Return of the AP - Round 14 Preview

First topic message reminder :

Well it has been a month since the last round of matches as, at club level anyway, we put our Premiership hats back on. A quick reminder of the table:

1) Quins 47pts
2) Sarries 44pts
3) Saints 36pts
4) Tigers 36pts
5) LI 33pts
6) Chiefs 31pts
7) Sharks 30pts
8) Glaws 29pts
9) Warriors 25pts
10) Barf 24pts
11) Wasps 21pts
12) Falcons 12pts


Friday, 10 February 2012

Sale v Worcester, 20:00

Neither team are likely to be dramatically affected by international call-ups. Both teams have big forwards but you have to feel that Sale have far more penetration in the backs.

Sale to win by +7


Saturday, 11 February 2012
Bath v Newcastle, 14:15
Bath have taken the opportunity over the last couple of weeks to give their first team a run out and gain some form against Saints/chiefs reserves. Two thumping wins will fill them with confidence and it is hard to see Falcons being a threat.

Bath with a TBP


Exeter v Leicester, 18:00
The season started badly for Tigers knocking on the kick-off and conceding a try within 90secs. That defeat sparked a dismal run that saw a squad decimated by WC call-ups and injuries really struggle. They will be looking for revenge but Sandy Lane is a tough place to go. My head says a narrow win for Exeter, by heart says:

Leicester by 6


Gloucester v Northampton, 14:15
Injuries and call-ups see Saints badly hit in the second row and back row. Ashton may not be selected again, but the absence of Foden and Dickson will also cause problems. Gloucester have been inconsistent and will be missing the bulk of Jim Hamilton. With Wood and Harden looking to get under the big Saints props, Gloucester should be able to secure enough good ball to enable whichever backs are fit (and not held back by Lancaster) to showcase their talents.

Gloucester by +7



Harlequins v London Irish, 14:00

Quins have not started 2012 well and have lost the last 3 matches, the first of which would have been heartbreaking as Connacht knocked them out of the HC. Just as winning can become a habit, so can losing. Quins may not be as badly hit by internationalk call-ups as they may have expected but even so may struggle against LI who are starting to see their sick-list shrink a touch.

assuming Evans has a good kicking day, Quins to win by 5.


Sunday, 12 February 2012
Wasps v Saracens, 13:15

Wasps are in complete dissary, on and off the pitch. Injuries are mounting and only Falcons abject performances in teh League will give them any comfort. If they are ever to beat the reigning champions meeting them on a day when they will be missing around 10 first choice players is the best chance.I just cannot see it though.

Sarries to grind out a 4pt win.

Yeah but our back row if going to consist of one experienced ex-England vet, a young flyer potential 7 for England and one of the best flankers in the RWC even playing in a "weaker" side. Are you going to win Amy quick ball? Our backs are not going to be the best defensively for sure but Lowe is back and we have a Lion on one wing and if Evans is on something close to top form I think you guys will struggle in the backs

Sheridan back for Sale which is interesting. I hope he remains injury free

We will line up in the backs...

15. Homer
14. Ojo
13. Joseph
12. Hape
11. Tagicakibau
10. Bowden
9. Allinson

I cannot see our backs struggling to be honest, that is as strong a backline as anywhere in the league right now.

As I said, our backrow worries me, in particular at the breakdown, where I think you will have the better of us, but if we can get any sort of decent possession, be it off the back of scrums, off of lineout, or even scraps, then we have the potential to cause you lots of problems with that 9-15.

Should be a good open game, as the weather forecast is cold but fair, can see it being a reasonably high scorer.

Quins team is up:

15. Ross Chisholm
14. Tom Williams
13. Matt Hopper
12. Tom Casson
11. Sam Smith
10. Nick Evans
9. Danny Care

1. Mark Lambert
2. Joe Gray
3. James Johnston
4. Olly Kohn
5. George Robson (C)
6. Tom Guest
7. Luke Wallace
8. Nick Easter

Our form has been patchy since December so I could see this going either way. Depends on the forwards really and if we let LI get in to it or not.

Ozzy3213 wrote:We will line up in the backs...

15. Homer
14. Ojo
13. Joseph
12. Hape
11. Tagicakibau
10. Bowden
9. Allinson

I cannot see our backs struggling to be honest, that is as strong a backline as anywhere in the league right now.

