Federers map to #1; first, get to #2 before Roland Garros

First topic message reminder :

This is the key; he needs the chance of Djokovic and Nadal meeting in the semi at the French, and while getting Nadal down to #3 only gives him a 50/50 chance thereof, it's important.

To achieve that he has to gain another 1000 points over Rafa from Miami onwards. Looking at what they each have on the line;

Rafa;
Miami 600
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 600
Rome 600

Total 3300

Roger;

Miami 360
Monte Carlo 180
Madrid 360
Rome 90

Total 990

Last year he lost this phase by 2310 points. He needs to lose by no more than 1480. Can he? It's not as easy as it looks. Much will depend on whether Nadal plays the extra event (is he doing that, with the Olympics in the calendar?) and of course whether he can avoid disasters like Meltzer and Gasquet. Even so, were Nadal to enjoy a clay season like 2010 when he won the lot he'd be uncatchable even if Federer made every final. He needs to put up a good showing at Miami. Perhaps it's even more important that Nadal slips up early somewhere. The top two so rarely get dumped early but that would be devastating.

What's the betting?

I was thinking about possible meanings of the word "floater"!

barrystar wrote:Djoko remains my favourite for Wimbledon, ahead of Fed, and he'd be my favourite if they faced one another at the SF.

If, however, Fed were to win at Wimbledon I agree with Luciusman that he'd have a respectable run at keeping his ranking for the rest of the year. He'd have to improve across Canada/Cincinnati and have a similar run on the indoor courts to last year which is tough but doable. Fed has been saying that he hopes the second half of the year will be his time so he's obviously got that on his mind.

Anyway, we are getting ahead of ourselves because I still don't think he'll take the first vital step of winning Wimbledon.

I didn't think he would win but then the draw came out.
I didn't think he would get to the semis easily then I saw him play in the first two rounds.
I didn't think he would get past Nadal in a final then Rafa went out.
I didn't think he would beat Djokovic then......

So much has gone right for Fed. Isn't this what people have been saying for last year on the forum, that Fed needs two things:

a) A favourable draw
b) Either Djokovic or Nadal or both losing early

Both have happened. I agree with CC and others who say this is Fed's best chance of a grand slam now. If Fed is going to win a slam, why not where it all began? Wimbledon is his best slam. This isn't RG and we're a week away from the semis and a potential Fed vs Djokovic clash but let's not forget that Fed was leading in both the first and second set @ RG. He slipped up on serve that's what did the damage, it wasn't as shocking as Nadal was with Rosol (he went 40-0 down on his own serve) but you can't afford those slip ups against players usually, especially top players. Sometimes against inspired or particularly good opponents, it kills your chances. It killed Fed's chances and he effectively folded in the third set to Djokovic.

I expect Wimbledon to play more like the Fed vs Djokovic matches @ the USO with Fed edging it in 4 sets. If it goes to 5 I think Djokovic could win it but yes, I can't deny I have changed my mind. Fed has a chance to reassert his dominance on tennis by not only winning Wimbledon,, his first slam in 2 1/2 years but also taking the No.1 ranking with it. I think Fed will take his chances like he did in RG 2009 and cause another upset by taking Djokovic out. Fed has form on taking advantage of freak opportunities, whether he can now he's older is the question but this favourable draw is exactly what he needs and everything has gone his way so far.

barrystar wrote:I was thinking about possible meanings of the word "floater"!

What I meant is that he [Nadal] can now 'float' between the two halves, unlike being fixed in the bottom half when at #2.

This tournament is definitely shaping up to be Fed's best tilt at a slam for ages, I am excited about that but Djoko is still my favourite to beat him in the SF if they both get there.

barrystar wrote:This tournament is definitely shaping up to be Fed's best tilt at a slam for ages, I am excited about that but Djoko is still my favourite to beat him in the SF if they both get there.

I still have Djoko as a favourite, but over Fed, it's more even now I sense. The question is how Fed responds after knowing about what happened to Nadal, we'll see today....

Fed knows he only has to beat Djokovic if he's in the semi and he's very close to the title.

Let's remember, this is grass and the two haven't played each other. Fed holds onto his serve reasonably well, I see him winning, no doubt about it. I think Djokovic will have the nerves and will certainly drop his serve in at least two sets. Then the onus is on Fed holding onto his. Against Tsonga last year it was just a single break in the last 3 sets and prior to that match he dropped a single set in a tie breaker. Djokovic isn't a big server, I think Fed's serve will be key, he gets a high first serve percentage and a high win point, Djokovic will lose.

lucius, there is the small matter of a possible final with a certain A. Murray as well...

reckoner wrote:lucius, there is the small matter of a possible final with a certain A. Murray as well...

Indeed, they've never met on any surface other than hardcourt, the H2H on there is 8-7 to Murray. Last 5 matches since 2010 3-2 in Fed's favour. The last 2 wins have gone to Fed, including on extremely fast Dubai.

Murray stands a chance but his chances are better against Djokovic. He's never pushed Fed to 4 or 5 sets in a grand slam match, he has pushed Djokovic, most recently @ the Aussie Open in 5 sets. A Fed or Murray win would be pure poetry to me! Can't lose in my own mind if they both make the final!

