Who is for the Drop?

First topic message reminder :

I've probably just given Blackburn the kiss of death by suggesting on their thread that they'll avoid the drop.

My teams for the drop are the three new boys. I think inexperience will ultimately count against them. QPR's recent poor results are not far off becoming a freefall. Despite very respectable starts, I don't see Norwich or Swansea scoring enough and believe their commendable work rates may lead to them both running out of gas around Easter.

All carefully worked out and most likely entirely wrong. What do others think?

We shall win because we have Wilbraham

Wolves go bottom of the table on goal difference. It's looking like Wigan, Wolves and QPR for the drop. What these teams have to prevent is a wide gap opening up between them and Bolton and Blackburn - as this will depress their confidence further and will improve the confidence of Bolton/Blackburn. Bolton have postponed their Tuesday game with A Villa due to Muamba still being critically ill in hospital.

At the top, Man Utd are rapidly making up the goal difference deficit they have with Man City (latest ManU GD + 46 Man City +49).

Big result for Blackburn tonight against Sunderland - significant gap starting to open up.

I think QPR have to pull off an upset tomorrow - with home advantage they have to beat Liverpool. The pressure is going to mount up quickly - the bottom three could be decided with three games to go.

Bolton now have a game in hand with their away match at A Villa postponed. Saturday Bolton will play at home to Blackburn - a Blackburn win and they will be close to safety. It's looking promising for Muamba.

I'd be dissapointed if we even draw with QPR, the way we demolished Everton last week and our second half performance against Stoke where good, attacking football. Hopefully stick a few past QPR and give them a hand back down to the championship.

Massive result for QPR to come back for a win. Really opens things up - but looking even more desperate for Wolves and Wigan.

All though tonight was a big win for Qpr, i still think that due to there fixture list that they will go down. Though how Bolton react after what happened to Muamba will be intresting.

The Bolton v Blackburn game on saturday is massive. Blackburn win and i think it becomes a straight battle between QPR and Bolton. Bolton win and it drags Blackburn back into it.

Update to the Race for the Bottom table

20: Wolves		19: Wigan		18: Bolton		17: QPR		16: Blackburn		15: A Villa
P29 GD-33 Pts 22		P29 GD-29 Pts 22		P28 GD-26 Pts 23		P29 GD-18 Pts 25		P29 GD-18 Pts 28		P28 GD-4 PTS33
Norwich (a)		Liverpool (a)		Blackburn (h)		Sunderland (a)		Bolton (a)
Bolton (h)		Stoke (h)		Wolves (a)		Arsenal (h)		Man Utd (h)
Stoke (a)		Chelsea (a)		Fulham (h)		Man Utd (a)		West Brom (a)
Arsenal (h)		Man Utd (h)		Newcastle (a)		Swansea (h)		Liverpool (h)
Sunderland (a)		Arsenal (a)		Tottenham (h)		West Brom (a)		Swansea (a)
Man City (h)		Fulham (a)		Swansea (h)		Tottenham (h)		Norwich (h)
Swansea (a)		Newcastle (h)		Sunderland (a)		Chelsea (a)		Tottenham (a)
Everton (h)		Blackburn (a)		West Brom (h)		Stoke (h)		Wigan (h)
Wigan (a)		Wolves (h)		Stoke (a)		Man City (a)		Chelsea (a)
				Aston Villa (a)

I saw the highlights of the QPR v Liverpool match and nearly every pass Joey Barton attempted went straight to an opposition player. I have heard comment that he is too slow and needs replacing with someone else. Considering the fixture list, QPR still look favorites to go down, but the win over Liverpool may give them the confidence to play better which might give them a slim chance of avoiding the drop (but they probably need someone better than Barton in midfield).

Last week's events at White Hart Lane have put matters in perspective. With all good wishes to Fabrice Muamba, let's remember there are far worse things than relegation as we consider today's games.

Bolton v Blackburn. Whilst many neutrals will be rooting for a Bolton win in the wake of Muamba's collapse, I still admire the dignity of Steve Kean and how he appears to have turned things round at Blackburn. A point apiece would be my preferred outcome. However, I actually think the occasion may prove too much for Bolton with Blackburn taking all three points.

Other games involving the bottom five are:

Liverpool v Wigan.
Norwich v Wolves.
Sunderland v QPR.

I can only see three home wins there ....

NORWICH ALL THE WAY!!!!!

Wolves have to avoid defeat to Norwich today or else they are as doomed as a mouse in a bullfrog's lair.

Wolves remaining home games are with Arsenal, Man City and Everton [missed out Bolton - which they will need to win]. To have any chance of staying up they have to win away. Away to Norwich, a team that was in the Championship last season, is one of those they have to win.

