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France never to win a World Cup?

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emack2
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Post by Welshmushroom Thu 22 Mar 2012, 2:06 pm

I know everyone predicted France where going to do well this 6 Nations.......except me.

I'm really suprised PSA took the job. He was under pressure to perform from the outset and I think he's very aware that he won't get until the next World Cup if France don't perform. So I wasn't totally suprised he picked a lot of the players that he did. In truth though France needed to rebuild. A lot of their players have retired now that the 6 Nations is over and given the results and them finishing 4th he may regret not rebuilding earlier.

The one thing that is clear though is that French players (unlike any other nation tier 1 nation) play far to many games in an average season. PSA moaned about this prior to the kick off stating its difficult to prepare his team when they have played 40 matches in a season. He is right ofc.

Under the current aggreements there are no provisional releases for France. Clubs almost call the shots at this point in France. He mentioned after the last match against Wales that Gatland will know what this would feel like when French clubs start coming for his star players.

But this could end up with a greater problem for France, where are the next generation coming from if the French sides continue to fill their squads with multi national players? I dont envy PSA role because even if they unearth talent, chances are they will be over played and never conditioned properly.

Maybe its early doors but does anyone else think (unless the FRU step in) that France may actually never go on to win a World Cup? If not please feel free to give me your viewpoint.

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Post by Portnoy Thu 22 Mar 2012, 2:12 pm

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Post by Welshmushroom Thu 22 Mar 2012, 2:27 pm

LOL you are ofc right.

But Football is still waiting for England to win one so to fans that might seem like forever. The French club rugby model seems to share a similar state to the Football Premiership in that sense. Best leagues with the best players but to the detriment of their National setups.

Portnoy do you think the FRU will make the required changes or will it be too late once the French clubs become to rich?


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Post by beshocked Thu 22 Mar 2012, 2:32 pm

Welshmushroom wrote:LOL you are ofc right.

But Football is still waiting for England to win one so to fans that might seem like forever. The French club rugby model seems to share a similar state to the Football Premiership in that sense. Best leagues with the best players but to the detriment of their National setups.

Portnoy do you think the FRU will make the required changes or will it be too late once the French clubs become to rich?


Welshmushroom England have won a football world cup in 1966. Not sure how you missed that one! Doh

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Post by fa0019 Thu 22 Mar 2012, 2:38 pm

Any team that can take NZ to within a point at home in a RWC final will eventually win the world cup in my opinion.

They have a very large rugby base, seem to generate talent after talent and the union is one of the wealthiest. They have got to the SF at least of the RWC in the last 5 competitions so are always in the mix and probably always will be... its a matter of time.

FRA didn't not win the RWC11 because their setup was wrong, because they played too many games.... it was because they for the whole tournament they acted like you would expect from a French rugby team... totally unpredictable (even to each other) and more likely to beat each other up rather than the opposition.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Thu 22 Mar 2012, 7:04 pm

A team that has made 3 finals can certainly win a World Cup. SA has the best strike rate with 2 from 2 finals but if you can get as far as the final so many times, your time will come soon enough. France seems to be a team that has developed a big pack of forwards and is content to play conservatively and defend like demons and score enough points. That game plan is not always a good thing outside of the RWC but it works very well in a World Cup knockout situation. England similarly has reached three finals for one victory. Only 5 teams have made the final so those are healthy enough odds for France if they make another final.

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Post by emack2 Fri 23 Mar 2012, 6:58 am

