AP Round 10 Preview (is it that time already?)

So the last weekend of Premiership Rugby is upon us before we get to the HC double headers! I'm expecting some hum dingers this round as teams look for good performances to grow their confidence and to get those W's and the all important winning momentum leading up to Europe's make or break two weeks. Are you excited?

A quick recap of the last weekend saw Worcester battle past a frankly flacid Bath team, and Exeter stun Sale away at Edgely Park. Sat followed with Northampton man-shaming Saracens at the Gardens then LI continued their sporadic form with a turgid win over Wasps, before Leicester showed talk of them missing out on top four this season was lunacy as they heaped woe on Gloucester at the Shed. The weekend finished with league leaders Quins putting bottom dwellers Falcons to the sword.

The table as it stands:
P W D L Pts
Harlequins 9 9 0 0 39
Saracens 9 7 0 2 30
London Irish 9 4 1 4 24
Northampton 9 5 0 4 22
Exeter Chiefs 9 4 0 5 21
Gloucester Rugby 9 4 0 5 20
Sale Sharks 9 4 0 5 20
London Wasps 9 4 0 5 19
Bath Rugby 9 4 0 5 18
Leicester Tigers 9 3 1 5 18
Worcester Warriors 9 3 1 5 16
Newcastle Falcons 9 1 1 7 7

So on to this weekends games:

First up on Friday night it's the Falcons hosting Gloucest, both teams go in to the game off poor performances and to me it could go either way, alot depends on the weather with rain suiting Falcons and drier conditons helping Gloucester. Although all home games are now must wins for falcons if they want to avoid the drop in the end I can't see past a Gloucester win, especially if they finally get some organisation within the backline.

Gloucester by 5 but no bp. Losing bp for Falcons.

On Sat Bath host Sale at the Rec and although they've been very hit and miss with their rugby these last few weeks I think they'll have too much for an imported Sale team lacking much spirit. Still though I can't see Bath's forwards controlling the game and it may well come down to how Donald plays to see how comfortable the win is.

If Donald plays well Bath by 10, if not Bath by 3.

Also in Saturday we have one of the best derby's going with 10th placed Leicester hosting 4th placed local rivals Saints. Both teams will be happy with their results last weekend and neither will want to ruin the feel good vibe with a loss now. Two key battles here for me to decide the match, the packs, if Saints come out firing like last weekend then an early lead is pretty certain, can they then stem the inevitable Tigers fight back. And also at flyhalf with Lamb v Flood being an interesting battle to watch for EPS spots.

I think i'll have to play it safe and say home advantage will win out giving Tigers their first home win of the season. Tigers by 8.

Cheifs host Worcester next on Sat and it may not be pretty but it should be a good battle for the forwards. I expect Exeter to show their extra smarts and prem savvy and grind out a win against Wuss who've looked competent at times but nothing more.

Exeter to score a decisive try and then keep that score ahead throughout. Exeter by 7.

Sun see's LI travel to Saracens and to be honest you have to expect a backlash, Saracens were ineffective last weekend unable to conjure anything for the full 80 so they'll be looking to lay down a marker for their home fans this time round. LI are another team searching for form and I don't think it's going to be found this weekend, I just can't see their pack competing against Sara's.

Can't see Saracens losing twice, I can see a winning bp and Saracens by 18 though.

And the last match of the weekend has Harlequins on the road to Wycombe to face Wasps. The pests have had a sporadic season to date and i can't see it getting better as the league leaders travel to them in a rich vein of form. Harlequins will be without various players due to injury so this will be the squads toughest test to date but they should rise to it and carry on the unbeaten run.

Quins to win by 8 in a scrappy match.

A win over Saints by 8 points? I'd take that. Should be a really hard fought game that one. Just hope Tigers can dismantle the lineout like last year and Welford Rd and start rebuilding their fortress home form ready for the Clermont game in a fortnight.

Theeway Saints took saracens apart I wouldnt rate this seaosns Tigers chances that highly. Their record agaionst the top side in the premeirship last season was pretty poor, dont see that changing this seaosn either. Easily the pick of the fixtures though, and hugley importnat for Tigers to continue their recovery.

