Federers map to #1; first, get to #2 before Roland Garros

First topic message reminder :

This is the key; he needs the chance of Djokovic and Nadal meeting in the semi at the French, and while getting Nadal down to #3 only gives him a 50/50 chance thereof, it's important.

To achieve that he has to gain another 1000 points over Rafa from Miami onwards. Looking at what they each have on the line;

Rafa;
Miami 600
Monte Carlo 1000
Barcelona 500
Madrid 600
Rome 600

Total 3300

Roger;

Miami 360
Monte Carlo 180
Madrid 360
Rome 90

Total 990

Last year he lost this phase by 2310 points. He needs to lose by no more than 1480. Can he? It's not as easy as it looks. Much will depend on whether Nadal plays the extra event (is he doing that, with the Olympics in the calendar?) and of course whether he can avoid disasters like Meltzer and Gasquet. Even so, were Nadal to enjoy a clay season like 2010 when he won the lot he'd be uncatchable even if Federer made every final. He needs to put up a good showing at Miami. Perhaps it's even more important that Nadal slips up early somewhere. The top two so rarely get dumped early but that would be devastating.

What's the betting?

bogbrush wrote:And someone said he's declared he wants to play the OG in Rio!

He da man.

that would be awesome!

Rio - surely an Olympics too far. But then by 2016 Fed won't be much older - actually probably younger - than Agassi was when he packed up. Fairly safe to say Fed won't be in the top three in 2016....or could there be more surprises ? Personally, reckon he will have packed it in by the time of Rio.

sirfredperry wrote:Rio - surely an Olympics too far. But then by 2016 Fed won't be much older - actually probably younger - than Agassi was when he packed up. Fairly safe to say Fed won't be in the top three in 2016....or could there be more surprises ? Personally, reckon he will have packed it in by the time of Rio.

I thought that about London, so who knows?

sirfredperry wrote:Rio - surely an Olympics too far. But then by 2016 Fed won't be much older - actually probably younger - than Agassi was when he packed up. Fairly safe to say Fed won't be in the top three in 2016....or could there be more surprises ? Personally, reckon he will have packed it in by the time of Rio.

I think it's in his hands. More than any player I've ever watched I think his game is resistant to age. What's hurt him is the changes effected on the game so if they slowed it down even more he may go, but actually if they speeded it back up he could easily do an Agassi, but with more success.

reckoner wrote:Well, anything at this stage is a bonus so I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much! Frankly it is amazing he's still comfortably in the top 10 playing against guys that are so much younger.

Quite apart from his quality of play in beating both Delpo and Rafa, there was a particular point which, in a way, sums up Fed's streak these past six months IMO - and more specifically the age factor

In his match against Bellucci : the amazing, crucial point with which Federer took the second set to level things up. It was a point that Bellucci looked for all the world to have won, at least twice in fact !

Here was Bellucci in his first-ever meeting with the legend, someone he would have watched when he (ie Bellucci) was still at school. Not a top, top player sure. But a very very good one, with victories just last year over both Murray & Berdych in straights, and now playing great tennis again to take a set lead over Fed.

Bellucci is in his prime, more than six years younger and was perhaps thinking he might not get too many similar opportunities again vs Fed, who for all we know could well decide to call it a day within 12/18 months and "spend more time with the family". So, a chance for Bellucci one day to tell his own kids or grand-kids I was good enough to beat Federer once (- even if he was past 30 at the time....)

You could see the sense of despair at the close, when it hadn't happened. The look of damn, I so nearly had him.....

Lags72. Re Bellucci. Of course, it was his first meeting with Fed and he was not scarred by the awful head-to-head figures that some others have with Rog.
At 4-4 0-30 in the final set, Rog produced four big serves and that was that.

sfp : yep, sure enough, he must have closed out countless matches in much the same way over the years, so nothing new there of course

But w.r.t. that particular point I mentioned : IIRC you yourself touched on that very same point on a thread last week. It was not only rather special in itself, but also the turning point of the match I'd say.

Federer will win Wimbledon.

jersey wrote:Federer will win Wimbledon.

Surely the LTA and AELTC deserve access to such privileged information. Do hope they spot the above post.

They could dispense with all the hassle of organising and staging the tournament itself, and merely award that beautiful Trophy (+ cheque of course) at a Press conference, televised worldwide for the benefit of all those interested.

On second thoughts they might decide they would rather have the revenue from admission tickets and broadcast/media rights.

Exactly...might as well get the embroidery order in early for Federer's cardie.

God, get over the jumper thing already, it's not like your guy has any dress sense!

Did you press the humour ignore button there?

Well, with respect it's just not funny any more - topical humour has a shelf life you know.

lydian wrote:Exactly...might as well get the embroidery order in early for Federer's cardie.