How do you win a RWC?that may seem a stupid question.BUT you have to have
LUCK,with injuries and referee`s decisions.BUT most of all you have to win all your matches.
France are marginally THE most successful NH side versus all comers[a matter of 0.5% in it].They have shown little ability to do that in a RWC,it is theoretically
possible.To reach the final and win after losing in the group stages,BUT no one has done it to date.
France have twice beaten the All Blacks in a RWC,and twice failed to turn up in the following match.
The Top 14 has the biggest number of Overseas players of any league in NH.
I don`t know how many ply there trade outside France ,and if they are picked.
BUT only 55% of the Top14 players are qualified to play for France.
Too many matches? thats down to player rotation,squad depth etc.To be honest France has a squad of World Class players,but NOT as a team.
In the last two years,including the RWC they have seldom put on a top performance match on match.
In the last two RWC`s they produced two decent matches both against the AllBlacks.Referee`s decisions may have effected both matches,France had the
advantage of them 2007,not 2011.Referees tend to give 50/50 decisions to the home side in RWCs.
It is not enough,nor should it be to do just enough to reach the knock out stages.In a RWC as France did in 2007,and 2011 the draw in 2011 meant a virtual bye.Into the knockout stages for both NZ and France,but for France it was a close run thing.
The Final 2011,was enthralling and the closest yet,BUT neither side created anything much.It was played in mid field,the defences of both sides were
magnificent.The set piece battle was equal both losing one scrum and two
lineouts each.
I don`t quite know what to think about AllBlacks going into the game,Weepu had
strained a groin in the warm up.Cowan was out of form,Ellis not had enough
game time.Weepu usually a consistent kicker missed a lot in the Semi,and
patently could`nt do it in the Final.
Crudon and Dagg are both good goalkicks,they may well have converted at
least one of those missed.
Myself I think it was a ploy to disguise Piri`s injury so he would`nt be targetted
and hope for the best.There was a precedent D.B .Clarke pulled a hamstring v
Wales,stayed on and carried on with the Goal kicking.
France IF they approach the Tournament with the correct attitude to win EVERY
match.YES then they can win it,BUT not using the thinking of the last two RWC`s.

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Post by eirebilly Fri 23 Mar 2012, 7:12 am

Its a bit harsh to claim that France will never win a RWC, especially since they very nearly won the last one a few months back.
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Post by Biltong Fri 23 Mar 2012, 7:22 am

France in my opinion will always be the anomoly of world rugby.

In essence they have all the required elements.

Player base
Player depth
skill
money
The ability to perform above and beyond the expected to beat anyone.

You can just look at their record.


They have a better record against Ireland, Scotland, Wales, South Africa, New Zealand than England, which tells you they have the capability to beat any of the big teams.

It is only against Australia that they really struggle.

So it will come.
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Post by eirebilly Fri 23 Mar 2012, 8:01 am

Its just too hard to say whether any country will or wont win a RWC. I havent backed against NZ winning since 87 and yet they failed to do it until the last one Very Happy
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Post by beshocked Fri 23 Mar 2012, 11:23 am

biltongbek wrote:France in my opinion will always be the anomoly of world rugby.

In essence they have all the required elements.

Player base
Player depth
skill
money
The ability to perform above and beyond the expected to beat anyone.

You can just look at their record.


They have a better record against Ireland, Scotland, Wales, South Africa, New Zealand than England, which tells you they have the capability to beat any of the big teams.

It is only against Australia that they really struggle.

So it will come.

France don't have a better record against Scotland,Wales and South Africa than England - it's basically equal if not marginally in England's favour.

Crucially France struggle with England.

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Post by Welshmushroom Fri 23 Mar 2012, 12:05 pm

Yes France could have won the final last time round but I maintain that may have been their best chance. The key here is looking at whats happening with Clubs in France. For example if only half a dozen French players end up appearing in the HC each year (out of 6/7 teams) it will be to the detriment of France. If the French clubs continue to grow with money and power I cant see the French Union sort their International setup out.

The clubs already are bringing clauses in for Tier 2 Nation players where they cannot represent their countries as part of their contracts. If that ever replicates to Tier 1 Nations, I maintain France are finished.

With 3 being relegated and some top french sides in trouble (Perpignan & biarritz) you can see why they trying to keep them.

There was a period where sides like Stade & Tolouse developed quality French players regularly because no one could touch them. Due to the increase in benefactors and sponsors though there is a wider challenge of power. Thats basically forcing them to field seasoned players in order to stay at the top. When those guys get to old instead of the next batch of French stars to step into the void they just go out and replace them with ready made stars.

Essentially thats the key point. If Tolouse change their recruitment and stop playing the best French players around and copy the likes of Perpignan, Toloun, Clermont etc, PSA wont have a healthy choice of players to choose from. That cant be good for the long term future of the French team.

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Post by kiakahaaotearoa Fri 23 Mar 2012, 12:09 pm

Crucially in 2011 they didn´t struggle against England beshocked. At least in the first half. Whistle

I´d say making the final three times makes them more odds on favourite to win a World Cup than a team like Wales or Ireland that have never made a final. But anything is possible. The perennial "chokers" might even make it back-to-back wins.

