European rankings and points to defend.

I thought I would mention European rankings and the points to defend as it hasn't been mentioned elsewhere.

As you all probably know there is the bizarre European ranking system. It calculates how far teams get in European competitions in the last 4 seasons. It does not take into account amount of wins or opposition.

This is very important because it affects the seeding.



http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php


These were this season's HC cup rankings

Tier 1

Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff
Biarritz
Leicester

Tier 2

Saints
Clermont
Ospreys
Bath
Quins
London Irish

Tier 3
Ulster
Saracens
Gloucester
Glasgow
Scarlets
Edinburgh

Tier 4

Connacht
Treviso
Castres
Montpellier
Racing Metro
Aironi


Next season the 2007-8 efforts get chalked off. The biggest losers of points will be Munster (11), Toulouse (9),Saracens and London Irish (7), Bath,Gloucester and Cardiff with 5. Ospreys and Perpignan with 4.


This shouldn't be a problem for Munster and Toulouse who will still keep their tier 1 ranking and look well set to at least notch up some points.

Saracens will need a least a semi final to keep their 3rd tier ranking. Though they look well placed to get a home quarter which would make things much easier. Danger of falling into tier 4 territory.

London Irish are in deep deep trouble. Having lost 3 games already look basically down and out. It could potentially see them moving to Tier 4 territory with the likes of Aironi and Connacht.

Bath's failure in the HC will likely seem at least lose their tier 2 ranking.

Cardiff are well placed to defend their 5 points but any failure could see them losing their tier 1 status.

Gloucester could well drop to 4th tier if they are not careful either.

Ospreys could drop to tier 3.

Perpignan are likely to hold onto tier 2 by the skin of their teeth.



The biggest potential winners are Quins,Ulster and Edinburgh. Even Leinster!

Perpignan will not qualify - in fact they are in danger of relegation

Nor will Biarritz

Geoff how will that affect things?

No Biarritz in next year's HC will probably mean Saints become a top tier team.

Odd that Saints could actually move up a ranking after a disastrous HC so far.

Next year Leinster will only lose 2 points. So retaining the trophy would be a 9 point net gain. Noice!

Has any other team ever been on 40 points?

They ranking system really is flawed.

For example, we were in the same group as Bath last season and the seasom before and we beat them home and away each time yet they were ranked the tier above us because they did better than us 4 years ago???

I think they should use some kind of loading of the points to reflect more recent form. ie, use a multiplier for each season.

So for instance, last seasons points could be X 2, the season before X 1.5, then X1 and then half the 4th seasons points.

More complicated but it would allow for a more even playing field.

It would also mean that teams would suffer less dramatic falls like that possible for LI next year.

Bath and Osreys likly to be tier 3 and Ulster could move to tier 2.

But alot of the Tiers depends on who qualifies for the Hcup other than ranking,

i.e if Stade Francies qualified this year, London Irish would have been tier 3 not 2 and Edinburgh would have been Tier 4 not 3.

if Perpignan also qualified Quins drop to tier 3 and Scarlets to tier 4 and if Wasps also had Glasgow drops to tier 4

so a lot of which Tier you enter depends on who qualifies ahead of you. I like its too early to saw but I don't follow the top 14 so don't know.

Mickado wrote:Next year Leinster will only lose 2 points. So retaining the trophy would be a 9 point net gain. Noice!

Has any other team ever been on 40 points?

I make out that 36 would have been the highest based on the criteria (Toulouse at the from 02-03 to 05-06 season).

Red Right wrote:

Mickado wrote:Next year Leinster will only lose 2 points. So retaining the trophy would be a 9 point net gain. Noice!

Has any other team ever been on 40 points?

I make out that 36 would have been the highest based on the criteria (Toulouse at the from 02-03 to 05-06 season).

Now the small task of being only the second side to retain the cup!

Mrs P I have to agree with you,

You can't say that someone winning th ecup last year should get the same number of points as someone who won it 4 years ago, alot could have changed in those 4 years.

