Aviva Premiership - Round 12 Preview

Sorry Yappysnap, but I really wanted to start discussing this weekend’s games.

Currently the table looks like:

1 Harlequins………..43
2 Saracens …………..38
3 London Irish……..29
4 Sale…………………..28
5 Leicester…………..28
6 Northampton……27
7 Gloucester………..26
8 Exeter……………….26
9 Wasps……………….20
10 Bath………………….19
11 Worcester………..17
12 Newcastle………..11

With the following fixtures this weekend:

Saturday, 31 December 2011
Exeter v Harlequins, 15:45
Quins will be looking to put the defeat to Sarries behind them and secure a hard to get win at Sandy Park. After losing at home to Toulouse they showed excellent fighting spirit to win the return leg. With such a short rest, can they do so again? As I expect Conor O’Shea to look to rest a few of his squad with some huge matches to come in January I suspect we may see Exeter sneak the win.
Exeter by 6

Newcastle v Northampton, 14:00
Falcons have to start winning their home matches to secure the points needed to stay up. However with Saints now out of Europe expect a full strength team to start the match.
Saints by >7


Sunday, 1 January 2012
Bath v London Irish, 13:30
Bath are in terrible form, while London Irish are inconsistent (suspensions and injuries having an effect?). Difficult to predict, but Bath have to put in a performance soon.
Bath by 5

Leicester v Sale, 15:30
Tigers with a busy month coming up will continue to rotate key players. The second half performance at Sale sparked the season and has seen them lose only in Montferrand since the return of the WC stars. Tigers should have too much for Sale, perhaps with a TBP
Tigers by >7

Saracens v Gloucester, 15:00
Should Quins falter in Devon, Saracens could pull level at the top of the table if they secure a TBP. Sarries should dominate up front but expect them to again play no risk rugby as they seek to avoid giving a talented Glaws backline the space to run in.
Sarries by >7


Wasps v Worcester, 15:00
Wasps are beset by injuries, but if they can counter the Worcester rush defence and give flying wingers Wade and Varndell any space they could score plenty of tries. With Robinson’s goal kicking, they need to. Opportunities could abound for Simpson to take advantage of any Warriors inattention around the breakdown.
Wasps with a TBP

If the matches pan out like this the table would be:

Quins 44
Sarries 42
Tigers 33
Saints 31
LI 30
Exeter 30
Sale 28
Gloucester 26
Wasps 25
Bath 23
Worcester 17
Falcons 11

But things are so tight, and the predictions game so fraught with danger

Cheers Tiger

I've been a bit busy this week so it's much appreciated!

Think you may be correct in all of the games there.

Would love to see Quins win but as you say we need to rest some players; but then if we rest some key players, the replacements aren't shabby.

Guys like Casson, Smith, Williams in the backs and Clegg at 10, I expect Care will still play.

Forwards is tougher but Lambert, Gray (how good was he against Saracens? Has to be in the England mix) Fairbrother is a very solid frontrow, might have been better then the starting front row against saracens.

Only other game I hope you're wrong with is Glos, if they bring their Heiny form then please could they sneak it?!

Also perhaps a try bp for Tigers as they carry on their Waspsesg rise to power?

I am going Chiefs, Falcons, Irish, Tiggers, Sarries and Warriors.

TBP for the Tiggers but not for anyone else, and LBP's for Quins, Saints, Bath and Wasps.

COME ON YOU IRISH!!!!

Going for the Falcons is a big call. If Saints were still in Europe I would have been inclined to agree as they would have been resting players perhaps - but with a full strength line-up I just feel they are too strong.

It is a big call, but I think it's that period of games now where Falcons know they have to get something and will be busting a gut in this one for the points.

Interesting that 6 teams are bunched up below Quins and Saracens. All in the mix for the playoffs and also for Heineken Cup qualification. Below them, its hard to see the bottom 4 battling for any honours, and still see Newcastle as dropping down (shock, eh?)

Exeter v Harlequins: Exeter battling, Exeter home. Will Exeter play Budgen? Quins tired. Exeter by 3.

Newcastle v Northampton: Newcastle bad. Saints good. Nuff said. Saints by 20.

