Aviva Premiership - Round 12 Preview

First topic message reminder :

Sorry Yappysnap, but I really wanted to start discussing this weekend’s games.

Currently the table looks like:

1 Harlequins………..43
2 Saracens …………..38
3 London Irish……..29
4 Sale…………………..28
5 Leicester…………..28
6 Northampton……27
7 Gloucester………..26
8 Exeter……………….26
9 Wasps……………….20
10 Bath………………….19
11 Worcester………..17
12 Newcastle………..11

With the following fixtures this weekend:

Saturday, 31 December 2011
Exeter v Harlequins, 15:45
Quins will be looking to put the defeat to Sarries behind them and secure a hard to get win at Sandy Park. After losing at home to Toulouse they showed excellent fighting spirit to win the return leg. With such a short rest, can they do so again? As I expect Conor O’Shea to look to rest a few of his squad with some huge matches to come in January I suspect we may see Exeter sneak the win.
Exeter by 6

Newcastle v Northampton, 14:00
Falcons have to start winning their home matches to secure the points needed to stay up. However with Saints now out of Europe expect a full strength team to start the match.
Saints by >7


Sunday, 1 January 2012
Bath v London Irish, 13:30
Bath are in terrible form, while London Irish are inconsistent (suspensions and injuries having an effect?). Difficult to predict, but Bath have to put in a performance soon.
Bath by 5

Leicester v Sale, 15:30
Tigers with a busy month coming up will continue to rotate key players. The second half performance at Sale sparked the season and has seen them lose only in Montferrand since the return of the WC stars. Tigers should have too much for Sale, perhaps with a TBP
Tigers by >7

Saracens v Gloucester, 15:00
Should Quins falter in Devon, Saracens could pull level at the top of the table if they secure a TBP. Sarries should dominate up front but expect them to again play no risk rugby as they seek to avoid giving a talented Glaws backline the space to run in.
Sarries by >7


Wasps v Worcester, 15:00
Wasps are beset by injuries, but if they can counter the Worcester rush defence and give flying wingers Wade and Varndell any space they could score plenty of tries. With Robinson’s goal kicking, they need to. Opportunities could abound for Simpson to take advantage of any Warriors inattention around the breakdown.
Wasps with a TBP

If the matches pan out like this the table would be:

Quins 44
Sarries 42
Tigers 33
Saints 31
LI 30
Exeter 30
Sale 28
Gloucester 26
Wasps 25
Bath 23
Worcester 17
Falcons 11

But things are so tight, and the predictions game so fraught with danger

I don't think Sarries, playing as they are, will be able to retain the crown. Once the pitches firm up there are some good sides who will move the ball, and at present I can't see how Sarries will out-score all of them when the crunch comes.

It's shaping up to be an exciting end to the season, and 6 Nations call-ups may yet decide who finishes 3rd and 4th. In terms of relegation I suspect Newcastle are now a better side than Wasps, but doubt they can make up the gap. From a geographical spread point of view it would be a shame to see Newcastle go down now they have an owner with ambition, but the main reason to not want to see Wasps go down is their academy. They are supposed to have some serious talent working its way through in the 14-16 age-group, but would Wasps continue with it if they went down? Leeds did, but it would be very bad news if the Wasps structures were lost.

Pete, do you know when JJ and Yarde will be fit?

Yappysnap, Clegg may be second choice at a London club, but he could be first choice at a number of clubs next season and pushing really hard for an EPS slot. Quins may have a battle holding onto him when Evans will obviously be first choice. I've always thought Lowe was slightly over-rated, and I just think that Hopper is the better player and should retain his place. Unfortunately I'd still be surprised if Smith plays again - hasn't he just had another operation?

Sarries probably have more ability than any other AP side to play hard ground, running rugby. They have good strike runners throughout the team, excellent back row players who can run, tackle and fetch till teh cows come home and a very good lineout to win good attacking ball. In broken field play they are very dangerous, with some very clever "obstruction" plays.

They just don't like to take the risks that chasing tries entails right now. This is still, perhaps, a consequence of losing the 2010 final to Tigers.

