Ireland v Wales 2010 - Ireland v Wales 2012

Ireland 27 - 12 Wales, the final game for Wales at the temporary home of Irish rugby, Croke Park. It was one of the worst performances I have seen from Wales since the early naughties. It may not have been a particularly high scoring match, but Wales offered nothing in attack and the game was pretty much going Ireland's way from the very start.

I would like to see how different the starting XV is likely to be from the one that took the field 2 years ago.

2010 Wales XV

15. Lee Byrne
14. Leigh Halfpenny
13. James Hook
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Shane Williams
10. Stephen Jones
9. Richie Rees
8. Gareth Delve
7. Martyn Williams
6. Jonathan Thomas
5. Luke Charteris
4. Bradley Davies
3. Adam Jones
2. Matthew Rees
1. Paul James

2012 Likely Wales XV

15. Leigh Halfpenny (also kicker)
14. George North
13. Jonathan Davies
12. Jamie Roberts / Gavin Henson
11. Alex Cuthbert
10. James Hook
9. Mike Phillips
8. Toby Faletau
7. Sam Warburton
6. Dan Lydiate / Ryan Jones
5. Ian Evans
4. Bradley Davies
3. Adam Jones
2. Huw Bennett
1. Paul James

I can see around 10 or 11 different players or players in different positions from the game 2 years ago. The squad, the mentality, the fitness and the confidence are ridiculously different than that of 2010. That's a big change in such a small time frame.

POSITIVES:

Back row: Completely different and infinitely better. More powerful, faster and more aggressive with our current backrow missing very few tackles. Faletau's tackle to missed tackle ratio is world class. A backrow of Williams, Thomas and Delve was never going to be on the winning team against Ireland. Thomas and Williams would have been great in 2003 and Delve would have been good if he had a consistent run of international matches.

MONSTER BEAST WINGERS:

I think we have the opportunity to nullify Ireland if they try to get the ball wide. As BOD is out this season, they will rely on good quick ball getting to their wings. North at 6'4" and Cuthbert at 6'6" can smash them all day. Wales have recently relied on the likes of Roberts to bash their way via midfield, but this gives Wales a whole new dimension. Keep the beasts on the wings and bring back sleight of hand of Henson or the pace of Jon Davies. Last time round it was Halfpenny and Williams on the wing. A combination that Ireland seemed to be able to cope with most of the time. Halfpenny likely to start at 15 and playing very well there, Cuthbert deserves a chance to start at 11.

A DIFFERENT OPTION AT FULL BACK:

In the 2010 match, Lee Byrne got sin binned and we conceded 2 first half tries. He has shown some form for Clermont lately, but he is a MONUMENTAL liability. He either players phenomenal or like a donkey. I have lost count at the amount of sin bins he has had during Six Nations matches. Halfpenny is playing fantastic for the Blues and it's great having someone at 15 with a gigantic boot. Also to the delight of Wales and the viewing public, he seems to get more of the ball and action playing at 15 instead of 14. Also he can come up in the backline when Wales attack and he has the gas to get back into position if we lose possession.

MIKE PHILLIPS:

Slow service sometimes, but world class everywhere else. If there was ever a man to sum up the 2 victories over Ireland in 2011, it would be him. We definitely need quick ball to Hook, but also the intensity he showed in 2011 is where we can really grab the game by the scruff.

SOME SORT OF STRENGTH IN DEPTH UP FRONT:

Wales have not seemed much weaker without Gethin Jenkins and I think Paul James has been an excellent substitute. After the bizzare world cup Huw Bennett had, I think it would be insane to bring Matthew Rees back into the starting lineup after playing little rugby in last few months. If Bennett can throw straight, he starts.

IAN EVANS:

Has been very unlucky with injury over the last few years, but was an integral cog of Wales 2008 championship win. He is one of the players I have wanted to see involved as much as possible over the last few seasons, but bad luck has denied that. His massive height should mean we don't lose out much lineout ball, even without the likes of Charteris.

======================================

WEAK POINTS:

CENTRES:

In recent years Wales have had some riches at centre with the likes of Henson, Shanklin, Roberts, Hook, JD2 and much more. Unfortunately some of the style of attack has been quite stale and we don't have the luxury of Shanklin at 13 anymore. Also Henson, possibly being the most talented back out of the lot, hasn't been able to shine for almost 4 years due to injury and other silly off the field things. Wales need more than a battering ram technique and need to try and beat the man more (JD2 try vs Ireland being the perfect example). Also players like North coming in looking for work will eventually bring riches.

FLY HALF:

Irrespective of the Warburton red card, Wales probably would have beaten France if Priestland was at 10. He seems to get the outside backs going better than any 10 has done for a generation. His kicking isn't perfect, but I don't think he would have the shockers that Jones or Hook had. I think Priestland is far more calm, cool and collected and could have possibly nailed a dropgoal over against France even if he had missed other crucial kicks. I think the most important think if James Hook starts is he just relaxes and gives good ball to 12. He has a good kicking game when he's on, but I think we should retain possession where possible. Hook should also run when it's on as he has great feet to beat the man. I don't want to see a conservative Hook, because he is worried about repeating his mistakes of the world cup. I think the result could depend on this selection more than anything else.