Bath v London Irish: Bath in freefall (WTF, eh?), Bath's last chance. Bath crowd not happy. LI up and down.
LI by 3.

Leicester v Sale: Leicester improving, but not smooth. Sale peaked. Leicester home. Leicester by 14

Saracens v Gloucester: Great match. Which Gloucester shows up, the good one or the sloppy one? Sloppy teams don't beat Saracens. Sarries by 3.

Wasps v Worcester: Wasps have great pedigree. Pedigree is in the distant past. Wasps almost done. Worcester by 7.

The good doctor, I hope you are right Exe set themselves a goal of bettering themselves in every game relative to the equivalent last season. So far, Saints away aside, we've done that, but I fear that repeating our home win against Quins may be a stretch too far. We ran them close away earlier on, but we're carrying quite a few injuries at the moment and I fear we might struggle

Interesting round of games this week - like LT I can see the four teams who I expect to make the play off's ending the week in the top four positions in the table (Quins, Saracens, Tigers, Saints).

Exeter v Quins. Quins did really well to pull themselves up after the Toulouse home game and win 5 days later in France. I don't think they will manage the same again - Exeter is a tricky place to win away at the best of times. Home win.

Newcastle v Saints. Falcons have to start winning at home but think Saints will be too strong. Weather could be a factor. Away win, Saints BP.

Bath v Irish. Agree Bath are in total freefall and that Irish are the most inconsistent team out there at the moment. Close but thinking away win.

Tigers v Sale. Tigers coming into some form and should be too strong for Sale. Home win, Tigers BP.

Sarries v Cherries. Sarries too strong for just about anyone at the moment. Home win, Sarries BP.

Wasps v Warriors. 2 teams who will be nearer the bottom of the table than the top come May. Close call, Wasps to just shade it. Home win.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:The good doctor, I hope you are right

Hi As,
I see the match two ways which both point to a home win. First, I believe Quins have been holding themselves together by their fingernails. The effort to maintain their perfect record has been huge. I think they suffer a short lull before regaining form. Second, Exe are real grinders, and work like dogs for every score. Also make their opposition work like dogs. Exactly the type of team which can take advantage of Quins right now, especially at home.

After saying that, I need your lads to make my prediction look good.

It will be tough for Quins to go to Sandy Park on such a short turnaround - but bear in mind that Exeter have had a similarly short turnaround and after two rounds of Toulouse and one of Sarries, Exeter are a slightly easier proposition, even at home.

It's not going to be easy by any stretch, but the Quins mindset will be to pick themselves up after two defeats in their last three games and not let the season go off the rails. I'm almost inclined to predict a draw.

Otherwise, I'm inclined to agree with doctor_grey, except that Sarries will beat Gloucester by a bit, but not by enough for the try bp.

What we are going to see over the next few weeks is whether Quins are anywhere near as good as they have been pumped up to be by fans and media. We are now half way through the season and Quins were the best English club - but Conor O'Shea knows thatthat is meaningless without trophies at the end of the season.

I still expect Sarries to top the table after round 22 - and after that who knows.

LT

Agree that Sarries will top the table, with Quins and Tigers in 2nd/3rd places, and between Saints, Glaws and Irish for the final play off spot.

Chiefs and Sale in 7th/8th, Bath 9th, Wasps 10th, Worcester 11th.......

Bye Bye Falcons.

I think 3rd and 4th are still well up for grabs. A good run in January and tigers are well set, but who knows what will happen in Feb/March.

Ozzy3213 wrote:LT

Agree that Sarries will top the table, with Quins and Tigers in 2nd/3rd places, and between Saints, Glaws and Irish for the final play off spot.

Chiefs and Sale in 7th/8th, Bath 9th, Wasps 10th, Worcester 11th.......

Bye Bye Falcons.

