That happened, so will this happen?

Sometimes in this meaningless cosmos we try to find order among the chaos. Camus wrote in the Myth of Sisyphus (the guy who had to roll a boulder up a hill and then let it roll down again to the bottom and continue the process for eternity) that Sisyphus was defying the gods as he was reaching the top of the hill. His punishment was meaningless but his commitment to that very meaningless task made him beat the gods. To have given up would have meant accepting defeat.

So it is often the case in the media. People try to extract meaning from previous results. Greg Gowden in the SMH dismissed France´s chances saying they had no hope of winning. He was basing that information on France´s previous games. But whilst form and momentum are important for teams - and on that basis NZ go into the final as favourites - they are not the sole determinants of the outcome.

I was interested in reading how French players admitted that if Tonga hadn´t beaten France, they would´ve lost to England. That defeat was the necessary catalyst to that first half display where they put 16 points on England. If they hadn´t been beaten, they would´ve gone into the England match without that venom and hunger from having their pride hurt.

That all sounds typically French to me. But I wonder, are you able to draw similar conclusions. If Wales hadn´t lost so closely to SA, would they have found a way to lose against Manu Samoa if they had found a way to beat the Boks? If Ireland hadn´t beaten Australia, would they have gone into a match with South Africa with a do or die attitude and play with the intensity they did against Australia? If Australia hadn´t lost to Ireland, would they have not shown the tenacity and fortitude to find a way to beat SA with scraps?

How much do previous results have on teams? How linear is the line of performance? If a team is playing poorly does that mean it will play poorly in the next? Certainly England never seemed to get out of first gear against the good sides but France have been up and down like a rollercoaster. Is this a cultural thing or is it engrained in the rugby psyche of players?

I tend to think it´s very dangerous that NZ will crush France based on what has happened in the tournament so far. That does not mean that I don´think it can happen but I don´t think it necessarily will happen. It´s like the game many posters play saying well we beat A, who lost to B so we are stronger than B. To me this doesn´t reflect that some teams raise their game against other teams. Australia and France for example have a habit of raising their game against us and just because other teams may find them easier to beat does not mean that those other teams have a good chance of beating us as well.

We try to find order in what has been played out so far in this tournament. But the fact is two teams are in the final and the performance this Sunday on the field is what matters. Not what has gone before. So all you Kiwi posters, strap yourselves in to the unknown. This is sport. Anything can happen. We´re not there yet. I´m certainly confident but nothing is given until it is taken. kia kaha

Kia in all honesty I think this has more to do with ability.

and for me this French team although a better team than what they are given credit for, is not good enough when comparing them to the likes of Franks, Mealamu, Thorn, Read, Kaino, McCaw, Nonu, smith, Dagg.

Medard is as good as Dag, and the French back row is pretty damn good too, and the front row certainly the equal of NZ

The problem is you cannot do a double blind trial so you will never know. I think results affect some more than others. It can also be not just results but the feeling within the team regardless of results. I've played in teams where on the day you just KNOW you are going to win from the atmosphere in the changing room and other days you KNOW you are going to lose. At the top level of sport the match ups are so tight that it often boils down to psychology.

France fear the All Blacks more than any other team. They admitted it a while back. But that fear can sometimes inspire them to play like the team they imagine they're playing. They revere the All Blacks and put them on a pedestal, then proceed to lift their game to that pedestal whilst finding out that AB team they just played wasn't actually quite that high to begin with.

The set pieces will be very even, and the French will tackle their hearts out. Just hoping that the AB defence strangles them. NZ will score tries. If France don't score two it's game over. Expect Piri's kicking to be better from the tee this week as he's recovering from the flu. Had a yunder as soon as he came off the first time.

Beautifully written and well argued KK.

Imagine you're a player in this French side. You know you haven't played as well as you can. You're delighted to have made the final without having played as well as you can. You realise that you may never play in a World Cup final again, you appreciate what an opportunity you have. In that situation, you'd play out of your skin, wouldn't you?

I expect to see France play their best rugby of the tournament on Sunday. It may or may not be enough to beat the hosts.

The only purpose of this post is to create the illusion that this will be a meaningful contest so that nuetrals will watch it. You must work for a TV station.

Will NZ choke? Who knows but it is hard to see how they could get that bad. To lose to France they would have to stink the place out. They already know how to beat the French, more of the same will be plenty. IMO France despite reaching the final are actually playing worse than they were at the time of the pool game.