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Post by Biltong Fri 23 Mar 2012, 12:19 pm

beshocked wrote:
biltongbek wrote:France in my opinion will always be the anomoly of world rugby.

In essence they have all the required elements.

Player base
Player depth
skill
money
The ability to perform above and beyond the expected to beat anyone.

You can just look at their record.


They have a better record against Ireland, Scotland, Wales, South Africa, New Zealand than England, which tells you they have the capability to beat any of the big teams.

It is only against Australia that they really struggle.

So it will come.

France don't have a better record against Scotland,Wales and South Africa than England - it's basically equal if not marginally in England's favour.

Crucially France struggle with England.

Beschocked, sorry I forgot to sate in the professional era.
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Post by majesticimperialman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 7:03 pm

I think France have a better chance of winning a Rugby World Cup than Wales do.

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Post by Taylorman Sat 24 Mar 2012, 8:48 pm

France have been in a Wcup final or 3-4 play off in every Wcup bar one (91). Equalled only by NZ.

No one else has come within a mile of being that consistent outside the winners though evenn they havnt showed up in several last fours.

France will certainly win a World cup. Just a matter of time.

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Post by emack2 Sat 24 Mar 2012, 10:26 pm

For me the problem with a RWC is this,the seeding which is obviously a Commercially required service.Every team knows what it needs to do
to win a RWC.This year 4 years before the next Rwc the Tier one sides. Will
be able to calculate there way to the Final IN THEORY.
To take 2011 as an example,the 4 groups. Had 3 with the SH giants and Tier
1NH side,plus a Group of Death.[same applied2007]
Theory says all 3 SH sides will progress,and 5 of the 6 Tier 1 NH sides OR Argentina,or a Pacific Nation Country.
IF every thing goes to plan then they know there QF,SF,and Final opponents and can plan accordingly.This is of course a simplistic view because EVERY RWC
includes a shock result.
Ireland beating Australia mean`t all 3 SH sides knocked each other out,thus
giving a NH side a straight run to the Final.
In the NZ Group,there was no way that NZ,or France would fail to qualify,though
France made hard work of it.
With respect France have not been consistent,they have made the SF every
RWC bar 1,and 3 FInals.
BUT in at least 2 of those they failed to win there group,and only just qualified.
To date the RWC has required the winner to win EVERY match,until another side
can do that.Then I fear the same names will be on the Cup,there is no reason
why ANY team.
Given the right draw can`t win it by NOT having to meet ALL the top 3 sides
in the IRB ratings.THAT is the beauty of Knockout Rugby.

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Post by Taylorman Mon 26 Mar 2012, 12:24 am

Perhaps,
For me pool play shouldn't matter a huge difference.
All it does is delays when they meet or would prefer to meet their nemesis.

If we meet SA, France or Oz last 8- so be it. These teams have waited 4 years to attend this knowing they'll have to front up with their best game- and that should come from the last 8 on anyway.

The pools are generally seeded fairly enough so as to not make it impossible for any of the usual suspects to make it through. From there its all on.

Hiding behind a security blanket of last 8 and semi before you meet team X etc is meek. After 4 years whats one or two extra weeks going to prove?

The Wcup hasn't 'required' the winner to win all its pool games- that's just how they have ended up.


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Post by Biltong Mon 26 Mar 2012, 7:03 am

I agree all the pool play can do it ensure one r perhaps two easier games en route to the final.

Take last RWC, Wales, England, France and Ireland all due to one unlikely win by Ireland against Oz put all the NH contenders on the same side of the draw.

Apart from SA in 1995, no other team had to beat both Australia and New Zealand or any other combination of these three to win the tournament.
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Post by eirebilly Mon 26 Mar 2012, 7:06 am

biltongbek wrote:I agree all the pool play can do it ensure one r perhaps two easier games en route to the final.

Take last RWC, Wales, England, France and Ireland all due to one unlikely win by Ireland against Oz put all the NH contenders on the same side of the draw.

Apart from SA in 1995, no other team had to beat both Australia and New Zealand or any other combination of these three to win the tournament.

As much as i hate to agree with this but its spot on. One game is all it takes in the group stages to open things up.
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