However despite what quality they may have or may not have, the pressure is clearly just too much for them, they lack confidence and belief. I think for Wolves the question is going to be how long they can remain in "touch" before it becomes mathematically impossible for them to stay up. With a goal difference of -33 that's effectively an additional point they have to make up.

What they need to ensure is that when they do get relegated they are able to bounce back. Maybe Mick McCarthy would have been the best person to get them back up.

Cisse sent off for QPR - there's a turn up!

Update to the Race for the Bottom table

20: Wolves		19: Wigan		18: QPR		17: Bolton		16: Blackburn		15: A Villa
P30 GD-34 Pts 22		P30 GD-28 Pts 25		P30 GD-20 Pts 25		P29 GD-25 Pts 26		P30 GD-19 Pts 28		P29 GD-7 Pts 33
Bolton (h)		Stoke (h)		Arsenal (h)		Wolves (a)		Man Utd (h)
Stoke (a)		Chelsea (a)		Man Utd (a)		Fulham (h)		West Brom (a)
Arsenal (h)		Man Utd (h)		Swansea (h)		Newcastle (a)		Liverpool (h)
Sunderland (a)		Arsenal (a)		West Brom (a)		Tottenham (h)		Swansea (a)
Man City (h)		Fulham (a)		Tottenham (h)		Swansea (h)		Norwich (h)
Swansea (a)		Newcastle (h)		Chelsea (a)		Sunderland (a)		Tottenham (a)
Everton (h)		Blackburn (a)		Stoke (h)		West Brom (h)		Wigan (h)
Wigan (a)		Wolves (h)		Man City (a)		Stoke (a)		Chelsea (a)
						Aston Villa (a)

Poor from QPR - another sending off, Cisse again. He will now be out for four games which is half of their remaining games . Also poor from Wolves. Excellent from Wigan (what is it about Liverpool? Leading QPR 2-0 and losing and then losing at home to Wigan). Excellent from Bolton but Blackburn should have done better.


The next round of matches: Blackburn and QPR at home to Man Utd and Arsenal respectively ...
Wigan have to beat Stoke at home (they have Chelsea, ManUtd and Arsenal after that).
Wolves have to beat Bolton at home. I think Bolton are the most likely bet for safety considering their remaining games.

Grant Holt rules the world

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:Cisse sent off for QPR - there's a turn up!

Wolves had been leading Bolton 1-0 but a weak penalty made it 1-1 and then shortly afterwards Bolton scored in open play to go 1-2.

QPR beating Arsenal 2-1.
Wigan beating Stoke 1-0.

If the scores stay the same then Wolves will be 6 points adrift at the bottom with an extra point adrift equivalent due to their worse goal difference. There will only be 7 more matches to go. Bolton have now gone 3-1 up against Wolves. One could call this a Wolves capitulation after Bolton equalised with the penalty (unfairly given some say).

QPR and Wigan both win, as do Bolton. Wolves(22pts GD=-35) are effectively relegated.

One point separates
Wigan (28pts GD=-26)
QPR (28pts GD=-19)
Blackburn(28pts GD=-19) and
Bolton (29pts GD=-24)

Blackburn have to play Man Utd on Monday so their goal difference might suffer.

Interesting statistic. Grant Holt has missed four games for Norwich, including today, and each time Norwich have lost.

We really do miss his presence on the pitch

Not when we have the force that is WILBRAHAMOVIC COMING ON

Some very surprising results yesterday.

Apart from Wolves who look dispirited and doomed, the bottom clubs have suddenly found some fight and points. Blackburn seemed safe a couple of weeks ago but are now right back in the unsavoury mix. Even Villa on 33 points could still be overtaken ....

Good results yesterday for Bolton, QPR, and Wigan. Pleased to see Wigan doing well, got some good players, good manager and play good football. Wolves are definately gone, why they sacked McCarthy then to only put his number 2 in charge, who after hearing him in press conferences doesn't strike me as a guy who could rally the troops, as we've seen in their performances in recent games. Bolton and Blackburn are all touch and go, I think Blackburn will be the unlucky ones. Bolton are playing well and pressumebly this is due to Muamba's situation that's driving them on, another team with some good players and shouldn't really be where they are.

Wolves, QPR and Blackburn to go down for me, Bolton and Wigan surviving by the skin of their teeth's.

Wolves, QPR and

Villa might be starting to sweat just a little bit. You can never me "too good to go down".

starting to fear for Blackburn

Hope to get a result tonight but its a massive ask, only saving grace is that as others have pointed out QPR and Wigan have tough run ins, however both have upsetted the odds recently in the last week or so, so who knows what will happen!