The current system also conspires to allow the big teams to do better in Europe.

If you have enough points to stay on a high tier you should be more likely to have weaker opposition in your group and so are more likely to get more points next year.

It favours maintaining the status quo.

But MrsP - the system that you proposed would maintain the status quo too. I agree that it's too hard to move between tiers and a change is needed but I can't see what format it would take. Biarritz are really lucky to be in that position.

But not as much surely Bikkies?

A teams more recent form would be rewarded but their past glories would only count for at 25%.

What a need is a stat nerd to redraw the table with my multipliers and see whether Ulster are at the top!!!

There's nothing bizarre about the ranking system; teams are rewarded for how far they progress in the two European tournaments over the last 3 years. Consistent performance is rewarded with ranking points, and the system's just been changed to encourage teams to place as high as possible in their groups. It also rewards qualification for the the HEC, as HEC teams get more points than their Amlin counterparts (even if they end up winning the Amlin).

A system like this couldn't realistically take in quality of opposition, there being no official European ranking system. And it takes in number of wins by reflecting position in the group stages.

The seeding system further takes into account who actually qualifies for each tournament. So Tier seeding is only determined by looking at who's actually in the tournament this year (i.e. if Bath didn't qualify for the HEC, teams below them in the ranking points would all step up one in the seedings for that year).

It seems fair to me, especially as some of the differences are pretty marginal. When you have teams like Ospreys and Quins in tier 2 and Ulster and Sarries in tier 3 you're pretty much guaranteed that the pool stages will be tough.

"as HEC teams get more points than their Amlin counterparts (even if they end up winning the Amlin)."

H-cup Qfinals = 4 point
Almin finalist = 5 points
Amlin winners = 6 points

How about this one?

http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php

MrsP wrote:They ranking system really is flawed.

For example, we were in the same group as Bath last season and the seasom before and we beat them home and away each time yet they were ranked the tier above us because they did better than us 4 years ago???

I think they should use some kind of loading of the points to reflect more recent form. ie, use a multiplier for each season.

So for instance, last seasons points could be X 2, the season before X 1.5, then X1 and then half the 4th seasons points.

More complicated but it would allow for a more even playing field.

It would also mean that teams would suffer less dramatic falls like that possible for LI next year.

Bear with me MrsP, I am in the process of working out the rankings to your system.

Red Right wrote:

Mickado wrote:Next year Leinster will only lose 2 points. So retaining the trophy would be a 9 point net gain. Noice!

Has any other team ever been on 40 points?

I make out that 36 would have been the highest based on the criteria (Toulouse at the from 02-03 to 05-06 season).

Leicester were always there, or there abouts in the early part of the '00s. Only team with back-to-backs as well which would start them off with 22 pts.

Having used MrsP's weighting of rankings system, whilst there is significant movement within the tiers, the only changes between the tiers are Saints into Tier One at the expense of Tigers who drop into Tier Two, and Ulster into Tier Two at the expense of London Irish who drop to Tier Three.

Sin é wrote:

Red Right wrote:

Mickado wrote:Next year Leinster will only lose 2 points. So retaining the trophy would be a 9 point net gain. Noice!

Has any other team ever been on 40 points?

I make out that 36 would have been the highest based on the criteria (Toulouse at the from 02-03 to 05-06 season).

Leicester were always there, or there abouts in the early part of the '00s. Only team with back-to-backs as well which would start them off with 22 pts.

Yeah, I checked them. They finished bottom of their group the season before they won, in the years following the double they were knocked out in the quarters and then finished runner up in the group the year after - giving them a max of 30 points.

Got to remember how the Amlin can change things also. Who ever wins the Amlin will pick up 6 points and qualify for next seasons HEC.

Ahh - Kingshu covered this already -

MrsP wrote:How about this one?

http://www.eurorugby.com/index.php

This is not a bad system as a general basis for form - but results like Saints v Castres can create big swings. Castres - who were ranked above Saints fielded a weakened team and got a hammering. The system only takes into account theteams ranking and not whether they field a first team or not - away trips to French teams who are out of teh competition could cause huge swings.

