Federers map to #1; first, get to #2 before Roland Garros

This is the key; he needs the chance of Djokovic and Nadal meeting in the semi at the French, and while getting Nadal down to #3 only gives him a 50/50 chance thereof, it's important.

To achieve that he has to gain another 1000 points over Rafa from Miami onwards. Looking at what they each have on the line;

Rafa;
Miami 600
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 600
Rome 600

Total 3300

Roger;

Miami 360
Monte Carlo 180
Madrid 360
Rome 90

Total 990

Last year he lost this phase by 2310 points. He needs to lose by no more than 1480. Can he? It's not as easy as it looks. Much will depend on whether Nadal plays the extra event (is he doing that, with the Olympics in the calendar?) and of course whether he can avoid disasters like Meltzer and Gasquet. Even so, were Nadal to enjoy a clay season like 2010 when he won the lot he'd be uncatchable even if Federer made every final. He needs to put up a good showing at Miami. Perhaps it's even more important that Nadal slips up early somewhere. The top two so rarely get dumped early but that would be devastating.

What's the betting?

Good. I was going to create a thread about it.

tomorrow we should have Federer and Nadal pretty close:

Djokovic - 12670
Nadal - 10175
Federer - 9350

So about 800 points difference between #2 and #3.


From now to FO, Nadal has 3300pts to defend, Federer has 990 (I think).

It's going to be interesting.

He could do with Rafa getting Isner and Del Potro in his quarter at Miami for a start. One early exit for Rafa really puts it in his grasp.

But to be fair over that run they should get a far crack of the draw.

Yep, it's about time Nadal gets a bit of Davydenko, Delpo, Raonic and Isner taste again!

This is a great thread, I had been thinking since yesterday when Fed beat Nadal about whether Fed could take the No.2 spot from Nadal (I'm sure I pointed out last night the gap would be less than 1, 000 points if he won today).

Now Fed has won, it doesn't seem premature or speculative to consider if Fed can overtake Nadal in the rankings. I feel the real issue which is coming up for Fed is not so much how he does @ Miami but how he does on the clay court tournaments before RG. Winning one of those and improving his performance @ Rome should see him overtake Nadal but maybe Nadal may help too and exit Miami early (thus making the job that bit easier for Fed).

The No.2 ranking is important, even though Nadal lost yesterday, I still think in the medium term getting to No.2 before RG is important because there's a decent chance Fed will only then meet Nadal or Djokovic @ RG/Wimbledon/USO @ a Final in at least one of the three which is far more likely to give him the chance to win one of these slams than if he has to go through first Nadal and then Djokovic, a tall order for Fed any time of the year. Also, I'd seriously fancy Fed's chances @ either Wimbledon or the USO if Nadal is on Djokovic's side of the draw because I'm sure that Fed's performance against Djokovic in a final's match would be better than a semi-final's one.

One thing I also forgot, interestingly is Wimbledon and its important position in deciding who's No.1. If Fed catches up with Nadal and ultimately takes Wimbledon, Djoko goes down to around 11, 900 (provided he retains his current tally of points) and Fed goes up 1, 600 to around 12, 000 points, giving Fed the No.1 spot again, but this wouldn't be true for Nadal because Nadal can only gain 800 points @ Wimbledon. Fittingly, Fed is the biggest gainer from Wimbledon should he win it (gaining potentially the No.1 spot too, just as it did for Djokovic in 2011 and Nadal in 2008 and Federer in 2009).

Note that its unlikely Federer will be #1 or 2 seed for Wimbeldon, because of the way they add extra points for grass tournaments (all of grass points in previous 12 months + 75% of best result in 12-24 months).

Not including this years Queens/Halle results the bonus points for the top 4 are: Djokovic (2540); Nadal (2700); Federer (630); Murray (1260). So Federer would need to gain almost 3000 points on Nadal to be #2 at Wimbeldon.

So this makes being #2 at the FO even more important for Federer's chances of regaining #1.

great thread, I thought of doing it too, getting to no.2 is important, it would be a great treat to watch Djoko vs. Rafa in FO semi, if it happens and if Djoko over power Rafa in st.sets in FO Rafa might even consider retirement, that would take a serious confidence beating for Rafa and that would test his mental strength of a comeback, lets see how it goes.

Its crucial for Fed to win Miami to seriously keep the hype on the up.

Del Potro on Rafa's quarter would be interesting.

zaron wrote:Note that its unlikely Federer will be #1 or 2 seed for Wimbeldon, because of the way they add extra points for grass tournaments (all of grass points in previous 12 months + 75% of best result in 12-24 months).