Peterseabiscuit wheeler Saracens were flat and not up for the game. In comparison Saints were pumped, baying for blood and at home.

Tigers are at home remember.

Yappysnap I hope you are right about the Saracens backlash. It's the kick up the backside they needed. I can't see them losing. Too much pride and the team is surely too good to lose again?

Tigers are at home remember

Where we have yet to win in the league this season. The game is a sell out though so expect the wall of sound as the players come out onto the pitch. Hopefully that'll get the boys pumped, the changing rooms will be loud as well as the Crumbie should be packed and the feet stamping in unison.

Again I will choose not to comment on the Tigers prediction - other than saying I hope you are right.

As to the rest, the only place I disagree is the Bath-Sale match. Sale will be hurt by letting a good lead slip against Exeter and have a pack big enough to cause Bath serious problems. Bath should win, but I can see Sale sneaking it.

I think the Tigers will win. You have to win a home game eventually.

Your guys will be hugely motivated for this as it's the midlands derby.

I can see Saints starting strong and leading, but unlike against saracens they'll need to keep at it for the full 80. Leicester are too smart for that and will drag themselves back in to it and in the end win, doing just enough to deny the bp as well.

Ofcourse i may be completely wrong...

Wow. London Irish not lost by more than 7 all season so far, showed they can grind out a win last weekend, despite missing a shed load of players to injury or suspension, have our main ball carrying forward back this week along with the new Samoan who showed up well in the 40 minutes he had for the A team on Monday, and the OP has us down as losing by 18 with Saracens getting a TBP.

A little shocked by that to be honest. Hey, it might happen (more likely if Hodgson plays 10 than Farrell), but I am not sure where that sort of prediction really comes from given both teams most recent performances.

Ozzy you'll still be missing a shedload of players correct?Our team surely isn't going to play as badly against LI as it did vs Saints.We are at VR - it might be a dump but we haven't lost there for a long time. The team still be stinging. If Hodgson is back we'll have a proper attacking playermaker at 10.

If you base the result on our last result then yes we'll lose but I know our players are better than that.

I'm not saying you will lose beshocked, and not basing anything on one result.

Look at our season so far, with players missing we have not lost by more than 7 all season. We will have Hala'ufia and Bowden back this week. We may lose and I have no problem with people predicting that, just don't see where such a big margin of defeat comes, particularly given that Saracens have the lowest amount of 'points for' of the top 4 teams, and that includes them running in 50 in one game against the Tiggers.

Sorry Ozzy, I was just going by last weekend and seeing how the Saints game turned out when a team had something to prove I now see Saracens in the same boat. They have a very good pack and your's will struggle to compete against them and once the Saracens pack gain the advantage I think the tries will come.

Basically Saracens must put in a big game now. I dont think it really matters who they are playing.

No need to apologise yappy mate, you are entitled to your opinion, I just cannot agree with it.

Yes, I suspect that Saracens will come out fired up at us, but that is no different to any other time we have faced them. If you look back at the history of this fixture, you have to go back to 2004/05 for there to have been more than 6 points in it, indicating that they are usually cagey affairs.

I also suspect that Saracens will not want to lose 2 on the trot, and might try to keep things tight and play no risk rugby, so I just can't see it being a runaway victory by a big margin.

I may be wrong, it has happened once or twice, but I think (I know I am baised) that people are seriously underestimating our pack, who have been manning up pretty well so far this season, and dominated Wasps in the set piece last week, which earned us most of the penalties that won us the game.

yappy, nice preview there

My thoughts and predictions:
Newcastle vs Gloucester - going for a home win, Glaws season has gone a little awry and it's getting close to do-or-die time for Falcons - Newcastle by less than a score
Bath vs Sale - Diamond will have given the Sharks a right bollocking for capitulating to the Chiefs, and Bath have looked lacklustre - Sale by less than a score
Leicester vs Northampton - despite Saints impressive win over Sarries, wounded Tigers to get their season started properly in the Midlands derby - Leicester by less than a score
Exeter vs Worcester - Big forward-dominated battle, but Wuss without Mullan and Best, both out to injury; Chiefs to loosen the shackles and run in a few tries - Exe by more than a score with TBP
Saracens vs London Irish - Sarries to inflict backlash on injury- and suspension-afflicted Exiles - Saracens by more than a score [sorry, Pete]
London Wasps vs Harlequins - No end to the streak in this contest - Harlequins by more than a score

Here's my long-winder appraisal...