Agree with that, Pete, altho might drop Irish down a tier

London Irish team to face Bath:

15. Delon Armitage*; 14. Topsy Ojo*; 13. Joe Ansbro*; 12. Shontayne Hape*; 11. Tom Homer; 10. Steven Shingler; 9. Darren Allinson; 1. Alex Corbisiero*; 2. James Buckland; 3. Paulica Ion*; 4. Nick Kennedy*; 5. Bryn Evans*; 6. Declan Danaher (Captain); 7. Jamie Gibson; 8. Richard Thorpe

Replacements: 16. David Paice*; 17. Clarke Dermody*; 18. Max Lahiff; 19. Matt Garvey; 20. Alex Gray; 21. Adam Thompstone; 22. Adrian Jarvis; 23. Paul Hodgson*


Backline lloks good, although I feel we are missing a couple of ball carriers in the pack. Must win game for us really if we want to stay in contention for a play off spot.

Asbo, you might be right, the next 2 games will tell us a lot about where London Irish really sit in the grand scheme of things.

Quins team for Exeter:
15 MIKE BROWN 14 TOM WILLIAMS 13 MATT HOPPER 12 JORDAN TURNER HALL 11 UGO MONYE 10 RORY CLEGG 9 DANNY CARE 1 JOE MARLER 2 JOE GRAY 3 TIM FAIRBROTHER 4 TOMAS VALLEJOS 5 GEORGE ROBSON 6 CHRIS ROBSHAW © 7 LUKE WALLACE 8 TOM GUEST

16 CHRIS BROOKER "FR" 17 MARK LAMBERT "FR" 18 JAMES JOHNSTON "FR" 19 PETE BROWNE 20 CHRIS YORK 21 RICHARD BOLT 22 BEN URDAPILLETA 23 SAM SMITH

That's a very strong team to take on exeter with. In the forwards Fairbrother should lock down the scrum a bit more securely then Johnston of late and give Marler a fighting chance. It's great to see youngster Wallace starting and tbh that looks like possibly our best backrow if they all click. Also great to welcome back Tom Guest, there'll be a lot of people watching his performance! Watch out for York on the bench as a possible Saxons bolter.

In the backs Williams starting is the right call, he's had a really good impact in the last two matches. I expect Clegg will get a good 70 mins as long as he goes well and much like the other bench players that have been brought in to the starting team I expect him to have a very good game another one to watch.

yappysnap wrote:Quins team for Exeter:
15 MIKE BROWN 14 TOM WILLIAMS 13 MATT HOPPER 12 JORDAN TURNER HALL 11 UGO MONYE 10 RORY CLEGG 9 DANNY CARE 1 JOE MARLER 2 JOE GRAY 3 TIM FAIRBROTHER 4 TOMAS VALLEJOS 5 GEORGE ROBSON 6 CHRIS ROBSHAW © 7 LUKE WALLACE 8 TOM GUEST

16 CHRIS BROOKER "FR" 17 MARK LAMBERT "FR" 18 JAMES JOHNSTON "FR" 19 PETE BROWNE 20 CHRIS YORK 21 RICHARD BOLT 22 BEN URDAPILLETA 23 SAM SMITH

That's a very strong team to take on exeter with. In the forwards Fairbrother should lock down the scrum a bit more securely then Johnston of late and give Marler a fighting chance. It's great to see youngster Wallace starting and tbh that looks like possibly our best backrow if they all click. Also great to welcome back Tom Guest, there'll be a lot of people watching his performance! Watch out for York on the bench as a possible Saxons bolter.

In the backs Williams starting is the right call, he's had a really good impact in the last two matches. I expect Clegg will come on early in the second half to rest Evans as well.

Umm.......

Also Robshaw is going to be knackered out. If he is picked in the EPS then the rest agreements mean you will not see much of him for the rest of the season!!

Tigers team for Sunday:

Leicester Tigers (v Sale Sharks, Welford Road, Sunday 3.30pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c) 14 Horacio Agulla 13 Matt Smith 12 Billy Twelvetrees 11 Alesana Tuilagi 10 Toby Flood 9 Ben Youngs
1 Martin Castrogiovanni 2 Rob Hawkins 3 Dan Cole 4 Ed Slater 5 Graham Kitchener 6 Steve Mafi 7 Julian Salvi 8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 George Chuter 17 Boris Stankovich 18 Logoviii Mulipola 19 Ben Woods 20 Tom Croft 21 Micky Young 22 Jeremy Staunton 23 Scott Hamilton

Murphy, Alessana, Salvi rotate back in.
Croft, Chuter rested.
Deacon and Manu injured.

