Future of Rugby in Europe

This is how I see the future of Rugby in Europe over the next 5-10 years.

The Top 14 and Jeff will stay around the same, LV cup may be done away with. Salary caps slighty increased. But by and large no major changes.

In the Pro 12 the Italian teams will leave, to be replaced buy an additional team from each of Scotland and Wales.

The leaving Italians will form the basis of a Continental League, involving teams from Italy, Germany and Romania. Teams would prob be for Italy the Celtic League teams Aironi and Benetton Rugby Treviso, plus the addition of Praetorians Roma, "Cavalieri Toscana Rugby Eccellenza", (a new rugby franchise with the aim to represent the professional élite rugby of region Tuscany set up in 2010) and maybe one other. From Germany the Wild Titans (the team of the Wild Rugby Academy), Another team from a similar institution in the north of Germany, and the professional clubs SC 1880 Frankfurt and Heidelberger RK. The Romanians would add two regional team long the lines of Bucharest Wolves and Bucureşti Oaks.


The Russian League looks like it has a solid foundation, and could be the one to really take off.
In Professional Rugby League (the premier rugby union competition in Russia) the average attendance is around 4285. Top teams have an operating budget of around 3.5m Euros, and there are future plans to include teams from Latvia, Lithuania and Kazakhstan.

For a starting point the Budget must be around the same as the Scottish sides, the average attendance of the bigger clubs must be better than a number of clubs, (Glasgow Edinburgh Aironi).
Given this is before they get into the H-cup, or Amlin you have to say it looks good in Russia, they can grow those crowds, from an already good starting point, and increase budgets with more exposure in H-cup, and you'd have to say that the bigger clubs could be operating at the same level as the English salary cap in a few years. Add in a club or 2 getting taken over by an oil barron, and you could make a case of a very strong league.

That would give us 5 strong Leagues to draw teams for the h-cup from.

These five I believe would be capable of substaining themselves, without the teams getting into financial difficulties.

I've left out the Spanish team Club Rugby La Vila Comunidad Valencia, and a Possible Portgeuse team as I believe thay may make the Continental League unviable, with addition distances, and Clubs Spanish/Port clubs would not have the crowds or finance to survive.

There may be a possiblity of adding two regional teams to the Continental League from the Netherlands, made out of the clubs playing in the Ereklasse (the highest tier of the national rugby union competition in the Netherlands).

Thoughts is a 5 League europe looking like a possibity, will the Italians levae the Celtic League and form the basis of a Continental League? would a Continental League form without them?
Will the Russian League take off?
Will teams from these two new Leagues be able to compete against the existing teams?

I can see where you are going with the Italians splitting off to make way for the 'new' welsh/scottish sides. However, I think that if wither the welsh/scottish get extra sides the Rabo will just end allowing the other european nations (sides as you mentioned) to join in a lower league with promotion/relegation play offs between the top place teir two league team and the bottom place teir one league team.

Personally I don't see the Italians leaving the likes of Munster and Ospreys and Leinster to go play Germans and Romanians.

Won't happen IMO.

I think 5-10 years is a wildly optimistic time frame for these predictions.The Scots can't get people in to watch the 2 teams the have and the Welsh are doing okay for crowds but are nowhere near being ready to expand to a 5th team.

asoreleftshoulder wrote:I think 5-10 years is a wildly optimistic time frame for these predictions.The Scots can't get people in to watch the 2 teams the have and the Welsh are doing okay for crowds but are nowhere near being ready to expand to a 5th team.

Agree I don't see that any of the Pro 12 teams except for Italy has the potential for another region/franchise/province by 2020.

Yeah gotta say, i think the leagues will pretty much be the same....

But there might be a few more nationalities in the HC / Amlin thoughas teams grow and the competition expands....and the Euro nations cup (6N's B,C,D,E etc ) might get a little bit more competitive......

A continental league is an interesting idea, might work with the Russia league being a kind of Eastern league like I suggusted on Kingsu's previous thread. The one thing that is annoying me is what will Georgia do? Will their players just stay in France like the Argentina, or will they come home? We have seen what this has done to them in terms of playing time. They couldn't go in the Russia league for safety reason, Russia-Georgia international matchs between the two are still held at nutral venues as a result of the war between the two. It would be a pity for them to be left behind as I believe them and Russia are the most promissing rugby nations. That is the one problem imo.

