OWGR - Week #52 (end of 2011)

Just to finish off things on the OWGR front for this year...
Congrats to Westy and Poults for their very fine wins this week!
Lee just moves to #2 as a result, overtaking Rory on the line (a lot of that is due to the much lower divisor he has).
Poults jumps back up to #16 (and back ahead of Tiger) and I'm particularily happy to see Charl finishing the year inside the top 10. With that I'd say the final top 10 is a pretty true reflection of the best golfers over the past season...

Happy to see Gonzo making the top 50 in the end, but a disappointing exit from Ryo, who only needed the minimum score this week in order to make it, but he played really poorly and got what he deserved for it... Other movers and shakers include Marcus Fraser, who had one of the best set of results over the last couple of months and he's rewarded with an entry into the top 100. Tiger finishes the year on #23, a position wich, inspite of his late win at Chevron, is more a reflection of his minuscule divisor rather than the overall performance over the year (Stricker getting a bit guilty of that as well among the other players at the top)...

Otherwise, it looks like this could be a defining season for many of the 'major' players of the last 1-2 decades:
- Mickelson @ #14 (worst end of year finish since 1995)
- Furyk @ #50 (worst end of year finish since 1995)
- Goosen @ #53 (worst end of year finish since 1998)
- Els @ #56 (worst end of year finish since 1991)
- Harrington @ #85 (worst end of year finish since 1998)
- Tiger @ #23 (worst end of year finish since 1996)...

The OWGR table at the end of the 2011 season should look like this:

1 Luke Donald
2 Lee Westwood
3 Rory McIlroy
4 Martin Kaymer
5 Adam Scott
6 Steve Stricker
7 Dustin Johnson
8 Jason Day
9 Carl Schwartzel
10 Webb Simpson
------------------------------
11 Matt Kuchar
12 Nick Watney
13 Graeme McDowell
14 Phil Mickelson
15 K.J. Choi
16 Ian Poulter
17 Sergio Garcia
18 Justin Rose
19 Hunter Mahan
20 Paul Casey
21 Bubba Watson
22 Alvaro Quiros
23 Tiger Woods
24 Robert Karlsson
25 Kim Kyung-Tae
26 David Toms
27 Bill Haas
28 Simon Dyson
29 Bo Van Pelt
30 Bae Sang-Moon
31 Keegan Bradley
32 Rickie Fowler
33 Jason Dufner
34 Anders Hansen
35 Thomas Bjorn
36 Geoff Ogilvy
37 Zach Johnson
38 Brandt Snedeker
39 Fredrik Jacobson
40 Louis Oosthuizen
41 Francesco Molinari
42 Peter Hanson
43 John Senden
44 Miguel Jimenez
45 Y.E. Yang
46 Aaron Baddeley
47 Martin Laird
48 Darren Clarke
49 Gonzalo Fdez-C.
50 Jim Furyk
----------------------------
51 Ryo Ishikawa
52 Gary Woodland
53 Retief Goosen
54 Ben Crane
55 Jonathan Byrd
56 Ernie Els
57 Ryan Moore
58 Matteo Manassero
59 Robert Allenby
60 Greg Chalmers
61 Toru Taniguchi
62 Mark Wilson
63 Vijay Singh
64 Joost Luiten
65 Edoardo Molinari
66 Alexander Noren
67 Chez Reavie
68 Hiroyuki Fujita
69 Lucas Glover
70 Kevin Na
71 Rory Sabbatini
72 Nicolas Colsaerts
73 Ryan Palmer
74 Jeff Overton
75 Yuta Ikeda
76 Charles Howell III
77 Pablo Larazabal
78 Anthony Kim
79 Sean O'Hair
80 Brendan Jones
81 Koumei Oda
82 George Coetzee
83 Paul Lawrie
84 Charley Hoffman
85 Padraig Harrington
86 Jamie Donaldson
87 Thomas Aiken
88 Tetsuji Hiratsuka
89 Camilo Villegas
90 Gregory Havret
91 David Lynn
92 Scot Verplank
93 Spencer Levin
94 Tim Clark
95 Stephen Marino
96 Tommy Gainey
97 Marcus Fraser
98 Chris Kirk
99 Richard Green
100 Ross Fisher
---------------------------
101 Fredrik A. Hed
102 Michael Hoey
103 Richie Ramsay
...

Super Stuff as always PD,

Ross Fisher at No 100 is the one that stands out for me.....................he really needs to get a move on in 2012....................

The way Big Darren is dropping since Sandwich, he'll be lucky to make the Matchplay......................

