Federers map to #1; first, get to #2 before Roland Garros

First topic message reminder :

This is the key; he needs the chance of Djokovic and Nadal meeting in the semi at the French, and while getting Nadal down to #3 only gives him a 50/50 chance thereof, it's important.

To achieve that he has to gain another 1000 points over Rafa from Miami onwards. Looking at what they each have on the line;

Rafa;
Miami 600
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 600
Rome 600

Total 3300

Roger;

Miami 360
Monte Carlo 180
Madrid 360
Rome 90

Total 990

Last year he lost this phase by 2310 points. He needs to lose by no more than 1480. Can he? It's not as easy as it looks. Much will depend on whether Nadal plays the extra event (is he doing that, with the Olympics in the calendar?) and of course whether he can avoid disasters like Meltzer and Gasquet. Even so, were Nadal to enjoy a clay season like 2010 when he won the lot he'd be uncatchable even if Federer made every final. He needs to put up a good showing at Miami. Perhaps it's even more important that Nadal slips up early somewhere. The top two so rarely get dumped early but that would be devastating.

What's the betting?

luciusmann wrote:Winning a title on clay definitely would give Fed a boost, you have to go back to 2009 when he last managed it and back then he was very much in ascendancy (making all the slam finals: contrast that with 2010 & 2011, just one slam final each year).

on the contrary luciusmann, federer cut a dejected, forlorn figure post aussie open 2009. What with the smashed rackets, poor performances it seemed feds was really in the mire.
He hadn't played well in a tournament all year, bar the aussie open, but got it together in madrid but not beforehand. Then he went on a tear after beating a knackered rafa where he played some great tennis.

I agree LuvSports, if you cut back to a specific moment in that year, it looked like Fed's superb run of results was over but subsequently, things turned around. As you pointed out, Fed turned it around @ Madrid that year.

I would take issue with your assessment that how Fed was post Aussie Open sums up his year overall. In terms of results and how things went, he was very much in ascendancy (after Madrid as you say), winning the French which he'd never won before and bouncing back from defeat @ Wimbledon the previous year and being down a set and 3 set points to his opponent and still winning it! Overall, 2009 started off badly but became a very good year, as a Fed fan, and as most Fed fans would say, the main disappointment is that Fed could have beaten Delpo and instead lost narrowly.

Most of them if not Everybody in Tennis world wanna see Fed get back to No.1, that would be awesome before his retirement.

luciusmann wrote:Winning a title on clay definitely would give Fed a boost

Think the jury is a little out about Madrid 2012 being a 'clay' title...

Yeah I see where you're coming from Lydian.

This is unlike any traditional clay court. Even the movement required is not the same. In terms of clay prep I don't think it gives Fed much but the confidence of winning is always welcome.

I like how strong Fed has looked in the clutch.

I think this is the main difference between the last 9 months and the previous 18. He was losing a lot of those tight matches in 2010-11, in fact one almost expected him to fold if the match got tight.

To his credit he recognised this as a problem and set it as his goal to iron out mental lapses. Against Tsonga at the WTF, Bellucci in IW and Raonic in IW and Madrid he really had his back against the wall but toughed it out.



emancipator

Agree Fed is a different beast from 12 months ago...the winning run has given him self belief and he's also starting to see his main rivals slipping which adds grist to his mill.

To be honest I didn't see Fed winning another clay title but this event is so weird that it's almost like playing indoors on carpet! Personally I think it's a shame to mess around with the clay season that is already short when we have a preponderance of HCs on tour. This is really bad planning and decision making by the ATP mgmt to allow this to have happened. Clay should be clay, not indoor ball-bearings carpet.

Some talk on MTL that Fed is now 2 at the French since now the Rome final goes over to Monday, the points won't be added until then. I doubt that's right, can anyone be bothered to do some research and check?

Henman Bill wrote:Some talk on MTL that Fed is now 2 at the French since now the Rome final goes over to Monday, the points won't be added until then. I doubt that's right, can anyone be bothered to do some research and check?

Tat would be sweet if tats the case.