Would I sound odd if I said I liked the cardie? (That is a rhetorical question and you don't need to answer lydian! )

However, the strange cross between Officer and a Gentleman and a waiter on a cruise ship TMF wore the following year was obviously not an ensemble he chose to run past past Anna!!!

Still fab whatever!

Nike have a lot to answer for...

time please wrote:

lydian wrote:Exactly...might as well get the embroidery order in early for Federer's cardie.

Would I sound odd to say I liked the cardie? (That is a rhetorical question and you don't need to answer lydian! )

However, the strange cross between Officer and a Gentleman and a waiter on a cruise ship TMF wore the following year was obviously not an ensemble he chose to run past past Anna!!!

Still fab whatever!

Agree 100%. The cardie was simply class, understated and elegant.

The long trousers the previous year were all right, bit of fun. Nowhere near as good as the cardie.

I really prefer not to think about the jacket etc. My fear was that the following year he'd have a towable bag wth his stuff in, like a camp air steward.

lol TP...the funny thing is I wasnt actually slating the cardie either, just saying get the embroiderer ready!

haha...I wont answer. I know you like a man in a cardie...!

Something like this? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GWJatwb-WlI/Sj_DZRP7xtI/AAAAAAAAJsM/_qrQrrvKg9c/s400/federer_wimb09_4.jpg

or this?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zZsew-On3Fk/Tbj-9BwTJXI/AAAAAAAAdzY/aFUI98IH7Sk/s1600/charlie%2Bcardigan.jpg

Yes....fab though it would have been to see him scoop 7 or 8 in a row, one did begin to become a little apprehensive about the first appearance on CC!

lol at towable bag.......yes it did seem to be heading that way!

Meh, I'd rather Fed ignored this sort of sideshow.

What next, morning tails and Rafa in a banana hammock?

lydian wrote:lol TP...the funny thing is I wasnt actually slating the cardie either, just saying get the embroiderer ready!

haha...I wont answer. I know you like a man in a cardie...!

Something like this? http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_GWJatwb-WlI/Sj_DZRP7xtI/AAAAAAAAJsM/_qrQrrvKg9c/s400/federer_wimb09_4.jpg

or this?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-zZsew-On3Fk/Tbj-9BwTJXI/AAAAAAAAdzY/aFUI98IH7Sk/s1600/charlie%2Bcardigan.jpg

OMG I had forgotten The Bag had golden ends - Oh Fed! He looks a bit sheepish there (as well he might!)

Ta very much for second photograph too..........I have come over all hot and bothered - but that may just be because I have imbibed my horlicks too quickly

I forgot that in 2009 he had the "15" top which was controversial. I never held that against him, I just thought it was a Nike thing and he allowed his pleasure at the record to overshadow appreciation of Rddicks feelings.

My favourite Federer outfit was the long tennis trousers. Didn't he put them on back to front after his win against Nadal in 2007? After all that drama it made me smile... It makes me smile again now just thinking about it.

My fav Fed moment is when he's wearing those platform shoes and tapping away in that cringeworthy Gillette advert with Woods to the Bee Gees Staying Alive song. Hilarious!

TP....horlicks? If that drink is getting you all hot and bothered imagine what Ovaltine would do for you, lol. Yeah he was the "Man with The Golden Bag" that year! 10/10 for cojones in wearing those ensembles, but not sure it drove up cardie sales in Marks!

hawkeye wrote:My favourite Federer outfit was the long tennis trousers. Didn't he put them on back to front after his win against Nadal in 2007? After all that drama it made me smile... It makes me smile again now just thinking about it.

I missed that! Oh I hope it's right, that would have been hilarious.

I must declare an interest in this; I am a cardie man myself in the winter and regularly wear them at work in the cold weather.

lydian wrote:My fav Fed moment is when he's wearing those platform shoes and tapping away in that cringeworthy Gillette advert with Woods to the Bee Gees Staying Alive song. Hilarious!

TP....horlicks? If that drink is getting you all hot and bothered imagine what Ovaltine would do for you, lol. Yeah he was the "Man with The Golden Bag" that year! 10/10 for cojones in wearing those ensembles, but not sure it drove up cardie sales in Marks!

I googled the gillette advert - I think that had to take 'cojones' Actually think he did very well to enjoy the joke at his own expense. Seriously awful advert apart from that - looked like it had been shot for a sixth form project!

Ovaltine sounds a little racy - I'm good with my horlicks chaser thanks, that's after the half bottle of pinot noir!

wimb09_4.jpg Looks like late Kim Jong-Il in white.

lydian wrote:Exactly...might as well get the embroidery order in early for Federer's cardie.

