Federer vs Del-Potro: face off, who you got?

Hello



Ok folks this is where it really begins for the big boys. Forget about the Almagro's, Tomic's, Dolgo's and all the others who have sadly but predictably fallen by the wayside; the marquee names are in town. This is where one of Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Tsonga, Del-Potro or Federer (you can forget about Big Bird and Ferru) will rise to the top and hoist that trophy on Sunday.

The scene is set, the warriors selected; the cauldron ablaze, the crowd expectant. It will be a shoot out of colossal proportions; no inch given, no quarter taken. The big boys are about to rumble down under.

So who ya got in JMDP vs TMF?

Personally I think this is a tough, tough one to call. Federer produced one of the most scintillating performances in slam memory, ever, when he mullered the Tower of Tandil in OZ 3 years ago, dishing out bagels like there was a famine on. Since then of course we've have had the epic in Paris followed by the de-throning of The Mighty Fed in New York. But injuries and loss of form followed for the Argentine. Yet, slowly, but surely he seems to be hitting top form once again. His destruction of Koli in the last round was something to behold.

Both players of course have huge weapons, technically different, both effective nonetheless: the serve and the FH. I think one of the keys to this match is territory. Who can control the centre of the baseline and force their opponent to retreat and concede ground. Federer loves to stand on the baseline and dictate, taking the ball early and creating angles. JMDP has the ability to bully Federer from the baseline if his monster FH is clicking. He can hit through the court with those flat strokes and force Federer to defend, thus pushing him further back, and in particular reducing the attacking potency of his BH wing. For Federer the serve will be key, as well as the BH slice to force the big man to play a lot of low balls. He also needs to mix up his play and come to the net to finish off points. It is probably wise for him to try and avoid a baseline slug-fest. As usual federer will be keen to take time away from his opponent.

My prediction: Federer in four tight sets, but I wouldn't be surprised if JMDP pulled it off in five.



emancipator - universal tennis correspondent, reporting from OZ, 265/19/18264843654 ancient wise ones calender (corresponding to 22/01/2012 Gregorian) MAY THE SERVE BE WITH YOU

Fed's slice and improvised shots are going to need to be clicking really well if he's going to win. His slices are going to have to be well placed as well, no good just slicing the ball straight back as Del Potro as well as most players nowadays can deal with the slice and Fed will still get hit off the court. It's been an interesting journey for Fed this AO and it gets more and more so the further he gets. His return will need to be better as well, in particular he'll need to come over the back hand more, I didn't see the Karlovic match but maybe that provided some practice?

As for calling the match, I think Fed will do something amazing and walk away with it, reminiscent of back in the day before predictably capitulating to Nadal in the following semi. So Fed in 3.

Del Potro hardly ever gets bothered by slice shots, don't know where that analysis came from. Just because he is tall does not mean he struggles with it. Just like Berdeych. Del Potro can run around then under those slice shots and hit winners all day, especially when it's cross court slice to his backhand which will be the case as a DTL slice is a low percentage shot. We saw what he is capable of doing to Federer in past matches. He is hitting cleanly and his match fitness has improved. Any thing less than a spectacular serving from Federer means Del Potro will win in 3 sets. Thanks to Annacone, Federer has actually become a good volleyer and his net play will be crucial but Del Potro is good at the net too. I think Del Potro will win in 4 sets.

I have a feeling Del Potro will win in four sets as well. Del Potro has come in somewhat under the radar at this tournament and has quietly moved through to the quarters. His appetite for success will be huge after his injury problems deprived him of big time tennis and he won't be overawed. Key will be the first set. Whoever wins it I think wins the match.

I disagree SA.

The low deep slice is always a good strategy against tall players because they generally don't have the movement to run around their BH side to spank a FH. Of course trying to hit a penetrating shot of the BH off a low ball is much harder than a waist to shoulder height ball. JMDP has good movement for such a tall guy but not nearly to the same degree as Nadal or Murray. If he tries to run around too many of these BH's he'll find himself way out of court; he doesn't have the speed or agility of Murray or Nadal to then recover and cover the open court.

Simple_Analyst wrote:Del Potro hardly ever gets bothered by slice shots, don't know where that analysis came from. Just because he is tall does not mean he struggles with it. Just like Berdeych. Del Potro can run around then under those slice shots and hit winners all day, especially when it's cross court slice to his backhand which will be the case as a DTL slice is a low percentage shot. We saw what he is capable of doing to Federer in past matches. He is hitting cleanly and his match fitness has improved. Any thing less than a spectacular serving from Federer means Del Potro will win in 3 sets. Thanks to Annacone, Federer has actually become a good volleyer and his net play will be crucial but Del Potro is good at the net too. I think Del Potro will win in 4 sets.