Your right Stag, I don't see them leaving the likes of Munster and Leinster to play lesser teams, however I do see the Italians wanting to expand to at least 4 regional teams. I just don't know how they will work it out.

Maybe the pro 12 will become the pro 14? I just don't know what the Italian long term plans are? If they create regional teams will they grow annoyed at not getting the chance to be in the H-cup? if Italy get to enter 2 more teams, it means Scotland and Wales will never get the chance to expand, would the WRU or SRU allow the Italians to enter 2 more in that case? Italy will be th first country in the Pro 12 wishing to expand, but where to?

Scarletspiderman, I don't ever see the pro 12 growing to two divisions, for one, none of the unions would agree to it and risk one or all of their teams being in the second teir, and then H-cup qualifaction, how could a team in Div 2 get in before a team in Div 1? and the Unions won't agree to league position as it means they risk their teams not being in H-cup.

Irishcurry, I had the same thoughts regarding Georgia, the Russia league looks set to expand and they may be left behind, it would make an intresting league if 2 Georgian teams joined it, and would be sure to attract crowds but, can't see it happening.

In 2011-12, there will be a North Sea Cup, a European Cup competition made up of two clubs each from Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Maybe this will pave the way to them to grow closer before joining up as a Continental League.

Still leaves us 5 leagues in Europe, but what happens Spain, Portugal and Georgia?

Not a hope in hell of the Italians leaving after fighting so long to get into the league. Its a growing sport in Italy (just look at how far their International team has come since joing the 6Ns) and Arioni and Treviso will only get stronger as the years go on.

Plus another nothing Scottish and Welsh team with support of 600 is not whats needed.

If the Italians ever left it would be because they had out grown the Pro12. After that they would join their own league or join in with the French league. I doubt they will within the next ten years at least, hopefully never.

Maybe in 25 years but never in 10 year let along 5!

The Italians aren't about to leave the Pro 12 any time in the near/medium term.

They need to grow what they've got right now before getting any more teams in the Pro 12.

What happens though if they want to add 1 more team like Roma? Do we end up with a lopsided league or will they only be allowed if another country wanted to also add a team, with I guess, Scotland the preferred choice to expand their player opportunities.

But I think any changes are a long way off.

The main issue for the Italians is if they are allowed to join the Rabbo full time. Its not a done deal and this is the last season on a 2 year deal I believe. If the are allowed to join full time, its more likely that by 2020 they expand to 4 teams.

Now with the news Connacht and even the Dragons enhancing their status and facilities moving forward, I wonder how long before the Welsh, Irish and Italians (if they grow in branding) will wonder what the Scottish are contributing. Don't get me wrong here I wouldnt want to see them ejected but someone really needs to sort the SRU out because its not helping Scottish Rugby to be uncompetitive in the league.

Every other franchise is looking to secure their best National Players to their respective teams. Scotland actively seem to be happy to release theirs, let someone else pay for the wages for 80% of the season and then pay for the early player releases later on. Its a shrewd move on their part in the short term.

The problem I have however is that its not even as if the best Scottish players are playing for other Rabbo sides. Most are playing in the English league. This hurts the league in my opinion and if the Rabbo really does want to grow in stature the home unions will need to keep hold of their best players.

So based on the above by 2020 it may be that their is no Scottish particiaption. Maybe unlikly but I'd wager thats a more likely scenario than the Italians leaving.

I hope that the Italians increase their teams at some stage in the future, go back to create their own league but they are still quite a way from that. Let them grow in their own time.

red_stag wrote:Personally I don't see the Italians leaving the likes of Munster and Ospreys and Leinster to go play Germans and Romanians.

Won't happen IMO.

+1

Why give up facing top class rugby teams to go play part timers?

Doesn't make sense and won't happen. If there is a new welsh/scottish or even italian region introduced, the league will just be extended to accomodate them.

At what point would we stop though? 12 teams is good,14 wont make much difference but beond that how many counld the league take with the home and away, and whay format might be used if the league is ever expanded beond that point?

It would probably be capped at 14, more than that is a too much