I think the story of Sisyphus fits nicely with Wales, always so close but the boulder always tumbles back down.

http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2008/01/funny-pictures-sisyphus-cat-watermelon-water.jpg

Nice one Ironmike. The thing that has impressed me with Wales this World Cup has been their ability to put in a complete performance and not just one of 60 minutes. That will stand them in good stead for the future.

Did by chance you think the same way the last World Cup final Just my view? SA had spanked England in the pool matches and they somehow dug deep and found their way to the final through sheer determination. Then they almost won the game. It didn´t matter what had happened to England in the pool match. They had a second bite at the cherry.

NZ has yet to be put under any real pressure this World Cup. Argentina got their nose in front but surrendered the lead soon after and never recovered. But if France can get some points on the board early and apply some pressure or if they come back with a purple patch in the middle of the game, it may force NZ into mistakes.

Of course NZ are favourites and should win. I certainly hope they do win and comfortably for the sake of my heart and the state of my underwear. But there are two teams in the final and both have good players that can do a job for their country.

Don´t get me wrong. I´m not artificially pumping up France´s chances. I just don´t buy into this talk of there being only one team to win and it will be a comfortable victory before the whistle has blown. Sport doesn´t work like that. We´ll only know on the day. I´m confident of victory but we´ll need a good performance to get that victory.

France pretty much thought that to win the World Cup they'd have to meet NZ twice, and that they conceded they weren't good enough to win both games. This is the one they want however. I can see the AB intensity rivalling the semi though so I'm hoping they can handle it and smash them back.

Someone said it was like they turned it on for the first 10 vs NZ in pool play and thought 'OK we can take them', then switched off. If they can repeat that for 80 then it'll be a hell of a game.

NZ should win and probably 95% of all scenarios... they will.

Yet there is one country who can tear up the form book in world rugby and pull out a performance from nothing .... and thats France.

Whenever anybody gives them a sniff, they disappoint. However the current indicators should worry Kiwi's.

France being totally written off by global press - check.
In-fighting in their camp - check.
Awful form and thus far they have dragged their way through the tournament - check.

The French always perform when least expected. They have only performed in bits thus far (the first 10 mins vs. NZ & the first 20 vs. ENG) but its enough to show they have what it takes to take on NZ, make a game of it and perhaps even, snatch a victory.

Whatever some blind fans may think, on paper they have the players to blow NZ away. Their pack on its day is awesome (and unlike many teams... every now and then they have their day). Their scrum will not fold to NZ, they have a decent lineout and their backrow is sublime.

I would still play Trinh-Duc to actually take the game to NZ but its very very unlikely they will tamper with their side at this moment.
Lievemont has won in NZ before (and did so with most of his top players too... all players in top 4 sides were barred from travelling in 08 due to the domestic championship not being over) so he knows what is need to beat NZ, in NZ.

When I watched the pool match I sort of felt something was up when they came out guns blazing in the first 10 mins and then completely dropped off for the rest of the match... it was almost like saying.... we have the tools to beat you, we're just not going to use them on you... yet.
I never thought FRA could beat NZ twice in this world cup... but always thought they could do it once. If they did it first time around NZ would learn from it and would almost certainly get revenge in the repeat match. This way around they still hold the cards of unpredictability which NZ may struggle to deal with.

Cruden & Weepu were dreadful with their place kicking on Sat. & kept AUS in the game for much of the match... add RWC final pressure and the huge expectation of victory and it won't get any easier.

One thing I didn't like was how all the pundits at the NZ vs. AUS SF were saying that 'this is the real RWC final, whoever wins this match will walk the final'... whenever I've heard those sayings... most of the time, those people have had to eat humble pie soon after.

Will they win... I can't see it... if they win however, I wouldn't be surprised.

Nice post Fa.

Hopefully Weepu´s poor kicking can be attributed to his bout of the flu. I think it´s a bit harsh on Cruden though to say his place kicking was awful. He´s no Carter but I thought he kept Australia down the right end of the field. What kept Australia in the match was our inability to kick goals and nail our half chances when we had the ball in their 22.

Certainly the players´comments have been pleasing to hear. No celebrations and the eyes are firmly on the prize. If we come out with the same commitment like we did against Australia, no team can live with us. But it was a big game that took a lot out of the players.

Attitude at the breakdown and aggression on attack preferably with ball in hand. This is what NZ will need against France. kia kaha

Hi kia
As you know Im certainly a student of the mental approach to the game.
From a physical, tactical, and oganisational consideration, the abs have it all over the french.

