AUS open day 9

First topic message reminder :

Hello



It is almost time people.

Today (or tomorrow) is the start of the heavyweight contests.

First up: Fed vs Del-Po. Expected start time around 04:30

followed by The Nadull vs Big Bird around 08:30

So who's gonna stay up and who's gonna set their alarm(s)?

My children I shall be here, faithfully casting a critical eye over proceedings.



emancipator - tennis historian and intergalactic ambassador for UNICEF

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Is it still going? I assumed Nadal would have won by now.

It's not over until the fat lady sings, and at the moment she has fallen asleep on the sofa.

Nadal tried to get the double break but Berdychs big serves have dug him out of the various potential double break holes he has found himself in.

With Federer v Nadal matches, Nadal has the advantage - one of which appears to be "mental" - he seems to know Federers thoughts and gets inside his thoughts. Hopefully Annacone has given Federer a new tactic / strategy to tackle Nadal.

Nadal was vulnerable early on in this Berdych - Nadal match, and Djokovic has shown Nadal can be beaten regularly.

Nore Staat wrote:

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Is it still going? I assumed Nadal would have won by now.

It's not over until the fat lady sings, and at the moment she has fallen asleep on the sofa.

Nadal tried to get the double break but Berdychs big serves have dug him out of the various potential double break holes he has found himself in.

Methinks the fat lady is up off the sofa and going through her warm-up exercises

Double break and Game Set and Match moments away. Nadal has three match points on Berdychs serve - and there we have it. Well played Nadal Well played Berdych - but you need to work on your game to beat Nadal. One of the issues is he doesn't read the game as well as he could. He misses things on the court that he should taka advantage of. I guess this is called on court awareness.

Nadal will be somewhat a bit sore after that match. He will know he got out of jail in that 2nd set. But that is what champions are made of. They take those windows of opportunity when they present themselves. He had one point in that TB to take it and he did.

This is what i like to see, the crowd clapping for Berdych even though he was booed in the previous match. He gave them value for money and played very well.

Well played Nadal and Berdych.

Nadal lacks composure when he has the upper in teh middle of a rally.


A bit calmer and he coudl have won that one a bit easier. Easier said than done but that's where Djoko is excelllent. No panick!

Nadal might pass Federer but he won't pass Djoko or Murray.

Federer and Nadal in the semi's. Not sure where I would put my money.

Well that is the easiest result to predict in tennis.

If they play in morning sun like today against Delpo so a fast court, Fed will have Nadal in 3.

Simple_Analyst wrote:Well that is the easiest result to predict in tennis.

So what are you predicting SA?

The killing stat! Berdych: Break Point Conversions

2 of 13 = 15 %

Jahu wrote:If they play in morning sun like today against Delpo so a fast court, Fed will have Nadal in 3.

They will of course play in the night session but that could work for Federer (less moonballing).

Ten, whats better then, less moons or faster cond. as Nadal aint fast no more.

I think Fed has more chance in cooler less bouncy conds.

He was deadly at the last WTF cause the bounce was lower, though the conds there were slow.

But you are right, there might not be much in it. Just that Nadal loves those high bouncing courts under hot conds. It's just a matter of time before Fed's timing goes off and Nadal can start to make him run...instead of doing the running himself.

I think Nadal will fancy his chances against Federer because of the mental side of that match up. He also has a very favourable head to head against Murray.

Djokovic is the only one who seems to cause Nadal big problems. Of course Djoko may have to get through both Ferrer and Murray to get there, that is a very tough task in itelf. I am sure if Nadal does get through Fed, he will be praying for Murray or Ferrer as his opponent.

No guarantees in any of the upcoming matches for any player.

Berdych was one point away from being 2 sets and a break up. You cannot miss those chances v Nadal.

Tenez wrote:I think Fed has more chance in cooler less bouncy conds.

He was deadly at the last WTF cause the bounce was lower, though the conds there were slow.

But you are right, there might not be much in it. Just that Nadal loves those high bouncing courts under hot conds. It's just a matter of time before Fed's timing goes off and Nadal can start to make him run...instead of doing the running himself.

yep i agree.

If djoko plays nadal in the final, I predict a str8 forward three set victory for the Djoker. It's the least exciting matchup between the top four at the moment.

Fresh as a daisy after 4 hours in a boiling heat at a slam, but 1 hour of play indoors is too demanding for our Spanish friend..

He's like the hulk of tennis, but in contrast with the original hulk, this version can control the transformation..

Emancipator, I wouldnt go as far as to say a straigt forward three set victory for Djoker against Nadal if they met in final. It would hardly be a dull match up !! The US Open final 2011 was one of the best and most physically intense matches of the past 10 years and was regarded by most as one of the top 3 matches of 2011. Hardly a dull encounter and certainly not an easy win.

No doubting that djokovic would be favourite but beating Nadal in a grand slam is never a certainty for any player...He is a 10 time grand slam champion with a never give up attitude. Give the guy credit where it is due !!

They both need to get to final first of course which in itself is far from a certainty

I think nowadays for at least the top 4, its all how they show up for that day.

Sure we can crunch stats and H2H, but not much is certain, and all top 4 with niggling body problems, its a tough one to call. I can say that the one who gets the first set, will get the match, in all upcoming AO matches.

gallery play wrote:
He's like the hulk of tennis, but in contrast with the original hulk, this version can control the transformation..

Genius! It's called being slam fit. Then you have the post AO period where there is a shoulder injury break in Nadal's February agenda. We cannot say we were not told. It was announced before the AO.

Tenez wrote:

gallery play wrote:
He's like the hulk of tennis, but in contrast with the original hulk, this version can control the transformation..

