Consistency in 6 Nations doesn't bring in the titles.

With the six Nations getting nearer I had a look at the last 12 years of the tournament. What struck me immediately is that the results of championship wins do not correlate with the teams that most consistently beat their rivals.

Since the six nations in 2000 the match winning stats read like this.

All Nations have played 60 matches.
France has won 44 matches, lost 16 (73%)
Ireland has won 42 matches, lost 18 (70%)
England has won 39 matches, lost 20 and drawn 1 (66%)
Wales have won 27 matches, lost 31 and drawn 2. (47%)
Scotland has won 16, lost 42 and drawn 2. (28%)
Italy has won 8, lost 51 and drawn 1. (14%)

Yet France has won 5 six Nations trophies in this time and England 4. Surprisingly Ireland has only won once, even Wales with a 46.67% win ratio has won 2.

This leads me to believe that consistency in the Six Nations does not mean much, but rather a string of 4 or five good matches in a season. If consistent winning meant anything then Ireland would have and should have won a few more trophies and England and Wales a few less.

The only way I see consistency play a bigger role is to lengthen the competition into a home and away format. Yes, I realise the season is not long enough, but how else can consistent performances be rewarded?

To me it seems very odd that the team with the second most wins in the last 12 tournaments, and in fact only two wins behind France, has four less titles.
If you assign points for where teams have finished over the last 12 tournaments, 6 points for winning, 5 for second place, 4 for third etc.

These are the points earned by each country.
France 59
England 57
Ireland 55
Wales 37
Scotland 28
Italy 16.

In the last twelve years Ireland has only once not finished in the top half of the table. England twice finished in the bottom half, Apart from 2005 and 2008 when Wales won their Grandslams they did not finish in the top half once.


Very interesting and surprising, don't you think?

Without looking at the results Ireland must have lost a good deal of matches when it counted to retain that win rate/ trophy ratio.
Sounds like our wcup ratio.

For me the 6N, being spread so wide, are really a series of one offs. So many nations playing each other once often at 2 weekly intervals. No time to gather momentum or dominate a team over 2-3 meetings as we have in the 3N though we often get similarly inconsistent results.

Does confirm our worst nemesis from the 6N is France as expected which based on these stats when combined with the wcup puts France as firm faves in my book.

Im backing Wales but Im just not sure how much of thats is wishful thinking in wanting to see a repeat of that form/ style.

Nah Home and Away ties would make it very boring. As much as i like watching the tri nations for the entertaining rugby the comp in itself is pretty pointless.
In the future id like it to expand to include Georgia, Romania and Russia. Maybe we could even have a UEFA Euro style comp in the future.

gowales, why pointless?

I take that back i should have said repetitive (trying to think of a better word). Three nations playing each 3 times to me just lacks that extra something, they should have included Samoa, Tonga and Fiji from the start

Ok, yes i agree with the repetitive nature, it does get monotonous that way.

Hopefully with argentina in the mix it will be more interesting.

Repetitive is a much better word. It's never pointless to play Australia or SA. I agree Argentina is a welcome addition to mix things up. Hopefully some PI teams can join in the future.

The 6N is a great tournament but with lower ranked teams, there are too many poor games. When was the last time England or Scotland scored a try at Murrayfield? You don't have to score a try in order for it to be a great match but these matches are like watching your Grandma getting a sponge bath at the hospital. Something that´s just not good for you to watch and actually damages your eyes.

Can't see a home and away format. With 6 teams that's 10 games instead of 5 in an already crowded calendar. The clubs wouldn't tolerate it. Interesting to see Ireland so high up in the table and with so few wins to show for it. The Welsh posters often tend to say Ireland talks itself up without the results to show for it. This suggests in part it´s merited.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:

The 6N is a great tournament but with lower ranked teams, there are too many poor games. When was the last time England or Scotland scored a try at Murrayfield? You don't have to score a try in order for it to be a great match but these matches are like watching your Grandma getting a sponge bath at the hospital. Something that´s just not good for you to watch and actually damages your eyes.

although I now have to go slaughter a pig to get that image out of my mind, it is said that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, there may just be an 89 year old geyser watching all this and drolling all over his gums.

Taylorman wrote:Without looking at the results Ireland must have lost a good deal of matches when it counted to retain that win rate/ trophy ratio.
Sounds like our wcup ratio.

Ireland from 2001 to 2007 were incredibly consistent winning 3 triple crowns and just missing out on a couple of Grandslams by a whisker, most noteably in 2002 and 2007, and we've rarely been out of the top 3.

Unfortunately we've come up against a World cup winning England side(2003), two excellent Wales sides (2005, 2008) and France have been very strong over the past decade too.