Not including this years Queens/Halle results the bonus points for the top 4 are: Djokovic (2540); Nadal (2700); Federer (630); Murray (1260). So Federer would need to gain almost 3000 points on Nadal to be #2 at Wimbeldon.

So this makes being #2 at the FO even more important for Federer's chances of regaining #1.

I think this method decides the seeding but is nothing to do with ranking. I believe for ranking it's the same all over.
That doesn't alter the ranking going into W of course, as the points come off after the event.

zaron wrote:Note that its unlikely Federer will be #1 or 2 seed for Wimbeldon, because of the way they add extra points for grass tournaments (all of grass points in previous 12 months + 75% of best result in 12-24 months).

Not including this years Queens/Halle results the bonus points for the top 4 are: Djokovic (2540); Nadal (2700); Federer (630); Murray (1260). So Federer would need to gain almost 3000 points on Nadal to be #2 at Wimbeldon.

So this makes being #2 at the FO even more important for Federer's chances of regaining #1.

Good point. It means unlikely to have Nadal and Djoko in the same draw at Wimbledon.

Having said that, even if Fed was number 2 at the FO and Nadal number 3...what are the chance for a Nadal falling in Djoko's draw at the FO? 1 in 10?

Yeah, the points for Wimbledon are the same as the points for any Slam. Certainly Fed with his recent great run has put himself in touching distance of the top two.
A feature of the last three years, particularly in 09 and 10, was the way a seemingly massive lead in points could just disappear very quickly. In 09 Rafa lost getting on for 4,000 points in about four weeks thru inability to defend the French and then non-appearance at Wimbledon.
In 2010 it was Fed's turn, dumping points all over the place at the French and SW19. Djoko, also, made up a huge deficit thanks to his stellar start to 2011.

According to Federer's schedule on his website (don't know how official this is) he is taking a month off after Miami. Therefore missing Monte Carlo and coming back for Madrid. So, if correct, he only has Miami, Madrid and Rome to make up the points.
I understand why making number 2 is important but having the break makes sense. He has already played a lot this year and could run out of steam at the most critical part of the season if he didn't take one.

With a strong top three ranking has less affect on the seedings and draw. Luck also plays a part. The trick is to avoid another member of the top three in the semi's. Being ranked one or two you get a 50/50 chance of getting number three. It is an advantage over being ranked three but only if you get lucky.

I'll agree that it's an exciting time for Federer fans - I'm delighted that he's on his current tear, but when it comes down to him translating this into results to eat into Nadal's points tally after Miami I am unconvinced.

Clay to Nadal is like water to a drooping flower, and Djokovic has his reasons for wanting the clay season to be a huge success. Conversely, the US spring H/C season is probably less signficant to them this year than in past years.

I think that the way each of the top three are scheduling themselves does not completely coincide at the moment - that's not to downplay Fed's achievements since October, but Nadal and Djoko managed to peak for the one they both really wanted (Aus Open) and are no doubt working to wind it up for the clay season.

In short - Fed can do it, but that would require a slip-up by Nadal and you've got to go back to his defeat at the hands of Ferrero at Rome 2008 for the last such slip on clay (not counting RG vs. the Sod because it's the eve of RG we are looking at).

Hopefully Fed can do really well at Miami, but after that I expect Djoko and Nadal to share the prizes during the clay season and to go into RG as #1&2.

I think Federer makes a mistake to play Miami instead of MC.

Hopefully he will go early at Miami, so he can play a nice warm up at MC. Maybe that's what he plans secretely but obviously can't say it.

I think if the clay TMS play with the babolat balls of FO11, we might have a few surprises this year leading to FO12.

I think the Miami Master, on this respect, is going to be paramount. Should Fed repeat a similar stellar performance in Miami, the number 2 spot would definitely be at reach before the RG, considering that:

- Nadal is not going to have an easy walk on the clay court season with Djokovic owning him nearly in every court condition.

- Faster balls mean that even Federer, Murray or eventually Delpo could nail one of those tourneys or at least make a final this year.

Confidence, as ever, is the key. Reckon Fed, in previous years, would have lost to Bellucci and might have gone down to Raonic. But he hung in there.
Djoko, on the other hand, was playing in - and winning - tight matches over recent months. He might have lost to Murray last year and again at the AO this year and could - perhaps should - have lost to Fed at USO last year.
He came through cos he EXPECTED to win. I feel he would have beaten Isner in the semi at IW this last week if this had been a few months back. I don't really buy into this "saving himself for the Slams". He's probably not playing at quite the level he did last year, which is hardly surprising.
Rafa, confidence-wise, seems a bit down on himself. His game requires so much self belief that when that breaks down, he can struggle a bit.
Agree entirely with comments about Rafa being invigorated by clay. As he ever had a "bad" clay court season ? They've either been very good or excellent.

sirfredperry wrote: I don't really buy into this "saving himself for the Slams".

