HEC round 5 Who will win or lose.

Pool 1

Scarlets v Northampton, Pl1, Saturday, 14 January 13:30
Munster v Castres, Pl1, Saturday, 14 January 15:40


Pool 2

Racing Metro 92 v Edinburgh, Pl2, Friday, 13 January 20:00
London Irish v Cardiff Blues, Pl2, Saturday, 14 January 15:40


Pool 3

Montpellier v Bath, Pl3, Saturday, 14 January 13:00
Glasgow v Leinster, Pl3, Sunday, 15 January 12:45


Pool 4

Ulster v Leicester, Pl4, Friday, 13 January 20:00
Aironi v Clermont Auvergne, Pl4, Saturday, 14 January13:30


Pool 5

Ospreys v Treviso, Pl5, Friday, 13 January 20:00
Saracens v Biarritz, Pl5, Sunday, 15 January 15:00


Pool 6

Harlequins v Gloucester, Pl6, Saturday, 14 January 18:00
Toulouse v Connacht, Pl6, Saturday, 14 January 15:40

Pool 1
win, Munster & Saints

Pool 2
Edinburgh & Irish

Pool 3
Bath & Leinster

Pool 4
Leicester & Clermont

Pool 5
Ospreys & Saracens

Pool 6
Quins & Toulouse(hope Connacht can put up a good fight though).

Saints, Munster, Edinburgh, Cardiff Blues, Montpellier , Leinster, Ulster , Clermont, Ospreys, Saracens, Harlequins and Toulouse to win.

A lot of fabulous fixtures over the weekend alright. I'm edging towards home teams for all games except for Clermont and Leinster.

How much for a Montpelier v Bath draw? That is their form for home HCup fixtures after all.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:How much for a Montpelier v Bath draw? That is their form for home HCup fixtures after all.

Montpellier are a good team, Bath looked like they were in good form last week, looked OK this week but lost badly to Sarries

Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

Biarritz are still anchored to the bottom of the top 14, but got a good win over tricky Agen last weekend. If they culd get the double on Saracens that could really open up pool 5.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

C'mon Pete, now's the time to break the pattern - win this one and lose the next - I'll owe you a or ten!

Pool1:
Northampton.
Munster (just enough again and nearly not enough again - nerves)

Pool2:
Edinburgh
Blues

Pool3:
Montpellier
Leinster

Pool4:
Leicester (tough as old boots game..maybe some tough to bear injuries)
Clermont

Pool5:
I think Treviso might pull it off.
Saracens

Pool6:
Harlequins
Connacht - okay, so it's the longest of long shots but you have to put at least one in for fun...why not the least likely of all?

Not going to comment on all the games individually but I can see Ulster beating Leicester at home.

The Edinburgh game will have given them a lot of confidence, coupled with beating Munster at home and all of their bigger names fresh and ready for battle. If Clermont couldn’t beat them, then Leicester won’t.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

C'mon Pete, now's the time to break the pattern - win this one and lose the next - I'll owe you a or ten!

I can't see us winning either to be honest mate, we are seriously lacking ball carriers in our pack due to injuries and suspensions. We will also be missing our first choice 10, 11 and 13 and possible 12 as well. If we get anything from either of these games it will be a miracle!

Pool 1

Scarlets v Northampton: Scarlets - Saints are really coming into some form but have no hope of qualifying for the QF's. However if they fancy an Amlin spot they might well nick it here - Still fancy Scarlets though.

Munster v Castres: Munster - Castres have given up the ghost so will travel with a weak side with no interest - 5 points for Munster (I hope)

Pool 2

Racing Metro 92 v Edinburgh: Edinburgh - see Castres, although Racing are at home it looks like they have lost interest.
London Irish v Cardiff Blues: No idea, LI seem to be mixing the good with the awful. Edging towards Blues

Pool 3

Montpellier v Bath: Montpellier, although both teams are out I think Montpellier are still taking their home games seriously and will probably scrape through
Glasgow v Leinster: Leinster

Pool 4

Ulster v Leicester: Ulster: Ulster are an impressive outfit at home. Tigers need a bonus point but the loss of Flood could be telling here.

Aironi v Clermont Auvergne: Clermont with a bp win.

Pool 5

Ospreys v Treviso: Ospreys bp win
Saracens v Biarritz: Sarries, I think they's deny Biarritz a lbp and should wrap up qualification.

Pool 6

Harlequins v Gloucester: Quins - although reality has hit a little for Quins I expect a good win here which will set them up for one of the 2nd place QF spots.
Toulouse v Connacht: Toulouse - 5 points for the aristocrats. Could be a very long day for Connacht!

