Back to the Old School 9 (AP Preview Round 9)

So it's back to the Premiership this weekend after two weeks of Euro action. Here's a reminder of how the table's looking currently.

P W L D PTS
• Harlequins 8 8 0 0 34
• Saracens 8 7 0 1 30
• London Irish 8 3 1 4 20
• Gloucester Rugby 8 4 0 4 19
• Sale Sharks 8 4 0 4 19
• Northampton Saints 8 4 0 4 18
• Bath Rugby 8 4 0 4 18
• London Wasps 8 4 0 4 18
• Exeter Chiefs 8 3 0 5 17
• Leicester Tigers 8 2 1 5 14
• Worcester Warriors 8 2 1 5 12
• Newcastle Falcons 8 1 1 6 7

Sitting happy at the top of the league, Harlequins will look forward to facing Newcastle at home at the Stoop. And after winning both their HC matches including an emphatic away win against Gloucest, the Londoners will be looking for the bp against the league bottom dwellers, Newcastle though will have the surprising sensation of coming in to the game off the back of two wins of their own.

Prediction: Quins fail to get the bp against a beligerant Falcons but still win by 10+

Saracens will look to heap woe on Northampton as they travel to Franklins Gardens. They had a mixed HC campaign with a 5 try demolition of Treviso followed by an edgy loss away to Biarritz. Their league form though has been far more consistent with only one loss so far this season. Saints on the other hand have had a nightmare time of it in Europe going down to a late ROG drop goal at Munster before being shown up by the Scarlets at home.

Prediction: Saints can't find a way to break down the Saracens defence, Saracens by 6

Another team who'll want to put the HC behind them are London Irish. Suffering losses home and away to Edinburgh and Cardiff Blues means that they now only have the Prem to focus on and what better way to get back on track then with a local derby away against London Wasps . Wasps for what it's worth have had an enjoyable time putting ACC minnows to the sword, but will this leave them undercooked?

Prediction: Wasps by 10 as they unleash their strike runners against a disorganised LI

Gloucester had to wait two years to lose at home and now like buses two have come at once, and to top things off it won't get any easier as they host Leicester at home this weekend. Aside from their home loss to Quins in Europe they did manage a brilliant performance to almost steal a win at Toulouse showing their danger when they do click. Leicester have looked a lot more like their old selves over the last two weeks, they still lack much cutting edge and any threats out wide but the pack is now back on track and with that who needs backs? Two mauling, battling, bruising and ultimately retro Leicester wins in Europe agaisnt Arioni and Ulster will give them confidence to head to the West Country and pillage a win.

Prediction: Sorry Gloucester but it's all about the forwards, Leicester by 10

Sale are another team mucking around in the ACC, with a loss to Brive and a spanking of La Vila the last two weekends probably haven't told them much they don't know. Exeter are almost exactly the same again a loss the French Perpignan and then a spanking of Cavalieri will have at least shown both teams they can score when allowed. Can either work the opportunites this week though?

Prediction: Very even with home advantage edging it for Sale, by 5

Bath will have enjoyed their two weeks in Europe so far, with a losing bp against Glasgow and a win against Montpelier they also got the chance to welcome and bed in Stephen Donald. This weekend we'll see just how good a signing he was as they take on Worcester at Sixways. Worcester again did some stuff in the Amlin, notably losing to Stade Francais. To be honest Bath have to win this game, with the money spent on foreign players staying in in 7th place is not an option and Worcester aren't very good.

Prediction: Bath by 15 with Donald getting MoM

Your thoughts?

Oh how I hope you are right about Glaws v Tigers.

Might Quins look to rotate players - if so clear win for Quins but no TBP.
Can Saints afford to rest players? Can they afford not to? agree narow win for Sarries.

Wasps to beat LI - but not as many tries as we may hope.

Sale by +7. Just too big and too ugly.

Worcester to stay very close to Bath. another ugly game - Bath enter lat 10 minutes with a narrow lead - can they hold on?

I like the Gloucester vs Tigers prediction but I can't see Glaws falling to another defeat at home, they are going to be stinging after the last two and the Shed will be at it's vocal best trying to instruct the ref at every turn. Tigers forwards are in form but unless the backs get some players back (if Twelvetrees isn't fit enough then we'll be using flankers in the centres soon!) and start giving us some flair as against Ulster the only time we played a little was when we scored (noteabley when Ben Youngs came on).