LondonTiger wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Quins team for Exeter:
15 MIKE BROWN 14 TOM WILLIAMS 13 MATT HOPPER 12 JORDAN TURNER HALL 11 UGO MONYE 10 RORY CLEGG 9 DANNY CARE 1 JOE MARLER 2 JOE GRAY 3 TIM FAIRBROTHER 4 TOMAS VALLEJOS 5 GEORGE ROBSON 6 CHRIS ROBSHAW © 7 LUKE WALLACE 8 TOM GUEST

16 CHRIS BROOKER "FR" 17 MARK LAMBERT "FR" 18 JAMES JOHNSTON "FR" 19 PETE BROWNE 20 CHRIS YORK 21 RICHARD BOLT 22 BEN URDAPILLETA 23 SAM SMITH

That's a very strong team to take on exeter with. In the forwards Fairbrother should lock down the scrum a bit more securely then Johnston of late and give Marler a fighting chance. It's great to see youngster Wallace starting and tbh that looks like possibly our best backrow if they all click. Also great to welcome back Tom Guest, there'll be a lot of people watching his performance! Watch out for York on the bench as a possible Saxons bolter.

In the backs Williams starting is the right call, he's had a really good impact in the last two matches. I expect Clegg will come on early in the second half to rest Evans as well.

Umm.......

Also Robshaw is going to be knackered out. If he is picked in the EPS then the rest agreements mean you will not see much of him for the rest of the season!!

That could be a good thing though! We have a fair few backrow players coming through and Chris does play a huge amount, maybe a bit more rest would be beneficial considering his style of play. I really wouldn't be worried about it, with Guest and Skinner both experienced leaders and players and plenty of other options kicking around.

What did you mean by Clegg coming on in the second half though?

Exeter team to face Quins at SP tomorrow afternoon:

15 Luke Arscott
14 Gonzalo Camacho
13 Nic Sestaret
12 Jason Shoemark
11 Matt Jess
10 Ignacio Mieres
9 Haydn Thomas
1 Brett Sturgess
2 Neil Clark
3 John Andress
4 Tom Hayes (capt)
5 Aly Muldowney
6 Richard Baxter
7 James Scaysbrook
8 James Phillips

16 Simon Alcott
17 Hoani Tui
18 Craig Mitchell
19 Chris Bentley
20 Tom Johnson
21 Kevin Barrett
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Josh Tatupu

Pretty much full strength given injuries to Short, Hanks, Whitehead, White and Naqelevuki, with Mitchell given a well-deserved rest

The injuries to Manu, Skivington and Deacon are worrying for Tigers. Hoping Slater and Kitchener both have blinders this weekend and step up otherwise we'll be in trouble come the trip to Ravenhill. Need Smith and Twelvetrees to stay injury free as well as the centre positions are looking pretty light again. Should have enough to over come Wasps though.

Good to see 12T's starting, now that we've all called for him he'll probably have a shocker!

Given the shortage of decent English 8s Quins really should share them around a bit, currently having 4 credible 8s on their books: Easter, Guest, York, Trayfoot. I can't see that can last indefinitely.

Having said that, I think the England bolter is on the other team. For me Phillips is a real contender for the starting position in the 6 Nations.

I wonder if Clegg can remember how to play rugby? Whilst it is obvious that Quins want to make the most of having Evans, it is surely time for Clegg to find a club who can offer him more game time. Perhaps Sale, where he can be reunited with Miller?

Big game for Newcastle. I'm not yet convinced they are doomed, but they need a couple of wins in the next few games if they are to escape. Worcester and Wasps are the only other sides with any cause for concern.