I agree they are not saving themselves for slams. Especially if you reach the semi and play a 3 setter there. We are entering the "tennis season" with tons of points to grab or defend till Wimbledon and I am sure they are all on peak form physically, which cannot be said after the USO.

The losses of Djoko and Nadal are not down to them only and the opposition has its say. Federer was so close to beat them at slams clay or not clay that it's not surprising that he wins a few too...and Isner is simply too powerful to control on a good day. Those things will happen but for me, it's as much the chasing pack getting better than systematically attributing the losses of the top players to an out-of-form factor.

A good question. It will be tough for Fed to catch Nadal as he's only planning 2 clay court events prior to FO. Nadal plans 4 pre-FO as usual.
Feds taking off April - and probably needs to if he's to remain strong come FO. The dilemma for him is whether he decides to throw his hat into Monte Carlo knowing he can gain points. If he does that then we know he's truly serious about chasing not #2, but #1. The flipside is that its a lot of tennis under his belt already and he may weaken his chances at FO if any niggles crop up via the physical clay season.

For FO Federer has alot of points to defend from last year, 1200. Defending this isnt a given at all - and I dont see him winning the French again. The competition isnt getting easier as others say and over 5 sets anything can happen in a slam on a bad/good day. He usually has a couple of 'struggly' matches early in a slam and one of these days he's going to go early. If he does go early then #1/#2 is very difficult unless Djoko and Nadal follow him out of the door.

On the other side, Nole still has a chance to his points at AO if he gets to the final. But then he has a large total to defend prior to FO. And make no mistake Nadal will be after him on clay this year because I expect his form to rise vs. 2011 where he didnt look that happy to be on a clay court most of the time - he had that weird period where his mojo had gone, yet still did ok by his own relative standards. I dont think he'll have a hangover about IW, he was off tour too long and doing doubles wasnt a great idea either. I expect him to go deep at Miami next week and defend his points. Bottom line, I think Fed needs to inject events into his schedule AND Nadal to slip up on clay. Not impossible...but Nadal has the chance to up his tally from last year by winning either Rome or Madrid. I think Federer will end the year where he is now....#3 (dont forget he has alot of points to defend at the back end of the year, Djokovic and Nadal dont). Another big question is whether Djokovic can defend everything he has as he has an absolute mountain of points to defend this next 4 months - there are scenrios where #1 around USO could get very interesting. Alot depends on the clay season for sure where there are 5500 points to go for.

Last year Djoko did also not play MC, but this years he does (although it's not quite clear on his website). So Rafa could lose his MC point too...
The battle on clay is going to be extremely fierce this year. Rafa wants his status as king of clay back and Djoko wants to win RG badly. I'll be surprised if Federer takes one of the clay titles. His main goal is Wimbledon/OG anyway and not the top spot

I think you're right GP, I dont think he's really ever been after #1 again...surely he wants those 7 Wimbs to tie Sampras and the empty locker of OG singles gold. Agree the clay season is going to be brutal.

I think Federer's goal is actually winning everything. Like all top players he believes he can win everything if things fall his way.

It would be too risky to focus on tournaments as anything can happen (injury, or else). He has been very committed in all the tournaments he entered since last years clay season and I don;t think it's going to change for the next 6 to 12 months. Then whatever he wins is going to be a great win for him. I think that's the mentality he is in, be it the FO, Wimbledon or Basel.

Well yes, he plans to win everything he enters like the top 4.
The question is how long can he keep this run going (an unknown for sure, we dont know how he'll physically hold up as the clay season starts although taking April off after Miami wont harm him). Then its whether he slots additionals into his schedule like MC...playing less events doesnt necessarily harm him if he does well in all he enters given the Bo18 ranking system. But he needs to look at places where he can gain points if he wants to seriously charge for #1. I guess I'm doubting the topic of OP...yes there is a potential route there but I dont see it being likely in reality.

Sure, like he says himself: "winning is the cure for everything", but it would be just as risky to focus on all the tourneys. MC is typically a tournament he doesn't care for much. He's enjoying this streak as much as he can but he's also a man of long term thinking, bigger picture stuff

lydian wrote:...we dont know how he'll physically hold up as the clay season starts although taking April off after Miami wont harm him).