Update to the Race for the Bottom table

20: Wolves		19: Wigan		18: Blackburn		17: QPR		16: Bolton		15: A Villa
P31 GD-35 Pts22		P31 GD-26 Pts28		P31 GD-21 Pts28		P31 GD-19 Pts28		P30 GD-24 Pts29		P30 GD-9 Pts33
Stoke (a)		Chelsea (a)		West Brom (a)		Man Utd (a)		Fulham (h)
Arsenal (h)		Man Utd (h)		Liverpool (h)		Swansea (h)		Newcastle (a)
Sunderland (a)		Arsenal (a)		Swansea (a)		West Brom (a)		Tottenham (h)
Man City (h)		Fulham (a)		Norwich (h)		Tottenham (h)		Swansea (h)
Swansea (a)		Newcastle (h)		Tottenham (a)		Chelsea (a)		Aston Villa (a)
Everton (h)		Blackburn (a)		Wigan (h)		Stoke (h)		Sunderland (a)
Wigan (a)		Wolves (h)		Chelsea (a)		Man City (a)		West Brom (h)
								Stoke (a)

Blackburn drop into the relegation zone. The bottom four all have away matches next with Wigan away to Chelsea and QPR away to Man Utd. Bolton have a home draw against Fulham. It seems possible that Bolton could end up above Aston Villa at the end of the season, but I think Villa have a sufficient points and Goal Difference gap to avoid relegation.

Hence, it seems that the sides to be relegated this season will be Wolves plus two from Wigan, Blackburn and QPR.

Bolton's Owen Coyle has been named Manager of the Month for March after a string of impressive results ...

Gylfi Sigurdsson has become the first Swansea City player to be awarded the Premier League Player of the Month award.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17616871

With seven games to go the (BBC) experts predict the three teams to be relegated:
All six reckon Wolves will finish bottom of the league:
All six reckon QPR will be relegated.
Four predict Wigan will be relegated.
One predicts Blackburn will be relegated.
One predicts Bolton will be relegated.

Personaly, I think the one choosing Bolton is probably a wazzock [It was Alan Hansen].
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17588745

i dont think qpr will be relegated.

I reckon QPR will be expecting to get at least 8 points from their last seven games:

home to Swansea - win
away to WBA - draw
home to Spurs - draw
home to Stoke - win

and this might be enough to keep them up. It also depends whether they can keep eleven men on the pitch. I think Blackburn have some quality attacking players, but I have my doubts on Steve Kean as a manager.

QPR won't beat Swansea at home

Ps by the time QPR play Man City (away), I think Man City will have nothing to play for. Also by the time QPR are playing Chelsea (away), Chelsea will probably be recovering from their Champions League match-up with Barcelona etc.

Chelsea fixture list looks a nightmare

FA Cup Tottenham V Chelsea Sun 15 Apr
Champions League Chelsea V Barcelona Wed 18 Apr
Premier League Arsenal V Chelsea Sat 21 Apr
Champions League Barcelona V Chelsea Tue 24 Apr 19:45
Premier League Chelsea V QPR Sun 29 Apr 13:30
Premier League Chelsea V Newcastle Wed 2 May
Premier League Liverpool V Chelsea Sat 5 May

ps The Spanish league wouldn't allow their Champions League contenders to have such a tight schedule. I don't think Chelsea have got any chance with that schedule, let alone having to play Barcelona.

With regard to next season it will be interesting to see if Norwich and Swansea can prevent the second season "blues", i.e. prevent themselves being relegated in the second season, after other teams "work them out" and their players being unsettled when bigger clubs come calling for them (and / or loan players returning to former clubs). I suppose they also need to retain their managers when Spurs come knocking.

ollyrules wrote:QPR won't beat Swansea at home

After taking care of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home I'd love to know your reasoning behind this statement olly?

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:QPR won't beat Swansea at home

After taking care of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home I'd love to know your reasoning behind this statement olly?

I know they beat them at home but they also lost to Wolves and Norwich at home. They don't perform well against the teams around them

Nore Staat wrote:With regard to next season it will be interesting to see if Norwich and Swansea can prevent the second season "blues", i.e. prevent themselves being relegated in the second season, after other teams "work them out" and their players being unsettled when bigger clubs come calling for them (and / or loan players returning to former clubs). I suppose they also need to retain their managers when Spurs come knocking.

Don't think many 'big clubs' will be interested in Swansea or Norwich players tbh. It don't see either Lambert or Rodgers leaving either team in the summer. They may get 'worked out' but what people don't realise is that both managers are great tacticians and can change their formations as to who they are playing, but I would say Norwich do this more than Swansea.

ollyrules wrote:

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:QPR won't beat Swansea at home

After taking care of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home I'd love to know your reasoning behind this statement olly?