Glaws will be welcoming back one if not both of EFS and Sinbad - both of whom will add the much needed creativity in our backline. I've always rated Tindall despite the detractors, but I have also never shied away from the fact he is absolutely not an IC! His distribution is not good enough and his direct running has less impact as typically it is nearer the opposition forwards. Kingston Park has been a constant thorn to Glaws, but I genuinely believe this will be the year when we break that duck! This will be a close game, but Glaws will edge it by 5.

Tigers v Saints is far more appealing after their respective last performances. Both have excellent scrums, but this could be won on the interpretation of scrummaging by the ref as I do question at times how legal Saints technique is - but that's another argument! A long overdue home win will see Tigers win this by 6.

Bath v Sale sees 2 sides lacking form going head to head. The home advantage should see the win for Bath, but I can't see this being much of a game.

The Chiefs v Wuss should be a real humdinger. No offence to either, but it won't be a game for those that like fast flowing rugby, but it will be one of real intensity and great forward play - one I'd love to watch! Chiefs will win this by 10.

Sarries v LI will be another close game. Sarries haven't really be on form for some time, but with the exception of last week have been grinding out the wins - the classic sign of a good side. I firmly believe by the end of the season they will be the form side but in the meantime they will edge this by 5.

Finally Wasps v Quins will be another win notched up for Quins. Wasps just don't have much about them at the moment and the Quins pack will starve the fast back 3 of Wasps of any ball. Quins by 7.

My tuppence on all the games...

Newcastle vs Gloucester - Falcons fighting for their lives now and Glaws struggling a bit for results - Newcastle by less than 7

Bath vs Sale - To fairly evenly matched sides, so going with home advantage - Bath by less than 7

Leicester vs Northampton - Tiggers look like they are starting to rumble into gear, Saints will put up a fight, but for me it's - Leicester by less than 7

Exeter vs Worcester - Worcester are functional and combative, but at Sandy Park the Chiefs have a bit more about them - Exeter by less than 7

Saracens vs London Irish - Irish to dog it out against the overated Saracens . - Exiles by less than 7

London Wasps vs Harlequins - Wasps have some potent backs and will cause problems. Robinson due a good day with the boot, I can see the Quins run ending here - Wasps by less than 7

Asbo, shame on you!!!

Right that's it, I am changing my prediction.

Worcester by 345534654 in an absolute try fest.

<stormsofinahuffateveryonepredictinganexilesdefeatthenrealisesthathehasprediciteditaswellandskulksbacksheepishly>

Home field advantage to count in all the games bar 1.

I think Saints will carry their form to Welford Road and will be able to exploit the weaknesses in the Tigers' defence.

Sad though I am to say it, I can see Quins losing this weekend. The injury list is long - one starting lock, possibly Easter (with no recognised senior No 8 fully fit), Karl Dickson (who's been pushing Care hard for his spot), both starting centres and Ugo Monye. There has been semi-serious debate about whether Maurie Fa'asavalu should start at 12 instead of his customary 6 or 7.

Add to that the need to prepare for Toulouse 5 days later, and it will be a big ask for Quins to raise their game for Wasps. On the other hand, we've had to ask a lot of players to step up this season, and they have all done spectacularly well. So you never know.

I think Saints will carry their form to Welford Road and will be able to exploit the weaknesses in the Tigers' defence.

Same Tigers defence that has conceded one try in the last three games, that was an interception as well. The Tigers defence is starting to look a lot stronger now the internationals are back and the new players are gelling. Actually having a midfield is helping as well as Twelvetrees and Smith playing outside of a proper pack means there's plenty of muscle when it comes to the tackling.

I think Yappy had it right when he said it comes down to who has the better pack and fly half on the day. The tens have got to be clever and play the percentages rather than just attacking they need to play for territory and give their packs a foundation to play from. The pack battle will be attritional and the set pieces will be an old school battle Wood vs Croft will be interesting and the scrum with Castro vs Tiny and Ayerza vs Mujarti.

yappysnap wrote:I can see Saints starting strong and leading, but unlike against saracens they'll need to keep at it for the full 80. Leicester are too smart for that and will drag themselves back in to it and in the end win, doing just enough to deny the bp as well.

