Edwards says grandslam harder get than making world cup final

First topic message reminder :

Sean Edwards has said that its harder for a side to win the grandslam (i.e. go undefeated in the 6 nations) than make the world cup final. He also says that tri nations teams have an advantage outside of the cups due to preperation. Here's the link ( http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/jan/19/six-nations-harder-world-cup-final ). Now, I 'm sure this is a bit of attention seeking to highlight the up coming competition but does he have a point?

Is the grandslam harder? Maybe if you are England or France. I'm not sure if the same holds true for the others.

Italy. No 6 nations grandslam and have never made it to the quarter finals of the world cup. The chances of either are a fairy story at the moment.
Scotland. 1 Grand slam since 87 (26 attemps). Made the quarters 6 times (out of 7), and semi's 1. I'm saying WC final is probably harder.
Ireland 1 grandslam since 87. Made the quarters 5 times. Making a world cup final is harder for Ireland.
Wales 2 grandslams since 87. Made the quarters 4 times and semis 2 times. A world cup final is probably harder for Wales.
England 4 grandslams since 87. Made the quarters 7 times, semis 4 times, finals 3 times and won once. Maybe a grandslam is harder.
France 6 grandslams since 87, Made the quarters 7 times, semis 6 times, finals 3 times. A grandslam is harder for France.

It's also worth remembering that you usually have to beat at least one tri nations side to get to the final. That's a big call for the Celts given there record since the start of 87 - Wales (4 wins out of 56 games), Scotland (3 wins out of 44) and Ireland (6 wins out of 44).

The other question is whether the trinations teams have an advantage due to the timing of the tournement. My feeling is they actually are significantly disadvantaged. A fair comparision would be a tournement staged in April/May, with no tour of europe in November the year before. The provincial tournements could finish with their internationals, who could then have a proper break, go into camp, build up fitness, stength, conditioning and technique, play 3 or 4 games in March and hit the world cup. Less injuries, fresher minds and bodies, more muscle mass, etc. 3 more games in the pools before the knockout. That's pretty much optimal preperation for a tournement. On the other hand, the European teams would be coming in straight from end of their year, carrying injuries, tired, etc.

Your thoughts?

No he wasn't and you know it now too welshman.

englandglory4ever wrote:No he wasn't and you know it now too welshman.

PJHolybloke wrote:Since 1987, in World Cup years there have been 4 5/6N Grand Slams, and on three of those occassions the GS winners went on to reach the World Cup Final (France 87, England 91 and England 03) England won the GS in 95 and got knocked out in the QF that year. Incidentally, that was the only WC tournament not to feature a NH team in the final.

So if you win a GS in a WC year you have a 75% chance of reaching the WC final.

Since 1987, in World Cup years there have been 3 occassions where there has been no GS winner of the 5/6N, (1999, 2007 & 2011) but on each occassion a NH team has reached the final - France, England & France respectively.

So what can we conclude from that?

In WC years where there's no GS - there's a 100% possibility that a NH team will reach the WC final.

That seems to back up what Edwards has said.

However, if you look at the statistics another way, it suggests that if you're Ireland, Italy, Scotland or Wales - regardless ofd how you perform in the 6N, you've got 0% chance of getting to a WC final.

Statistics prove nothing unfortunately, but what we do know is that although Wales never looked like winning the GS last year, they only just fell short to France at the WC, and with a totally objective view, should still have beaten France Warburton or not.

Equally so, France never looked like beating Italy, let alone winning the GS, and yet they made it to the WC final and scared the shoite out of NZ. Who'd have thunked it?

On the whole, Edwards has the gist of it.

Great post PJ. Agree 100%

english warrior wrote:Well Petersea, i'm in total; agreement in one thing and thats the detestation of Charile Hodgson, and i for one would like him to retire from international Rugby, (about 9 years ago would have been good) because the mans a 'Bottler' and a liability. So total agreement. As to getting behind your team and giving unthinking, unquestioning support in the face of reality. Well, why not , the Welsh have done it for years.

As to self -confidence, nooo, i don't think so, as its more relief when England put a run together, as this has been one of the direst spells for England that i can remember, and i remember the 60's. So not guilty of that one, as i feel its more guilty of hope, but whats wrong with that eh!! Never considered England perfect, but do consider the England world cup winning side, of being the best NH side ever, and possibly the best ever, with only the 07 Springboks being near them.

As for you being being English, well you could have fooled me!! but hey i judge someone by what they say, so what kind of fool am i!!

I'm guessing that final question is rhetorical?

Peter is English.

Griff

P.J.Holybloke- Hoist by my own petard,

Not to worry EW, you're not the first and won't be the last.

PSBW changed his location during the WC when England went out and Wales were in the semis, I guess he's just got used to it since.

Sorry I keep forgetting I have it on still. To make it clear ( for the 1000th time) I am 1/8th welsh.... and Ive known about Wales all my life. Ive always wanted to be Welsh, which is why I played for England under 18s ...hang on.....

You're a michievous booger Peter, always have been, always will be.

But you do make me chuckle.

PJHolybloke wrote:Since 1987, in World Cup years there have been 4 5/6N Grand Slams, and on three of those occassions the GS winners went on to reach the World Cup Final (France 87, England 91 and England 03) England won the GS in 95 and got knocked out in the QF that year. Incidentally, that was the only WC tournament not to feature a NH team in the final.

So if you win a GS in a WC year you have a 75% chance of reaching the WC final.

Since 1987, in World Cup years there have been 3 occassions where there has been no GS winner of the 5/6N, (1999, 2007 & 2011) but on each occassion a NH team has reached the final - France, England & France respectively.

So what can we conclude from that?

In WC years where there's no GS - there's a 100% possibility that a NH team will reach the WC final.

That seems to back up what Edwards has said.

However, if you look at the statistics another way, it suggests that if you're Ireland, Italy, Scotland or Wales - regardless ofd how you perform in the 6N, you've got 0% chance of getting to a WC final.

Statistics prove nothing unfortunately, but what we do know is that although Wales never looked like winning the GS last year, they only just fell short to France at the WC, and with a totally objective view, should still have beaten France Warburton or not.

Equally so, France never looked like beating Italy, let alone winning the GS, and yet they made it to the WC final and scared the shoite out of NZ. Who'd have thunked it?

On the whole, Edwards has the gist of it.

Can't agree sorry. England and France have done. Ireland, Wales, Scotland haven't. A lot has to do with draw and some luck. Having said that the overall winning record at the cups is less than that of the big 5 (7/10 for Eng/Fra, 8/10 for Australia and 9/10 for NZ/SA). The also struggle to beat any of the these sides in the knock out stage (from memory Wales beat England in quaterfinals in 87 and that might actually be it). Winning a grandslam, means beating France and England, potentially whilst playing at home, or whilst they are restructuring, trialing, resting players etc.

No need to apologise for having an opinion blackcanelion, you're entitled to it.

WC games are played at "neutral" grounds (hosts excepted), and some of the pool games are pretty much gimmes. In the 6N all games are played either home or away and no game can be taken for granted.

It's not unusual for a team to reach the WC having lost a game, infact France managed to reach the final last year after having lost 2, to win the 6N GS a team has to win every game home and away, every game is a knockout.