Super XV Week 5 Preview

After the opening four weeks of the 2012 Super XV 70% of matches have seen a team win by 7 points or less. Only the Highlanders remain unbeaten, and only the Rebels are yet to win a match.

Points table after round 4 https://i.servimg.com/u/f42/16/62/60/67/points11.png

Spoiler:

Australian Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Reds	4	3	1	0	0	93	74	19	1	13
2	Brumbies	3	2	1	0	1	65	69	4	1	13
3	Waratahs	4	1	3	0	0	93	83	10	4	8
4	Rebels	3	0	3	0	1	51	79	-28	2	6
5	Western Force	4	1	3	0	0	77	120	-43	1	5

New Zealand Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Highlanders	4	4	0	0	0	87	77	10	0	16
2	Chiefs	4	3	1	0	0	101	78	23	2	14
3	Hurricanes	4	2	2	0	0	119	105	14	2	10
4	Crusaders	3	1	2	0	1	62	69	-7	2	10
5	Blues	4	1	3	0	0	78	98	-20	1	5

South African Conference

Position	Team	Played	Wins	Losses	Draws	Byes	Points For	Points Against	Points Difference	Bonus Points	Total
1	Bulls	3	3	0	0	1	81	55	26	0	16
2	Stormers	3	2	1	0	1	92	61	31	2	14
3	Sharks	4	2	2	0	0	84	75	9	3	11
4	Lions	3	1	2	0	1	75	87	-12	1	9
5	Cheetahs	4	1	3	0	0	100	128	-28	2	6

Matches
Blues vs Hurricanes
The injury and suspension-hit Blues are currently sitting bottom of the New Zealand conference after a disappointing start to the 2012 season. The Hurricanes have performed better than expected so far; though they will be disappointed to have lost at home to the high-flying Highlanders last week.

For the Blues Isaia Toeava has been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his hip that looks like ending his season. Keven Mealamu (calf-strain), Luke Braid (suspension) and Rene Ranger (suspension) are all out, while Gareth Anscombe (nose fracture) drops to the bench meaning ex-Hurricane Piri Weepu starts at 10 inside Ma’a Nonu. Tony Woodcock is available for the first time this season and wingers David Raikuna and Rudi Wolf return from injury, but the Blues still have 3 Wider Training Group players on their bench.

By contrast the Hurricanes are virtually unchanged from last week, the only change could come at loosehead where Ben May is bracketed with Michael Bent,

Most of the UK bookmakers have the Blues as strong favourites, but personally I would tip the ‘Canes. Though over recent years both teams have been experts of doing the exact opposite of what’s expected of them. Hurricanes by 7.



Rebels vs Western Force
Melbourne sees a battle of the cellar-dwellers this week, the winless 13th placed Rebels host the last placed Force. The Rebels have a very classy backline, but their pack has been found wanting at times this season. A home loss to South African strugglers the Cheetahs last week will have wounded their pride. The Force upset the Waratahs in Sydney at the weekend and they will be keen to notch up another crucial away win in Melbourne.

Kurtley Beale is expected to miss another match for the Rebels with his calf strain, as is Stirling Mortlock, but Sale-bound Danny Cipriani is recovered from the flu and may well start after coming off the bench well at the weekend.

The Force have made two changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Waratahs with winger Nick Cummins returning and prop Pek Cowan rotating to the bench. Skipper David Pocock will be a key for the Force as they seek to starve the Rebels of possession.

Expect this to be a close one. Rebels by 2.


Waratahs vs Sharks
After a slightly disappointing start to the season the highly fancied Sharks find themselves in third in the South African conference as they start their four match Australasian tour in Sydney. The Waratahs will be smarting after their loss at home to the Force last week that leaves them third in the Australian conference, one spot behind the Sharks overall. The Sharks have not won in Sydney since 2000.

The Waratahs have delayed naming their starting side due to a number of injury concerns, but will welcome Wycliff Palu back to the side, and will be captained by prop Benn Robinson as Berrick Barnes is to move into fly half, displacing captain Daniel Halangahu. Brendan McKibbin starts at scrum half ahead of the impressive Sarel Pretorius.

