Do you believe?

This week is the build up to not only the World Cup quarter finals but also the Kona World Championship Ironman race. After busting up both my knees in rugby and skiing, I found a new way to beat up my body in the world of triathlon. I always like to see how different elite athletes cope with the mental aspect of their particular sports and how important it is to their performance.

Look at tennis. Djokovic has been in the past flakey mentally to say the least. When he looked like losing, suddenly he´d go down injured and pull out of the match. Now he has suddenly found somehow new mental strength and what a difference we have in him in terms of his performance. From the other extreme Tiger Woody (Steve Williams was not the only one handling his wood collection) has a sex scandal and the revelation of more than just few holes in one (more like 12, 13, 14) and suddenly he plummets down the world rankings. This week in Kona sees Chrissie Ellington coming back from her DNS last year and suddenly the girls seem to be saying who is going to come second now. Chris McDonald showed he still had belief beating race favourite Craig Alexander but this year Macca´s not racing and suddenly there are a few contenders in the mix.

Don´t worry, there´s a point to this ironman analogy. What a fantastic set of quarter finals we have for this rugby world tournament. I´ve never seen such an even set of match ups before. Each team (with the exception of Argentina in all honesty) goes into their respective games knowing they can beat the other. Even Argentina will approach this match thinking they can win. Some teams might have had more recent success against one another in the Six or Tri Nations but really deep down each team knows they have a great chance of winning.

So physical preparation and performance on the day (like in all sports knowing how to adapt to conditions, knowing when to strike and when to recover, using your strengths to pull you out of difficult situations etc) are important. But for my money, the biggest service an athlete can do approaching an important match or event is to be prepared mentally. The teams that go out there on the weekend to do battle have to believe they can win. Rugby is a team game so there are team expectations wrapped up together with individual expectations and pressures. But the team who hits that first tackle, ruck or maul with controlled fury and sustains that for as long as possible (i.e. not like how France did against the ABs buckling mentally when points came against them), having complete faith in the systems on attack and defence and having the mental fortitude to know when to adapt or change those tactcis will succeed.

So looking at the teams who do you think is mentally strong out there. Wales will have been gutted with their loss against SA. But as the draw turns out it was in fact a defeat that actually helped their interests out. They have certainly grown in belief with a hard fought win against Samoa (who made SA work hard for their victory as well) and they avenged the demons of 2007 with a compelling win over Fiji. Mentally, they seem strong to me but how will they react if Ireland come out the way they did against Australia and they get behind on the scoreboard. Or will they come out the stronger and put the pressure on Ireland?

Ireland have had a big win against Australia but haven´t reached those heights of performance against the other sides they played. They didn´t have to. Are they capable now of lifting themselves up for the big match and bring their A game. Let´s not underestimate the importance of that win against Australia. I think such a win gives them huge confidence and belief. Ireland have always seemed to embrace their underdog status but for my money they are slight favourites for this match based on their win against Australia. How will they handle that mental pressure of being expected to win where so many supporters were nervous about their chances against Australia? I know they have the players with big match knockout experience so this match seems to be fairly even on the mental front.

Next England and France. England can be accused of many things but mental fortitude is a strength of theirs. They were written off after their woeful display against SA in the 2007 pool game. Look at where they ended up? You can put that down to mental fortitude as no way were many of those players as talented as 2003. They have failed to impress in the pool games but they have found a way to win games when it mattered. That´s mental strength so for me they go into this match mentally strong. France on the other hand seem the antithesis of England. They are as fragile mentally as Keith Richards after a heavy session. But of all the teams who are somehow able to conjure up a miracle performance based on no previous form, France is the one team capable of rewriting the form book but also reversing their mental frailness. I´m as intrigued about the result of this match as which France will turn up. I know which England will turn up but which France turns mentally up will dictate the result of this match. It´s that important.

South Africa have had a few losses to the Aussies in recent times. Australia are the 3N champions and you could sense that victory for them in Brisbane really gave them sky high confidence. You could argue it gave them overconfidence. This week´s comments from the Aussie camp are in stark contrast to the build-up to the Ireland game. Before there was empty rhetoric of how good BOD was but you got the feeling they didn´t think much of Ireland as a team. 4 losses before the tournament and that makes sense. Now you get the feeling their heads are down and they´re focused. That spells trouble for SA I feel. But SA are looking composed. Each side has their injury worries but to me the SA side looks in better shape mentally with the games they´ve had. But Australia will have had their pride battered and they are a dangerous side when they´re focused. A fascinating match in store.

Lastly Argentina will be happy to get through to the quarters after some tough games. They could´ve qualified top of the group you could argue but they could´ve also not qualified at all. It was one of those groups. But seeing as they´re here, I´m sure they can believe they can go further. They´ve got a proud World Cup record and they want to make a big statement on the eve of entering the 4N next year. So what better way to announce your arrival by beating the number one ranked team at home? A huge ask, but they have to approach this match truly believing they can do it. Meanwhile, the ABs have suffered the loss of their talisman player. So they have to wipe that from their minds and focus on providing the best platform for Slade. They need to focus even more on the team aspect and have that do or die attitude for one another. They also have to belief in their own game and not get drawn into scrapping out a game the way the Argentinians want to play. In short they have to go out mentally strong and look to dominate this side across the park and break them mentally.