Wow. Surely not correct, but you can see why.

Any good ideas how to find this out? Technically it's right of course, unless they hold them open and issue rankings on Tuesday. But wouldn't that be showing bias?

@ BB

Tennis follows a ranking system based on weeks [like no. of weeks at the top] and not on days, so i would be surprised if they make changes on Tuesday and not next Monday.

Thx HB for the news, this is interesting.

Henman Bill wrote:Some talk on MTL that Fed is now 2 at the French since now the Rome final goes over to Monday, the points won't be added until then. I doubt that's right, can anyone be bothered to do some research and check?

On this would be awesome....regardless of who wins, Federer still gets seeded #2 for the French Open! This doesn't necessarily mean Nadal won't be in his half....but it's still possible he won't be.

Anyone know when they do the draw @ RG? Thursday or Friday this week?

Friday luciusmann, usually around midday I think.

http://www.rolandgarros.com/en_FR/scores/draws/ms/index.html

Thanks lydian!

so does that end that theory?

No clarification of what happens.

If the rankings are issued every Monday, I dont think they would add on the points on Tuesday instead, would they? Anyone know what actually would happen or will happen regarding rankings....links?

In the past, when other ranking tournaments have been similarly delayed, I'm pretty sure I have (IIRC) seen the new positions delayed till Tuesday.

I don't think Monday is sacrosanct per se, rather just a practical issue ie. the fact that all winners and other placings from the previous week's tournies around the world are (invariably!) known by the Sunday evening

I imagine that would be so, but I can't recall any precedent for which I know the outcome.

It's normally been delayed for grand slams though (if my past recollection serves me right)....would they update the rankings on Tuesday for a masters tournament?

Agree with lags, I would be shocked if they only included Rome in next week's rankings. After all, they issue them on Monday, and they can do that even with a Monday final. Plus so what if they had to issue them on Tuesday "as of Monday"? Still seems less disruptive than moving the rankings to the next week.

Also, I am almost sure that is what they did the last few years when USO ended up on Monday.

Yes, summerblues, that's what I thought they did with the USO too. Although it's a grand slam and more points at stake too, would they do this with the Rome Masters though?

luciusmann wrote:would they do this with the Rome Masters though?

I guess technically the answer is "I do not know" but I would be surprised if they did not. There is no urgency to issue the rankings as nothing that gets done on Monday, Tuesday or even Wednesday depends on their availability, so it seems like it is very easy for them to wait a day or two and issue them once the final is done.

They could easily publish them at say 2pm, immediately after tomorrow's final - not much different from say 8am in the morning. All the other positions are known of course, it's only the two finalists which have to be added to the mix.

(Oops .... did I say 2pm ... ?? I momentarily forgot it involves Djoker/Nadal and hence a potential slugfest. Make that 6pm maybe .... )

i just tweeted robbie koenig asking that question, doubt he will reply though.

The weather forecast isn't looking great so add in the slug-fest factor and 6pm even looks optimistic! What if the match even got delayed till Tuesday....or couldn't be completed till Tuesday, then what?

luciusmann wrote:The weather forecast isn't looking great so add in the slug-fest factor and 6pm even looks optimistic! What if the match even got delayed till Tuesday....or couldn't be completed till Tuesday, then what?

It would set up another great excuse for RG.

If match is delayed say more than Tuesdayt, then both players at a conference together should pull out of the final simultaneously and no points given to either.

It's ironic that when this thread was put up, it seemed like a faint dream that Fed would even get close to #2 but here we are now, just a week before Roland Garros and Fed is actually #2 and very well may be for the tournament (we won't know for sure until tomorrow [or Tuesday]).

Out of the 3 tournaments Federer took part in (post IW), in 1 he got less points (lost 315 @ Miami) and the other 2 increased (gained 640 @ Madrid & gained 270 @ Rome). So overall, not bad on the points front and means he'll either narrowly miss being 2nd seed @ Roland Garros or will be 2nd seed. Who would have thought he'd get so close in the first place?