For me Sarries are more likely Title winners over Quins as they are capable of playing more than one way. Quins have to play a high tempo offloading game as they need to avoid as much contact as possible. The last few weeks has seen some brave performances from them, but also two defeats as they have struggled to maintain the excellence of their prior form. Across a season there will always be slumps in form - and quins did well to grind out a win at Sandy Park. The next match for them will be interesting.

DaveM

Marland Yarde started full training last week and JJ did some light contact towards the end of the week. Would expect them both to be available in the next 2 weeks so long as they don't suffer any setbacks.

Saracens have a positive head to head against all the other top 4 contenders though in terms of the ones I am most wary of it goes:

Leicester
Saints


Quins

I would be more pleased to face Quins in the AP final (if we make it) than the other two.

That 5th win in a row against Quins was a real blow for them and doubts will now creep into the mind. To beat Quins in front of 82,000 rugby fans in their backyard is a big statement.

We have a positive record against Tigers recently but they have all been so tight. They are the team I am still most wary.

It wouldn't surprise me if we had yet another Sarries-Tigers Twickenham finale.

Saracens are a lot more potent in attack with Hodgson,Brits and Joubert starting. Yet again they lacked that firepower against Gloucester.

I agree LondonTiger. I think Tigers,Saints and Sarries are simply too powerful for Quins. Quins simply don't have the grunt in the pack and that extra power needed.

Not yet anyhow in my opinion.

Beshocked, well done on calling the Big Game correctly, and well done to Sarries for finding a gameplan to nullify Quins' attack.

I really wouldn't read too much into the psychology of it, though. I think the Quins players probably have a bigger problem with Wayne Barnes than with Sarries. He's a very good ref, but there's something to his interpretation of the game (and perhaps his determination not to show home bias) that Quins consistently struggle with.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Quins make and come through the semis but not quite have enough to win the final. Teams very rarely win the big prizes at the first attempt, and I think this squad needs another year or so to develop the Plans B and C needed to win titles.

Thanks poorfour. Sarries just did what they normally do. No of course you shouldn't focus on the losses but nevertheless they are there. I am of course going to put more emphasis on the record and you less.

I thought Wayne Barnes did an excellent job in the circumstances.

I do look at lot into head to heads and margins. I thought we would struggle with Gloucester and so it proved.

Do you need a plan B and C? Maybe to win the HC but if Plan A is executed effectively.....

I can't usually fault what Mr Barnes does (and when I've seen him explain his decisions the logic is good), but Quins for whatever reason do not seem to get the results when he refs them. I think he has very specific expectations of the breakdown and scrum that don't quite align with how we play. There may also be something to the idea that because he is local and spends a lot of time with the club he has a better idea where to look for our infringements than with other clubs...

Quins need a plan B and C because a team that can successfully slow things down at the breakdown can disrupt plan A. The usual response this season has been Plan A+, namely to cut out the breakdown altogether and up the intensity; we've yet to find a team who can live with that (including Sarries), but you can't sustain it for more than about 10 minutes - if Quins can't do enough damage in that time, they're vulnerable.

Most of the time, refs are sufficiently sympathetic to the attacking team that Plan A with bursts of Plan A+ is enough. But against really well-drilled opposition (typically wearing black), they're going to need an alternative option.

I personally don't feel Barnes favours one club or another. I think he is very good. Certainly much better than other ones I have seen recently.

It's no coincidence that most people believe the two best English refs are Dave Pearson and Wayne Barnes.

Barnes normally refs the most high profile games so Quins will normally play tougher opposition in those games.

I think Quins need to do more kicking over the defence and less trying to run it from everywhere. It can be a problem when the forwards think they are backs. E.g. Marler and Easter.

Poorfour wrote:Quins need a plan B and C because a team that can successfully slow things down at the breakdown can disrupt plan A.

Quins are probably the best side in the AP at playing to the refs limits in slowing down the ball.

LondonTiger you must be relishing your next showdown with Quins no?

beshocked wrote:LondonTiger you must be relishing your next showdown with Quins no?

