Scotland RWC2015 Seeding

Given Scotlands continued inability to start winning and the world ranking of 11 are we looking at another World Cup where we're 3rd seeds for a group. Can't say I'd be looking forward to having to get past New Zealand (1) and Wales (5) to get out the group stage. Even worse if Wales swap places with SA.

I can see Scotland climbing up the ratings, but I think that they will struggle to get above 9th.

We literally have to win all of our tests this summer and any internationals this November. Ambitious? Just a bit!

It looks to me like its all but impossible even more concerning is that a loss to Fiji in the summer and the wooden spoon in the 6N could leave us struggling to be in the top 12 - now that would be really depressing.

I'm assuming that to have any chance at all we're going to have to beat Ireland and Italy in the 6N followed by wins in Fiji, Samoa and Oz and then beat one of NZ or SA at Murrayfield in the Autumn.

So when was the last time we managed to win 7 tests from 8?

Looking at it from the Argentinian angle, I can't see them winning any games in the 4N. Are they taking part in any summer tours this year? They rarely get a win during the Autumn internationals unless they play us (Italy aside). I think their performances this year could work in our favour. It's vital that Scotland get 3 wins during the summer tour. Given that we play Oz on the Tue and they play Wales on the Sat, there's a chance that we'll be able to scrape a win against the OZ reserve team. It's a long shot but it's possible. The games against the Pacific Islands will be crucial. During the Autumn internationals getting 2 wins would be the main aim.

Even more pressing is our performance in the remaining 2 games. It's absolutely vital that we don't lose to Italy. That would make the job of climbing into the top 8 even more difficult.

Current rankings look like this.

7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(8) IRELAND 79.44
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(10) SAMOA 75.81
11(11) SCOTLAND 74.94
12(12) ITALY 73.33

funny to think a year and a bit ago we hit 6th in the world, oh to still have that luxury!

I think we can win our last two games in this years six nations, possibly against Australia, definitely Fiji and Samoa, possibly South Africa and definitely Tonga. That leaves a bout of neumonic plague for Richie and co. and we're in.

Can't see us beating New Zealand, the SRU have done their best again by putting us up against New Zealand first therefore we can have a good summer tour build up some optimism then spend weeks in advance getting overexcited about the first Scotland team to beat the All Blacks and then get absolutely HAMMERED before "famously" beating South Africa and narrowly beat a south pacific side at Murrayfield.

I don't think I'll be alive to see the day we beat New Zealand, and I have at least 50 years ahead of me...

We need to have a day when all their star players are injure, all ours are fit they play at 70% we play at a 110% and then we might just sneak it

I am fully confident that by the time the draw comes up Scotland will be seeded 4th.

Don't ask me how, or ask me to put any more on it or even ask me to sober up - I won't

In reality, we need to perform this weekend to have any real chance to start the process. Lose and Italy will be a tense and nervey affair, with me beer drinking and cursing

I think Scotland CAN be seeded come 2015. Doesn't mean I think they will!

This is too depressing

If I understand right, Scotland's games from now on are, in order:

End of Six Nations - Ireland (A); Italy (A)
Summer Tour - Samoa (A); Fiji (A), Australia (A)
Autumn Internationals - South Africa (H); Tonga (H); New Zealand (H);

I can see Scotland winning one of their final two 6N fixtures. I would be surprised though not shocked if they won both or lost both.

If the RWC is anything to go by, I'd have Scotland as favourites against Fiji, though Samoa in Samoa will be a far tougher proposition. Can't see a win against the Aussies Down Under.

In the autumn I can see you beating Tonga at Murrayfield. The Boks game is winnable though something tells me Scotland won't do it twice in a row over SA, just my gut feeling. Can't see you beating the All Blacks anywhere.

If I were to stick my neck out this is what I'd say:

Ireland (A) - L
Italy (A) - W
Fiji (A) - W
Samoa (A) - L
Australia (A) - L
Tonga (H) - W
South Africa (H) - L
New Zealand (H) - L

That makes only one win over a side currently ranked above Scotland. If I'm spot on with those (which I probably won't be), I can't see that being enough to make 8th in time, sorry

The games in order are as follows

Ireland (A) - L
Italy (A) - W
Australia (A) - W
Fiji (A) - W
Samoa (A) - W
New Zealand (H) - L
South Africa (H) - W
Tonga (H) - W

That's what'll happen. A shock away win against Oz because they play their first test against Wales on the Saturday (our game is on the Tuesday). Lose to NZ but play SA in the pissing rain and grind out a victory a al 2010. Top it off with beating Tonga to set us up nicely in the top 8. Keep in mind that Arg play NZ, Oz and SA twice each in the 4 nations. No points for them there. They're also not playing us in the AIs so I don't expect them to win any games. Argentina out, Scotland in. Unfortunately, it'll all be for nothing since we'll end up getting NZ and Arg in the WC group

Here's a more cheerful outlook. Starting this Saturday.

If Scotland can beat Ireland by more than 15 points, then Scotland will move from 11th spot to 8th spot in the rankings on 77.69 points. Argentina would move up to 7th on 80.28, and Ireland drop from 7th to 9th on 77.55.