REVENGE:

Ireland will play out of their skin for the first 20 minutes. Wales need to act as if it is the last 5 minutes of the match and they are one point in front. Let Ireland wear and tire themselves out trying to get an early score on. When BOD scored in Cardiff early on in the game last year I thought it was curtains, but then Wales composed themselves and knuckled down. Even though the Phillips try wasn't a try, Ireland were caught off guard and the match was still a close one. Wales must do whatever it takes to keep the ball in Ireland's 22 for the first quarter of the match and avoid going a score or two behind. If Ireland get 1 or 2 early tries, I think momentum and the 16th man will spur them on to grind out a win, whether it be a close win or a stuffing.

PREDICTION

Whoever Gatland picks, the team will resemble nothing of 2010 in selection or style of play. As long as Halfpenny takes the kicks and Hook doesn't bottle it, I think Wales will match the forwards and have an advantage in size and power over the backs which will nullify their attacking options.

Ireland 16 - 20 Wales

Why have you bolded Adam Jones when he actually did play in 2010? He would have earned us a penalty try (at least) in that game but the decision did not go our way for some reason. I think the back three will likely be Byrne, North and Halfpenny.

Sorry that was a mistake, fixed now.

I think the selection on Byrne will hinge on whether Cuthbert gets picked or not. Halfpenny has been playing very well at 15 and is far more talented than Byrne. It would be stupid to swap Halfpenny to 14 now.

Cuthbert is playing well and scoring tries so the risk is worth taking.

Also interesting to see how awful the defence was in 2010. Rees was a joke at 9 and Hook playing at 13 seems to just invite opposing players to run through.

Well yes, obviously Byrne at 15 will hinge on picking Cuthbert. I think he (Cuthbert) will be a bit out of his depth up in Dublin. I believe that to be our best back three, with Cuthbert on the bench. You're right about the defence being awful in 2010, I remember it well. All we offered in attack was a Hook switch with Jamie Roberts. Sexton, D'Arcy and BOD gang tackled him everytime.

I would not be surprised if Henson got selected to start.

Roberts injury is iffy and Henson might sure up defence and offer the midfield some other than "battering ram".

walesneedanewmidget wrote:I would not be surprised if Henson got selected to start.

Roberts injury is iffy and Henson might sure up defence and offer the midfield some other than "battering ram".

So Gatland is going to rely on Henson to get Wales back line going,How can you rely on a player like Henson who as argly played any rugby in the last 2 years, suddenly come in and be World Class?


I think Wales will struggle in Ireland, even though they looked realy well/fit at the (WORLD CUP) they do have a few injurie problems. So i think that Ireland will be to strong for Wales.

majesticimperialman wrote:
So Gatland is going to rely on Henson to get Wales back line going,How can you rely on a player like Henson who as argly played any rugby in the last 2 years, suddenly come in and be World Class?

I doubt it. Who said this btw?

walesneedanewmidget wrote:I would not be surprised if Henson got selected to start.

Roberts injury is iffy and Henson might sure up defence and offer the midfield some other than "battering ram".

I would be incredibly suprised if Henson started in the midfield at the moment. As for his defence well that has been the one really big worry for me. At Toulon and Sarries he simply didnt tackle and his defensive positioning was way off where it was. Since he has been back in Wales, his defensive alignment has been better (good even at full back) but when he was in the midfield a few weeks ago the Blues werent relying on his defence at all and pushed him out to 13 on the defensive ball. Im not worried about his speed of thought or his hands, even his big boot from hand looks to have returned after the groin injury. HOwever I am worried about his defence. Henson at Full back wouldnt suprise me at centre well I would be stunned.

walesneedanewmidget wrote:Ireland 27 - 12 Wales, the final game for Wales at the temporary home of Irish rugby, Croke Park. It was one of the worst performances I have seen from Wales since the early naughties. It may not have been a particularly high scoring match, but Wales offered nothing in attack and the game was pretty much going Ireland's way from the very start.

I would like to see how different the starting XV is likely to be from the one that took the field 2 years ago.

2010 Wales XV

15. Lee Byrne
14. Leigh Halfpenny
13. James Hook
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Shane Williams
10. Stephen Jones
9. Richie Rees
8. Gareth Delve
7. Martyn Williams
6. Jonathan Thomas
5. Luke Charteris
4. Bradley Davies
3. Adam Jones
2. Matthew Rees
1. Paul James

2012 Likely Wales XV

15. Leigh Halfpenny (also kicker)
14. George North
13. Jonathan Davies
12. Jamie Roberts / Gavin Henson
11. Alex Cuthbert
10. James Hook
9. Mike Phillips
8. Toby Faletau
7. Sam Warburton
6. Dan Lydiate / Ryan Jones
5. Ian Evans
4. Bradley Davies
3. Adam Jones
2. Huw Bennett
1. Paul James

I can see around 10 or 11 different players or players in different positions from the game 2 years ago. The squad, the mentality, the fitness and the confidence are ridiculously different than that of 2010. That's a big change in such a small time frame.