One GS is a poor return for the side we've had but overall our record up until recent times has been very good and has been a fair reflection of our side I think.

What the stats seem to prove, and for me have always proved, is that in Six Nations history so far (and I am talking about 6N..with Italy included, and they have changed the dynamic so they matter... listen up you 5Nations lovers) - in 6N history the ultimate battle has been between France and Ireland. They've been the real sparring partners and most important rivals for each other, as mostly when France have been winning their 5 titles, they in the process were frustrating Ireland out of one.

I think Ireland think far too much about Wales and England... and seem to regard France as something exotic, something to be treated differently, almost a caution shown only to SH sides is bestowed on the French when we meet them. And yet our players have proven time and time again that they can match the French players, outmuscle and outsmart them in HC.

The psychological wall is real and it needs more focus to break it down. I hope this decade will be the age of Irish players no longer freezing up in the headlight beam of those darned French.

i think what this proves is one thing.....

Wales can beat anyone on their day.

SecretFly wrote:I hope this decade will be the age of Irish players no longer freezing up in the headlight beam of those darned French.

Our results have gotten worse in the first two tournaments of this decade. It used to be nearly always between us and the French. When playing England, Scotland and Wales I was never in any doubt we'd beat them in the 00's. And we nearly always did. We haven't even been in the running in the last two years. We're going backwards under Kidney. We've lost three in a row to France, twice in a row to Wales and even lost to England in the World Cup warm ups. We lost at home to Scotland in 2010 and very very nearly lost our first ever 6 Nations match to Italy last year. The old consistency is gone. Long gone.

We won't be overcoming any new hurdles this decade, if we're not even close to matching our previous form of the 00's. The strange thing is our domestic sides are probably getting better. On paper the Irish pack is definitely stronger than the 00's version. We definitely have more strength in depth. So what's wrong? Is it all down to the decline of D'arcy/BOD?

Feckless Rogue wrote:

SecretFly wrote:I hope this decade will be the age of Irish players no longer freezing up in the headlight beam of those darned French.

Our results have gotten worse in the first two tournaments of this decade. It used to be nearly always between us and the French. When playing England, Scotland and Wales I was never in any doubt we'd beat them in the 00's. And we nearly always did. We haven't even been in the running in the last two years. We're going backwards under Kidney. We've lost three in a row to France, twice in a row to Wales and even lost to England in the World Cup warm ups. We lost at home to Scotland in 2010 and very very nearly lost our first ever 6 Nations match to Italy last year. The old consistency is gone. Long gone.

We won't be overcoming any new hurdles this decade, if we're not even close to matching our previous form of the 00's. The strange thing is our domestic sides are probably getting better. On paper the Irish pack is definitely stronger than the 00's version. We definitely have more strength in depth. So what's wrong? Is it all down to the decline of D'arcy/BOD?

Yeah, I agree about the going backwards, Feckless. But again, blinkers seem to go up when the actual Six Nations begins. This season, all the talk will be about the 'local' gang, both in the papers and even here. England (old enemy and all that craic- yawn) and Wales (we gotta get one back at them, we owe it to them - yawn) There's always allegedly some wrong to be righted against the Welsh and some historical love-in-hate-in relationship to be honoured with the English. And yet the real threat always stalks through the competition without any real venom coming from the Irish about THAT being the side we need to take down, THOSE being the guys we have to match. Yes, England can beat them easily enough. But England aren't traditionally our biggest banana skin, the French are.

My point is we give them too much respect, both in the media and amongst fans - almost as if they do their bit in the Six Nations on their own and leave the rest of us to bicker amongst ourselves. If we really pay attention to France, and do the proper homework and concentrate on them more than the others...we'll be getting close to finally getting rid of our hangups about them. And if we prepare for the French, it's a good foundation for the rest of them anyway. I do think there is too much of a yearly mental standoff from the French, an evasion of any real idea that France is our real head to head battle, our real "we owe it to them" side, our real historical grudge match.

To me, it says the Irish have consistently underacheived in comparison to the standards they are capable of. You could look at it as coming up against very in-form teams at the time, or that Ireland never seemed to take that 1 extra step.

Ireland have the ability of blowing teams off the park (eg. England-6n/Australia-wcup) but that same team can turn out a week later with little-to-none of the aggression and panache of the week before (Italy-6n/Wales-wcup).

I think once the centre partnership is sorted, there is enough talent in/around the squad and coming through at the provinces for Ireland to be successful at the highest level (yes, i mean world cup). It's yet to be seen if Kidney is the right man to take them forward, personally, I dont think so. There main problem seems to be motivation as much as anything else.