Ofcourse i may be completely wrong...

I'm a Saints fan and think that is a fair prediction, pretty much how I see it going myself. Then again I thought Saracens would win by about 5 last week so what do I know. The depressing thing (for me anyway) is that I can see the Tigers really pushing on from this game if the result goes their way.

My picks (and trust me, no one is worse than me at this)
Newcastle vs Gloucester - G by about 5
Bath vs Sale - B by about 7
Leicester vs Northampton - L by about 10
Exeter vs Worcester - E by more than 10
Saracens vs London Irish - S by more than 10
London Wasps vs Harlequins - H by less than 7

I think the Sarries - Irish game depends alot on who's fit for both teams.

Last week sarries really seemed to lack any direction, with an inexperienced half back pairing. The young scrum half needs someone at 10 to walk him through the game. Hodgson would make a huge difference to this.

Our pack has played better than it did last season. Apart from the mauling we got at Welford Road in terms of set piece, we have done well. Our scrum has improved and the battle between Corbs and Stevens (i'm guessing Stevens will be playing tighthead) will be very interesting consdering they were 1st and 2nd choice for the no 1 shirt for most of the world cup (and i personally think Corbs had done enough to make him first choice).

Hopefully with Bowden at 10 he can make our makeshift backline tick. Hala'ufia being back will give us some go forward as well. Also Big Bob will hopefully be back, and his presence even if he's on the bench and comes on for the last 20 mins could be influential.

Homer and Farrell will both knock over penalties with ease, so it could well come down to discipline. Sarries have to be favourites, but lets face it they're not the most free flowing side, so don't expect Sarries to batter us. Am looking forward to the game and hope Irish can surprise a few people.

Big Bob played 70 minutes on for the A team on Monday night so I suspect that although clearly fit (in injury terms) he won't be in the side for this one. I would suspect that we will see Garvey and Kendo in the second row, with Bryn Evans on the bench.

The new Samoan 'Big Trev' was taken off at half time, so I am guessing he will be in the matchday 23, possibly starting as Danaher seemed to finish the Wasps game limping. Would not be surprised to see us fielding a back row of Big Trev, Gibbo and the Hoff.

Must win for Falcons, this is a make or break game in our season. Gloucester usually don't like Kingston so I'll have my fingers crossed (whilst working the weekend )

I fancy Falcons by 5 in a scrappy afair against a very good Gloucester outfit.

Yea with the Quins injury list mounting and that Toulouse match on 5 days after I think a weakened side will be sent to Wycombe to just try and get the losing bp.

But really why the hell are we playing on Sunday when we then have a crunch matc against Toulouse on Friday night? Our second Friday match of the HC?! It's just really poor fixture organisation as far as i'm concerned, and again the TV companies looking after the biggest clubs to the detrement of the smaller teams. Where's ESP when you need him?!

If they were looking after the big clubs then surely the Tolouse game would be on a saturday?
Infact arent Quins a big club?

Theres still 5 clear days between the games and its nothing all clubs wont have to go through at some point. OK youve gone through 2 but then Quins get longer breaks ahead of their Jeff games, Im sure if they were scratting around mid table theyd bne moaning if the had HC games on a Sunday followed by a Jeff game on a Friday.
Quins should be glad this weekends fixture is against a team they can compete with even with a reduced side and who arent serious threats to their position in the top two.

and again the TV companies looking after the biggest clubs to the detrement of the smaller teams

You're top of the league now, got to put up with media attention and fixture movement.

Yappysnap who would you call the biggest clubs and who would you call the smaller teams?

I certainly wouldn't call Toulouse small!

ESPN don't have the Heineken cup matches unfortunately.

Saracens are playing at 6pm on Saturday in the HC which is a really annoying kickoff time. Also we have the friday night kickoff the week after.

Connacht and Gloucester probably get the best deal. Would you call them huge sides?

Also our match against Treviso wasn't televised.