Hi pd,
What happened to Lukey?
I crashed when he was T3 at -3 and woke to discover his worst back nine since I don't know when!
Great to have the update, and good for Gonzo. Couldn't care less about Ryo personally; he's had enough invites handed to him and if he's failed to earn an owgr top fifty ranking I've very little sympathy!
Good for Poulter and lw1 last night. And very pleased to see Schwartzel deservedly in the top ten. His achievements for the year very much overlooked in my eyes. And top 100 for Marcus Fraser!

Thanks for the update

Hi pd,

Good stuff as usual. You're correct, Tiger's actually sitting pretty considering. Poults and Charl likewise. Wonder how much focus on the course Ryo has lost over the past year. The 73 he shot today almost made his Thai adventure less than a disaster but not really.

The statistics showing decline for the Old Guard is revealing. This game will humble the best of them over time. The nervous system suffers as much as any and I believe is the main culprit because the guys are still physically capable of hitting their shots at this age.

Adam Scott is the biggest surprise of all. A few years ago, one could easily have imagined that he perhaps would never fulfill his potential on the course. He deserves as much praise as any for the past two years. Does anyone know the latest on his plans with Stevie as his caddie? Adam has accomplished much in the short time they've been together. Success allows one to accept living with the shrapnel flying about.

Poulter has had a strange year.

2011
Only 4 top 10's, but 2 of them wins. I would have expected his swing and solid putting would have made him a more consistant player. I guess his mental strength is the reason he converts most of his chances into victories.

A few others low down the list that surprise me.....

78 Anthony Kim
85 Padraig Harrington
89 Camillo Villegas
99 Richard Green
100 Ross Fisher

Quite surprised Scooby Doo is as high as he is considering the year he's had. He will drop down very fast next year if he doesn't improve.

For the first time in a while the top 10 looks about right to me, maybe I would move Jason Day down to 10.

“For the first time in a while the top 10 looks about right to me, maybe I would move Jason Day down to 10.”

This is a very strange comment to make, how often is the top ten wrong? For it to be wrong they would have to calculate someone’s point’s average incorrectly and that does not seem to happen often. Do you have reason to believe that Jason’s Day has more points attributed to him than he should?

No I wasn't suggesting there is some sort of error, just that I think it represents current form and the years achievements overall. Most of the time I look at them and think "how did he get in there?"

Agree on Ishikawa, I can't really see any signs from him or his team suggesting an intention to move to the next level. Seems to have settled (over the past two seasons at least) in a similar playing pattern (played the biggest no. of events in 2 years among all those in top 100) and with relatively similar results: 11 top 10s in 2010, 11 top 10s in 2011. Difference is that in 2010 he had 3 wins, but had none this season. He had that very good week at the Bridgestone when some of us thought we see signs of that 'next level' for him, but didn't seem to materialise...

As for Jason Day, he does stand out of the final top 10 at least from one point of view... he's the only one without a win in 2011! But on the other hand, in a statistic that I did the other day looking at the 2011 performance only in the 4 majors, 3 US-based WGCs and the Players, the top 3 are:
Luke Donald
Adam Scott
Jason Day
... and that kind of shows why he (and Scott for that matter) is in the top 10.

The obvious remark about those top 3 is that none of them won any of the majors...

I'd call Furyk at only 50 in the world a suprise. When the guard changes it does so quickly , Els, Goosen, Woods, Singh, even Mickleson to a degree.
Next two likely to go..... you would have to say LW and Stricker. Time gets them all in the end.

bit harsh diggers hes had 2 wins in the last 3 weeks! Singh was well into his 40s when he got to number 1!

Not many do that though Hend. I've said all along Westie would have a few years at the top at his age and still believe it, just because that's the norm.
But Ive certainly been wrong before and could well be again.

Rory's current twitter avatar:

Spoiler:

...and a proposed replacement for the time being (only temporary I would hope):

Spoiler:

Lets face it, they are referring to the number of seconds before Rory cant help blowing his load.

So the extra finger cant be a bad thing.

Here's my golfing Christmas message

http://elfyourself.jibjab.com/view/ZVYunOG2E5zBpUYw

Be patient, takes a bit to upload... if you're in work make sure you turn down the volume. You can select any other 'dance' from the menu on the left... Have fun!

Merry Christmas, everyone!

Merry Christmas pd,
Just had a gaze at those in the end of year Ryder Cup qualifying positions. It gets better every week:
Kaymer, McIlroy, F'Dez, Quiros, Garcia
Donald, Westwood, Rose, Dyson, McDowell.
Ten building blocks for a Happy New Year!

Oosthuizen, Goosen, Coetzee and Aiken all signed up and ready to go next Thursday in South Africa.
Field for Kapalua should be confirmed this coming Friday and expect most top Americans to be present and possibly correct, Phil a likely exception but Stricker may be there.