You didn't buy the humor Agassi had over Sampras on the exhibition match did you , you didn't take it funny when MTO and Toilets break thingy commented on Rafa did you , your sense of humor at times is becoming a sense of humor itself

UPDATE: If Nadal wins today, then Fed will have to win the title, plus Nadal lose in the semis or earlier for him to become No. 2.

You're right, the difference is 585 points, and only if Nadal loses his very first match a runner-up result is sufficient for Fed!

Of course Federer could try and close the gap during the clay masters, but doing so already in Miami would make the task easier as Nadal could then end up in Djokovic's half in Madrid and/or Rome.

But looking at the draw, I doubt that Nadal will face any difficulties before the QF...

I'm just curious to see if he can carry his form through and how it matches up to ND.

I never thought for a moment he'd catch him by Miami and now that he's apparently only playing 2 clay events against Nadals 4 I would reverse my vote.

Yeah it does look like a bit of a mountain to climb.

But the task is going to be pretty tough for Nadal though.

To play 5 tournaments and retain or gain 3300 is not going to be easy. And if he does, which state will he be in for the FO?


Federer needs to score more than 1000 in 3 TMS he is going to play.

It's going to be very interesing, especially if Murray and Delpo can finally make their mark on clay.

bogbrush wrote:I never thought for a moment he'd catch him by Miami and now that he's apparently only playing 2 clay events against Nadals 4 I would reverse my vote.

Federer might do a last minute change and play the extra tournament in clay, it could be a surprise trick at the last minute.

I still think Fed wants to be fresh for the FO cause he still believes, that despite his record v Nadal on clay....he can beat him on clay over 5 sets. That's how champions think. Trust me I am one!...

yup, "everything to play for"

Fed has the little matter of Harrison to get past, first. The Yank is used to the court, having had a long three-setter, and could spring a surprise. Much more self-expectation on Fed in this tourney as he wasn't feeling great at the start in IW.

Seems that this "race to #2" is of much interest, and even Djokovic isn't that much ahead (even though he holds 3 Slams).

Just to repeat it once more:
Federer's points since the French 2011:
8,370

Nadal's points since the French 2011:
7,155 (this includes 280 Davis Cup points, which are currently excluded for some reason)

If Federer can widen the gap further in Miami (e.g. with a win vs. a semi for Nadal), then it puts a lot of pressure on Nadal to perform well in all those clay court events!

... it also shows that if Federer doesn't perform well in Miami and Rafa would reach the final or even win it, Fed can pretty much forget being #2 seed at the French Open this year.

Yes, but of course the real thing is the aim to be #1 after the USO. Here he has a very big chance, being miles ahead of anyone since the USO.

Getting to #2 would be useful as it carries the 50% chance of avoiding one of the other two (but let's not overlook Murray), but the real agenda isn't #2 by the French, it's winning a Slam and getting to 1 by the end of September - after all, he could be #2 and still have to face them both in every Slam.

I think it will require him to win one Slam, but I also think that if he did win that Slam, and provided he doesn't perform disasterously in either of the other two, he would indeed get the #1. I mean, it's not just what's in front of us - look at the disasterous USO swing before the openn; 90 points in Canada and 180 in Cincinatti!! He could easily find 1000+ extra there.

prostaff85 wrote:Seems that this "race to #2" is of much interest, and even Djokovic isn't that much ahead (even though he holds 3 Slams).

Just to repeat it once more:
Federer's points since the French 2011:
8,370

Nadal's points since the French 2011:
7,155 (this includes 280 Davis Cup points, which are currently excluded for some reason)

If Federer can widen the gap further in Miami (e.g. with a win vs. a semi for Nadal), then it puts a lot of pressure on Nadal to perform well in all those clay court events!

Do you mean since the FO included or exluding?

bogbrush wrote:Yes, but of course the real thing is the aim to be #1 after the USO. Here he has a very big chance, being miles ahead of anyone since the USO.

Getting to #2 would be useful as it carries the 50% chance of avoiding one of the other two (but let's not overlook Murray), but the real agenda isn't #2 by the French, it's winning a Slam and getting to 1 by the end of September - after all, he could be #2 and still have to face them both in every Slam.

I think it will require him to win one Slam, but I also think that if he did win that Slam, and provided he doesn't perform disasterously in either of the other two, he would indeed get the #1. I mean, it's not just what's in front of us - look at the disasterous USO swing before the openn; 90 points in Canada and 180 in Cincinatti!! He could easily find 1000+ extra there.

What is in my view really important in this race is that it's as much about Djoko and Rafa as Delpo and Murray. In the past they were sharing the points amongst the 3 of them but if they have to share them amongst 5, then it becomes a much closer affair with who-does-better-against-the-other-4 making a big difference.

We know Fed so far doesn't do well v Rafa and Djoko to a lesser extend but is doing ok versus Murray and Delpo.

