Betting on the 6 Nations!

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This is a wee thread for people to indicate what they think are good VALUE bets for the 6 nations, it shouldn't be baised on patriotism, IE a Welshman* saying Wales for grandslam, but what bets are Value to make money.

It's ok (to carry on the example) for a Welsh person to indict good Welsh bets because they are more familiar with the team, players etc than other teams, but it should be for the purpose making a profit, rather than something they hope will happen.

To start I'll state that I don't believe that betting on England gets good value. I have nothing against England in betting terms and would bet on them if I thought I could make a profit, but because Engalnd has such a big betting population that the weight of money that goes on them drives down the odds to below what they should be, Ireland is similiar to a lesser extend. When this happens to odds on Englands opposition usually increase to maybe a little bit above what they should be, making the better bet to oppose England.

IMO the bet of the first round has to be Scotland to beat England at 13/8, (England are 8/13 to win).

Ok so England have the better player, and England did just beat them in the World cup, but I believe that Scotland have keep most of their team together, are at home and will be a different animal, England on the other hand have a lot of new players in their squad and may take time to gel, and this is the first game and they may not have had time to gel yet.

Therefore i see the game as near 50:50 with maybe England as slight favourites, however the odd given don't reflect this, and it is therefore my opionion that Scotland are a value bet to win at 13/8.

* sub in any nation you please, as I just picked one for the example, and have nothing against the Welsh, evn those that bet on Wales for a grand slam

Think I'll have to go france to win it... England 2nd place

Does anyone know what odds Italy were offering before their defeat of France last year in the 6N? You´d think bookies would lower their odds for opponents of France because you never quite know which French team will turn out. But even so, those must have been still pretty yummy odds.

Scotland getting a Triple Crown might be juicy odds. Maybe with so many injuries to England, their odds have lengthened for a Triple Crown as well as a Grand Slam. They could well be worth having a punt on.

But your crazy money return relies mainly on Italy and Scotland I think. Wales and Ireland are both good enough but inconsistent but no doubt don't offer as high a return as the two aforementioned teams.

I will always have bet on Wales and best outcome was in 05 when I had £10 on then at 33/1.

This year unless you go for Scotland or Italy at 80/1 or 1000/1 respectively then you want make a lot on the others -

France are 9/2
Wales 6/1
England 8/1
Ireland 12/1

Thats for the Slam.

I think this year spread betting may be best chance to get some money.

kia,

Scotland are 20/1 for the crown so worth a tenner yeah.

Individual games will be best, sure some people had the guts to bet on Italy beating France last year and were laughing at end.

I'm not a betting man so what is the margin between 9/2 and 6/1 ?

Does it mean if I put £2 on France I get £9 back and £6 back if I bet a £1 on Wales or is it not that simple ?

Cymroglan wrote:Does it mean if I put £2 on France I get £9 back and £6 back if I bet a £1 on Wales or is it not that simple ?

It's not quite that simple

If you put £2 on France you get your £2 back, plus another £9. A £2 bet on Wales returns £2 + £12.

In NZ we've figured out that decimal odds, like the metric system, work better
(In NZ you'd be quoted $5.50 on France and $7.00 on Wales)

You've convinced me bedfordwelsh to have a flutter. I like those odds for a Triple Crown. Still miserly odds when you think about it but not a bad return for a tenner.

If Ireland lose to Wales, then the odds might be worth putting a punt on them to beat France away.

I am never sure how the 9/2 sort of odds work but the 6/1 type I can do.

If you have a tenner on Wales at 6/1 and they win then you get £60 winnings plus your initial £10 stake so £70 in total.

Kiwi I much prefer the TAB system too.

Makes me nostalgic for the Super Sub Kees Meuws. I don't know how much money I made on him betting that he'd score a try but it was an awful lot. How I miss him. It's fun freely drinking at a bar watching the game knowing you´ll easily cover the bar tab at the end. Woodcock tries but he's no Midas like Kees was.

Which makes me think, the odds for a try in this Calcutta Cup match at Murrayfield must be attractive. Put it on a winger and they´d go up even more.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Kiwi I much prefer the TAB system too.

Makes me nostalgic for the Super Sub Kees Meuws. I don't know how much money I made on him betting that he'd score a try but it was an awful lot. How I miss him. It's fun freely drinking at a bar watching the game knowing you´ll easily cover the bar tab at the end. Woodcock tries but he's no Midas like Kees was.

Which makes me think, the odds for a try in this Calcutta Cup match at Murrayfield must be attractive. Put it on a winger and they´d go up even more.

Backrowers are always a good shout for try scorers usually get upwards of 12/1 for the likes of Haskell, Faletau and Heaslip etc.

Anytime try scorers are worth punt to and have usually managed to at least cover my bets thanks to Ickle, gods know what I will do this year now.

Right bookies see France as being 9/2 Wales being 6/1 does that mean France are clear favourites or is it closer than that? I'm not even sure if it makes them favourites.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Kiwi I much prefer the TAB system too.

Makes me nostalgic for the Super Sub Kees Meuws. I don't know how much money I made on him betting that he'd score a try but it was an awful lot. How I miss him. It's fun freely drinking at a bar watching the game knowing you´ll easily cover the bar tab at the end. Woodcock tries but he's no Midas like Kees was.

Which makes me think, the odds for a try in this Calcutta Cup match at Murrayfield must be attractive. Put it on a winger and they´d go up even more.

Nice work on Kees Kia (I think he's finally retired after his wee run out in the NPC last year)

I managed to put $10 on Daryl Gibson to score the opening try in Super 12 1998 (or 1999?) at $17 for a cool $170 collect. And best of all I was working security at Lancaster Park that day standing just off the dead ball line at the Hadlee Stand end when he dotted down right in front of me .

