments for what they were...

Shane Williams, James Hook and Dan Lydiate are all declared fit against Ireland,

let the selection headaches begin.

The only stat that matters is that Ireland beat the 3N champions in a game that mattered, whereas Wales lost to the team that finished last in the 3N when it mattered.
Ireland are unbeaten in this current tournament, Wales aren't. Ireland will be the bookies favourites which is something they have never liked in the past, but I suspect Kidney is encouraging them all to put a bet on this time.

tecphobe wrote:Im irish live in cardiff gatland makes it very hard to support wales

You're Irish, so why would you want to support Wales anyway?

"We feel good. We've done our job and topped the pool, but this squad of players isn't happy with that. We want to do bigger and better things than this. There's way more to come from this team. We said after the second pool game we're halfway there and now we'll say again, we're only halfway there. There's no point thinking we've achieved something now because we have done what we've done. We want more and Wales is next on the list." - Sean O'Brien.

Watch out Welshies, watch the fook out

Risca Rev wrote:

tecphobe wrote:Im irish live in cardiff gatland makes it very hard to support wales

You're Irish, so why would you want to support Wales anyway?

" When there not playing ireland obviously, say playing france for example

Joubert as ef is a good appointment. He is usually decent in the big games. Against the minnows he made some 'game' decisions by his own admission but he is usually pretty consistent.

Joubert is the best referee if you want a flowing game, in my opinion wales like to play with rythm and in this case they couldn't have gotten a better referee for the occasion.

Whether that will be enough though, is another question. In my humble opinion Ireland tick more boxes than Wales.

So many straws being clutched at in this thread,

Wales to win by more than 15 points.

viewtothegym wrote:So many straws being clutched at in this thread,

Wales to win by more than 15 points.

Marked

The only stats that atually matter are the ones that arise out of the game next weekend. This remains a 50/50 IMO with Irish experience pitched against what looks like the beginning of a welsh golden era similar to what Ireland have experienced the last 10 years : A rubbish Wales beating a poor Ireland in Cardiff in the 6 Nations has no bearing whatsoever. May the best team on the day win and lets hope the ref has a good game. Bowe scored a clear try yesterday and it should have gone to the TMO at least instead of just being ruled out.

For me, Ireland are favourites here - this is a team that beat Aus and walloped Italy. To have a decent chance of turning them over, Wales' lineout and kick-off return need to improve by a long way from the Fiji game, and we absolutely cannot play Hook at FB - we have to have someone with good FB positioning and good in the air.

Not sure I agree with the Heineken Cup/Pro 12 results and how this translates to the international stage. Clearly Ireland are streets ahead in the HC. The Ospreys are pretty successful in the ML, but generally the Irish teams have done better here too.

However, if you look at Super 15 rugby the last three winners have been Australian (2011), South Afrtican (2010) and South African (2009). However, most would still have called New Zealand the best international team over the past 3 years, wouldn't they? That's certainly what posters on here have been suggesting. Therefore, for me the club league results are not the be all and end all of predicting an international result.

One of the 4 remaining NH teams is going to the final.

You can make a credible case for or against any of them.

France have tremendous quality, held back by poor selection and coaching.

England are 6 nations champs, have the World cup pedigree and know how to win ugly.

Ireland have got the best record of the NH teams so far in this competition, with a great win over Oz and demolition of Italy. Their big players are hitting form.

Wales are showing the sharpest improvement.

Impossible to call.

But one of these 4 will be in the final.

Impossible to call.

Griff wrote:Not sure I agree with the Heineken Cup/Pro 12 results and how this translates to the international stage. Clearly Ireland are streets ahead in the HC. The Ospreys are pretty successful in the ML, but generally the Irish teams have done better here too.

However, if you look at Super 15 rugby the last three winners have been Australian (2011), South Afrtican (2010) and South African (2009). However, most would still have called New Zealand the best international team over the past 3 years, wouldn't they? That's certainly what posters on here have been suggesting. Therefore, for me the club league results are not the be all and end all of predicting an international result.

Obviously it's not the be all and end all. I can't remember about 2010, but in 2009 SA won the Lions and 3N and in 2011 Australia won the 3N so perhaps super 15 does actually transform to international results? Added to that, since the last world cup our provinces have won 3 out of 4 Heineken cups, and in the year we didn't win one (2010), we had two provinces in the semi finals. That is four years of consistent and pretty successful knock out rugby that these players have in their system. It's not the be all and end all in deciding who's going to win next weekend, but it's a serious advantage that these players have experience of going into high intensity knock out rugby matches and coming out on top more than not.

mrsuperclear wrote:

Griff wrote:Not sure I agree with the Heineken Cup/Pro 12 results and how this translates to the international stage. Clearly Ireland are streets ahead in the HC. The Ospreys are pretty successful in the ML, but generally the Irish teams have done better here too.

However, if you look at Super 15 rugby the last three winners have been Australian (2011), South Afrtican (2010) and South African (2009). However, most would still have called New Zealand the best international team over the past 3 years, wouldn't they? That's certainly what posters on here have been suggesting. Therefore, for me the club league results are not the be all and end all of predicting an international result.

Obviously it's not the be all and end all. I can't remember about 2010, but in 2009 SA won the Lions and 3N and in 2011 Australia won the 3N so perhaps super 15 does actually transform to international results? Added to that, since the last world cup our provinces have won 3 out of 4 Heineken cups, and in the year we didn't win one (2010), we had two provinces in the semi finals. That is four years of consistent and pretty successful knock out rugby that these players have in their system. It's not the be all and end all in deciding who's going to win next weekend, but it's a serious advantage that these players have experience of going into high intensity knock out rugby matches and coming out on top more than not.

Let's look it it another way. Ireland won the 6N in 2009 which was a year that one of your teams didn't win the HC. In none of the HC wining years did Ireland win the 6N. Wales won the 2005 and 2008 6N with Grand Slams, but our clubs/regions were nowhere near winning the HC, and haven't been since. There is no pattern here. You could almost argue that maybe the exertion and effort required to win the HC negatively affects international performance in Ireland, as the stats suggest?

I'm not discrediting Ireland as I think they're a great team, they're favourites for this game with Wales, I'm half Irish so they're my second team, etc. I just don't think that club success and international success are correlated as some of the Ireland stats shows.