Edinburgh's HK qualifying looking good

After that stunning win for Edinburgh away to Racing I've taken a look at the options and our chances for qualifying for the quarters for the first time since 2003.

Edinburgh are in a fantastic position with 17 points and one last game to play at home to London Irish who are only playing for pride.

So the way I see it - get a bonus point win and we'll either win the group (if Cardiff lose or don't get a bonus point) or be one of the best 2nd place teams. If we don't get a losing bonus we need Cardiff to lose, which probably won't happen against racing Metro's youth team at home! However I think we could still be one of the best 2nd place teams:

Pool 1:

Munster 20 points
Northampton 12 points

Next game - Munster away to Northampton. Hopefully Northampton can do us a favour and win this one.

Pool 3

Leinster - 16 points
Glasgow 10 points

Leinster likely to win this and the next game and be above us in points, whether we get a bonus point or not, getting a home QF

Pool 4

Ulster 19 points
Clermont 16 points

Next game - Ulster away to Clermont

Can see Clermont winning this one, ending up on 20 points and Ulster on 19/20 points. If we win we will be above both teams.

Pool 5

Saracans 14
Ospreys 13

Ospreys have only a game left so aren't an issue - Saracens will probably win both games and end up home QF

Pool 6

Toulouse 18
Quins 16

Can see both Tolouse and Quins getting bonus point wins in their next games and particularly Toulouse will be ahead of us and probably a home QF.

So basically if we win without a bonus point we will be on 21 points, with a chance of being in the top 4 but most likely a best runner up spot. If we get a bonus point win we have a very good chance of being in the top 4!

But if we lose, well, then it gets complicated!

Thoughts?

p.s. I see that we've also definitely qualified for the Amlin cup at the very least - which is fantastic!

I was looking at this yesterday, because the same applies to the Blues

I have a feeling Edinburgh will get a TBP next week and the Blues wont

Even though it will be Racing's reserves and they won't be interested?

I suppose with Parks at 10 you have been struggling for tries

RDW_Scotland wrote:Even though it will be Racing's reserves and they won't be interested?

I suppose with Parks at 10 you have been struggling for tries

A TBP is possible

If Racing select a weak team then hopefully Sweeney will start (since Halfpenny is kicking anyway) and they will be a bit more adventurous.

A TBP next week and we will be through with a home 1/4 likely.

I must admit I did find that surprising yesterday to see Parks start but not kicking.

No one expects LI to win which of course means we will also, i think I'd be right in saying that LI haven't conceded a try BP all year

rugbyman wrote:No one expects LI to win which of course means we will also, i think I'd be right in saying that LI haven't conceded a try BP all year

Thats good to hear

rugbyman wrote:No one expects LI to win which of course means we will also, i think I'd be right in saying that LI haven't conceded a try BP all year

What kind of team do you think he will put out since there is nothing to play for?

That is what we've got to remember in all this - this is a Scottish team so cannot cope with being favourites, or winning when it matters!

RDW_Scotland wrote:

rugbyman wrote:No one expects LI to win which of course means we will also, i think I'd be right in saying that LI haven't conceded a try BP all year

What kind of team do you think he will put out since there is nothing to play for?

That is what we've got to remember in all this - this is a Scottish team so cannot cope with being favourites, or winning when it matters!

The AP teams always seem to compete in the HC regardless of whether they have anything to play for. Same can't be said for the French. Racing to have a decent squad though and maybe their fringe players may feel like they have something to prove. We though we would cruise past Castres yesterday but it didn't happen, our own errors contributed but Castres putting up a fight was the main reason.

Hard to know who'll get the automatic qualification out of this group.

Edinburgh have shown that they are capable of scoring tries, the big question once again will be over their defensive frailties

Edinburgh vs Racing has been such a great competition... Wonderful rugby both games.

The aggregate was 75-71 with more than a dozen tries. Epic.

maestegmafia wrote:Edinburgh vs Racing has been such a great competition... Wonderful rugby both games.

Such a shame we didn't get to see more than just brief highlights of the first game

crying shame

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

maestegmafia wrote:Edinburgh vs Racing has been such a great competition... Wonderful rugby both games.

Such a shame we didn't get to see more than just brief highlights of the first game

It was a staggering occasion. I seriously doubt I with ever again go to to a more entertaining game.

The approach to the LI game will be very interesting, and a difficult one for Bradley to judge. With Delon Armitage and Topsy Ojo, LI have plenty wide finishing power and they'll be under no pressure. Also possibly a big game for Steven Shingler who will certainly be playing in front of Andy Robinson and will be eager to impress his future team mates (ahem.....).

I'll be watching through my fingers behind the sofa on this one. A win will see Edinburgh through, either in top spot or as a best runner up. I can't see 21 points not being good enough. If Edinburgh finish on 18 points with LBP, then I suspect it'll be the Amlin. Cardiff will certainly beat RM.

fES,

First and foremost they have to just go for the win as they know thats good enough for runners up slot at worst.

If they get a bit of steam up and are comfortable midway through 2nd half then yeah push for the BP to try and top group but win is imperative.

We do have the advantage that, since we are the last game on the Sunday, we will know exactly what we need to do to make it through. For example if a win will be enough to get qualification, irrespective of the result in Cardiff, it might differ the way we play as opposed to if we need to get a bonus point.

RDW,

A win will get you through anyway won't it, its just matter of group winner or runner up.

You could be playing Friday night it wouldn't matter as long as you win.

Oops no, I see what you mean now as Clermont and Quins etc could chnage things.

bedfordwelsh wrote:fES,

First and foremost they have to just go for the win as they know thats good enough for runners up slot at worst.