One thing sticks out the most is two Grand Slams for Wales despite never finishing in the top half in other years. I think this shows that they have had very good individuals, capable of competing with anyone, but maybe their team cohesion, morale, depth etc hasn't been up to scratch in most years.

Feckless Rogue wrote:
Our results have gotten worse in the first two tournaments of this decade. It used to be nearly always between us and the French. When playing England, Scotland and Wales I was never in any doubt we'd beat them in the 00's. And we nearly always did. We haven't even been in the running in the last two years. We're going backwards under Kidney. We've lost three in a row to France, twice in a row to Wales and even lost to England in the World Cup warm ups. We lost at home to Scotland in 2010 and very very nearly lost our first ever 6 Nations match to Italy last year. The old consistency is gone. Long gone.

We won't be overcoming any new hurdles this decade, if we're not even close to matching our previous form of the 00's. The strange thing is our domestic sides are probably getting better. On paper the Irish pack is definitely stronger than the 00's version. We definitely have more strength in depth. So what's wrong? Is it all down to the decline of D'arcy/BOD?

I agree unfortunately Feckless. Talk of the French is folly at this stage when the first two seasons of this decade has seen us fall behind England and Wales. We're 1 for 1 against Scotland too. Contrast to the previous 10 years were we won 4 triple crowns.

We need to get back to level we were at previously before we worry about kicking on.

roddersm wrote:
I agree unfortunately Feckless. Talk of the French is folly at this stage when the first two seasons of this decade has seen us fall behind England and Wales. We're 1 for 1 against Scotland too. Contrast to the previous 10 years were we won 4 triple crowns.

We need to get back to level we were at previously before we worry about kicking on.

Well, that's always our downfall in my opinion - 'bedding it down', 'earning the right to go wide', 'winning the game that's infront of us', taking it 'one game at a time'.

That's Ireland's downfall, the lack of a real belief that they can achieve and sustain a level above these 'Home' nations.

Let's get back to beating England and Wales regularly (a four or five year plan) and then think about the exotic boys in Blue. Sorry, but I think that has already been the plan all through the 00s. We never had a really big idea of ourselves. I doubt that many of the players would even realise how many games they've 'won' in the competition. That we're only one off France's tally.

We struggle year in and year out against a weak Italy because we use the tagline excuse that 'You have to respect Italy. You have to meet them where they play hardest and compete there.'

So for many years our much more dynamic players dogged it out and got beaten up and scored far less points against a weak side than we would have if we cut loose. And we even showed that we didn't need to play their game when one year, can't remember the year now (think it was 2007), but we needed a heavy score against them to have a hope of a championship, and that's exactly what we did. We didn't toy with them, we didn't fool around with their forwards, we cut them open. It wasn't enough but it showed me that the annual Italy muck fest is a 'tradition' that will probably be repeated this year too.

Less tradition, and traditional rivals, and more a genuine plan to WIN the Six Nations. England put a cricket score on Italy last year not for the fun of it, not because the lads were loving the game and themselves but because it was profitable in the climate to have a good points difference built up in case of necessity. A ruthless professional approach to the overall target of winning the Championship.

I think you've misinterprated what I meant a tad secretfly.

With the players we have then we should be aiming high, trying to win Grandslams, not fearing other sides but looking to dominate the collisions and open them up...to be clinical, patient and ruthless.

However the stark reality is that under Kidney we've gone backwards. We have a conservative and inconsistant selection policy and an incoherent and at times non existant gameplan.

We are not entitled to anything and England, wales, Scotland and Italy will not be lieing down for us. We have to prove that we are a team to be respected and feared again and not just a team who pulls off the odd big performance now and again, which is unfortunately what we have become.

It's probably worth pointing out that all of England, Wales, Scotland and Italy have probably improved to various degrees since the 00's. It wasn't exactly a period when all these teams were at their best was it? Post 2003 in England's case. So it could be a case of them catching up as much as us declining.

Although I do agree with the incoherence of Ireland's play under Kidney. They just so rarely get a complete performance together.

It seems that Ireland has something in common with SA, we also don't put teams away we should. We are happy to beat a weaker team comfortably rather than playing aggressive rugby to annihilate the opposition.

It does tend to create a habit of not performing all the time and if you don't use those "weaker" matches as a foundation to build confidence in players own skills, it automatically tends to show a more conservative game plan against tougher opposition.

NZ are the same Biltong
We should have put France away in October

Ngan to put any team away in a final of a world cup no matter how poor they were performing prior to that is not that simple.

France was hihgly motivated and New Zealand had a tough nut to crack.