Ozzy3213 wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

C'mon Pete, now's the time to break the pattern - win this one and lose the next - I'll owe you a or ten!

I can't see us winning either to be honest mate, we are seriously lacking ball carriers in our pack due to injuries and suspensions. We will also be missing our first choice 10, 11 and 13 and possible 12 as well. If we get anything from either of these games it will be a miracle!

If its any comfort Ozzy most of 606V2 seem to think you should beat the Blues

Having spanked Glos for the last couple of seasons I can see now when it counts the most them pulling it all together and beating us. Hopefully though we'll be smarting from the shaming away at Saints and the boys will go out to restore the pride.

Should have Evans back too.

Glos do have a good backline and could make a game of it...

All home wins bar Leinster & Clermont

bedfordwelsh wrote:All home wins bar Leinster & Clermont

Great minds think alike

maestegmafia wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

C'mon Pete, now's the time to break the pattern - win this one and lose the next - I'll owe you a or ten!

I can't see us winning either to be honest mate, we are seriously lacking ball carriers in our pack due to injuries and suspensions. We will also be missing our first choice 10, 11 and 13 and possible 12 as well. If we get anything from either of these games it will be a miracle!

If its any comfort Ozzy most of 606V2 seem to think you should beat the Blues

They are right, we SHOULD beat the Blues. Whether we WILL or not is an altogether entirely different conversation.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Having won yesterday London Irish will almost certainly lose this week having failed to string together back to back wins since early September!

C'mon Pete, now's the time to break the pattern - win this one and lose the next - I'll owe you a or ten!

I can't see us winning either to be honest mate, we are seriously lacking ball carriers in our pack due to injuries and suspensions. We will also be missing our first choice 10, 11 and 13 and possible 12 as well. If we get anything from either of these games it will be a miracle!

If its any comfort Ozzy most of 606V2 seem to think you should beat the Blues

They are right, we SHOULD beat the Blues. Whether we WILL or not is an altogether entirely different conversation.

Its not been a great season so far at the Exiles...! There is a glimmer of hope of qualification for them if they get two very convincing wins in their last two games and some important helpful losses from others.

either way in case anyone is unsure of what game it is you are watching Nigel Owens is on hand ..................... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YUF9LSXAkY

Good post...!

The Vote is starting to take shape

Munster with 8% certain to beat Castres, Northampton Saints 2% will be lucky to come away from PYS with points. Scarlets 5%


London Irish 6% looking favourites to put the Cardiff Blues 2% further don the pool table. Edinburgh 3% are being voted less likely to win away in ParisRacing Métro 4%. Their Christmas form showing them up

Leinster 7% almost certain to beat Glasgow Warriors 1%. Warriors have had some good form recently though not quite as Leinster have had. Bath are 1% likely to suffer on a trip to the south of France Montpellier 5%

Leicester Tigers 2% are not favourites to beat Ulster 5%. Clermont 7% will be top on Monday.

Ospreys 6% favourites over Treviso, we know Treviso can cause shocks, they are a good team. Saracens 7% get the vote over Biarritz, though Biarritz have had a few good games recently they are no push overs.

The popular vote confirms Toulouse 7% and Harlequins 8% likely to go to the wire for group 6.

maestegmafia wrote:

Leicester Tigers 2% are not favourites to beat Ulster 5%. Clermont 7% will be top on Monday.

If both Ulster and Clermont win at the weekend Clermont will not be top Ulster will - regardless of how the BPs go

True...

Im not fully convinced Ulster can do it personally... Tigers seem to have re-found their mojo

maestegmafia wrote:True...

Im not fully convinced Ulster can do it personally... Tigers seem to have re-found their mojo

Well if anyone has mojo at the moment its Ulster - 4 bonus point wins in the last 4 games where we put the first XV out.

I think Flood and Manu not playing tips it in our favour. Also note that, one game against Gloucester apart, we have not lost at home to an English team in close on a decade

http://pinkrugby.com/2012/heineken-cup-preview-rd-5

Good link Ozzy...!

Great preview, Pete

What is fantastic this year is that most groups three teams still have a mathematical, to be diplomatic, chance of qualifying.

The pool Stages are far from over. In the extreme, as Ozzy's link states Montpellier could qualify from pool 3 where they currently sit in third position. Likewise Saints who conceded a try bonus point at home to the Scarlets in the early rounds could go through, especially after thrashing Castres last round. It is unlikely that teams in third will usurp those above. But the excitement of the competition is in the chances available, anyone can have a bad day.