As I said, our backrow worries me, in particular at the breakdown, where I think you will have the better of us, but if we can get any sort of decent possession, be it off the back of scrums, off of lineout, or even scraps, then we have the potential to cause you lots of problems with that 9-15.

Should be a good open game, as the weather forecast is cold but fair, can see it being a reasonably high scorer.

Ozzy surely if that was true there would be at least one London Irish back in the EPS? The London Irish backline is decent but in my opinion I would say the full strength Quins,Saracens,Saints,Gloucester and Leicester ones are stronger.

Ok admittedly we all know Hape has played for England but we all know how that went...

Monye and Maurie still injured? That's a shame, those are big players

Maybe by right now he was excluding Englan players?

Also no Lowe?

beshocked, did you read what I said? I said right now, as in while the 6 Nations is on.

And congrats to Robson getting the captains armband.

Here's the bench:
16. Chris Brooker 17. Aston Croall 18. Tim Fairbrother 19. Tomas Vallejos 20. Will Skinner 21. Karl Dickson 22. Rory Clegg 23. George Lowe

Irish full line up...

15. Tom Homer; 14. Topsy Ojo*; 13. Jonathan Joseph; 12. Shontayne Hape*; 11. Sailosi Tagicakibau*; 10. Dan Bowden; 9. Darren Allinson; 1. Clarke Dermody (Captain)*; 2. David Paice*; 3. Faan Rautenbach*; 4. Nick Kennedy*; 5. Bryn Evans*; 6. Matt Garvey; 7. Kieran Roche; 8. Richard Thorpe

Replacements: 16. Brian Blaney; 17. Max Lahiff; 18. Paulica Ion*; 19. Ed Siggery; 20. Marland Yarde; 21. Delon Armitage*; 22. Adrian Jarvis; 23. Ross Samson

Only 4 forwards on the bench due to injuries which could be a worry. Looking at the Quins pack I would say Quins should have the better of the breakdown, and possibly better ball carriers, but I would expect our props to take the scrum and the I would imagine both teams will secure their own lineouts.

Handy having Delon and Marland to bring off the bench against tired legs in the final quarter though.

I suppose that's true chequeredjersey. If you exclude all the England players and those injured then yes the London Irish backline looks a lot more favourable!

London Wasps team to play Saracens, Sunday 12th February, 13.15, Adams Park
15 Hugo Southwell
14 Richard Haughton
13 Dom Waldouck
12 Riki Flutey
11 Elliot Daly
10 Nick Robinson
9 Nic Berry
1 Tim Payne
2 Tom Lindsay
2 Ben Broster
4 Ed O’Donoghue
5 Marco Wentzel ( c)
6 Richard Birkett
7 Jonathan Poff
8 Billy Vunipola
Replacements
16 Vladislav Korshunov
17 Zak Taulafo
18 Simon McIntyre
19 Heinz Koll
20 Sam Jones
21 Joe Simpson
22 Ryan Davis
23 Tom Prydie

Saracens line-up
15 Alex Goode
14 Duncan Taylor
13 Chris Wyles
12 Adam Powell
11 James Short
10 Nils Mordt
9 Peter Stringer
1 John Smit ©
2 Jamie George
3 Carlos Nieto
4 George Kruis
5 Hayden Smith
6 Justin Melck
7 Andy Saull
8 Jackson Wray
Replacements
16 Schalk Brits
17 Rhys Gill
18 Petrus du Plessis
19 Hugh Vyvyan
20 Will Fraser
21 Neil de Kock
22 Joel Tomkins
23 Michael Tagicakibau


Looks like Wasps are able to put a mostly full strength team against Saracens. If they can't beat this Saracens side they might have well give up now. Despite missing 15 players the Sarries side looks good enough to beat Wasps.

Saracens need to focus on pummeling that Wasps pack into submission. Plenty of power in the Saracens frontrow.Brits and Gill from the bench to keep up the pressure.

Nieto vs Payne should be fun!