So far there aren't that many rushing with confirmations for Kapalua, among the non-US players I see that only Badds and Laird confirmed they will play...

As for the South African swing in January, I was hoping Ernie may review his plans and play in all those 3 events they will have over there next month. It was good to see him wining his own Invitational a couple of weeks ago and he could do with maintaining the good momentum and earning some ('many' would be even better) fresh owgr points asap!
But unfortunately, I'm pretty sure that nobody has pointed out to him yet, that he is in for an even bigger disappointment when he'll see the first owgr update in the new year! As the (hopefully) last max. divisor adjustment (from 54 to 52) is introduced from next week, our Ernie will have the misfortune of being the worst affected by this particular change... As it happens, the two events that will be cut out from his eligible 52 events, will be his last two big wins, i.e. Doral and Bay Hill in 2010! And with these two excluded, he will slump at least 10 more places further down the table before he even lifts a club in 2012!! (he'll be down to #66 or lower after week#1, so even his Match Play spot will be very uncertain). Poor Ernie, let's just hope he'll find his form again soon in 2012...

princeD

I hate to critise a top piece but I picked someone up recently for the same sort of odd comment. You wrote;

“I'd say the final top 10 is a pretty true reflection of the best golfers over the past season...”

Given that the system is not subjective and much fairer than any of our perceptions could manage I find it odd that you of all people would say this. How would it have not been the best reflection of the best gofers in the world, I don’t care if someone thinks player X has a better looking swing or whatever, the numbers don’t lie.

If you have reason to think the published results contain an inaccuracy would you be able to share this? If so is it common for the OWGR site to publish inaccurate data?


I hope this does not come across badly but I am always curious to find out why people think they have a better idea of the rankings than the official system.

Hi pd,
Hadn't realised that the divisor was coming down at this time. Ernie getting penalised for playing more events! But he'll shoot up more quickly if he ever rediscovers his form so there's always a silver lining.

Agree about lack of commitments for Kapalua, haven't seen commitment yet from the recently injured Dustin Johnson (Tweeting that he doesn't have a return date yet) and Stricker, and assume Phil will give it his usual miss.

Imagine Donald, McIlroy and Schwartzel will all be no-shows, but would expect Rose to play and Adam Scott often plays both Hawaii events when eligible.

Mac, you'd be right to think that, up to a point... But the reason I said it is because it's a 2-year based system and I was refering to the fact that the top 10 reflects well the best 10 players we had over the past year, only... That may not be true all the time in a 2 year system, where old points can still maintain a player that has been out of form for the last season (look no further than Tiger up until recently!), in the top 10. Hope that's clearer...

pd,
KJ Choi appears in the promotional pieces for Kapalua so would strongly expect him to be there, especially given the sponsorship.
Last year, Jonathan Byrd earned 50 owgr points; given the likelihood of only three of the top ten (Scott, Stricker?, Simpson) appearing and only six of the top twenty, I'm guessing the yield will be somewhere in the low forties (at best) this year unless there are some surprise late commitments.

According to Ms KellyT, the (28) field for Kapalua is now finalised:
Baddeley, M.Bradley, K.Bradley, Byrd, Choi, Crane, Frazar, Glover, Haas, Kirk, Laird, Molder, Na, O'Hair, Piercy, Points, Sabbatini, Simpson, Stallings, Steele, Stricker, Toms, Vegas, Wagner, Watney, B.Watson, M.Wilson, Woodland...

That should be around 38 owgr pts to the winner, one of the weakest fields they had there over the years. Still, far too many owgr points for a field of 28, if you ask me...

Looks like just another tinpot Nedbank or Chevron, high time that ranking points were seriously curtailed for such poor events, both in stature and strength of field. Shouldn't be anymore than 10 or 15 available. These tournaments are like the Johnstone Paint trophy, but with the rating if a FA Cup. Very poor.

What a poor field to kick off the PGA Tour at such a lovely venue..........still if they persist in a ridiculous "winners only" event, then they are only getting what they deserve......................

PGA Tour is starting the new season as they finished the past one. Chevron and Hyundai have a cumulated purse of over 10 million dollars and worth more than 80 owgr points to the two winners, yet only 37 players would compete in them in total... A real waste!

Just to put it into some further perspective, that sort of budget would be equal to the total purse of all last year's tournaments played on the Korean Tour ,incl. Ballentines (ironic that one of these silly events is sponsored by Hyundai), or about 5-6 times the total purse of all the tournaments played on the South American tour last year...