Well according to some, this physical thing is a myth!

lydian wrote:Then its whether he slots additionals into his schedule like MC...playing less events doesnt necessarily harm him if he does well in all he enters given the Bo18 ranking system. But he needs to look at places where he can gain points if he wants to seriously charge for #1. I guess I'm doubting the topic of OP...yes there is a potential route there but I dont see it being likely in reality.

I think we can trust with his experience, he will take the right decision. He's got quite a proven record when it comes to pace himself. The others are certainly younger but their game is substancially more demanding. I don;t think Djoko coudl have won versus Nadal in 2 relative shorts sets made of short rallies for instance. Hence this is why to increase Fed's chance to win slams again and maybe regain top spot that he doesn't have to play both nadal and Djoko in the last stages.

I think his chance of winning a slam is about 15% to 25% ..roughly like the other top 3...with Djoko probably being closer to 35/40%.

gallery play wrote:Sure, like he says himself: "winning is the cure for everything", but it would be just as risky to focus on all the tourneys. MC is typically a tournament he doesn't care for much. He's enjoying this streak as much as he can but he's also a man of long term thinking, bigger picture stuff

Yes that's why I don;t think he focuses on all the tourneys. He plays them as he feels on the day. THis IW si teh perfect example. He was not feeling well and could have given up very early...but tried and took one round at a time. I think he also takes atournament at a time. Regarding MC that has probably more something to do with scheduling some resting patches than a lack of interest in MC (though I think he might not be a fan of the people/organisers there too). I woudl not be surprised for instance if he chooses to drop early of Miami and play a couple rounds at MC. he might want to see Nadal and Djoko slugging it out again in Mimai, MC and killing each other at teh TMSs leading to the slams.

Interesting times ahead. And I have tickets for the FO semis and final by the way so will be watching the clay season with extra interest!

I agree with the OP that getting to #2 before Roland Garros is very important, although it gives Fed only a 50% chance that he can avoid both Rafa and Djoko until the final.

Personally I don't think that playing some extra matches is a big problem for Fed. Looks like he won't play any tournaments in April (!), so I don't see the point of "tanking" in Miami. To have a serious shot at #2 before the French, he really needs to reach the final in Miami (I am assuming Rafa will catch up a lot during the clay season).

Awaiting the Miami draw with interest!

Depends on what time frame we are giving Federer to reclaim No.1. Miami is certainly a good starting point. There he could gain on both Nadal and Djokovic. Federer for me could make a big statement if he was to win Rome or Madrid.

If Federer is no.2 by August, then I would fancy him for the US Open and no.1 spot.

Henman Bill wrote:Interesting times ahead. And I have tickets for the FO semis and final by the way so will be watching the clay season with extra interest!

What do you do HB? YOu seem to be travelling with the players?

prostaff85 wrote:I agree with the OP that getting to #2 before Roland Garros is very important, although it gives Fed only a 50% chance that he can avoid both Rafa and Djoko until the final.

Knowing Nadal's luck with draws make that 1/10!

legendkillarV2 wrote:Depends on what time frame we are giving Federer to reclaim No.1. Miami is certainly a good starting point. There he could gain on both Nadal and Djokovic. Federer for me could make a big statement if he was to win Rome or Madrid.

If Federer is no.2 by August, then I would fancy him for the US Open and no.1 spot.

His opportunity runs out after the USO. After that he's the guy with all the points to defend.

Thanks for doing this BB, a much needed thread.

If my calculations are correct, Federer could take the No. 2 spot during Miami, if Nadal goes out early, and Fed goes all the way.

Thats possible, if very unlikely.

I think being drawn in Noles half is a setback, going in Rafas would put him in control of stopping Nadal making the final (obviously also doing the same for Nadal, but you know what I mean).

Tenez wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:Interesting times ahead. And I have tickets for the FO semis and final by the way so will be watching the clay season with extra interest!

What do you do HB? YOu seem to be travelling with the players?

I work in the UK and spend 95% of my time here. I only go to the live tennis occassionally. For tennis outside of the UK, I have only ever attended Madrid (2005), Indian Wells (2011) and French Open (2012). Madrid I was already living there at the time. IW I happened to have a business trip to San Francisco and had to stay the weekend there anyway. French Open 2012 is the first time I've travelled outside of the UK just for tennis. It should be a historic one.

Nadal wins = most FO wins.
Djokovic wins = career and non calendar slam.
Federer wins = every slam twice, first in professional era ever.
Murray wins = first British slam winner for
Anyone else wins = biggest surprise underdog victory for many a year.

Good on you. For a moment I thought you were a players' physio.