So what cracker games we have in store. I can tell you one thing. The winners from this weekend will have played some physically bruising rugby but the ones who are able mentally to get on top of their opposition will come out of the game as victors. kia kaha

Good post Kia.

Two points though.

I thought Irelands performance against Italy was as good as, if not better than the one against Australia so I don't think the favourites tag, if indeed we have that, will be a problem. I think most pundits see that one as 50:50 with many tipping Wales which is fair enough.

Secondly how the flip do you compete in Triathalons with busted knees ? Bonne effort!

It was only exterior ligament damage. They´ll never heal properly but they can be managed easily enough. But I think if I´d kept on playing rugby it would´ve been a ticking time bomb and I chose to break away into something with less impact at least directly. Had nowhere near enough pace for the Olympic races so went into the slow and steady, mentally strong world of Ironman.

Ireland never allowed Italy a sniff so it was a good performance from them no doubt rodders. But they never needed to raise their game so high like they did against Australia. Now with the games ahead of them they will have to do that. I believe they can make the final but I can say the same about any team that side of the draw (maybe not France!) so who will have the mental application for me will be the crucial factor.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Had nowhere near enough pace for the Olympic races so went into the slow and steady, mentally strong world of Ironman.

I bet it's not that slow and steady ....respect

Kia - A really good balanced assessment of the competition.

Three of the games are in the lap of the gods - perhaps the NZ/Arg game is more predicable. Personally I expect NZ, Ireland, England and SA to triumph. For me Ireland have more of the tried-and-tested star quality which will outweigh the promising Welsh. I take SA experience over Aus flare (several teams have shown how the Aussies can be nullified) and I'd be surprised if SA don't do the same. France look poor, and unless they can turn the mental side around (not a noted gallic trait) then I don't see them beating England.

Should be a great weekend.

Good luck with the triathlon!

I think everyone bar Argentina will have strong belief they can win. The Pumas will be pumped up to give a good account of themselves though. It's not often they've gotten to play the All Blacks.

Basing it on pool play alone I'll be disappointed if the winner of the ire wales match doesnt beat the eng fra winner to give us a brand new finalist.
The type of rugby played by the former two has showed more guts and spirit than the other two.
Gut feel is england will again fumble their way through its just not pretty stuff.
Admitedly we're not here to entertain but from an outsider on the four Wales and ireland for me in the final.
Argie simply wont cope with the ab efficiency. Too many guns across the paddock and the abs will want to use the match to mark the territory of eden park so to speak.
SA should be too strong for oz and id rather meet SA semis as we know whats in front of us.
With oz you never do.
They could blitz SA if they click but the weather isnt looking good for their type of game.
Im picking a nz england final. I can just see both teams doing just enough to get there.

"From the other extreme Tiger Woody (Steve Williams was not the only one handling his wood collection) has a sex scandal and the revelation of more than just few holes in one (more like 12, 13, 14) and suddenly he plummets down the world rankings."

maybe i shouldnt go there as its a rugby thread- but tigers slump happened before the scandal- it was all down to a knee injury which meant he had to change his golf swing- funnily enough it wasnt his long game that really was the difference- it was his putting, he used to hole everything- esp the par saves after a couple of bad shots- but when a player gets the fear on them greens things go abit(he felt venerable and his game was gone abit)- tiger could well be back- but never to the extent that he was before(he was so dominant)- but he still has majors in him.

All the same it validtaes your point- something happened to him and his mental strength was knocked

The QF is at home though. Shouldn't be a problem for NZ. They need to look out for injuries though.

I remember being at Athletic Park and watching NZ beat them 93-8. You could see tries coming 10 seconds before they did from the top of the Millard. Though it hurt your neck craning it to see whilst you were clinging onto a railing for dear life.

I agree about the injuries Disney, it would be awful if we lost a key player now. Imagine if DC went out crocked.

There's no way McCaw will make it through the tournament in my view. The media releases are all priming the nation gently for his loss.

I think if it weren't for the 2007 experience, he'd be rested again for this game with sights on the semi.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/golf/tigerwoods/6758298/Barack-Obama-takes-tips-from-Tiger-Woods.html

One of my favourite links above in regards to Tiger woods.

Agree that mental strength is so important in sport. It can actually outweigh talent in some cases.

Bless that ground and yet thank goodness it´s not still around. I remember seeing a 43-6 hammering of Australia showing a perfect example of wet weather rugby. In between the entertainment on the field, I did recall being quite nervous that the stand was going to collapse. It really did shake about a lot in the wind.

Home advantage or not chilly, if we turn up with our minds on the semi final opponent (which we´ll know about when they´re doing the haka more or less), then we might get embarrassed early on. I agree though we have too much firepower particularly in the backs and the holes will appear sooner or later. But I still expect a much better performance than Argentina have ever given in NZ to date.

Haha GG. I kind of agree with you about McCaw. Expect him to be pulled early this weekend if we're on top. If ht aggravates it, get Todd in there ASAP. Best fetcher in NZ at the moment and we need that for Brüssow or Pocock.