News

Pool 1

Scarlets: New Wales call-up Liam Williams is set to miss Scarlets' European clash with Northampton as they hope to keep their Heineken Cup quarter-final dream alive. The Scarlets full-back missed their 16-14 win over Glasgow because of ankle trouble and he has a fitness test ahead of the visit of the 2011 finalists. Scrum-half Gareth Davies (groin), Sean Lamont (calf), and Dominic Day (calf) are all expected to be passed fit.

Munster: Back rower Denis Leamy will be out of action for four months as he undergoes hip surgery. The veteran has been severely hampered by the injury of late, turning out just seven times this season as he struggles to overcome the aliment. After visiting a specialist in London earlier in the week, it has now been decided that surgery is required.


Blues Pool 2

Cardiff: Gavin Henson's hopes of playing in his first Six Nations Championship game for three years have been boosted by his recovery from a calf problem. The Cardiff Blues back was an 11th hour withdrawal from the team which lost to Pro12 leaders Leinster on Saturday, because of a minor calf strain, but he is now fit to face London Irish in the Heineken Cup on Saturday.

Pool 3

Leinster are in great form but Guy Easterby says they will not take Glasgow lightly. "We are doing okay at the moment, but we are not getting ahead of ourselves and we know that we have got a massive game this weekend, no-one is pretending that we are playing perfect rugby but we are winning games. In big European games nothing but your best is going to be good enough and its going to be a huge game for us at Firhill. Easterby told the official Heineken Cup website.

Pool 4

Vern Cotter set his Clermont Auvergne side the task of reaching a home quarter-final in Heineken Cup at the start of the season and he knows that they need a victory on the road this weekend against Aironi to keep those hopes alive. Clermont find themselves third in Pool 4 after four rounds of Heineken Cup action. Ulster and Leicester Tigers sit above them, but only three points separate the three sides with two matches remaining.
Cotter's team face Aironi this weekend before hosting Ulster the following Saturday and he knows nothing but a victory in northern Italy will do for his squad. "At the beginning of the season, our goal was to get a home quarter final, and we know to reach this goal we have to win and score at least 4 tries. But we also know that isn't going to be easy and we are prepared for what Aironi will throw at us. We have watched Aironi evolve and they are getting better and better, especially from their time in the Celtic league."

Pool 5

Ospreys Wing Shane Williams may return after missing their defeat at Newport Gwent Dragons. Former Wales lock Ian Gough returns from a ban to boost the hosts, but their back five could be hit by citings for Jonathan Thomas and George Stowers. The Ospreys are already without locks Alun Wyn Jones (toe), James Goode (back) and James King (ear).

Pool 6

Connacht head to the South of France to take on French leaders Toulouse in the Heineken Cup on the back of a defeat to Airioni in the Rabbo Pro 12. Not a good position to be in. They are hoping to give a good account of themselves, basing their hopes in the running game that see's them at their finest.

bedfordwelsh wrote:All home wins bar Leinster & Clermont

Morning Bedford mate.

May I remind you that there have been an ever increasing amount of away wins each round of HEC.

maes,

You may and my tips have been somewhat wayward with just over and just under 50% in last two rounds but thats the calls though agree there are some that I wouldn't be surprised to go the other way.

My predictions weren't too much better mate.. But mostly by underestimating away form and the improvements in teams since the first rounds once they had their RWC players back and playing well.

Can't see us beating Cardiff Blues this week. Our entire first choice back row are out either injured or suspended, and the first choice replacement for every position (Treviranus who covers the whole back row) is in Samoa on paternity leave.

6. Evans (a lock) 7. Thorpe (a below average AP player) 8. Gray (last years Eng U20 captain and an excellent prospect) is not filling me with a huge amount of confidence.

maestegmafia wrote:My predictions weren't too much better mate.. But mostly by underestimating away form and the improvements in teams since the first rounds once they had their RWC players back and playing well.

never write off Munster

No one ever does and invariably they always prove us right. Munster did well to get the double on Scarlets. I fear that really nailed Scarlets coffin....!

From oddschecker, favourites are in bold:
Home team (home odds) v (draw odds) Away team (away odds):

Ospreys (1/14) v (40) Treviso (7)
Racing Metro (1/7) v (33/2) Edinburgh (4/13)
Ulster (10/11) v (18) Leicester (11/10)
Montpellier (1/10) v (31/2) Bath (11/21)
Scarlets (10/11) v (18) Northampton (11/10)
Aironi (21/5) v (19) Clermont Auvergne (1/25)
London Irish (4/5) v (20) Cardiff Blues (6/5)
Munster (1/19) v (33) Castres (17/2)
Toulouse (1/100) v (66) Connacht (33)
Harlequins (1/4) v (22) Gloucester (3)
Glasgow (3) v (22) Leinster (2/7)
Saracens (4/11) v (22) Biarritz (5/2)

Cheers ASBO

saints Scarlets looks a close one as does London irish and blues

geoff998rugby wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:True...