Saracens will likelihood have a full strength pack though our backline might well be depleted. It's likely Nieto will start instead of Stevens. Nieto is a better scrummager. Corbisiero will find it tough against him IMO.

I think it depends what strategy Saracens try.

Also our match against Treviso wasn't televised.

Sky red button? They pretty much broadcast every game using that.

Whilst I agree that Nieto is a tough scrummager beshocked, I don't agree that Corbisiero will struggle against him. His own scrummaging is much improved in the last 18 months, and he has held his own against scrummagers who are as good as and better than Nieto in the past year.

Ozzy we'll see but I think Nieto is a much underrated scrummager. Certainly one of the best tight heads in the AP IMO.

It's the backrow and the lineout where I see us doing the damage. The intensity and physicality will be raised a notch or two. Particularly the backrow made up of Brown,Burger and Joubert. They won't give a inch.

I have no doubt that your back row will bring a lot of intensity and physicality, but as I said a bit earlier, I suspect that we may see Big Trev and the Hoff back for us this week, and they will also bring a lot of physicality into the contest.

As I said, I am not understimating Nieto at all, I rate his scrummaging highly, but Corbs is no slouch in department either, nor will either big Faan or Paulica be on the other side as well. I also suspect that Cabbage will retain the number 2 shirt as he is a better scrummager than Paicey, I would expect our scrum to at least gain parity in all honesty, and I would also expect us to secure our own lineout ball, and you to do the same.

They key battle for me is going to be the contact area/breakdown. That is where we lost the game against Edinburgh in the HC as we did not bring enough physicality or intensity to that area of the game. Since then, we stepped up against the Blues and Wasps in that area. I fully accept that we will need to step up another level again there against Saracens, but as I have said, we have the players to do so.

In all honesty I would be reasonably happy with a losing bonus point away at the AP champions, but looking at the two teams and their recent performances I genuinely feel that we have the chance of going there and winning the game.

Sorry Ozzy you'll have to explain to me who Hoff and Big Trev are.

It's your opinion you are entitled to it. I personally cannot see Saracens losing. Too much pride at stake. Our record at VR is too good. Our team is too good. Only Exeter beat us at VR last season in the AP.

I think it will be tight and cagy but I think we will prevail.

Yappysnap either hates London Irish or seriously underestimates them. Last week he predicted a loss by over 10 points at home to a poor Wasps side. This week he is going for a defeat of over 18 points to Saracens. Now Saracens are a strong side and will be looking for a big performance after a disappointing display against the Saints, but I don't think they have the ability to create an 18 point margin....Like I said last week when yappy and others were predicting a big Wasps win, Irish simply do not lose by more than 7 points. Maybe this week they will, but if it is by 18 I will eat my hat...

beshocked - Hoff is Hala'Ufia, Tongan Number 8. He seems to be underrated by fans of other clubs who don't get to see him play regularly, but he is, without doubt, one of the top ball carriers in the Premiership.

Big Trev is new signing Ofisa Treviranus - Samoan international who will play flanker for us. Very skilful and ferocious with the ball in hand. Seen as a replacement for Steff, although he may wear the number 6 shirt.

Fair enough Sirburger. I personally feel Saracens always have the potential to rack up a big score vs opposition but only on occasion actually do it. The chances of us racking a big score are unlikely from the way we have been playing but you never know.

On the other hand London Irish could pile on the misery.

I would just like to add that I fully expect Saracens to win! Just not by 18!

I like London Irish fans. Certainly less arrogant than their Irish cousins in the Pro 12, particularly one Irish club and their fans.

I agree to win by 18 is very optmistic but we can dream can't we?

beshocked, what do you reckon your lineup will be? My best guess for us would be...

Homer, Ojo, Ansbro, Spratt, Thompstone, Bowden, Hodgson; Corbisiero, Buckland, Rautenbach/Ion, Kennedy, Garvey, Treviranus, Gibson, Hala'ufia.

… although there are fitness doubts over Hodgson and Bowden as I understand things, so it could be Samson and Jarvis as the half back pairing.

beshocked

I think that part of the reason why London Irish fans don't generally come across as arrogant is that years of experience of supporting our team have taught us that even if we were to put Toulouse to the sword at their place one week and run in tries from all angles, it is just as likely that the following week we'd lose a dour game at home to Newcastle Falcons.