POSITIVES:

Back row: Completely different and infinitely better. More powerful, faster and more aggressive with our current backrow missing very few tackles. Faletau's tackle to missed tackle ratio is world class. A backrow of Williams, Thomas and Delve was never going to be on the winning team against Ireland. Thomas and Williams would have been great in 2003 and Delve would have been good if he had a consistent run of international matches.

MONSTER BEAST WINGERS:

I think we have the opportunity to nullify Ireland if they try to get the ball wide. As BOD is out this season, they will rely on good quick ball getting to their wings. North at 6'4" and Cuthbert at 6'6" can smash them all day. Wales have recently relied on the likes of Roberts to bash their way via midfield, but this gives Wales a whole new dimension. Keep the beasts on the wings and bring back sleight of hand of Henson or the pace of Jon Davies. Last time round it was Halfpenny and Williams on the wing. A combination that Ireland seemed to be able to cope with most of the time. Halfpenny likely to start at 15 and playing very well there, Cuthbert deserves a chance to start at 11.

A DIFFERENT OPTION AT FULL BACK:

In the 2010 match, Lee Byrne got sin binned and we conceded 2 first half tries. He has shown some form for Clermont lately, but he is a MONUMENTAL liability. He either players phenomenal or like a donkey. I have lost count at the amount of sin bins he has had during Six Nations matches. Halfpenny is playing fantastic for the Blues and it's great having someone at 15 with a gigantic boot. Also to the delight of Wales and the viewing public, he seems to get more of the ball and action playing at 15 instead of 14. Also he can come up in the backline when Wales attack and he has the gas to get back into position if we lose possession.

MIKE PHILLIPS:

Slow service sometimes, but world class everywhere else. If there was ever a man to sum up the 2 victories over Ireland in 2011, it would be him. We definitely need quick ball to Hook, but also the intensity he showed in 2011 is where we can really grab the game by the scruff.

SOME SORT OF STRENGTH IN DEPTH UP FRONT:

Wales have not seemed much weaker without Gethin Jenkins and I think Paul James has been an excellent substitute. After the bizzare world cup Huw Bennett had, I think it would be insane to bring Matthew Rees back into the starting lineup after playing little rugby in last few months. If Bennett can throw straight, he starts.

IAN EVANS:

Has been very unlucky with injury over the last few years, but was an integral cog of Wales 2008 championship win. He is one of the players I have wanted to see involved as much as possible over the last few seasons, but bad luck has denied that. His massive height should mean we don't lose out much lineout ball, even without the likes of Charteris.

======================================

WEAK POINTS:

CENTRES:

In recent years Wales have had some riches at centre with the likes of Henson, Shanklin, Roberts, Hook, JD2 and much more. Unfortunately some of the style of attack has been quite stale and we don't have the luxury of Shanklin at 13 anymore. Also Henson, possibly being the most talented back out of the lot, hasn't been able to shine for almost 4 years due to injury and other silly off the field things. Wales need more than a battering ram technique and need to try and beat the man more (JD2 try vs Ireland being the perfect example). Also players like North coming in looking for work will eventually bring riches.

FLY HALF:

Irrespective of the Warburton red card, Wales probably would have beaten France if Priestland was at 10. He seems to get the outside backs going better than any 10 has done for a generation. His kicking isn't perfect, but I don't think he would have the shockers that Jones or Hook had. I think Priestland is far more calm, cool and collected and could have possibly nailed a dropgoal over against France even if he had missed other crucial kicks. I think the most important think if James Hook starts is he just relaxes and gives good ball to 12. He has a good kicking game when he's on, but I think we should retain possession where possible. Hook should also run when it's on as he has great feet to beat the man. I don't want to see a conservative Hook, because he is worried about repeating his mistakes of the world cup. I think the result could depend on this selection more than anything else.

REVENGE:

Ireland will play out of their skin for the first 20 minutes. Wales need to act as if it is the last 5 minutes of the match and they are one point in front. Let Ireland wear and tire themselves out trying to get an early score on. When BOD scored in Cardiff early on in the game last year I thought it was curtains, but then Wales composed themselves and knuckled down. Even though the Phillips try wasn't a try, Ireland were caught off guard and the match was still a close one. Wales must do whatever it takes to keep the ball in Ireland's 22 for the first quarter of the match and avoid going a score or two behind. If Ireland get 1 or 2 early tries, I think momentum and the 16th man will spur them on to grind out a win, whether it be a close win or a stuffing.

PREDICTION

Whoever Gatland picks, the team will resemble nothing of 2010 in selection or style of play. As long as Halfpenny takes the kicks and Hook doesn't bottle it, I think Wales will match the forwards and have an advantage in size and power over the backs which will nullify their attacking options.

Ireland 16 - 20 Wales

I honestly think:

back 3 will be North Byrne Halfpenny

If Roberts is out he will go for Beck

Rees will start at Hooker.