Glaws
Olly Morgan; Jonny May, Henry Trinder, Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu, James Simpson-Daniel; Freddie Burns, Rory Lawson; Nick Wood, Scott Lawson, Rupert Harden; Peter Buxton, Jim Hamilton; Alasdair Strokosch, Akapusi Qera, Luke Narraway (capt)

Replacements:

Matias Cortese, Dan Murphy, Dario Chistolini, Brett Deacon, Matt Cox, Dave Lewis, Ryan Mills, Charlie Sharples

and Sarries
15 Alex Goode
14 Chris Wyles
13 Adam Powell
12 Brad Barritt
11 James Short
10 Charlie Hodgson
9 Peter Stringer
1 Rhys Gill
2 Jamie George
3 Matt Stevens
4 Steve Borthwick (c)
5 Mouritz Botha
6 Kelly Brown
7 Andy Saull
8 Jackson Wray

16 Schalk Brits
17 John Smit
18 Carlos Nieto
19 George Kruis
20 Justin Melck
21 Ben Spencer
22 Owen Farrell
23 Duncan Taylor

I was hugely impressed by Sarries against Quins, so Glaws will be deinite underdogs. But Sarries have made a few changes, whereas Glaws have made just 1 change on the bench. Bravado aside, I'd be happy with a LBP.

DaveM wrote:Given the shortage of decent English 8s Quins really should share them around a bit, currently having 4 credible 8s on their books: Easter, Guest, York, Trayfoot. I can't see that can last indefinitely.

Having said that, I think the England bolter is on the other team. For me Phillips is a real contender for the starting position in the 6 Nations.

I wonder if Clegg can remember how to play rugby? Whilst it is obvious that Quins want to make the most of having Evans, it is surely time for Clegg to find a club who can offer him more game time. Perhaps Sale, where he can be reunited with Miller?

Big game for Newcastle. I'm not yet convinced they are doomed, but they need a couple of wins in the next few games if they are to escape. Worcester and Wasps are the only other sides with any cause for concern.

I'd say it's probably a testament to Easter and the academy team that we have them but yes one of York or Trayfoot will probably go, Guest is the nailed on siccessor to Easter and had almost ousted him before injury anyway. I think Tom and Chris have both signed new contracts so we may have them for a while yet.

As to Clegg, he won't be leaving any time soon. He is a guaranteed second choice for a top London club, has a flat share with a couple of the other lads fron the squad and is only behind the best 10 in the NH. I imagine he's quite happy to bide his time and we'll see today how the lessons are going. A good game and he'll probably come off the bench earlier next time.

What is worrying is centres for us. Lowe, Hopper, Casson, JTH, Smith ( I assume we still have him) and Urdipella will all want to be on the bench or starting so we could see one of those leave as most on that list would make other teams 23's. Smith if we still have him must be off soon.

yappysnap wrote:As to Clegg, he won't be leaving any time soon. He is a guaranteed second choice for a top London club, has a flat share with a couple of the other lads fron the squad and is only behind the best 10 in the NH.

He's behind Dan Parks????

Sorry for that. Don't know what came over me.

doctor_grey wrote:Sorry for that. Don't know what came over me.

Dan Parks by the sounds of it...

Cumbrian wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:Sorry for that. Don't know what came over me.

Dan Parks by the sounds of it...

The imagery ... so, so horrible

well played Exeter! It was bloody close there.

Your coach sounds a gent too

Have a good new year ASBO and I hope you boys keep winning.

Good to see 12T's starting, now that we've all called for him he'll probably have a shocker!

He had a decent game against Wuss last week. His passing was pure class and really gave the backs extra width. His tackling was solid and his work rate every impressive but I'd have liked to see him get in the face of the opposition and for'e the issue a little more, like Barritt does so well. His carrying was a bit routine, need to see more flair from him in that department.

Take out Cleggs kicking from the t and that has to have been one of the best round the field fly half performances going from any of the English youngsters.

I don't know what was going on but I can't see him missing so many away at Saints.

Good game from Guest for the first 40, tired after that and didn't appear around the park as much. Wallace had another very good game, did really well slowing down ball legally when we were under pressure.

Hopper has to have been one of the best signings this season. I'm seriously wondering how we're going to fit Lowe in as Mat just seems taylored for that 13 spot outside JTH.

DaveM wrote:Given the shortage of decent English 8s Quins really should share them around a bit, currently having 4 credible 8s on their books: Easter, Guest, York, Trayfoot. I can't see that can last indefinitely.

Having said that, I think the England bolter is on the other team. For me Phillips is a real contender for the starting position in the 6 Nations.