If they get a bit of steam up and are comfortable midway through 2nd half then yeah push for the BP to try and top group but win is imperative.

I wouldn't worry about the bonus point. What I meant by approach was how they would go about getting that win. Will they open up the game and fling it about, knowing that players like Ojo, Armitage and Thompstone are comfortably the equal of anything Edinburgh have in attack, or will they play the percentages slightly more, and look to the ever improving pack to do a job on London Irish.

bedfordwelsh wrote:RDW,

A win will get you through anyway won't it, its just matter of group winner or runner up.

You could be playing Friday night it wouldn't matter as long as you win.

Oops no, I see what you mean now as Clermont and Quins etc could chnage things.

Not sure about that - if Clermont and Quins get bonus point wins, and we don't we will be on the same amount of points I think. Gets confusing from there!

funnyExiledScot wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:fES,

First and foremost they have to just go for the win as they know thats good enough for runners up slot at worst.

If they get a bit of steam up and are comfortable midway through 2nd half then yeah push for the BP to try and top group but win is imperative.

I wouldn't worry about the bonus point. What I meant by approach was how they would go about getting that win. Will they open up the game and fling it about, knowing that players like Ojo, Armitage and Thompstone are comfortably the equal of anything Edinburgh have in attack, or will they play the percentages slightly more, and look to the ever improving pack to do a job on London Irish.

Can Embra do percentages? I thought all-out-attack was their plans A, B & C?

I think they just got to carry on doing what they have been doing, well other than leaving it so late like against Racing .

They have got this far and you can't ask for anything else other than to be finishing off at home.

I think they will beat Irish without to much trouble but after that I suppose its down to the Blues result as well.

RDW_Scotland wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:RDW,

A win will get you through anyway won't it, its just matter of group winner or runner up.

You could be playing Friday night it wouldn't matter as long as you win.

Oops no, I see what you mean now as Clermont and Quins etc could chnage things.

Not sure about that - if Clermont and Quins get bonus point wins, and we don't we will be on the same amount of points I think. Gets confusing from there!

RDW,

If Clermont get a BP win and Ulster get nothing then you still ok with a win as Clermont go through as group winners Ulster would be left on 19pts.

The Quins one, well not sure how they sort it out then, presiming Toulouse beat Gloucester if Quins get a win no BP then your ok, if they get a BP your both on 21pts.

Confuesed .com lol

bedfordwelsh wrote:

RDW_Scotland wrote:

bedfordwelsh wrote:RDW,

A win will get you through anyway won't it, its just matter of group winner or runner up.

You could be playing Friday night it wouldn't matter as long as you win.

Oops no, I see what you mean now as Clermont and Quins etc could chnage things.

Not sure about that - if Clermont and Quins get bonus point wins, and we don't we will be on the same amount of points I think. Gets confusing from there!

RDW,

If Clermont get a BP win and Ulster get nothing then you still ok with a win as Clermont go through as group winners Ulster would be left on 19pts.

The Quins one, well not sure how they sort it out then, presiming Toulouse beat Gloucester if Quins get a win no BP then your ok, if they get a BP your both on 21pts.

Confuesed .com lol

Good point. Still refusing to believe a Scottish team actually has a chance of qualifying!

If teams from different pools are equal on points at the end of it all, then it's decided on tries scored.

Currently Edinburgh have scored 13, Quins 10 and Clermont 25 (thanks Aironi).

So if Edinburgh win but finish second (on 21 points) and don't secure a BP, and Quins finish 2nd and do (also on 21 points), then it'll come down to tries scored. Quins would necessarily go onto 14 tries (at least) by virtue of the BP, so Edinburgh would need to score either two or three tries in failing to score four in order to better Quins. Quins will have a better points difference so if they are equal on tries, Quins go through.

If Clermont finish on the same points as either Quins or Edinburgh, barring a miracle at Connacht for Quins, Clermont would go through first choice.

So even if Edinburgh beat LI (no BP), and Quins Score more than 4 tries against Connacht Edinburgh still go out?

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:So even if Edinburgh beat LI (no BP), and Quins Score more than 4 tries against Connacht Edinburgh still go out?

Yes, I believe so, if they score less than 2 tries, in addition to your other condition above (plus ASM beating Ulster)

RuggerRadge2611 wrote:So even if Edinburgh beat LI (no BP), and Quins Score more than 4 tries against Connacht Edinburgh still go out?

If Edinburgh score 3 tries against LI and win the game, then Quins would need to score at least 6 tries away in Galway to come ahead of Edinburgh. If Edinburgh score 2, Quins need 5.

All this assumes Clermont get a bonus point win as well (although their tries would presumably already have them ahead of Quins and Edinburgh).

If Edinburgh win they are effectively through as they are 99% certain to be above either Ulster or Clermont

Thanks, geoff - don't suppose you've seen the precise combinations posted anywhere?

Well Edinburgh have 17 points so a win takes them to 21 points. The only way they could lose out is if Clermont get 5 points against Ulster at the same time as Ulster get 2 points.

Possible but extremely unlikely (bit like Racing - Edinburgh earlier in the tournament). If Edinburgh come second on 21 points they would lose out to Ulster and Clermont as they would both have scored more tries.

As I say incredibly unlikely - I honestly think Edinburgh do not have to look over their shoulder it is effectively in their own hands

So basically we want the Ulster vs Clermont game to be a low scoring damp squib, and similarly we want a howling gale in Galway to prevent the Quins scoring four tries, then we should be fine.

Agreed - can't see Edinburgh not qualifying if they win, regardless of whether they top the group or not.