I can see the top two continuing their march onwards. Sarries will just be to ruthless for an out of sorts Saints team who are struggling to hang onto the ball at the minute. Quins will beat Newcastle but may find it tough going at the set piece where the Falcons are looking more organised of late.

yappy, great stuff. My predictions & reasons:

Quins to beat the Falcons but no TBP - form, form and form
Sarries find FG a happy hunting ground - LBP for Saints
Irish to rebound from Euro woes - LBP for Pests
Can't see Glaws losing at Kingsholm again, altho that's the Xth time I've said that - LBP for Tigers
Exe without Naqer, but that might force them to be more creative, and Chiefs forwards will dominate - LBP for Sale
Home advantage for Barf - no LBP for Wuss

Lord knows that Tigers need to win this one, but it is a big ask I think. We drew them at the Shed last year after a spectacular fight back by the Cherry & Whites. I would expect nothing else from them, as has been pointed out already, they are going to be hurting from last week and will want to restore some pride.

But it's getting very cluttered around the mid table. There are only 5 points the difference between 4th spot and 10th spot! It's all to play for.

With our continued injury crisis I can't see us getting into the Top 4, but I think 6th and HEC qualification for next year is a must.

I would say if you win this game then you're still looking good for top 4, lose this one and it's only going to get tougher. You just have to think Gloucester's spot has your name on it.

I'd like to see Quins bench Evans, Brown, Robson and either Robshaw or Fa'Asavalu for the Falcons match and in their places start Clegg, Casson, Eerrr academy boy whose name i've forgotten and Wallace. I also expect Care to start.

Tbh with the last two losses I imagine Gloucester are mentally in a very strange place at the moment and conversely I don't think there'll be a better time for you boys to head on over.

Remember people were saying the same of Tigers losing streak (that they'd use it to bounce back) but it went on for a fair while in the end.

Lord knows that Tigers need to win this one, but it is a big ask I think. We drew them at the Shed last year after a spectacular fight back by the Cherry & Whites.

Wasn't that at Welford Rd where Staunton threw an interception pass in the 79th minute . I think we lost at Kingsholm last year to a late Vainikolo try.

ASBO,

Did you get to see Chiefs put Cavalieri to the sword? Must have been nice viewing if it was televised, be nice to see a repeat of that this weekend.

Glaws only have themselves to blame! Castle Grim isn't seen as a a fortress after losing 2 games that we should and could have won. We went to pieces in the last 10 mins against Sarries and dropping the ball twice in the act of scoring against Quins doesn't help keep a proud record!

Last season we had 2 fantastic games against Tigers. The last minute try by Big Les produced one of the biggest cheers all season, so we need a repeat performance. It will be a hell of a forward battle, which is exactly the type of rugby I love. I would expect a few changes in the Glaws backrow and I wouldn't be surprised to see Deacon return, probably at 8.

It is going to be a close game, but Glaws simply must win this game. It will be interesting to see how our youngsters cope with this pressure and expectation and it could be the making of some and the braking of others...

Glaws by 5.

In terms of the others:
Sale by 5
Wuss by 3
Irish by 10
Sarries by 3
Quins by 25

yappysnap wrote:ASBO,

Did you get to see Chiefs put Cavalieri to the sword? Must have been nice viewing if it was televised, be nice to see a repeat of that this weekend.

Didn't get down, sadly, but I imagine they'll show the match before the Wuss game

Have to say i'm amazed by the decline of Northmpton. End of last season it all looked good but now? I can see them missing making the last six. Saracens I expect are going to man shame them come the weekend.

They desperately need fresh blood at centre another physical backrow player and some one to cover full back and replace the versatility and leadership or Rehana.

Do they even have an academy? As unfortunately without that it'll cost a fair bit to fix the problems otherwise.

yappysnap wrote:Have to say i'm amazed by the decline of Northmpton. End of last season it all looked good but now? I can see them missing making the last six. Saracens I expect are going to man shame them come the weekend.

They desperately need fresh blood at centre another physical backrow player and some one to cover full back and replace the versatility and leadership or Rehana.

Do they even have an academy? As unfortunately without that it'll cost a fair bit to fix the problems otherwise.

They pinched Dusty Hare from us just over a year ago to run their academy.