It's all part of the craic of being a London Irish fan, a complete rollercoaster of emotions, which sometimes makes us feel like we want to chuck our guts up, but in reality is exhilirating and none of us want to get off!

Cool Ozzy. Saracens used to be like that until 2 years ago. Now we have found a bit of consistency. I am sure we were more popular when we were less consistent and didn't have the South African influence.

It will likely be

15.Wyles
14.Maddock
13.Powell
12.Farrell
11.Short
10.Hodgson
9.Spencer
8.Joubert
7.Burger
6.Brown
5.Botha
4.Borthwick
3.Nieto
2.Smit
1.Gill

I have heard Barritt is out this week, not sure if C.Hodgson is back. If not then you might see this backline
9.Spencer
10.Farrell
11.Short
12.Powell
13.Stanley
14.Maddock
15.Wyles

I can Strettle being dropped after his shambolic defensive display vs Saints.

London Irish are one of those sides you can never write off.

I remember a few years back when Strettle was being touted as the next big thing for England. Real shame that he's not kicked on really as he did look a very good prospect before injury struck.

To be fair to me I never said that my predictions were good, if i could realistically guess these things well then there's far more profitable avenues to go down then online blogging...

As to the 18 point score line, maybe I just wanted a talking point?

And then my other comments about the fixture list. They were partially over the top and tongue in cheek. But no matter how you paint it, an away trip on a Sunday and then match on Fri gives the players just 4 days to train as they'll need Monday off or at least on very light training, then factor in no heavy training Friday and that's three days for what could potentially be the biggest match of our season.

And is it a coincidence that the team effected by this has only just got in to the HC and is not a major european team?

Conversely Toulouse have a home game on Saturday afternoon early.

And yes I would say Quins are a small club. In budget, squad depth and in stadium size we can't compare to a lot of teams out there.

Roll on lunchtime and the team announcements. Will be plenty to discuss then and could see some wanting to change their predicitions.

I wonder if any teams will rest big names before next weeks Heino matches???

Ozzy3213 wrote:I wonder if any teams will rest big names before next weeks Heino matches???

Maybe, but probably not at Welford Road as Tigers must win and Saints are virtually out of Europe.

I was thinking more about Quins, Bath and Saracens, all of whom still have realistic chances of qualifying, and all of whom have massive games next week.

Maybe, but probably not at Welford Road as Tigers must win and Saints are virtually out of Europe..

A tiny wee bit of a rivalry going on as well...

I was thinking more about Quins, Bath and Saracens, all of whom still have realistic chances of qualifying, and all of whom have massive games next week..

Tigers have won 2 from 2 and have Clermont for the next two weeks away then home. We just don't want to let the Stains win at Welford Rd (plus we need the points).

I'm guessing an Irish team of

1 Dermody
2 Buckland
3 Rautenbach
4 Garvey
5 Kennedy
6 Danaher
7 Gibson
8 Hala'ufia
9 Hodgson
10 Jarvis
11 Thompstone
12 Spratt
13 Ansbro
14 Ojo
15 Homer

I would like to see however...

1 Corbisiero
2 Buckland
3 Rautenbach
4 Garvey
5 Kennedy
6 Trevarinus
7 Gibson
8 Hala'ufia
9 Hodgson
10 Bowden
11 Thompstone
12 Spratt
13 Ansbro
14 Ojo
15 Homer

Oh I know the Tiggers have a massive double header coming up sam, but they can't afford to lose more ground in the AP which was why I wasn't thinking about them.

Quins and Sarries have a cushion in the AP so could rest people, and Bath I don't think realisitically believe they can win the AP, so may throw all of their eggs into the Heino basket.

I thought Dermody was injured stnick???

I would go with the same team as you, provided DB is fit. Roll on lunchtime when we'll find out.

Bath have realistic chances of qualifying in the HC? Seriously? They messed up their HC prospects by losing to Glasgow.

Sorry to disappoint you Ozzy. Can't think of any Saracens players we need to rest. Most of our key players have had rests this season anyway.

Need to put out the best team against London Irish. Need to put in a big performance before facing the O's at Wembley.