The current ERC ranking system does reward those teams that do not drop out once their chances of qualification are gone.

Kingshu wrote:"as HEC teams get more points than their Amlin counterparts (even if they end up winning the Amlin)."

H-cup Qfinals = 4 point
Almin finalist = 5 points
Amlin winners = 6 points

The teams that drop down from the HEC to the Amlin carry their HEC group points with them, so they get more points than the teams who started in the Amlin, and from memory an Amlin win is worth about the same as making the HEC semi. Which is fair enough, but annoying if you've started in the Amlin.

Poorfour wrote:

Kingshu wrote:"as HEC teams get more points than their Amlin counterparts (even if they end up winning the Amlin)."

H-cup Qfinals = 4 point
Almin finalist = 5 points
Amlin winners = 6 points

The teams that drop down from the HEC to the Amlin carry their HEC group points with them, so they get more points than the teams who started in the Amlin, and from memory an Amlin win is worth about the same as making the HEC semi. Which is fair enough, but annoying if you've started in the Amlin.

They only get more points than Amlin teams if they both go out in the quarters. If they get further the points are equal.

Amlin get 2 for quarter, 4 for semi, 5 for final, and 6 for win.

HC teams in the Amlin get 3 for quarter, 4 for semi, 5 for final, and 6 for win.

beshocked wrote:It does not take into account amount of wins or opposition.

I think the ranking system is fine. It does measure how many matches you have won, the more games you win the more points you get. simples.

Lose all your games you get 1. lose less games you get 2 etc.

You cannot weight the opposition because you are either rating them on the existing system, or their domestic leagues, or someone's opinion.

Makes no sense. Current system is simple and fair. Any longer than 4 years would not be fair. Any shorter would be too little to base it on.

Poorfour wrote:The teams that drop down from the HEC to the Amlin carry their HEC group points with them, so they get more points than the teams who started in the Amlin, and from memory an Amlin win is worth about the same as making the HEC semi. Which is fair enough, but annoying if you've started in the Amlin.

Obviously having sides able to drop down to the Amlin keeps the Heinken pools serious for longer (and adds a bit more gloss to the Amlin), but I'm really no fan of a big team being able to enter the Amlin at this stage and then beat a side who have already put in the hard work in a second tier competition.

Having said that I can see why it's structured as it is.

SafeAsMilk wrote:

Poorfour wrote:The teams that drop down from the HEC to the Amlin carry their HEC group points with them, so they get more points than the teams who started in the Amlin, and from memory an Amlin win is worth about the same as making the HEC semi. Which is fair enough, but annoying if you've started in the Amlin.

Obviously having sides able to drop down to the Amlin keeps the Heinken pools serious for longer (and adds a bit more gloss to the Amlin), but I'm really no fan of a big team being able to enter the Amlin at this stage and then beat a side who have already put in the hard work in a second tier competition.

Having said that I can see why it's structured as it is.

Having followed Quins through the later stages of the Amlin last season, I'm all in favour of it. I can remember news reports along the lines of "The winner of this year's Amlin isn't even in the competition yet" and it was great for the competition that that wasn't the case. There are some big teams in the Amlin, too, and both the teams and the tournament benefit from having some better teams in it in the later stages.

poorfour,

Yeah, I wasn't saying there aren't any big sides in the Amlin, just that I'm not sure about the "fairness" of the safety net for teams dropping down into it.

Totally agree that Quins were great in the tournament last season and they've really used that as a springboard and kicked on.

The unfair part IMO is that an Amlin finalist or winner will acrue more points than a team that has reached the QF of the HC and then been beaten as was the case the year Cardiff Blues won it. They did worse by not being able to qualify for the HC QF yet accrued more points than a team who did qualify and was then beaten.

wayne wrote:The unfair part IMO is that an Amlin finalist or winner will acrue more points than a team that has reached the QF of the HC and then been beaten as was the case the year Cardiff Blues won it. They did worse by not being able to qualify for the HC QF yet accrued more points than a team who did qualify and was then beaten.