Cymroglan wrote:Right bookies see France as being 9/2 Wales being 6/1 does that mean France are clear favourites or is it closer than that? I'm not even sure if it makes them favourites.

9/2 implies that the Bookie thinks that France have a 18% chance of success. 6/1 implies that the Bookie thinks that Wales have a 14% chance, while 8/1 gives England an 11% chance. So yes France are favourites, though not by much. I'd guess that "No slam" is probably the overall favourite option, though Bedford didn't put the odds for that up.

Cheers for that Kiwi even I could understand when it's put like that

I hope you slipped him a tenner!

Also another good shout sometimes is betting on a draw. I remember a friend bet on a Super12 draw (it was something like 22-22) and he got a handsome return.

The odds might be lower for the 6N but a draw with Italy and say Wales might pay way more than a win.

Kiwireddevil wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:Right bookies see France as being 9/2 Wales being 6/1 does that mean France are clear favourites or is it closer than that? I'm not even sure if it makes them favourites.

9/2 implies that the Bookie thinks that France have a 18% chance of success. 6/1 implies that the Bookie thinks that Wales have a 14% chance, while 8/1 gives England an 11% chance. So yes France are favourites, though not by much. I'd guess that "No slam" is probably the overall favourite option, though Bedford didn't put the odds for that up.

Just checked, you can get 8/11 for "No slam" - that implies a 57% chance that no-one will manage it.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I hope you slipped him a tenner!

Also another good shout sometimes is betting on a draw. I remember a friend bet on a Super12 draw (it was something like 22-22) and he got a handsome return.

The odds might be lower for the 6N but a draw with Italy and say Wales might pay way more than a win.

I had a good week that week, I placed $70 worth of bets for the work betting syndicate, all 8 bets came in, and I cleared $300. We used to put in $5 each week and take turns to lace the bets. Being stats geeks, we kept records, in 6 years I was in the syndicate I broke even, while as a group we lost 15% of the $ we bet. Given that the "average" punter at the TAB loses 25% of their money, not too bad.

Unless you are prepared to bet big then its the outside bet thats always worth a punt.

Many people called me a fool when I said I had a tenner on us in 05 at 33/1 but as I sat in the pub in Cardiff that day with £340 quid in pocket they wern't laughing then.

I will always have one bet with my heart had Wales at 50/1 for the WC which at Semi stage looked great shout lol but then I always have a sensible bet as well.

I remember one year late 90s when we were shockingly poor I went in to a bookies in Richmond on day of the game and put a bet on Wales to much to the joy of Mr Bookie as he knew my money was his, then I said ok what are the odds on Wales not scoring today - he wouldn't even give me odds thats how bad we were.

I could get odds for Elvis being found alive on the moon with Lord Lucan but not odds on Wales getting nothing .

I have a £5 on

France to win (the tournament) at 2.5 and
Wales to win at 3.5

So, I make a profit if either wins

I also have £5 on Ireland and Scotland to win next weekend though.

I supose it depends on what you are basing the bets on, On previous world cup form, or on HC form.

If you are basing your bets on HC form. Even though i am English you would have to back on France, or Ireland to win.

Wales have their toughest game first up - Win that one and another GS is probable

Kiwireddevil wrote:

Cymroglan wrote:Right bookies see France as being 9/2 Wales being 6/1 does that mean France are clear favourites or is it closer than that? I'm not even sure if it makes them favourites.

9/2 implies that the Bookie thinks that France have a 18% chance of success. 6/1 implies that the Bookie thinks that Wales have a 14% chance, while 8/1 gives England an 11% chance. So yes France are favourites, though not by much. I'd guess that "No slam" is probably the overall favourite option, though Bedford didn't put the odds for that up.

Cymroglan, an easy way to do it is break it down, so 9/2 compared to 6/1 would be 4.5/1 compared to 6/1.

It gets harder with odds like 13/8 but for this just do 8 into 13.
Goes once and 5 over, which equals 1 and 5/8,
5/8 is the same as 1/2 (4/8) + an 1/8,
so we have the 1 plus the 1/2 plus the 1/8, which is 1 + 0.5 + 0.125 = 1.625
so 13/8 = 1.625/1.

I took a small bet on Ireland a few weeks ago, which i considered great value at 5:1
I think France should be favourites now tthough based on quality of players and fixtures, but the odds are terrible for them. Theres 4 games they are well capable of losing, and just one of those would see them not win. I dont consider the return enough to take a risk on that.
I dont expect Ireland to win, but id consider them my second favourite to win. The bookies had them as fourth when i placed the bet, seemed a steal to my thinking.

I think some are missing the point this is about Value bets. Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler seams to understand, you can still win at bad odds, but is it worth the risk?

For the example I believed was a Value bet.

I think that Scotland have about a 45-50% chance of beating England, (I think most 606v2ers would agree with this estimate) but bookies odds suggest are 13/8 suggesting Scotland has only a 38.1% of winning, since are estimate is higher than the bookies it makes it a worthwhile bet.

For those that said France to win, the odds are 9/2 which equals a 18.2%
chance, do you recon France have an 18.2% or higher chance of winning to make this a good bet?

A bad bet can still come in and make money, and a good bet can still lose, but if we keep picking out good bets that we think are better than the bookies odd's, we should profit in the long run.

France at 9/2 is for the GS though,

they are 5/2 for the tournament - which is still decent odds for the favourite.

I made £30 profit on £20 bets on last weeks HC

So, hopefully my luck will continue for the 6N.

wales606 wrote:France at 9/2 is for the GS though,

they are 5/2 for the tournament - which is still decent odds for the favourite.

I made £30 profit on £20 bets on last weeks HC

So, hopefully my luck will continue for the 6N.

Really? ooh thats actually pretty decent for the GS...hmmm

I hate betting