In terms of the media exercise, standard process is to play up the opposition as much as possible so as to not provide motivating factors for the opposition but also to curb complacency hence GHs "on their day france are best in the world etc."

I agree with you about the losses providing motivation and for us brisbane was our "tonga".

For this match i believe we have the biggest possible motivating factors from the french.

In 1999 they did what few had done before.
From 24-10 down they bit and snarled then scrambled their way back with a second half display of invincibility to steal a potential world cup from the abs.

In 2007 they did it again. Ripped a match despite incredible odds against them. The images of a desolate henry carter mccaw after the match. The hell they went through to get back to this very spot. We could well be playing for our 4th title from 7 if not for france.

Those two french teams are who we will be playing this sunday if henry is as smart as he seems to be. Theyll be playing for the lomus and cullens wilsons etc and themselves- sll who suffered the embarrassment at the hands of the french.

This team will be sone cold determined that there isnt a repeat and a france 3.

For that reason i believe they will leave no stone unturned and will carve this team up for dinner and keep carving until there is a less than zero chance of a comeback, and that could be at 25-30 points before they evem remotely consider relenting.

So i agree with your post and despite your very good examples of turning the result around, none comes anywhere near the motivational potential from 99 and 07.

Add in the earthquake, the Pike River mining disaster, the injuries to Carter and Mils, the Rena oil spill. There is no shortage of motivation for NZ mate, no doubt.

France celebrated their semi final win in 99. They then bombed out in the final having made too much of their semi final win. Lievremont was in that team. This time it´s the reverse. They seemingly scrape through but their motivation to do justice to a World Cup final appearance is not lacking either. We both have 3 final appearances and they haven´t touched the trophy yet.

I agree, the mental preparation is the key. Both sides have the players. It´s a matter of being able to impose the style of play you want and being accurate and effective in what you do.

That happened, so will this happen?

New Zealand and France were in the 1987 final and in the 20011 final.
Wales and Australia were in the 1987 3/4 play off and are in the 2011 one.

Wales had a player sent off in their 1987 and 2011 semi finals, Australia had a player sent off in the 1987 3/4 play off will it happen again?

Hopefully and then we win again on Sunday.

And wales will win by one though a sideline conversion again perhaps...

Taylorman wrote:And wales will win by one though a sideline conversion again perhaps...

Don't be silly our kickers are useless!
Unless we bring on Neil Jenkins in the 80th minute!

Just my view wrote:The only purpose of this post is to create the illusion that this will be a meaningful contest so that nuetrals will watch it. You must work for a TV station.

Will NZ choke? Who knows but it is hard to see how they could get that bad. To lose to France they would have to stink the place out. They already know how to beat the French, more of the same will be plenty. IMO France despite reaching the final are actually playing worse than they were at the time of the pool game.

If NZ had lost, then you might have questioned their tactics. But they came up a French side similar to 2007 that tackled their hearts out. Was Henry prepared for such a team to come out yesterday? It doesn´t appear so. But when France play with that sort of level of commitment on defence, it´s hard to combat them.

"That happened, so this will happen?" is a very interesting thread. It's not an original thought, but I also think human beings have an inbuilt desire to find some kind of order in the cosmos - which includes rugby!. People certainly do try to extract meaning from previous results. It's how rugby journalists mostly earn a living and the basis for the newspaper articles we enjoy reading. A lot of fun would be taken out of the game if this were not the case.

'post hoc ergo propter hoc' a logical fallacy.

But sadly one committed all too frequently on these boards Glas a du.

I can understand why. It´s like the post: ´there´s no logic to why I think they´ll win. It´s just a feeling I have.´ I think I´ve said that before talking about how Wales will do in the World Cup. We all like to think we´re in control and not in an impenetrable abyss of the unknown.

Who do you think will win the 6N? The 4N? The 2015 RWC?

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:But sadly one committed all too frequently on these boards Glas a du.

I can understand why. It´s like the post: ´there´s no logic to why I think they´ll win. It´s just a feeling I have.´ I think I´ve said that before talking about how Wales will do in the World Cup. We all like to think we´re in control and not in an impenetrable abyss of the unknown.

Who do you think will win the 6N? The 4N? The 2015 RWC?

6N - Ireland
4N - South Africa
2015 RWC - England

Just got a feeling....

Nice one Glasgow. If they all came true, you´d stand to make a lot of money.

Do your feelings run to the financial or property markets by any chance?

Unfortunately not, they just give me the feeling of sickness...