Im not fully convinced Ulster can do it personally... Tigers seem to have re-found their mojo

Well if anyone has mojo at the moment its Ulster - 4 bonus point wins in the last 4 games where we put the first XV out.

I think Flood and Manu not playing tips it in our favour. Also note that, one game against Gloucester apart, we have not lost at home to an English team in close on a decade

I don't think Munster had ever lost at home either prior to Leicesters visit a few seasons ago. I'm not saying Tigers will win but the fact that Ulster have not lost at home to an English team in close to a decade means nothing. I think Leicester will play with a little more freedom as they are clearly the underdogs.

I'm very confident in our lads. I'm 99% sure the Ravenhill factor will see us home. I hope to God I'm not proven wrong, but then again I know that this game means as much to the players as any other game they'll ever play. And I know the talent we have throughout the team is a match for anyone.

So if I am proven wrong, Leicester will have one of their greatest ever Heineken Cup wins. Up there with the win at Thomond Park, up there with any Cup Final they've played. And they'll have earned it, by God they'll have to earn it, because they are about to come up against fifteen madmen prepared to run through brick walls for 80 minutes in front of one of the most partisan crowds in European rugby.

I'd say the one certainty is that there will be a few sore bodies the next day and much alcohol will be imbibed by both sets of fans regardless.

Ozzy3213 wrote:Can't see us beating Cardiff Blues this week. Our entire first choice back row are out either injured or suspended, and the first choice replacement for every position (Treviranus who covers the whole back row) is in Samoa on paternity leave.

6. Evans (a lock) 7. Thorpe (a below average AP player) 8. Gray (last years Eng U20 captain and an excellent prospect) is not filling me with a huge amount of confidence.

Thats good new for me

The Blues have half their first team returning from injury this week - hopefully they wont be too rusty :/

Im backing the Blues to win though, they have had some decent performances recently.

London Irish have had very inconsistent form this year. Mind you the Blues have had some shockers

wales606 wrote:

Ozzy3213 wrote:Can't see us beating Cardiff Blues this week. Our entire first choice back row are out either injured or suspended, and the first choice replacement for every position (Treviranus who covers the whole back row) is in Samoa on paternity leave.

6. Evans (a lock) 7. Thorpe (a below average AP player) 8. Gray (last years Eng U20 captain and an excellent prospect) is not filling me with a huge amount of confidence.

Thats good new for me

The Blues have half their first team returning from injury this week - hopefully they wont be too rusty :/

Im backing the Blues to win though, they have had some decent performances recently.

Good news for Cardiff. I went all home wins except for Leinster, Clermont and the Blues. Have a feeling Toulouse, Munster, Quins and Clermont will have big wins. Worried about Ulster even at home but I think they might just scape through in a tight one. Also Leinster... at home I'd have them 25+ but not so confident it will be such a large margin away in Glasgow.

Not sure Quins have it right at the moment.. I watched them over Christmas and they seem a little unfamiliar of that team that did so well in Toulouse.

Do you think they will crumble at the business end of things, maes?

I can see Quins losing to be honest - they look a pale shadow of the team earlier in the year.

Evans, Greenwood and Deans all saod Ulster are favourites - I really really wish they hadn't said that

The irony for Leicester is they could win this ,which would be a magnificant performance, and still might not qualify that would be very very tough on them. Lack of bonus points could be their undoing

maestegmafia and geoff Quins only lost against two of the strongest sides in the AP. It's hardly alarm bells ringing.

Gloucester are a side Quins regularly do very well against so I expect Quins to put in a good performance.

London Irish have not been able to win two matches in a row. So going by that you would think that Cardiff would win.

Leicester have the capability to beat Ulster. Need a big performance from Billy to stand any chance.

Saints fate depends on what team they play. Play a full strength side and Scarlets could be in trouble.

Bath will likely struggle. With nothing to play for in the HC they should go for broke.

Saracens should beat Biarritz after being buoyed by a relaxing break in South Africa and 6 of their players being called up for the England squad. In all the 5 HC games Saracens vs Biarritz the home team has won - Biarritz lead 3-2 but in their last appearance at VR - Biarritz got slaughtered 45-16. Big performance needed from the men in black to wrap up a quarter final.

I am sure Ulster will have plenty of fans cheering them back to their former glories... Should be the game of the weekend.

beshocked wrote:
Saints fate depends on what team they play. Play a full strength side and Scarlets could be in trouble.

Scarlets got a try bonus point Away against a full Strength Saints team...!