I know they beat them at home but they also lost to Wolves and Norwich at home. They don't perform well against the teams around them

Both them defeats came about when the hoops played pretty much an hour in both games with ten men but I take your point. What better time to buck the trend?

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:QPR won't beat Swansea at home

After taking care of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home I'd love to know your reasoning behind this statement olly?

I know they beat them at home but they also lost to Wolves and Norwich at home. They don't perform well against the teams around them

Both them defeats came about when the hoops played pretty much an hour in both games with ten men but I take your point. What better time to buck the trend?

It would be but I can't see it happening tbh. They are far too hit and miss for my liking and to be honest I don't think they deserve to stay up

ollyrules wrote:

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:

FreekShow wrote:

ollyrules wrote:QPR won't beat Swansea at home

After taking care of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home I'd love to know your reasoning behind this statement olly?

I know they beat them at home but they also lost to Wolves and Norwich at home. They don't perform well against the teams around them

Both them defeats came about when the hoops played pretty much an hour in both games with ten men but I take your point. What better time to buck the trend?

It would be but I can't see it happening tbh. They are far too hit and miss for my liking and to be honest I don't think they deserve to stay up

If they secure a higher points total than three of the other teams then they will deserve their place next season. It's all about points now and nothing else.

Regarding the drop I'd say that had Villa not had such a fortunate start then they'd be well in the mire. That seven match unbeaten start may be the saving of them.

Villa have to be the most dire team in the Prem this season. What a crap team McLeish has turned them into

Martin O'Neill left Villa for a reason - there's not much more money left.

Nore Staat wrote:Martin O'Neill left Villa for a reason - there's not much more money left.

And it's highly unlikely they'll generate any further revenue through gate receipts looking at the dross they are spewing out week in, week out. The fans will continue to vote with their feet if they persevere with McLeish. Terrible appointment.

Wigans next 5 games are truly awful for them they need goliath performances to get anything from these. Its a shame as Martinez deserves to manage in this league far more than McLeish and Pulis..

Very harsh on Tony Pulis who has done an excellent job with Stoke in the league, he's turned them into a really formidable side. People genuinely fear going to the Britannia stadium these days, and Pulis has played a huge role in getting to that position.

He's made some good signings as well with people like Matty Ethrington, Robert Huth and Peter Crouch.

Just because Stoke don't play the football you want them to doesn't mean that he doesn't deserve to manage in the league, he's played to their strengths and has done it excellently.

Crimey wrote:Very harsh on Tony Pulis who has done an excellent job with Stoke in the league, he's turned them into a really formidable side. People genuinely fear going to the Britannia stadium these days, and Pulis has played a huge role in getting to that position.

He's made some good signings as well with people like Matty Ethrington, Robert Huth and Peter Crouch.

Just because Stoke don't play the football you want them to doesn't mean that he doesn't deserve to manage in the league, he's played to their strengths and has done it excellently.

completely agree.

Olly on what basis would you say QPR don't deserve to stay up...... Ridiculous sending off v Norwich cost 3 points @ home who they completely outplayed even with 10 men....... Should have had 3 points away to Bolton but for terribly bad officiating.... Bolton game alone is the difference from QPR being out of the drop on goal difference, or 5 points ahead of Bolton and 3 ahead of Blackburn... in which case most people would class them as a pretty safe bet to stay up.

Which of the five do any of you guys think are best equipped to bounce straight back up should they be relegated?

I really fear for Wigan if they do go down. They'd probably lose another five thousand from their gates and of course their top players too.

I'd fancy QPR to make a swift return myself. With or without Mark Hughes.

Regardless of what the table says, Blackburn are still 1 point better off than they should be and Wigan are 2 points down on where they should be and whatever happens throughout the rest of the season, I swear that if I ever meet any 'big' men of the FA or PL, I'll serve jail time after I've finished with the thieving, lying Bar Steward
I've no doubt many will say BS like, "things even themselves out over a season", or "every team can point to bad decisions", but the reality of the matter is, we were robbed of 2 points by officials who didn't even know the rules, when Blackburn were allowed to dribble a corner into the box before scoring from it, the ref watched the entire incident and did nothing.
There were a few other incidents I could bring up from that match, like the equalising goal coming 2 full minutes after added time had elapsed, even though the ball hadn't gone out of play, 2 Blackburn players missing out on blatant second yellow cards, an offiside goal etc. but I know these are the knid of things that happen regularly, yet we never even had a comment from the FA, let alone an apology, for the utter ineptitude of their officials that day.
For this reason alone, if we go down instead of Blackburn, but would have stayed up if that game wasn't such a farce, I'll take the £50m (or whatever it actually is) we'll lose out on and make sure that we receive that much directly from those who run the FA and PL, even if it means breaking many laws to get JUSTICE

Bitter? Moi?