Jahu wrote:If match is delayed say more than Tuesdayt, then both players at a conference together should pull out of the final simultaneously and no points given to either.

And 50 million points deducted.

As a general policy it would be fairer just to delay the rankings update until the end of Monday or Tuesday, but we will see what they do.

(Federer I suppose had the bad luck of playing 3rd at Rome despite being ranked 2, so if he does get lucky, it would be payback though in this case.)

JuliusHMarx wrote:

Jahu wrote:If match is delayed say more than Tuesdayt, then both players at a conference together should pull out of the final simultaneously and no points given to either.

And 50 million points deducted.

Whereupon Fernando Verdasco is promptly installed as the new World Number One, and a fitting reward for his exploits at Madrid.

As we've noticed, the 2012 tennis calendar is running a week 'late' compared to the previous year. I just realised that still will still be the case during both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. This means last year's points will be dropped on the 'middle Monday' during the Slams!

This leads to the odd situation that Federer will again take the #2 spot on 4 June, probably only to lose it again a week later.

Depending on the Roland Garros results, Federer could theoretically even take the #1 spot during Wimbledon (on 2 July). This chance is very small though as Federer would need to score 855 points more than Djokovic at the French Open.

I thought there were no changes to the ranking during the two weeks of a slam tournament, i.e., points in week one carry over to week two, with changes made on the monday after the tournament, or after the final has been played in a delayed final.

ps if this were not the case and prostaff was right, then next year, everybody would have points for both the 2012 and 2013 tournaments during overlap weeks, as next year schedule goes back to normal (assuming this is not a permanent schedule change).

Re: Federers map to #1; first, get to #2 before Roland Garros

Close but no cigar BB, so Rafa 10060 Fed 9790

Scenario: Rafa loses in the final, Fed in the semi

Rafa goes down by 800 to 9260 and Federer down 500 to 9290...is that right...FEderer 30 points ahead and a case of who wins Queens/Halle for the Wimbledon no 2 seeding. Although it may not be as critical as at the French.

This deserves a much needed bump.

These next 5 days will start to become more interesting. More so if dare I say it Djokovic falls before the semi's.

legendkillarV2 wrote:This deserves a much needed bump.

These next 5 days will start to become more interesting. More so if dare I say it Djokovic falls before the semi's.

I feel the most likely outcome is Federer losing in the semi-final to evental champion Djokovic, but even that will keep the ranking in sight. He'd gain a few points while Djokovic is deep into the period where all he can do is defend. It will stack the odds towards Federer being 2nd seed at the USO.

However, as you say, if by some miracle Federer was to get to the final then evenrything is on, even if he lost the final itself he'd be in touching distance.

I wouldn't be so sure Fed will lose to Djok on grass even now at near 31. Federer can beat him on grass, there is no doubt. But for now no one can say if they will even meet.

A Djokovic-Federer semi looks rather sure to me. After Berdych's loss (and then Gulbis predictably losing himself in the 2nd round), it's one of the weakest top- or bottom-half draws I've seen in a long time. Mainly veterans and clay-court specialists remaining.

On the other side it's harder to predict, with Ferrer, Roddick, Del Potro, Cilic, Raonic, Murray, Tsonga potential semi-finalists. And what to think of newcomers like Goffin and B. Baker?

I think Goffin and Baker have every chance going deep into the draw. If Raonic overcomes Querrey I think Cillic will put him to the sword.

I fancy either Baker or Goffin to take out Tsonga.

As I posted on the other thread, Fed is now 2nd in 'live' rankings, 1,205 points behind Djoko and a couple of hundred above Rafa. http://live-tennis.eu/

From the end of Wimbledon to the end of the US Open (i.e. discounting points from Wimbledon 2011) Djoko defends 3,600 points, Fed defends 990, and Nadal defends 1,390.

Assuming Fed meets Djoko in the SF here, that is going to decide a lot ranking-wise.

Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

I need a thread like this to stay sane today.

LF as you were quite on the mark with your predictions at the FO, who out of Baker or Goffin will go deep into the draw?