It happens in round 21 and hopefully will see both teams at full strength. Should be a cracker withg both teams playing better than they did at Welford Rd.

LondonTiger wrote:

Poorfour wrote:Quins need a plan B and C because a team that can successfully slow things down at the breakdown can disrupt plan A.

Quins are probably the best side in the AP at playing to the refs limits in slowing down the ball.

Not denying that at all, but as I think ESPN pointed out at the weekend they do it by typically having a single tackler with two supporting players ready to go in on their feet and jackal. Wallace is particularly good at that. Where we've struggled has been when we've met teams who've been allowed to flop over the ball without being penalised.

Where we've struggled has been when we've met teams who've been allowed to flop over the ball without being penalised..

Tigers have similar issues, illustrated very well again at the weekend. Oh, for a Johnno or a Backie to be around with boot poised ready to remove the offending item. Deacon does it so well we really do suffer when he's injured. Slater hasn't quite developed that side of his game enough yet.

Pete, thanks that's good news. I think they are two exceptionally exciting young players. JJ should go straight to the Saxons despite his lack of game time recently.

I think Sarries will struggle to just turn it on. Last season although they tried to play a bit in the final (which they could have lost of course) that was almost the only time. Yes Hodgson gives them something they didn't have last season, but I just suspect someone will get a couple of tries ahead of them and they'll struggle to switch style. We'll see, but at present they are playing horrible rugby.

I wouldn't read too much into the BG - Quins had a very poor start. A couple of weeks previously they were completely outplayed by Toulouse, but learnt enough to put in one of the best English club performances of recent years in the rematch.

DaveM wrote:I wouldn't read too much into the BG - Quins had a very poor start. A couple of weeks previously they were completely outplayed by Toulouse, but learnt enough to put in one of the best English club performances of recent years in the rematch.

True - though with a tougher ref they would have seen a lot more yellow cards.

Also you should give more credit to Sarries - you guys started fine, they were just better.

DaveM wrote:Pete, thanks that's good news. I think they are two exceptionally exciting young players. JJ should go straight to the Saxons despite his lack of game time recently.

I think Sarries will struggle to just turn it on. Last season although they tried to play a bit in the final (which they could have lost of course) that was almost the only time. Yes Hodgson gives them something they didn't have last season, but I just suspect someone will get a couple of tries ahead of them and they'll struggle to switch style. We'll see, but at present they are playing horrible rugby.

I wouldn't read too much into the BG - Quins had a very poor start. A couple of weeks previously they were completely outplayed by Toulouse, but learnt enough to put in one of the best English club performances of recent years in the rematch.

You wouldn't read too much into the BG? You can hardly brush it away as flash in a pan when Saracens have beaten Quins 5 times in a row.

You might not say the record matters but they do.

Saracens have already put in some strong performances this season attacking wise. E.g. Saracens vs Ospreys at Wembley for the 1st 50 mins. Saracens vs Treviso. Leicester vs Saracens (admittedly against a Leicester side missing many players). The mighty Quins couldn't do the same vs Leicester though.

Problem for Saracens is they sometimes fail to really hammer a side when they have the upper hand. It's probably down to not wanting to take risks.

Thanks LondonTiger. True it's all about coming out of the blocks fast or you'll be left behind. Quins found themselves 9 points down and felt they needed to take risks which went they went 16 points down.



I would say the sides Saracens struggle with are London Irish,Wasps and Gloucester. Obviously Leicester are a tough cookie to crack too.

The Aviva Premiership head to head stats are really interesting.

Quins struggle really bad historically vs Leicester.
Saracens struggle vs Gloucester.
Leicester don't struggle vs anyone but Wasps and currently Saracens have asked serious questions.
Northampton find it tough historically vs Sarries and Leicester.

For what it's worth i'd prefer us to face Saints as we know how to rattle them and stop them playing.

But I truly believe we can beat any team in the top 4, likewise though we can lose to any of them. We don't have the consistency or experience yet for knock outs (please prove me wrong).

Yappysnap I agree it's Saints you probably want.

I would relish any match up. None would be easy though.