If Scotlanid then beat Italy in Murrayfield by more than 15 points, then their points would move to 78.09.

Ireland will be playing England in Twickenham on the same day. Guess who you'll be madly cheering for to win to really cement your ranking.

Ireland then have to play NZ three times in the summer. Not much hope there.

So it'll come down to the November Internationals. Ireland will be playing Argentina and Aus to get some points.

Have the faith.

Heyneke Meyer has said when he was appointed the new Springbok coach that he will see every test as a must win. Hopefully that means when we arrive in Scotland he will have sent his best team to play.

If not I reckon scotland can grind out a win, and that is most likely what they need to get into the top 8, the points they can gather from beating a big scalp can leapfrog them above the other teams.

Pot Hale wrote:Here's a more cheerful outlook. Starting this Saturday.

If Scotland can beat Ireland by more than 15 points, then Scotland will move from 11th spot to 8th spot in the rankings on 77.69 points. Argentina would move up to 7th on 80.28, and Ireland drop from 7th to 9th on 77.55.

If Scotlanid then beat Italy in Murrayfield by more than 15 points, then their points would move to 78.09.

Ireland will be playing England in Twickenham on the same day. Guess who you'll be madly cheering for to win to really cement your ranking.

Ireland then have to play NZ three times in the summer. Not much hope there.

So it'll come down to the November Internationals. Ireland will be playing Argentina and Aus to get some points.

Have the faith.

Hale, we've got Italy away in Rome this year

Scot Abroad wrote:The games in order are as follows

Ireland (A) - L
Italy (A) - W
Australia (A) - W
Fiji (A) - W
Samoa (A) - W
New Zealand (H) - L
South Africa (H) - W
Tonga (H) - W

That's what'll happen. A shock away win against Oz because they play their first test against Wales on the Saturday (our game is on the Tuesday). Lose to NZ but play SA in the pissing rain and grind out a victory a al 2010. Top it off with beating Tonga to set us up nicely in the top 8. Keep in mind that Arg play NZ, Oz and SA twice each in the 4 nations. No points for them there. They're also not playing us in the AIs so I don't expect them to win any games. Argentina out, Scotland in. Unfortunately, it'll all be for nothing since we'll end up getting NZ and Arg in the WC group

The shock away win in Oz is a possibility given that we are just beofre the Welsh match as you note, but am less hopeful for a result against SA. All in all, i think it's safe to say that thanks to Robinson, as far as rankings and RWC seeding goes we are right royally phooked

We'll get back in the top eight for sure, but it won't be in time for December.

However, the SRU have set a target of winning the 2015 WC so it doesn't matter who's in our group.

The team we play against in the final will be tougher than the 2nd seeds in our group.

Loving your belief, Tattie

BTW welcome to Axeman - good to have another Scot on board to provide the balanced view on rugby

I believe that the target is a load of baws Aslong, but a semi final appearance would be more than satisying pour moi!

Riskysports wrote:BTW welcome to Axeman - good to have another Scot on board to provide the balanced view on rugby

+1 Oh aye, didn't notice that, welcome Axeman - and another exile too?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Riskysports wrote:BTW welcome to Axeman - good to have another Scot on board to provide the balanced view on rugby

+1 Oh aye, didn't notice that, welcome Axeman - and another exile too?

+1

Another exile eh? living the highlife down South in the lovely weather, making a killing whilst those of us in Scotland struggle on under perpetual drizzle.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Riskysports wrote:BTW welcome to Axeman - good to have another Scot on board to provide the balanced view on rugby

+1 Oh aye, didn't notice that, welcome Axeman - and another exile too?

@ASBO - Yep - economic refugee down here for the last 17 years.

I'm thinking that we are going to struggle to make second seeds although the rankings are very tight. Probably indicative of the fact that there isn't really too much difference between teams 5/6 through to 11/12 and as such whether your seeded 2nd or 3rd may not (and I stress the word "may") make much difference.

e.g. on current seeding we could end up in a group of NZ, Ireland, Scotland or we could do really well and break into the top 8 and get a group of NZ, Scotland, Ireland

Axeman wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Riskysports wrote:BTW welcome to Axeman - good to have another Scot on board to provide the balanced view on rugby

+1 Oh aye, didn't notice that, welcome Axeman - and another exile too?

@ASBO - Yep - economic refugee down here for the last 17 years.

I'm thinking that we are going to struggle to make second seeds although the rankings are very tight. Probably indicative of the fact that there isn't really too much difference between teams 5/6 through to 11/12 and as such whether your seeded 2nd or 3rd may not (and I stress the word "may") make much difference.

e.g. on current seeding we could end up in a group of NZ, Ireland, Scotland or we could do really well and break into the top 8 and get a group of NZ, Scotland, Ireland

Good point, how much difference does the seeding really make - likely we will have to play two good teams anyway, and in fact, we should be confident getting out our group whoever we play

PS- Axeman has a beard, so would not trust him

I would not be surprised to see scotland win their next four games. That would put them in with a chance.

Scots fans also have to remember that their are teams above them that will be falling in the rankings too.