Genius! It's called being slam fit. Then you have the post AO period where there is a shoulder injury break in Nadal's February agenda. We cannot say we were not told. It was announced before the AO.

yeah it all seems a bit dodgy to me

I forgot about Nadal's injury break. It's a good thing he didn't skip this slam like some were suggesting as he may be able to add to his slam count.

Jahu wrote:I think nowadays for at least the top 4, its all how they show up for that day.

Sure we can crunch stats and H2H, but not much is certain, and all top 4 with niggling body problems, its a tough one to call. I can say that the one who gets the first set, will get the match, in all upcoming AO matches.

True and the most important factor for Federer is winning that first set...then he has a chance.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:I forgot about Nadal's injury break. It's a good thing he didn't skip this slam like some were suggesting as he may be able to add to his slam count.

His fans may have said that...but his fans are those who know him least.

Tenez wrote:
His fans may have said that...but his fans are those who know him least.

Love is blind

One of the more tiresome sights is Nadal fans eating up the latest injury scare garbage.

Should of gone to Specsavers...

Tenez wrote:Just shows on that last point how much teh ball slows down towards the end. Nadal coudl pull a FH that woudl not have been possible with faster conds....especially on Berdych's FH.

Nadal could pull a forehand that would not have been possible for anyone else around in any conditions you mean?

I think Tenez and some fellow Nadal fans might be misinformed about this.
He said he would take Feb off to practise, because in December he has a shoulder injury and did not get much chance to. He said his shoulder was OK by Abu Dhabi.

I think Federer really needs the victory come Thursday. Wimbledon being the only Slam he has beaten Nadal. One on the HC's outdoors is essential.

Purely going on what went on in the semis today my money would be on Roger Federer. He will be much the fresher as Nadal slogged it out for well over four hours in what was a real energy-sapping battle. I can see Fed chomping at the bit to get the first set on the board and if he does that I can't see Rafael Nadal having the stamina to pull it back.

CaledonianCraig wrote:Purely going on what went on in the semis today my money would be on Roger Federer. He will be much the fresher as Nadal slogged it out for well over four hours in what was a real energy-sapping battle. I can see Fed chomping at the bit to get the first set on the board and if he does that I can't see Rafael Nadal having the stamina to pull it back.

All valid points but this is Nadal, and he has shown stamina in exactly the same circumstances in the past

Well we shall see. I just have a sneaky feeling it will be one marathon too far especially if Fed wins the first set. Nadal's best chance for a win is to do it in straight sets.

You know what Mats just said:

1. I'll go with Fed wining over Nadal tomorrow
2. If 2012 Fed was playng with 2007 Fed, the 2012 one would not lose one set to 2007 Fed.

I got to agree, Fed does need the win more, not least because the head to head doesn't look so bad as 17 - 9 does, at least winning would take him to 10: double digit figures, which is a lot more respectable.

Also, it's very easy to knock Fed when he hasn't beaten Rafa in a grand slam match since 2007 which is 4 1/2 years ago. Sure Fed has beaten Nadal in other tournaments, but it's the latter stages of the grand slams where players are judged. His only victories, as legendkillar has pointed out, came on grass, this would really diversify Fed's record with Nadal.

I personally think Fed has got it good, whether he wins or loses, I'm fairly sure Djokovic will be in the final, and let's be honest, Fed can rest assured Nadal's path to the title is blocked, either way (and as a Fed fan, that's a dream come true)!

I got to watch about half of the match (it was on very early!) vs Delpo and Fed seemed to make a good job of him. Fed is the only one not to have dropped a set so far but I do think against Nadal this means next to nothing: he didn't drop a set en-route to the Wimbledon final in 2008, and then lost 3 and the title. A good indicator as others have pointed out (with these two), is that it is nearly always the case that in their grand slam matches, whoever takes the first set wins, nearly always wins (the only exception was RG Final 2006, where Nadal's strength on clay could overturn this advantage). Why it makes so much difference, I don't know, but perhaps it's the mental impact it has on both players?

Anyway, I am looking forward to this match tomorrow!

Murray could beat Djokovic.

Has Murray ever beaten Djokovic in a grand slam? I can't say I know, but I don't think it really matters, Djokovic's best tournament is the Aussie Open, the only person I can see stopping Djokovic is Federer, that's just the truth. We saw it last year, and we will see it again (hopefully), this year.

ChequeredJersey wrote:

Tenez wrote:Just shows on that last point how much teh ball slows down towards the end. Nadal coudl pull a FH that woudl not have been possible with faster conds....especially on Berdych's FH.

Nadal could pull a forehand that would not have been possible for anyone else around in any conditions you mean?

I mean the ball slows down so much towards the baselie nowadays, that Nadal get to hit while on faster conds like it was 10 years ago, the ball would have past him and he woudl not even have tried to put his racquet on it.

But Murray having tasted AO final a few times, this year I would hope he would give it all in against Djoko, with a little Czech lager mixed in from Lendl.

Jahu wrote:You know what Mats just said:

1. I'll go with Fed wining over Nadal tomorrow
2. If 2012 Fed was playng with 2007 Fed, the 2012 one would not lose one set to 2007 Fed.

Isn't this what I have been saying for a while? Well it occured to me when I watched the old 2006 Fed play. I don;t think he is going to get much better now though and his decline could be quick. But so far so good...he is in teh semi again of a grand slam.

Jahu wrote:But Murray having tasted AO final a few times, this year I would hope he would give it all in against Djoko, with a little Czech lager mixed in from Lendl.

Actual alcohol might calm his nerves too

bogbrush wrote:Fed just pressed the GOAT button.

Must be a nice option to have, kind of like the tennis equivalent of a hyperdrive.

I avoided the scores and watched the matches on repeat in the last few hours, worked really well. They even cut out the boring bits for me. I'm not getting up in the middle of the night or taking time off work until the semis.

That will be tomorrow then.

I am taking off