Yes, a Murray-Fed final is a definite win-win. Lot of pressure on Murray, now, whereas Fed still has to get past Djoko. I suppose it was asking a lot to have a fifth successive GS Djoko-Nadal final but few would have seen the possibility disappearing by the first Thursday.
I make it that Fed is already assured of number two ranking regardless of what happens from now on, as Rafa is gonna lose 1,155 points. This was always going to be Fed's best chance of gaining points as he only had 360 to defend.
I, for one, had Rafa down to win this year. But he had been blown away at GS events before - (Tsonga at the AO in 08, del Potro at the USO in 09 and even an inspired Murray in the S-F at the US one year). No one has done that to him at Wimbledon, though.
Did the weather have a hand ? A nice hot day after chilly ones and then the roof closing. Still feel there was something the matter with Rafa - injury?, illness? - he looked a step slow. I'm sure the other top three would have got near some of those howitzer services and vicious ground strokes. Rosol was amazing, though.

sirfredperry wrote:Yes, a Murray-Fed final is a definite win-win. Lot of pressure on Murray, now, whereas Fed still has to get past Djoko. I suppose it was asking a lot to have a fifth successive GS Djoko-Nadal final but few would have seen the possibility disappearing by the first Thursday.
I make it that Fed is already assured of number two ranking regardless of what happens from now on, as Rafa is gonna lose 1,155 points. This was always going to be Fed's best chance of gaining points as he only had 360 to defend.
I, for one, had Rafa down to win this year. But he had been blown away at GS events before - (Tsonga at the AO in 08, del Potro at the USO in 09 and even an inspired Murray in the S-F at the US one year). No one has done that to him at Wimbledon, though.
Did the weather have a hand ? A nice hot day after chilly ones and then the roof closing. Still feel there was something the matter with Rafa - injury?, illness? - he looked a step slow. I'm sure the other top three would have got near some of those howitzer services and vicious ground strokes. Rosol was amazing, though.

Nadal looked physically fine during the match. Conditions certainly didn't favour Nadal. Then the break for the roof the close blunted Nadal's momentum. However, Nadal has coped with this before. I saw Nadal's post match interview, he didn't mention any injury or illness, in fact he said the last 4 months have been great for him! Doesn't suggest any niggles.

I think the appearance of a step slowness was more the fact that Rosol held his serve so comfortably in the sets he won in 2, 3 & 5. Nadal looked dejected and clueless and it was most apparent in the 5th set. After he lost serve in the first service game and Rosol held serve so comfortably I think Nadal realised there was no way back and that's how it proved to be.

The issue is more now how comfortable a lead Fed will build for the #2 spot. Right now it's around 250, it can only go up and up as he progresses. Getting to the semis gives him a lead of close to 1, 000 points over Nadal.

I agree, a Fed Murray final would be awesome.

Don't forget that Federer is 2.5 years older and slower and Murray is peaking so the historic head to head isn't the be all and end all...

reckoner wrote:I agree, a Fed Murray final would be awesome.

Don't forget that Federer is 2.5 years older and slower and Murray is peaking so the historic head to head isn't the be all and end all...

That would even it up and perhaps give us a 5 setter if they meet in the final! Fed's last 3 Wimbledon finals have been 5 set affairs so it could go that way...

laverfan wrote:Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

Could be worse. Could be a #2 floater.

BB, you're just talking sh*t

lydian wrote:BB, you're just talking sh*t

so they say...........

tsk tsk, toilet humour

This place is going down the pan

BB is driving me round the u-bend

One might as well as ask who's the biggest #2 in Open Era tennis?

Well I'm not called bogbrush for nothing.....

Is it because of your hair?

reckoner wrote:One might as well as ask who's the biggest #2 in Open Era tennis?

David To

Nadal sank like a stone yesterday despite being a floater but the usual cure of more greens would not appear to be what he needs.

bogbrush wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

Could be worse. Could be a #2 floater.

Or the turd seed

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:One might as well as ask who's the biggest #2 in Open Era tennis?

David To

Not who I had in mind...

reckoner wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

reckoner wrote:One might as well as ask who's the biggest #2 in Open Era tennis?

David To

Not who I had in mind...

Yashar Sheet?

barrystar wrote:

bogbrush wrote:

laverfan wrote:Federer has a good chance to do better at Canada/Cincy and be closer to Djokovic. It depends on how the draws work out. Like Federer, Nadal is a dangerous #3 floater.

Could be worse. Could be a #2 floater.

Or the turd seed

in faeces veritas?

Matan Sh!trit?

reckoner wrote:Is it because of your hair?

Hair IS the answer, but not my own.

It all dates back about 10 years ago when I pinched my little sons email account because I was such a technophobe I couldn't get one myself. He had spikey hair and we called him bogbrusg, so when I started frequenting forums I used that nic.
I've been bogbrush on many forums - at least 4 or 5 - and when I saw the name appear in Private Eye a few years ago on their mock meaasge boards section I was made up because I've never come across a different bogbrush on any forum. So somewhere out there a PE contributor borrowed my name.

bogbrush wrote:

reckoner wrote:Is it because of your hair?

Hair IS the answer, but not my own.

It all dates back about 10 years ago when I pinched my little sons email account because I was such a technophobe I couldn't get one myself. He had spikey hair and we called him bogbrusg, so when I started frequenting forums I used that nic.
I've been bogbrush on many forums - at least 4 or 5 - and when I saw the name appear in Private Eye a few years ago on their mock meaasge boards section I was made up because I've never come across a different bogbrush on any forum. So somewhere out there a PE contributor borrowed my name.

That's a cute story bb. I remember that in PE - quite an honour to appear in those august pages!