I think that is totally fair. to get to an Amlin final you will have to beat at least one of the big French or English clubs, And go away in the QF.

Take 2 teams both come 2nd in their HC pool. The 1st goes to an away QF v one of the top 2 seeds in the HC. The 2nd goes to an away QF v an Amlin pool topper.

In most cases the HC teams will lose their QF. The last time I can remember a 7th or 8th place team winning their QF was Sarries 5 years ago.

Why should a team that loses a game get more points than one that wins 2, even against slightly inferior opposition?

Funny that the four teams most likely to benefit this season have good chances to qualify for the quarter finals - Ulster,Edinburgh,Quins and Leinster.

Obviously Leinster are already there. They look very comfortable too.


Jennifer Mcladyboy I think you are mistaken in regards to Saracens. Sarries were the 1st placed team when they won their HC home quarter vs Ospreys.


Bath,London Irish and Gloucester look likely to suffer. Ospreys will too if they don't qualify for the Amlin.

If Perpignan lose to Exeter their european ranking will slump further.

I have done the maths Ulster will be a 2nd seed next year

Geoff what do they need to get that? My team Saracens need a semi final spot just to retain their 3rd seed

Can you be sure until you know which teams will qualify from the Jeff and Top14?

We will definately move up and we know Bath and LI will take considerable hits but the Top14 could throw up a few surprises, no?

wayne wrote:The unfair part IMO is that an Amlin finalist or winner will acrue more points than a team that has reached the QF of the HC and then been beaten as was the case the year Cardiff Blues won it. They did worse by not being able to qualify for the HC QF yet accrued more points than a team who did qualify and was then beaten.

But we had to play the QF & SF away and then the final was in Toulon's backyard. I think we more than earned those points

beshocked wrote:

Jennifer Mcladyboy I think you are mistaken in regards to Saracens. Sarries were the 1st placed team when they won their HC home quarter vs Ospreys.

.

Sorry BS I was thinking of Northampton winning away in Biarritz, but wrote Sarries for some bizarre reason.

Gcblues I dislike the drop down into the Amlin because it rewards sides who have failed to qualify for the HC cup quarter finals by giving them a nice chance at extra ranking points.

Cardiff did well to win the competition but you get almost as many points for winning the Amlin than a HC semi spot.

Also it's unfair on the sides in the Amlin who have worked hard in that competition.

True Mrsp. Looks unlikely Biarritz will qualify as an example.

beshocked wrote:Geoff what do they need to get that? My team Saracens need a semi final spot just to retain their 3rd seed

That's because Sarries were in a semi 4 years ago and Ulster finished bottom of their pool. So Ulster only lose 1 point but Sarries lose 7.

Gives Ulster a 6 point advantage before you start looking at this years points.

With a good run Ulster could hit the top tier. Almost guaranteed 2nd seeds. At worst they will be in the Amlin. (This year) Which gives them an option of extra points. Win at the weekend and they will have a home qf in the HC

Anyway.... Not one to brag.... But Leinster will be No 1 ranked team in Europe next year, EVEN IF they lose ALL their remaining games this season, and no matter who wins the HC.

And believe me we have no intentions of losing ANY matches for a while yet.

Ulster are currently on 10 points are certain to get to 12 points whatever happens as the year we lose was a poor one (we were bottom of the group).

The guarantees us to go above Irish and Bath - takes us to 14.
There is no way Wasps will qualify - takes us to 13
Perpignan and Biarritz will not qualify - takes us to 11
Not sure if Stade will qualify
Also very touch and go between us and Ospreys

However you post has cast doubt in my mind - by my calculation you need to reach the final to have any chance of being a 2nd seed. You were SF's 4 years ago and that drops of the calcualtion.
Also Toulon could get there if they made the Amlin final

So basically Ulster will make up if they win no more games, providing both Saracens and Toulon dont make a final.
Saracens have to make the HC final to stand a good chance.

beshocked wrote:
True Mrsp. Looks unlikely Biarritz will qualify as an example.