The Sharks have injury concerns in their front row with both their tightheads, Jannie du Plessis and Wiehahn Herbst doubtful forcing them to fly in emergency cover, but du Plessis is named to start. Jandre Marais is rewarded with a start at lock after scoring in last week's win over the Reds. Freddie Michalak stays on the bench, while JP Pietersen is not quite fit enough to return to the playing 22.

On the “if in doubt pick the home team” rule, Waratahs by 5.

Crusaders vs Cheetahs
The Crusaders play their first match at Rugby League Park this weekend, their first match in Christchurch since 2010. After a couple of narrow losses before their bye last week, they need some home points at the expense of the Cheetahs. The Cheetahs managed to pick up their first win of the season in Sydney last week, but have never won a Super Rugby match in New Zealand and lie 2nd-to-last in the competition.

Daniel Carter is back in red and black for the first time this season and will come off the bench, while Israel Dagg moves to fullback after three matches on the wing with Sean Maitland and Zac Guildford on the wings. Tom Taylor moves in to first five eighth in place of the dropped Tyler Blayendaal while Ryan Crotty returns from injury at second five eighth. In the forwards Sam Whitelock returns at lock while his younger brother Sam takes older brother George’s number 6 jersey.

Naka Drotske has tinkered slightly with the side that beat the Waratahs, dropping WP Nel and Davon Raubanheimer. Heinrich Brussow will be a key man for Cheetahs up against Matt Todd.

As long as the Crusaders can overcome the emotions on their return to Christchurch they should win comfortably. Crusaders by 12.

Brumbies vs Highlanders
The unbeaten Highlanders fly to Canberra to take on the Brumbies this week, seeking to stay at the top of the table. The ACT side have picked up a pair of narrow wins at home in the early weeks, but lost to an injury time try in Hamilton last week. Jake White will be happy at sitting second in the Australian conference, given the team’s lack of star names.

The Brumbies have made minor changes to the side that lost to the Chiefs with Sam Carter returning at lock, pushing Peter Kimlin to the blindside flank.

Jimmy Cowan makes his first start of the season for the Highlanders pushing young star Aaron Smith to the bench. Ben Smith returns from injury at fullback, allowing Colin Slade to move up to first five eighth in place of Lima Sopoaga who injured his shoulder last week. James Haskell remains on the bench.

The Brumbies are always tough to beat at home, but this Highlanders team has the talent to do it. Highlanders by 7.

Bulls vs Reds
The injury-plagued Reds travel to Pretoria this week for a match that could be a real clash of styles. The Queenslanders sit at the top of the Australian conference though they have less competition points than the Bulls who are currently the second-placed South African side.

The Bulls welcome Francois Hougaard and Johan Saadie back from suspension and injury respectively in the only changes to the starting fifteen who beat the Blues.

The Reds on the other hand currently have three injured fly-halves in Quade Cooper, Mike Harris and Ben Lucas so they have been forced to call up rookie Dallan Murphy, regarded as a strong ball-runner. Luke Morahan replaces the suspended Digby Ioane in a massively re-jigged backline. The news is better in the forwards where Wallabies Saia Faingaa and Ben Daley return to the front row, and Rob Simmons is back at lock. Radike Samo drops to the bench as he will be covering both the back row and the outside backs on what Ewan McKenzie called a “four and a half-two and a half bench.”

Sadly the Reds’ injuries rather diminish what could have been a cracker of a match. Bulls by 10.

Lions vs Stormers
The Stormers are currently trailing the Highlanders on tries scored in the overall competition table, and they will be looking to keep the pressure on the southerners when they visit the injury-plagued Lions at Ellis Park. Promising New Zealand referee and former Chiefs’ first five eighth Glen Jackson will referee his second Super match after impressing in the Stormers vs Blues match last week.

John Mitchell has re-shuffled his backline this week, and has added scrum-half to his long list of positions plagued by injury. Butch James starts again at 10 with Elton Jantjes still injured, Tian Meyer replaces Michael Bondesio at 9 while Doppies la Grange moves in one to 12 and Jaco Taute shifts from 15 to 13.

The Stormers by contrast are unchanged, Allister Coetzee opting to retain the side that accounted for the Blues last week.

The Lions’ injury list suggests they will have a tough time this week, even though they are at home. Stormers by 7.

Bye:
Chiefs

That's this week's preview. Thoughts?

Can't add much more, Kiwi.