I wonder if Clegg can remember how to play rugby? Whilst it is obvious that Quins want to make the most of having Evans, it is surely time for Clegg to find a club who can offer him more game time. Perhaps Sale, where he can be reunited with Miller?

Big game for Newcastle. I'm not yet convinced they are doomed, but they need a couple of wins in the next few games if they are to escape. Worcester and Wasps are the only other sides with any cause for concern.

Just how good is this Phillips. He looks a unit but i have no idea other than that. We desperately need a quality 8 but is there not a good reason he hasn't played at a higher level before the age of 24?

Some players mature later. I watched Phillips live on Tuesday when we played the Chiefs, and most Irish fans I spoke to felt he was the Chiefs best player by a distance and should have got MOTM even in defeat.

Excellent carrier and definitely worth a look at in the Saxons.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Some players mature later. I watched Phillips live on Tuesday when we played the Chiefs, and most Irish fans I spoke to felt he was the Chiefs best player by a distance and should have got MOTM even in defeat.

Excellent carrier and definitely worth a look at in the Saxons.

Cool, cheers Ozzy. Do you think your young lad (Sisi is it?) will step up soon or is he way off? And how has Gray gone?

Gray has been injured but looks a very intelligent player, needs to bulk up a little though.

Sisi is a unit and still a kid, he's been around the first team and is standby for today if anyone gets injured in the warm-up.

Good pre match chat on espn pre bath vs Irish match on ESPN.

yappysnap wrote:well played Exeter! It was bloody close there.

Your coach sounds a gent too

Have a good new year ASBO and I hope you boys keep winning.

Good win for your lads, yappy

Difficult to see beyond Sarries, Quins, Saints and Tigers for the top 4 now, although 6 Nations may have some effect.

Then I think it's Glaws, Irish, Sharks, Chiefs and Bath competing for 2 Heineken Cup spots, with Gloucester (unless their crop of talented youngster get the 6 Nations call) and strangely Bath as the favourites to get those 2 spots.

At the bottom end Wasps are looking lucky that Newcastle are so poor, as they are well into relegation form having been nilled at home by the team that was in 11th place.

Looking at the fixtures during the 6Ns, Tigers could lose at least 3 games in Feb/March - which would put a major dampener on playoff hopes. We blew the chances for an extra point yesterday - so really need to secure all 5 against Wasps, who do not leak tries usually.

It will be interesting to see the EPS squad on teh 11th.

Hhmm looking at the table now it could finish something like this:

Harlequins
Saracens
Leicester
Northampton
Gloucester
Exeter
London Irish
Sale
Bath
Wasps
Worcester
Newcastle

But honestly bar the top two and bottom club any of those could change easily.

I think Saracens will top the table with Quins in second, not that it matters much as they will both get home semis.

I think that Saints will do better than tigers in the second half of the season - so Tigers to finish 4th.

If Tigers did finish 4th i think i'd prefer second place as that would give us a home semi v Saints.

As a Saints fan would much prefer a home semi but if not then would take an away game with Quins to avoid Saracens or Leicester (seems we both want to avoid them until the final yappysnap ). As LT states the 6N traditionally hit both the Tigers and Saints but this year could (and should) be different with both Sarries and Quins being heavily impacted as well.

Will also be interesting what affect the HC has on things. In the last few years Saracens have been able to concentrate solely on the league. They have the squad to cope with the later rounds as well as the prem but playing in a lot of very high pressure games does take it's toll eventually as the Saints know all too well. Perhaps there is a silver lining to missing out on the later stages this season

I would definitely want the home semi. But I don't care whom Saints play because they will have to beat a very good team to get to the final anyway. I actually think Saints match up well with Saracens.

I wonder where Saracens will play their presumed home semi. Think they might go for a larger venue?

I agree with your point about Saracens and the Heineken Cup this season. In recent years I'm not sure they really put much effort into Europe, really only concentrating on th Premeirship. And quite successfully, it has to be said. Now, they are after the same double that Saints almost achieved last season. This becomes a huge number of high pressure matches week after week. That is a huge grind. Let's see how they perform, at least until they lose to Saints at Twickenham on May 26.

As a tigers fan I'd back us to beat Quins and possibly Saints away from home. Can't see us beating Sarries in current form though. We just aren't clinical enough.