Quins to beat falcons comfortably with a bp, I see no reason why the winning run will finish here, great form from quins.
32-14

Saints were very unfortunate to lose away to munster and did lack composure after going behind early to the scarlets but I dont think these results will affect their AP form. Sarries are probably the best side in england at the mo, so I do expect a good game this weekend. losing bp for sarries but there'll be no try bp's.
22-16


LI look to be missing some key players and I think they will struggle to maintain their position in the AP over the coming weeks. Wasps also lack player depth and consistency of performance but I fancy them to win this one.
26-12

I was suprised by gloucesters 2nd defeat at home, I really was. But still think they are a dangerous team especially at kingsholm. tigers pack are looking powerful again but their lack of fit centres is a real problem. this will be a close one.
gloucester 17-14

sale are punching above their weight slightly and the exeter pack are very solid indeed but I agree with OP that home advantage maybe key.
Sale 20-16

Bath have not looked convincing very often this season but i think donald is a great signing and i expect a good performance from him and bath this weekend. the warriors will struggle this season they will need lbp but i dont think they'll get one here.
bath 38-12

Emotionally preparing myself for the annual saracens victory at the gardens. I believe Mallinder's proposed career move is not doing the team any favours

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Wasn't that at Welford Rd where Staunton threw an interception pass in the 79th minute . I think we lost at Kingsholm last year to a late Vainikolo try.

I shall clarify... I was in Gloucester because of my daughters divisional training camp at Hartpury College. The wife and I went into town to watch the game and spent a nice afternoon in the pub across the road from the Shed. Therefore (in my head at least) it was an away game!

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Wasn't that at Welford Rd where Staunton threw an interception pass in the 79th minute . I think we lost at Kingsholm last year to a late Vainikolo try.

I shall clarify... I was in Gloucester because of my daughters divisional training camp at Hartpury College. The wife and I went into town to watch the game and spent a nice afternoon in the pub across the road from the Shed. Therefore (in my head at least) it was an away game!

bobo don't be disheartened.

I was disappointed with Saracens against Biarritz.

Saint's biggest strength IMO is your set piece. Our set piece floundered particularly badly vs Biarritz.

Without a solid platform to launch attacks from we were always fighting a losing battle.

Saints are in a way similar to Biarritz - a lack of confidence because of numerous losses but you still have an excellent team. Also you are home.
Both you and Biarritz have strong rows and deadly back threes.

Biarritz beat us with two blistering counter attacks led by their back three. Saints are capable of the same. It's the best way to score tries against Saracens because our defensive is generally very well organised.

I have a strange feeling Saints will win. You'll vent all your frustations on Saracens.

From a Saracens perspective I want us to pick the strongest pack we can and simply go for it. We have to be aggressive. I want us to actually keep the ball in hand and not kick it every other second. Build up the phases, be patient and the gaps will open. We are good at building up pressure. That's what need to do. The points will come if we do. Our backline can score tries so let's use them.

Unfortunately what we'll probably do is repeatedly kick the ball away. Foolish to do that against the Saints back three but we did it vs Biarritz's back three.

Do they even have an academy? As unfortunately without that it'll cost a fair bit to fix the problems otherwise..

They do, Hartley and Lawes being the most recent products of it. There isn't a great number on the way through though, I can only think of Nutley and the hooker Hayward who are on the fringes. There's the winger Armstrong as well but he isn't up to much.

I shall clarify... I was in Gloucester because of my daughters divisional training camp at Hartpury College. The wife and I went into town to watch the game and spent a nice afternoon in the pub across the road from the Shed. Therefore (in my head at least) it was an away game!

Perfectly acceptable.

My tuppence worth on this weeks games...

Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons - Can see a massive bonus point wins for Quins here. Falcons are poor and Quins are riding the crest of a wave at the moment.

Northampton Saints vs. Saracens - Saints form is patchy, but they will be up for this one, and I can see them just about holding off a tough Saracens team. No TBP for Saints, but an LBP for Sarries.

London Irish vs. London Wasps - No Comment. Seriously…… I said 'No Comment'.

Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers - Pains me saying this as I like Gloucester and they have some really talented young backs there who are great to watch, but the Tiggers are starting to grind through the gears, and I think will grind Glaws down to take the spoils. No TBP for East Midlanders though, and Glaws to sneak an LBP in this one.

Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs - Two evenly match teams for me, but home advantage swings it for Sale, and like in other games, no TBP but an LBP for the Chiefs.

Bath vs. Worcester Warriors - Bath are a good side who can step up a gear at times, but don't look able to do that consistently yet. Worcester are a functional side who will make things tough for oppoents and hope to utilise their nifty back three to strike and pick up point sin games. Can see this being a high scorer, with possibly a TBP for Bath, and the potential for an LBP and TBP for Warriors (much like the Edinburgh vs. RM92 game last week).

Obviously I am slightly biased as an Irish fan, but there seems to be a lot of people predicting Wasps wins here and by margins of 10+. No disrespect to Wasps, but Irish haven't lost a game by more than 7 all season, and that includes away to Saints, Leicester, Quins and Cardiff. Let's not forget that this match is at the Madejski. Although Irish are a little light in the centre it will be a good chance for Armitage or Spratt to step up and we will also welcome back Casey and possibly new signing Treviranus. I personally think Irish will win this match, and fully expect them to do so. If they do slip up however, it would be a major shock if it was by the 10+ points that some on here are predicting.

formerly known as Sam wrote:

Do they even have an academy? As unfortunately without that it'll cost a fair bit to fix the problems otherwise..

They do, Hartley and Lawes being the most recent products of it.

I don't mean to gnit pick but Wuss fans will not be pleased to see you write that!! Hartley was very much a product of Worcester and played quite a few games for them - he moved to Saints to play under Thomo.

beshocked wrote:bobo don't be disheartened.

I was disappointed with Saracens against Biarritz.

Saint's biggest strength IMO is your set piece. Our set piece floundered particularly badly vs Biarritz.

Without a solid platform to launch attacks from we were always fighting a losing battle.

Saints are in a way similar to Biarritz - a lack of confidence because of numerous losses but you still have an excellent team. Also you are home.
Both you and Biarritz have strong rows and deadly back threes.

Biarritz beat us with two blistering counter attacks led by their back three. Saints are capable of the same. It's the best way to score tries against Saracens because our defensive is generally very well organised.

I have a strange feeling Saints will win. You'll vent all your frustations on Saracens.

From a Saracens perspective I want us to pick the strongest pack we can and simply go for it. We have to be aggressive. I want us to actually keep the ball in hand and not kick it every other second. Build up the phases, be patient and the gaps will open. We are good at building up pressure. That's what need to do. The points will come if we do. Our backline can score tries so let's use them.

Unfortunately what we'll probably do is repeatedly kick the ball away. Foolish to do that against the Saints back three but we did it vs Biarritz's back three.

As you say clearly the most potent parts of the saints game is the set piece and the threat posed by the back three-feel free to fire any scrums and kicks our way

On a serious note saracens have been our bogey team for many a year it sees, your defense is able to shut down our heavy runners; downey,tonga'uiha etc, vital elements to our game, take that away and we tend to struggle against good teams.

Heres to a good game at the weekend

I don't mean to gnit pick but Wuss fans will not be pleased to see you write that!! Hartley was very much a product of Worcester and played quite a few games for them - he moved to Saints to play under Thomo..

Ah my mistake.

True bobo we have been a bogey team of yours. The stats do back it up. I believe we have the best record in the AP vs you.

Though that's the case I am very nervous. You have a big point to prove, are at home and still have a talented team.

Cheers bobo

SirBurger wrote:Obviously I am slightly biased as an Irish fan, but there seems to be a lot of people predicting Wasps wins here and by margins of 10+. No disrespect to Wasps, but Irish haven't lost a game by more than 7 all season, and that includes away to Saints, Leicester, Quins and Cardiff. Let's not forget that this match is at the Madejski. Although Irish are a little light in the centre it will be a good chance for Armitage or Spratt to step up and we will also welcome back Casey and possibly new signing Treviranus. I personally think Irish will win this match, and fully expect them to do so. If they do slip up however, it would be a major shock if it was by the 10+ points that some on here are predicting.

my predic

Hi Sir burger

I believe its my prediction you are refering to and I agree it does seem a little unfair to predict a 10+ defeat. I must say i didnt realise Casey and armitage would be back for this game ( what about kennedy?), they could make a huge difference. I have just been very unimpressed with irish this season they seem to be relying on the boot of Homer too much and dont seem to have replaced S. Armitage in the back row.

