Very Early Week 6 lines

Prices pretty much go up as soon as games finish and I think there's some early value around.

Redskins +1.5 v Eagles

I can't for the life of me work out how the Eagles are favs for this. Not only do they continue to disappoint hugely they also face a resurgent Redskins outfit who are coming off the back of a bye and who sit top of the East at 3-1.
You could argue that their strength of schedule hasn'het been great so far but Grossman has so far vindicated Shanahans decision to make Sexy the starter, Hightower and Torain are running the ball well, the pass rush rush has inflicted 15 sacks already (4 games), the secondary is strong and the line has allowed just 14 rushing first downs this season and just 3 rushing TDs.
I'm no Redskins fan but occasionally the prices appear wrong and when you look into them you find the reason, I can't find a solid reason why this Eagles team should be favs to win this.
Ignore the 59 points Eagles put on the Redskins in this fixture last year, both teams are heading in very different directions this year.

Panthers +6 @ Falcons

Another divison rivalry that a few weeks ago would have been an automatic home win, but this is week 6 and not pre-season hype.
Falcons have gone backwards after last years divison title, they made sacrifices to get rookie WR Julio Jones in Radio City and the 'spine' of Ryan, Turner, White and Jones is one of the scariest in the league but the defence is allowing almost 300 passing yards a game and in Cam Newton the Panthers have a (rough) diamond who will only imrpove.
Steve Smith has found a new lease of life and the rushing duo of DAW and Stewart are averaging over 5 yards a carry between them, in short the Panthers have been able to move the ball downfield both ways and against this porous Falcons defence I don't see them having much trouble repeating this next Sunday.
I think there'll be points in the game but Newton and co getting a 6 point start is too big to pass on.
I may also back the Panthers outright at fancy prices.

Bills +4 @ Giants

Bills continue to surprise for the right reasons and Giants continue to flatter to deceive.
Eli managed over 400 yards last week yet the Giants found a way of losing to a poor Seahawks team in a 1pm ET kick off.
Big Blue are struggling to get anything done on the ground and despite some surprisingly big numbers from Eli and a memorable start to NFL life by Victor Cruz who has close on 400 yards and 3 TDs, the problems on defence who continue to give up too many points, yards and big plays.
Buffalo have done very little wrong this year and have already claimed the scalps of the Raiders, Pats and Eagles to their name - the defence isn't great but Fitzpatrick and co seem to adopt the 'if we score more points than our oppo it doesn't matter how many we concede' policy averaging 33 points a game.
This line would have been value even if the Giants were somewhere near the team we know they can be, but they have injury issues and welcome a Bills team who are as hot as they have been for a generation.
Bills with a 4 point start looks massive to me

dreading to see the bucs/saints line...

You'll be surprised I think GurTPL, yesterday it was Saints -5.
On the strength of the Buccs performance in SF you can only back the Saints but that wasn't the real Buccs and I'm sure they'll bounce back even if not enough to pick up a win here.
Just out of interest, didn't the Buccs go out to California (may be Raiders)and get beat 48-0 or something in their superbowl season ?
Omens and all that....

Don t think i could ever bring myself to backing rexy i actually liked the eagles price based on the fact that they cant be that terrible 3 weeks in a row.
Got to agree with you on the panthers plus 6 though wouldnt be suprised if they won that game

I think the Skins look good based on two situations - 1) Vick, Jackson and Maclin are all a bit banged up this year. Only McCoy looks fully healthy. The Skins D will look to attack and contain Vick. 2) The Eagles cannot defend the run and the Skins have 2, if not 3 backs that can move the ball now. This one could all boil down to time of possession and if we get ahead and Vick starts chasing the game look for INT's and/or injury.

Philly O-line has been shocking this year, and the Redskins are bringing the pass rush hard so far. As long as Shanahan doesn't have to put the game on Rex's back, Washington should win this.

(On a side note, I think the Skins have their back for the future in Roy Helu)

Grizzly, that year was lost twice to the Saints, and to both Pennsylvania teams. We did play the Raiders in Cali that year, but that was the super bowl in san diego :P

seriously though, the line should favoour the Saints more IMO - Gerald McCoy's been the main reason why the Bucs D-line looked good in weeks 3 & 4, been occupying a lot of double teams, and he's been all but ruled out this week; and more worryingly, Blount could miss this week, which would remove pretty much any run game we have

OK cheers - I remember vividly (a bad bet !) the Buccs going out West and getting beat 40 something zip, may not have been the superbowl year, the memory plays tricks and all that....

The only bets I have on the american football are usually the first player to score a touchdown on the Sunday night live games.

Tanard Jackson going to play against the Saints so it seems. Great player I would have waited until the second Saints game. You gotta trust Raheem though. Jackson can definitely make game changing plays.

T-Jack is an absolute baller... but the fact that Rah is talking about him playing immediately, to me, speaks ill of Corey Lynch & Larry Asante. Maybe it's me, but personally I think that won't be great for those guys' confidence, and potentially may not make for the most harmonious of locker rooms. But, hey, if we get the W (big if I know), then it's all moot, nothing makes for a happy locker room like a win

Grizzly wrote:Panthers +6 @ Falcons

I may also back the Panthers outright at fancy prices.

Panthers currently look decent value on betfair Grizzly if you want straight Match Odds.
Panthers 2.8, Falcons 1.53
not an expert, but this seems high with the Panthers only +3.5 pts

anyway, not for me, i reckon the Falcons will bounce back from Sunday's loss to the Pack

Jones is out Moot and he's become their go to guy in recent weeks, means Panthers only have White and Gonzo - White seems destined to find himself double covered for much of the game.
+4 with Corals will be getting my hard earned today, and I'll double up with Bills +3 at odds against making a 3/1 double.
GL

i know the Falcons fell flat, but they were 14-0 up and looking good against GB, very impressed on the adjustments the Packers coachs made to turn that one around

i'm going for a falcon win and taking the Pack at -14.5....

after my 2 blow outs last week, you're monies probably safe!!