I feel it's much closer between Delpo, Murray, Nadal and Djoko but more importantly those 4 can't quite win as effortlessly against each other as Federer can if in a good day.

So...again very interesting times.

Tenez wrote:
Do you mean since the FO included or exluding?

I mean including the points gained at the FO 2011 (because they are still valid when the seeding for FO 2012 is made).

prostaff85 wrote:

Tenez wrote:
Do you mean since the FO included or exluding?

I mean including the points gained at the FO 2011 (because they are still valid when the seeding for FO 2012 is made).

ok. thanks. Then the gap could be wider if Nadal fails to retain the FO.

Nadal for years has benefitted of being unbeaten on clay as it gave him a secured status of number 2 and prevented him to play Federer on the other surfaces when Federer was unbeatble in those. For instance Nalbandian, Davydenko had to deal with Federer before the final and often lost whereas they ould have gone further in the draw...maybe. If Nadal has now to share the clay points, then the number 2 ranking won't be a certitude for him at all.

Of course Nadal has a few points to defend over the clay season but there is nothing new in that. It's quite remarkable how consistant he has been in defending this part of the season over the years. Of course Nadal is great on clay but to regularly overcome such pressure requires a particular form of mental strength. He has often had to overcome a nemesis to do this. Federer, Soderling in 2010 FO final (remember when "everyone" said Soderling had Nadals number on clay) and now Djokovic.

There is no guarantee that he will do so again this year but I for one wouldn't rule it out. Federer could of course do well. By his standards he had a very poor clay season last year. He could gain 1,000 points on Nadal but IMO this will be a very tough ask... especially without playing Monte Carlo.

Whether Fed gets to #2 @ the French Open depends very much on how Miami goes for him, mainly because most of us will probably agree that Fed's chances of winning @ Madrid or Rome are slim. One thing that is overlooked is Monte Carlo, Djokovic didn't play there last year (injured) but if he's playing this year he could deprive Nadal of 400 points (although Djokovic will gain 1, 000 if he wins) which underlines that Nadal needs to at least make the final @ Miami if he wants to stay #2 regardless of Monte Carlo. I think there's an excellent chance Djokovic can beat Nadal @ Monte Carlo as it's a best of 3 sets match, and even with Nadal's fightback only a few months ago, in best of 3, I have no doubt Rafa loses to Djokovic.

Realistically, I think Fed's chances of getting to #2 before RG are 50/50. Losing points from Monte Carlo may not be that detrimental as he could pick up points @ Rome. They key for Fed is turning in consistently good results much as he did from 2005 to 2007 and in 2009. Anything less requires slip ups from Nadal and those slip ups are rare in the first 7 months of the year recently. He made the finals of the first five Masters 1000 series tournaments last year, which is why his defeat by Federer was a bit of a surprise last week. Although that doesn't indicate much, Nadal dominated 2010 and he exited Indian Wells and Miami @ the same stage back then.

The real questions for me and I imagine many Fed fans is whether we're witnessing a renaissance from Federer. Only a few things may suggest so (I believe):

a) He beats Nadal again meaning back to back wins for Federer (significant, not done by Fed since 2007)
b) He comes very close to No.1 if not actually taking it either after Wimbledon or the months following
c) He wins a grand slam again. Either Wimbledon (ideally) or the USO. Symbolically Wimbledon means the most (probably because I'm from London) but also his great success there.

I'll happily admit that achieving all 3 would really show that Fed is back and debunk the weak era 'theory' but it's more realistically appears as a wish list and I'll happily admit it. But.....what's on that list is very possible, the first one is important.

These posts time and time again refer to potential matches between the big four , or at least the big three. It merely shows just how tough it is at the top these days, with the top four rarely going out of tournaments before the semis and usually only losing to each other.
Time was when rivals could rely on one of the top guys slipping up early. But not only are the guys between 10 and 20 hardly ever beating the top four, the seeds 5-9 are not doing it much either.

hawkeye wrote: Federer, Soderling in 2010 FO final (remember when "everyone" said Soderling had Nadals number on clay) and now Djokovic.

Who is this "everyone" ? No one said Soderling had Nadal's numbers on clay. It was just one win, big win I agree, but only 1. It was a brilliant play from Soderling and he played great that day. To have someone's "numbers" one has to beat them consistently over a number of matches and convincingly. Soderling has never managed to do that against any top player. So he didn't really have anyone's numbers.

And no one is saying Djo has Nadal's numbers on clay. But "everyone" is saying Djo has Nadal's number not only on clay, but every where.

Tenez wrote:I still think Fed wants to be fresh for the FO cause he still believes, that despite his record v Nadal on clay....he can beat him on clay over 5 sets. That's how champions think. Trust me I am one!...

Wow really Tenez! Are you trying to hint that you're really a Slam winner?? Surely not...really...are you Sue Barker?