Excellent analysis. I can't see Fed's sliced backhand bothering Del Potro. Fed needs to be aggressive with his net game. Australian Open is not always as interesting at this stage. I am looking forward to this match and the next for the winner.

It depends how he places his slice. If he just slices it more or less to him then its not going to work, he'll have to play angles with it. He's probably not going to get an opportunity to play an effective slice every shot so his topspin back hand best be working.

I think Federer will have the slight advantage. If it were clay I'd call it for Dl Potro in a heartbeat but nobody can handle and return pace like TMF. In 2009 JMDP lost the match he was better in (Roland Garros) and won the one he wasn't (USO).

It'll be a good match though, if he wins I fancy JMDP to go to the final.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting at all that the slice becomes his main shot of the BH wing. That would be way too predictable. of course he has to use it appropriately for example when he is drawn out wide. Often Federer tries to drive the BH from deep and it lands short allowing his opponent to dictate the rally, he may opt to play deeper slices that stay low.

Simple_Analyst wrote:Del Potro hardly ever gets bothered by slice shots, don't know where that analysis came from. Just because he is tall does not mean he struggles with it. Just like Berdeych. Del Potro can run around then under those slice shots and hit winners all day, especially when it's cross court slice to his backhand which will be the case as a DTL slice is a low percentage shot. We saw what he is capable of doing to Federer in past matches. He is hitting cleanly and his match fitness has improved. Any thing less than a spectacular serving from Federer means Del Potro will win in 3 sets. Thanks to Annacone, Federer has actually become a good volleyer and his net play will be crucial but Del Potro is good at the net too. I think Del Potro will win in 4 sets.

What if Fed plays as well as he did today with the same serve percentage, I think 42%, then do you think that will be enough against Del Potro? Or do you think the quality of Del Potro's groundstrokes be superior to what Tomic's were today and more sustained causing Fed to need more?

42%? The match will be over in 1 hour 5 minutes. Tomic does not seem to hit the ball hard but generates enough power. Del Potro hits the ball harder and generates even more power. He is strong on both wings and his ground strokes on a good day is unplayable.

Interesting then. Fed might need even more than he had today then to deal with Del Potro's considerably better ground strokes. I thought he dealt with some of Tomic's best pretty well.

Holding his first few service games will be crucial and difficult if he starts the way he did today as Del Potro seems ready to go all the time. I don't think Fed can afford a slow start but I'm sure he's aware of this.

Fed at 42% would have no chance. However there's no way he will serve at that level unless he has a dodgy back agin, in which case it'll be over quickly.

I think he made the first serves he did get in count. Oh and one thing the commentators picked up on was that Tomic was guessing at the direction of the serve and moving early. I noticed in Fed's first service game Tomic went out wide prematurely but correctly and just put it down to good reading.

It's a close call. I pick Fed to win this in four sets, but on another slower surface I think Delpo would have a slighty edge on him right now.

I wish Del Boy pulls it off in tight 4, but those who pick Del Boy over Fed will be surprised tomorrow by Fed's play, Its gonna be Fed in 3.

Reasons
1]The slice is keeping very very low, those who watched Tomic's matches could have seen that, its gonna be a real problem for Del Boy.
2]Del Boy's form is getting better and better but no where near the accurate hitting of USO 2009.
3]Fed was caught by surprise of Del Boy's attitude , mental strength and groundstrokes in USO 2009, he never faced a beasty game like that before, this time around Fed knows what Del Boy will bring to court and he under Annacone would have strategies devised already.
4]This year is for Fed, and He is motivated to have a better streak than what Nole had last year, so expect the form and attitude to continue in the next match too if faces Nadal.

Cracker of a contest in waiting, but saying all that Del Boy will not make it easy and unless Fed plays his A-game an upset is very likely, the wolves are smelling blood tomorrow.

I do acknowledge the power of Delpo and this is definitely the toughest quarter Fed possibly could have but it's a myth that he's a nightmare opponent for Fed. He did beat Fed twice in 2009 but at the TMF Fed was already qualified after winning 1 set and in the US open final fed basically won the match until Delpo was pulling off shots like Djoko did at MP last year. And he was doing that not once but repeatedly, it won't work out that way every single time when they meet.
The slice is effective against Delpo, because he's not going to hit a winner from that shot, and that's concern number one against Delpo. And like all big guys: they don't like to be forced to move to the net. But he will against Fed, a lot
I have faith in Fed, he likes Delpo's approach, likes his flat game and knows his variation can be too much for Delpo.