LK, my instinct says Baker. Baker prefers faster courts based on what I have seen of his footwork and flatter hitting.

Goffin played well against Tomic, but the Levine match was perhaps too much expectation from me. If he had won it in straight sets, it would have been even more impressive. Fish is not 100% fit. So great chance for Goffin.

Would love to see younger players go further.

laverfan wrote:Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

Would you like to re-phrase that?

I think a lot depends upon the Olympics - how much effort the top players put into it. You can't see Fed busting a gut at the Oympics and the two US tournaments. I see him going for it at 2/3 of those tournaments.

I'd think that Djoko would like an Olympic gold for Serbia, whether Rafa would really like to retain his title or is so peed off with the roof and the risk of playing under it that he'll be turned off only time will tell.

Baker does have the 'luck' of the draw on his side. Goffin v Tsonga would be interesting. If Goffin and Baker got beyond round 3 would put the cats amongst the pigeons.

I shall make a bold prediction. I fancy Roddick and Nishikori to triumph over Ferrer and Del Potro respectively.

Fed has won Cinci 4 times before so there's every chance he could do well. I don't want to get ahead of myself but if Fed somehow wins Wimbledon, I have a feeling he'll win either Cinci or Canada and he will be in a strong position to take the YE No.1 spot. I remember debating with socal who said Fed didn't have a chance of holding onto the No.1 spot if he got it, well it's now mainly a two horse race between him and Djokovic. Wimbledon will go a long way to determining it because I think it will the launch pad of seeing further Fed victories at other tournaments. Often the adversity of other top players is a launch pad for a player to establish themselves in their absence, 2010 comes to mind with Fed's early exit back to back in RG & Wimbledon with Nadal winning them both.

Let's not forget that Nadal is still leading the "race to London", but probably he won't anymore after Wimbledon, and his favorite part of the season will soon be over.

For Djokovic and Federer, a lot of points are at stake. It's both about getting the points and preventing that the other one gets them: (2,000-720)*2 = 2,560 points could will be decisive for the year-end #1 ranking. And the winner of Wimbledon will go full of confidence to the Olympics and the US hardcourt season.

Djoko remains my favourite for Wimbledon, ahead of Fed, and he'd be my favourite if they faced one another at the SF.

If, however, Fed were to win at Wimbledon I agree with Luciusman that he'd have a respectable run at keeping his ranking for the rest of the year. He'd have to improve across Canada/Cincinnati and have a similar run on the indoor courts to last year which is tough but doable. Fed has been saying that he hopes the second half of the year will be his time so he's obviously got that on his mind.

Anyway, we are getting ahead of ourselves because I still don't think he'll take the first vital step of winning Wimbledon.

barrystar wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

Would you like to re-phrase that?

The possibility of a Fedal SF with these to being 2-3 makes it similar to the reverse, hence my comment. If Nadal ends up in Djokovic's half, instead of a Final, they would be playing each other at the SF stage. It would mean they are
not playing for the title, but they are still playing each other at the business end. Being #2 prevents Federer-Djokovic SFs, but a potential F meeting is still there.

Regarding points, this is what Federer has to defend prior to USO.

20.11.2011 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals W 1,500 12.11.2012

14.08.2011 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Cincinnati Q 180 20.08.2012
08.08.2011 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Canada R16 90 13.08.2012

31.10.2011 Basel W 500 05.11.2012

barrystar wrote:I think a lot depends upon the Olympics - how much effort the top players put into it. You can't see Fed busting a gut at the Oympics and the two US tournaments. I see him going for it at 2/3 of those tournaments.

I'd think that Djoko would like an Olympic gold for Serbia, whether Rafa would really like to retain his title or is so peed off with the roof and the risk of playing under it that he'll be turned off only time will tell.

The 'roof' played a minor role in the match v Rosol, IMVHO. Nadal can adjust. BTW, he served 19 aces yesterday, typically, it is in single digits. IIRC, there were two serves at 130+. Djokovic may have a wobble, al la FO v Tsonga, before he gets there, perhaps against someone like Gasquet (yet another Frenchman).