Leicester Tigers (v Exeter Chiefs, Sandy Park, Saturday 6.00pm)
15 Geordan Murphy (c)
14 Horacio Agulla
13 Manu Tuilagi
12 Anthony Allen
11 Alesana Tuilagi
10 Toby Flood
9 Sam Harrison
1 Marcos Ayerza
2 George Chuter
3 Julian White
4 Ed Slater
5 George Skivington
6 Steve Mafi
7 Julian Salvi
8 Thomas Waldrom

Replacements
16 Rob Hawkins
17 Boris Stankovich
18 Logoviii Mulipola
19 Graham Kitchener
20 Ben Woods
21 James Grindal
22 George Ford
23 Matt Smith

Exeter Chiefs
15 Phil Dollman
14 Gonzalo Camacho
13 Nic Sestaret
12 Jason Shoemark
11 Matt Jess
10 Ignacio Mieres
9 Haydn Thomas
1 Brett Sturgess
2 Neil Clark
3 Hoani Tui
4 Tom Hayes (c)
5 Aly Muldowney
6 Tom Johnson
7 James Scaysbrook
8 Richard Baxter

Replacements
16 Chris Whitehead
17 Ben Moon
18 Craig Mitchell
19 James Phillips
20 Ben White
21 Kevin Barrett
22 Gareth Steenson
23 Bryan Rennie


A pretty much full strength backline for Leicester. No excuses if they lose.

If everyone was fit and available how many of that starting XV would be first choice beshocked?

At a guess I would say Nieto, Short or Wyles and Goode.

Whilst it is a side with lots of good players in, it is not anywhere near a full strength Saracens side, and if Wasps cannot beat them at home, then they are in a bit of trouble for the rest of the season I would say.

Yes that's what I mean Ozzie. Spot on, just those 4 though Saracens use a lot of rotation. Wyles is used a lot as an utility man.

Yeah, that's why I went for Short or Wyles as I presume that 9. Wiggy 10. Hodgson 11. ??? 12. Barritt 13. Farrell 14. Strettle 15. Goode whould be the first choice backline if all fit and available and playing in a cup final tomorrow.

Ozzy correct though no one has really well and truly nailed down that 13 spot.

Farrell isn't really a 13 but he's there to put him in the XV. Wyles is not a 13 either.

Tomkins is being earmarked as the future 13 for Sarries but needs more gametime.

quote]A pretty much full strength team for Leicester. No excuses if they lose..[/quote]

Full strength if you ignore the eight missing players (no Youngs x2, Parling, Deacon, Castro, Cole, Croft, Crane) 6 of which would be definite starters. Should get a result though you're right about that. With only eight missing we should be looking to capitalise whilst Sarries and Quins are hamstrung, given our form away from home this season a home semi final really is needed!

Sam I corrected myself. I meant full strength backline. Hence my edit before you posted.

correct me if I am wrong but you wouldn't play Cole and Castro at the same time.

Ayerza is your first choice loosehead correct? Chuter has been your first choice hooker since the beginning of time. Would Crane definitely start instead of Waldrom?

You have good strength in depth like Saracens hence you should win.

I would be disappointed if the front five Saracens picked doesn't smash Wasps. More power and more class.

beshocked wrote:Sam I corrected myself. I meant full strength backline. Hence my edit before you posted.

correct me if I am wrong but you wouldn't play Cole and Castro at the same time.

Ayerza is your first choice loosehead correct? Chuter has been your first choice hooker since the beginning of time. Would Crane definitely start instead of Waldrom?

You have good strength in depth like Saracens hence you should win.

I would be disappointed if the front five Saracens picked doesn't smash Wasps. More power and more class.

Hence why he said 6 of the 8 are starters. But Cole/Castro would almost also do a 50/30 split.
Got to ask why Saracens feel they need Smit and Brits, its just overkill to my mind!

Overall predictions:

Sale vs. Worcester- Sale are at home and their team looks too good for Worcester. Cueto to prove a point and score. Win by more than 7 for Sale, no 4BP.

Bath vs Newcastle- Bath to win but Falcons to put up a fight. Bath win by less than 7.

Exeter vs Leicester- Exeter are very strong at home but the Tigers have too strong a side. Tigers win by more than 7, no 4BP

Gloucester vs Saints- Gloucester are strong at home but Quins showed the way to beat them there earlier in the season. Even missing Dickson and Foden Saints have got the players to edge this one even against a full Gloucester team. Saints by less than 7

Quins vs Exiles- Quins backrow to win it here, but not comfortably. Quins win by about 7, 4BP for both teams

Wasps vs Sarries- Sarries are better than Wasps on paper in almost every position for this fixture. Shame Wade's out. Sarries by more than 7, I doubt there'll be a 4BP though

Ayerza is your first choice loosehead correct? Chuter has been your first choice hooker since the beginning of time. Would Crane definitely start instead of Waldrom?