Happy New Year!
Here are the first few owgr predictions of this year, for week#1...
Simpson and/or Stricker could move as high as #5 with a top 3 finish.
Watney can only get to #6 with a win, while a win for KJ could mean his return into the top 10 (if Watney doesn't finish too well).

As for the new dad, Rosey, this is certainly a lucky time for him. Even though he's not playing, he may even gain a place or two this week...

I see Ernie published his near term schedule:
- Volvo Golf Champs
- Farmers
- Riviera
- WGC Match Play
- Honda
As I said before, he will need a good start in the first three to be sure he will qualify for the 4th...

And talking about schedules, some rumours (again!) that an anouncement will be made soon with regards to the Irish Open. And all of a sudden, Royal Portrush's chances to stage the event this year seem to have shoot up out of nowhere! But we shall wait and see...

Good start from Goose and Aiken at the Africa Open, with Howler doing well also... Despite a few high profile players from South Africa, looks to me like a weaker field than last year. Didn't count it yet, but would be surprised if it will reach the 20 owgr points as it did last year...

And there i was living 6 miles from Adare, happy days to spin over and watch the Irish Open. Then it goes 70 miles away to Killarney (not bad). I copuld have handled the 95 mile trip to Carton House, but im not going 300 miles to Portrush (id have to get Sterling and all!!!)..................

Yep, Carton Hse would be great for me, but as you say, Portrush could be a stretch too far. But let's see first if these rumours are true...

Press conference announced at Portrush tomorrow, Rory just returned to NI from Thailand, so something appears to be going on up there...

Let's hope for good news for all in Ireland.

pd,
I noticed that about Ernie also. Wonder if he's figured out he's not yet in Doral either?

kwinigolfer wrote:I noticed that about Ernie also. Wonder if he's figured out he's not yet in Doral either?

I wonder too... But he may be lucky in a way with his first event being played at Fancourt... he won his own Invitational there in December (with Aiken and a few others in the field) so another good performance there would set him on the right path for the year I'd hope. But he'll have to deal with a much tougher field this time around, that's for sure...

princedracula wrote:Press conference announced at Portrush tomorrow, Rory just returned to NI from Thailand, so something appears to be going on up there...

Better than average potato harvest perhaps?

Glad to see Goosen at least received the message addressed to him and Els.

Not that he will affect the owgr's but I see Rich Beem is joining Charl and Retief at the Johannesburg party next week.

AP reports that DC, Ernie, Padraig, Goose, Schwartzel, Oosthuizen, Lawrie, Karlsson all playing the Fancourt "Champions" event and implied that Casey would also be there.
Good start!

kwinigolfer wrote:AP reports that DC, Ernie, Padraig, Goose, Schwartzel, Oosthuizen, Lawrie, Karlsson all playing the Fancourt "Champions" event and implied that Casey would also be there.
Good start!

Yep, Casey said he will be there (defending champ), and earlier reports were saying that Matteo, Jimenez, Monty, Lewis, Bjorn, Colsaerts and Noren have also confirmed they will play. Should be good!

Saffa's always seem to do well early season.

Noren has been playing a lot in Florida over the "Holidays" according to Richard S.Johnson tweetage. Big year for him; with Quiros, the likelyest lad for a Ryder Cup debut perhaps?

Oh dear...! There's no end to this sillyness...
Just saw this tweet from Doug Ferguson:

Big ouch: Paul Casey dislocates right shoulder snowboarding in Vail. No title defense at Volvo champions. no golf for probably a few months

Woof,
I just read that, must be that chip I was rabbitting on about.

Very disappointing for Casey, and very disappointing for those, like me, who think he has all the tools to be a regular top ten player. Perhaps East Lake will be a reach for him after all.

On the other side of the Doug Ferguson ledger, good to read his report on Stricker's health. Feels good to go this week, then taking time off before coming back at Riviera.

I'm with you there on Casey, always thought he had what it takes to be a top ten player. The other bad news for him is that he is contemplating yet another miss on the Ryder Cup team... I see his first reaction is:

"...very frustrated...experts say I don’t need surgery... should be back hitting balls in a few weeks"

Hopefully it'll be that short and it won't turn out to be a 'turf shoulder'...

Final count gives 38 pts to the Hyundai winner and 20 pts in the end for king Louis, which means that he should definitely make it back inside the top 30 while Goose may just be lucky and make the top 50, but depends on the final result in Maui... Due to the late finish at Kapalua, I won't be able to send the new owgr update until tomorrow morning...

pd,
Everything you produce on owgr's is above and beyond.

But good to see upward mobility for Oosthuizen and Laird. Martin up to the mid thirties? He should be able to hang on to that position, divisor adjustment permitting.
Must be quite close for Goosen, Byrd, Woodland and some other for top fifty. Or not.