Here's the ranking list counting from Roland Garros '11:

1. Djokovic 9,420 points
2. Federer 8,360 points
3. Nadal 7,155 points
4. Murray 6,630 points

So it's not so sure Djokovic will be the #1 seed at the French.
Assuming Nadal will get his annual 1,000 points from Monte Carlo, Djokovic has a gap of slightly more than 1,000 points to his rivals. So Miami will be very important and nobody can afford 'tanking'.

Federer already no 1 TODAY:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

Yes, it's interesting that Fed already has enough points THIS YEAR to be ninth in the rankings for the 12-month rolling year. If you had 2,800 points come October you would probably still be in with a shout of getting to the year-end championships by, say, winning Paris indoors.
Obviously the best way Fed could have started eating up the points gap this year was to have won the AO or at least have got to the final. But he's got 2,000 points in three tourneys since and he's right back in the hunt.

I think if Federer is only playing two clay events before RG he's pretty much passed on the chance to be #2; ok, he must have made the calculation that this will be better for him over the year. His call, he knows better than us what will work for his body.

If he really did well at Miami, and/or of Rafa blew out then that might shake things up but it does look like he's showing that he doesn't regard flogging himself for the 50% chance of getting a Nadal/Djokovic semi-final at Roland Garros and Wimbledon is worth it. I get that, there's a 1 in 4 chance he'd get no benefit anyway, even less if you accept that Murray isn't exactly a bye..

sirfredperry wrote:Yes, it's interesting that Fed already has enough points THIS YEAR to be ninth in the rankings for the 12-month rolling year. If you had 2,800 points come October you would probably still be in with a shout of getting to the year-end championships by, say, winning Paris indoors.
Obviously the best way Fed could have started eating up the points gap this year was to have won the AO or at least have got to the final. But he's got 2,000 points in three tourneys since and he's right back in the hunt.

The other thing is how many of Djokovic's points come from the AO.

bogbrush wrote:I think if Federer is only playing two clay events before RG he's pretty much passed on the chance to be #2; ok, he must have made the calculation that this will be better for him over the year. His call, he knows better than us what will work for his body.

If he really did well at Miami, and/or of Rafa blew out then that might shake things up but it does look like he's showing that he doesn't regard flogging himself for the 50% chance of getting a Nadal/Djokovic semi-final at Roland Garros and Wimbledon is worth it. I get that, there's a 1 in 4 chance he'd get no benefit anyway, even less if you accept that Murray isn't exactly a bye..

Yes, I think he doesn;t want to kill himself for that top spot or certainly doesn;t think that number 2 or 3 is that important as the player in your draw at slams can lose early (or vice versa).

This thread is for us to speculate.....not him.

Well, anything at this stage is a bonus so I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much! Frankly it is amazing he's still comfortably in the top 10 playing against guys that are so much younger.

I don't think we should be too surprised that Fed is still riding high, although few would have forecast a 39-2 match record since the USO.
If anyone over 30 could compete well then it would be Rog, given his comparatively injury-free style and his ability to win quickly.

Yes...but I am still amazed he adapted his game from the fast SVing style to rival with the best topspinning athletes ever.

Nalbandian and Hewitt for instance were much better prepared than him to face this new generation....but it's still Federer giving them the toughest challenge.

THat is amazing!

We could soon have more 30-something tournament winners, as David Ferrer reaches his fourth decade shortly and he's usually good for a few titles each season.
Must say that when London was awarded the Olympics in July 2005 Fed immediately said he wanted to play in them. I thought then: "Gosh, you're gonna be 31 by then and probably way down the rankings." Could not have been more wrong.

sirfredperry wrote:We could soon have more 30-something tournament winners, as David Ferrer reaches his fourth decade shortly and he's usually good for a few titles each season.
Must say that when London was awarded the Olympics in July 2005 Fed immediately said he wanted to play in them. I thought then: "Gosh, you're gonna be 31 bny then and probably way down the rankings." Could not have been more wrong.

I know, right? Amazing self-belief.

sirfredperry wrote:We could soon have more 30-something tournament winners, as David Ferrer reaches his fourth decade shortly and he's usually good for a few titles each season.
Must say that when London was awarded the Olympics in July 2005 Fed immediately said he wanted to play in them. I thought then: "Gosh, you're gonna be 31 bny then and probably way down the rankings." Could not have been more wrong.

I honestly thought he woudl still be top dog by then.....but in restrospect I should have been wrong. I was just lucky he has kept improving all that time.

And someone said he's declared he wants to play the OG in Rio!

He da man.