Chuter is hanging onto the shirt by his finger nails, if Youngs hadn't have picked up his injury when he did then Chutes would have already lost it. Youngs offers more aggression, scrummaging and ball carrying ability, there is no comparison in terms of handiling and footballing skills it was only lineout throwing where Chuter was marginally better and Youngs was catching fast. Hawkins has also been playing rather well of late. Crane has always been preferred to Waldrom. I said 6 starters with Youngs and one of Cole/Castro on the bench but all would certainly be playing either starting or off the bench if fit/available.

Almost depressing that other than the LV Cup slaughter against Gloucester this is the closest we've had to a full strength team this season (domestically at least) and I'm still not happy with it.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

beshocked wrote:Sam I corrected myself. I meant full strength backline. Hence my edit before you posted.

correct me if I am wrong but you wouldn't play Cole and Castro at the same time.

Ayerza is your first choice loosehead correct? Chuter has been your first choice hooker since the beginning of time. Would Crane definitely start instead of Waldrom?

You have good strength in depth like Saracens hence you should win.

I would be disappointed if the front five Saracens picked doesn't smash Wasps. More power and more class.

Hence why he said 6 of the 8 are starters. But Cole/Castro would almost also do a 50/30 split.
Got to ask why Saracens feel they need Smit and Brits, its just overkill to my mind!

What do you mean peter seabiscuit wheeler about Smit and Brits? Do you mean why do they have both in this match or do you mean in the Saracens squad?

If you mean the match, Brits is coming back from injury so isn't ready to start. Also it's great to see all 3 of our top hookers in the 23! (as well as of course our 4th choice starting for the England U20s).


Sam will you ever be happy with the side?

Sam will you ever be happy with the side?.

Possibly not until we change the backs coach, hire a new defence coach and remove some of the dead wood. Thankfully some of the dead wood is being cleared out in the summer but we still looked under powered in some departments. Good to see Harrison emerging as a fine scrum half though.

From a Quins point of view i'm predicting:

Sale v Worcester- Worcester to win a dog of a match. Wuss by 5
Bath v Newcastle- Bath beat Newcastle but more error strwn then of late. Bath by 12 no tpb.
Exeter v Leicester- Leicester have nearly their full team. Tigers by 7
Gloucester v Northampton- Glos by 12
Harlequins v London Irish
Wasps v Saracens- Wasps find a bit of form somewhere, wasps by 8.

Sale v Worcester- Sale to win comfortably - Sale by 10


Bath v Newcastle- Bath to ease to victory but no try bonus - Bath by 10

Exeter v Leicester- With a full strength backline Tigers should prevail. Leicester by 7

Gloucester v Northampton- Home advantage here. Also expect Saints to suffer from losing key players. Gloucester by 10

Harlequins v London Irish - Quins to put their losing streak behind them with a comfortable 10 point victory at home. The pack should be too strong despite the backs looking evenly matched..

Wasps v Saracens- Saracens' pack should be too strong for the Wasps pack. Saracens by 7.

Fourie just gone off after 13 min. Shoulder injury. Only just got back

Well what a shocker that was, Sale just did enough to win it in the end but wont have drawn too many new fans to the game with that performance.

Perry looked sharp for Wuss at least.

13-10 to Irish at half time and it is fecking freezing at the stoop.

Yes Williams you hero!

Final score 30-23. Great game of rugby at The Stoop. Two teams looking to run the ball. Quins superior back row the difference in the end with Easter man of the match.

Only popped in and out but great game and great result, fantastic try from JJ, what a player. Nice to see that a mostly second string back row is still up there as a force!

How's Joseph done on his return? He was on great form before the injury and sometimes they don't come back a s strong for a good while.

He scored a stormer of a try, didn't see much of the game but what I saw was good

Was very good today and scored a great try.

Apparently Quins are in talks with Chabal- I know we need some more grunt in the pack but I'd give the bearded one a miss personally, he has looked pretty out of sorts for a few years and he seems to be acting rather beyond his station recently too

ChequeredJersey wrote:Apparently Quins are in talks with Chabal- I know we need some more grunt in the pack but I'd give the bearded one a miss personally, he has looked pretty out of sorts for a few years and he seems to be acting rather beyond his station recently too

Please tell me it's a joke!!! A. we don't need another loose forward B. Chabal is poop!!

Great game from both teams today, some brilliant rugby in the cold and loads of young English talent on show. Also another game showing just how much England misses Easter and Care.