Admittedly our last two performances have been a little dire (albeit one of them was with 14 men). However, although we have relied on Homer to an extent, some of our attacking play has actually been very good. Bowden poses a real running threat at 10, and we will have some strong strike runners available in Thompstone, Ojo and Ansbro. With regard to Steff, we have just got in Samoan flanker Ofisa Treviranus who I think will go some way to filling the void left by S.Armitage...Anyway, I didn't mean to get defensive, and I can understand some people predicting a Wasps win, I just was surprised by the margins which some on here were suggesting....I'm not sure if you are a Wasps fan or not, but either way, let's hope for a good round of Aviva Rugby!

London Irish has made four changes to the side that faced Cardiff last Friday.

Tomorrow’s Aviva Premiership match against London Wasps at Madejski Stadium kicks-off at 3.00pm.

Jonathan Spratt and Joe Ansbro will form the centre combination and Paul Hodgson will partner Dan Bowden at half back. James Buckland will start at hooker in a front row that includes Clarke Dermody and Faan Rautenbach. Jamie Gibson returns to openside flanker with new signing Ofisa Treviranus named as a replacement.

London Irish head coach Toby Booth said: “it is good to be back to Aviva Premiership action. It is currently very close between quite a few sides so we will continue to play competitively and hope to come away with a result and maintain our play-off position.”

London Irish team to face London Wasps:

15. Tom Homer; 14. Topsy Ojo; 13. Joe Ansbro; 12. Jonathan Spratt; 11. Adam Thompstone; 10. Dan Bowden; 9. Paul Hodgson; 1. Clarke Dermody (Captain); 2. James Buckland; 3. Faan Rautenbach; 4. Nick Kennedy; 5. Matt Garvey; 6. Declan Danaher; 7. Jamie Gibson; 8. Jebb Sinclair

Replacements: 16. David Paice; 17. Max Lahiff; 18. Alex Corbisiero; 19. James Sandford; 20. Ofisa Treviranus; 21. Anthony Watson; 22. Adrian Jarvis; 23. Ross Samson

Head Coach: Toby Booth; Attack Coach: Mike Catt; Defence Coach: Justin Bishop

*Denotes International

I have to say, i am pretty happy with that side, and am more confident now of beating Wasps than I was earlier in the week. Wasps have some talent and pace in the backs, but I think we can dominate them up front and control the game.

Irish by less than 7.

I agree - 4 excellent ball-carriers in the pack to bring on off the bench as well. Shame that Bob still isn't back though...

Would be good to see Bob back, but I understand the arm injury is still troubling him. Really hope that it doesn't end up being a career ender.

I am particularly liking having that tough scrummaging front row starting, and three dynamic front rowers coming off the bench. Really looking to see what the new Samoan can do as well, and great to see Dodge back in the 9 jersey.

Wasps and Irish look pretty even so I think it'll come down to home advantage and then a few key players and each teams replacements. In all those areas LI win (on paper).

Im not a wasps fan, I like to see all the 'london' sides doing well.

Im not particularly impressed by wasps either but i think they have more of their 1st team players available.

I do like bowden at 10, maybe there are some questions marks over his tacticaal game at 10 though. Hodgeson is a key player for irish, getting the ball out quickly to those strike runners that you mention will be vital.

It should be a good game. although i feel both these sides may struggle this season.

I think once we get some of our players back from injury and suspension we should be alright. I think the play offs may prove a bridge to far for us, but I think Heineken Cup qualification is well within our capabilities and we should finish top half of the table.

ozzy i agree that you'll be stronger when key players return but im not sure irish will make the top 6. i think sarries, leicester, northampton, quins, gloucester and bath will make up the top 6, if irish do make it they'll have done well.

Happy, happy, happy with that win today. Was not pretty, but we toughed it out and with our first choice 9,10,11,12,13 and 15 all missing through either suspension or injury I really didn't expect us to be running in tries in this one in any case.

Big, big game next week away at Saracens. Not sure who if anyone we will have back but if we defend like we did for 79 minutes today for 80 next week we will have a chance.

We will have Chris H back which will make a huge difference, and hopefully Ofisa can add a bit more dynamism to the pack (presumably off the bench after Gibson and Dec's performance). DB should be back as well - I am slightly fearful of a Sarries backlash though after yesterday's result.