There's one problem: will Fed's back keep up? We've seen the back becomes an issue the second week in the slams for a couple years now.

I'll be supporting Delpo all the way if he beats Fed. I think Fed was right by saying that without that wrist injury Delpo could have been the number one player by now. I hope he makes it.

Good post GP.

I agree with you in that Federer has always been the nightmare opponent for big hitters because of his ability to manoevre them around the court and the versatility that he brings. Traditionally he has also been second to none at handling pace. Unfortunately it's hard to predict which Fed will show up these days and the back is always a cause for concern. The low serving percentage against Tomic is worrying since that is usually one of the first indicators of a back problem. Furthermore, as brilliant as Del-po played at the USO, Fed should really have closed that match out in str8s.

In short, if the real Federer turns up, he should come through this encounter.



emancipator

emancipator wrote:Good post GP.

I agree with you in that Federer has always been the nightmare opponent for big hitters because of his ability to manoevre them around the court and the versatility that he brings. Traditionally he has also been second to none at handling pace. Unfortunately it's hard to predict which Fed will show up these days and the back is always a cause for concern. The low serving percentage against Tomic is worrying since that is usually one of the first indicators of a back problem. Furthermore, as brilliant as Del-po played at the USO, Fed should really have closed that match out in str8s.

In short, if the real Federer turns up, he should come through this encounter.



emancipator

hmm i think the low serving percentage was due to the fact Fed was going for broke, his ace total proves that. He felt that Tomic wasn't attacking his second serve so why not bombing the first?

But you're right, you never know how it relates to the back.

The first serve percentage is worrying me, he needs to get more first serves in against Nadal and Djokovic so he can get the upper hand and finish the point earlier. His serve percentage in the AUS Open final in 09 was the reason he lost that match, think it was 50 percent over 5 sets?
Its a mircale it went that far with that stat.

Honestly Fed will have to be serving lights out to win this in 3, it's really unlikely for this to go only 3 sets.

AO 2009 Fed won 6-3 6-0 6-0

I think Federer favourite but a competitive match.

I can't see why the serving is so uber-critical. It's not like Federer can't rally or defend. And he hardly has a weak second serve (!). I think if Federer gets as far as Nadal or Djokovic that's when the first serve % becomes important. Against anyone else, he can win without it on a good day.

Was that comment to me, hawkeye?

That scoreline was before Delpo had even registered a GS SF, totally different player

Fed's game rarely ever falls below a certain level. DP is a blow-hot blow-cold type. So, who wins depends more on how DP will blow.

Leff wrote:Fed's game rarely ever falls below a certain level. DP is a blow-hot blow-cold type. So, who wins depends more on how DP will blow.

So you think that it is all on DP's racket? or that DP's best is better than fed's best?!?!?!?!?

LuvSports! wrote:

Leff wrote:Fed's game rarely ever falls below a certain level. DP is a blow-hot blow-cold type. So, who wins depends more on how DP will blow.

So you think that it is all on DP's racket? or that DP's best is better than fed's best?!?!?!?!?

Oh yea Fed just makes up the number

As he did with Tomic, look for Federer to slam the door shut on Del Potro.

Federer in 3 for me, though I don't say it thinking it's the ONLY possible outcome, just my pick from the choices abounding.

I think although he "has nothing to lose," JMDP will want this match a little more than he should and think that some nerves will come into play.

JMDP cannot win this in 5 sets, he is going to have to win 2 of 1st 3 sets to make a push in this match. Stay tuned......

I have to go with Federer in 4 sets. Del Potro has yet to pull off a really big result since coming back from injury and I'm not sure he's fully there yet in terms of being back to his 'best'. He's still been slightly erratic, which is understandable when you've been out that long. This may be the moment when he shows he is well and truly back, but I think Federer will prove too savvy.

Positively
I'd argue that even at his best, Del Potro was somewhat erratic even during the course of an individual match (something he has in common with most of the genuine big hitters like Tsonga or Berdych), but that at the USO he had enough spells where he was playing well and the big shots were landing in to allow him to win.

I think a Federer win in 4, perhaps with a tie breaker each in there. However, wouldn't be that surprised with a Del Potro win.

I'll have Rog in 4.

Federer in five.

I had Delpo to win this event,so Delpo is 4.Then on to Nadal and Djokovic...

So, it's Fed vs Rafa, yet again. Rafa leads 7-2 vs Fed in majors, but Fed has the momentum here.

Fans, pull your daggers out for another knock-out fight.

Time for pulmonary experts to blow out their air bubbles.