Biarritz probably out, and Perpignan probably stay out. But I reckon Stade Francais will come back in to take their place, so status quo in the 1st and 2nd tier French teams.

Bath Wasps and LI could be out. Leicester will drop to 2nd tier. Quins will surge up the rankings too. 2nd seeds at least.

Yes jennifer mcladyboy. I think you misunderstood my post. Very true about Ulster though.

Thanks geoff. Easier said than done but we are at least Saracens are well placed for a HC quarter final.

Ulster are sitting quite nicely though. It's simple - beat Clermont - home quarter in the HC. Pick up a losing bonus point - likely best runners up. Lose = Amlin or hope results go your way.

Ospreys look likely to drop points.

beshocked,

I think a lbp could see us unlikely to get one of the best runners up spots.

It would be strange to finish equal top of our group and still be out but it could happen.

And Tigers will only drop one point for next year so they will probably stay in the top tier, no?

MrsP I thought Tigers would lose 2 points. They cannot qualify for the Amlin.

A bit early to write Perpignan off - they're only 9 points below 6th place in T14 with 11 games still to play. Biarritz are 13 points in arrears.

Perpignan will need to overcome Exeter at Sandy Park this weekend to qualify for Amlin QF and mitigate their loss of 4 ranking points. Potential ranking points 11-17.

If Biarritz do make up the deficit in T14, they'll be on at least 19 ranking points.

Toulon may well come into HC and will gain ranking points (losing none and with a virtually guaranteed Amlin QF). Potential ranking points 10-16

Similarly, Stade Francais are well set for HC next year, and only need a home LBP over Worcester to earn a ranking point and possibly more, though they'll be losing 3. Potential ranking points 13-19.

On the flip side, if clubs like Agen, Castres, Racing and Montpellier, who are all currently in contention, finish in the top 6 (or 7), their ranking points are so low that they'll be Tier 4, perhaps 3 at best.

Beshocked,

Tigers will lose the 3 point they earned in the 2007/8 season and will most likely end as 3rd place in pool 4 this season giving them 2 back.

net loss = 1

Thet actually could still make the Amlin if we beat ASM by more than 7 points.

beshocked wrote:MrsP I thought Tigers would lose 2 points. They cannot qualify for the Amlin.

If Ulster deny Clermont a bonus point and Leicester get 5 against Aironi then Leicester will be on 17 points and Clermont on 16 points and Leicester will be in the Amlin

I did not realize Perpignan had picked up. I do agree that if both they and Biarritz made the top 6 then Ulster would not be a 2nd seed on their current point score.

Poorfour wrote:There's nothing bizarre about the ranking system.

Leinster and Toulouse have an equal number of ranking points. 31 each. If they met in this years final and Toulouse won to become champions, the result would be Leinster moving further ahead of Toulouse in the rankings, because Toulouse did much better than Leinster in 2008!

Just seen the table and by the same token neither Toulon or Stade are secure by any yardstick. Being ony 4 and 3 points above 7th place respectively.

What I can say is Ulster move to 13th/14th above Bath and Irish and probably Ospreys. The only non French team that can go past them is Saracens and they have to make the final. Wasps don't matter.

So it comes down to which French team qualify - as things stand we would make it. Some could improve but others could drop out.

geoff998rugby wrote:I did not realize Perpignan had picked up. I do agree that if both they and Biarritz made the top 6 then Ulster would not be a 2nd seed on their current point score.

They haven't really, they're still in freefall, it's just that T14 is pretty close apart from the top 2. Perp maybe only 9 points below HC qualification, but they're only 4 points ahead of relegation zone (and Biarritz are level with it)..