The National

Cheltenham has been and gone,headlines made for good and bad reasons,Champions crowned and former Champions dethroned.The NH fan now has eyes only for Aintree in three weeks time and the second major Spring Festival,the culmination of which is the most iconic race in the calendar,the Grand National.Regardless of how much you win or lose throughout the year its always a bragging right to say "i backed the National winner",what are your do's and dont's,your formula for finding the winner? Heres what i look for.
1.Sound Jumper;clever,economical jumper,not a stand off outside the wings merchant nor a get in tight and pop it type,something that gets from one side to the other with the minimum of fuss and effort.
2.Strong Traveller;you must do it all on the bridle,getting your lugs scrubbed off after a circuit means your a no goer.You must travel,whether its up with the pace or buried away in the pack.
3.Winner over 3 miles;this is paramount,the old adage that a good 2m4 horses will go well in the National is utter rubbish.
4.Freshness;you need a horse that comes here without being overfaced during the current season,horses that have taken this after a full campaign are few and far between.
5.Rating;you need a horse thats being given a chance by the Handicapper,i totally ignore something thats rocketed up the ratings for winning a handful during the season,they dont win the National.Dont always fall for the "horses with 11 stone or more dont win",they do but just not very often.I look between 10-05 and 10-12.
6.Course form;dont go for the horses for courses thing around here,for every one horse that performs well over these fences time and time again theres a couple of dozen that dont.
You have to take the ground on trust but the weather looks set fair and with the Aintree executive almost certain to turn on the taps then slow side of good looks a safe bet.

Using some of the above and what ive seen with my own eyes this season then two that scream at me are TREACLE and CAPPA BLEU.The former ran the eyecatcher of all time when third in grade one company last time out,he wasnt put into the race at all and his season and form profile look to have been geared solely toward this.The latter has run some very solid races in decent handicaps,the stable know what it takes to go well in this,State of Play has performed with great credit in the last tow or three renewals and with this fella having the same connections then rest assured they are pretty certain he has what it takes.Ive had small ews on the pair at 20s.

Or you could just get a pin and........

Just kidding very nice article and not much I can add. Pity there's not more users on here to read it and contribute to it. Haven't looked at The National at all yet but will be back once I do.. Have got lucky and had a few winners in recent years.

Surely Synchronised is the one to be on.

Lightly raced, won the Gold Cup.

its main target all season has been the National.

And of course, AP.

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:Surely Synchronised is the one to be on.

Lightly raced, won the Gold Cup.

its main target all season has been the National.

And of course, AP.

I don't think I'd equate a grueling 3m2 around Cheltenham, where he was never really travelling and had to dig deep to win to him being lightly raced. He'll barely have had a month to recover and carrying top weight I wouldn't be backing him.

SetupDeterminesTheMotion wrote:Surely Synchronised is the one to be on.

Lightly raced, won the Gold Cup.

its main target all season has been the National.

And of course, AP.

Its been a long time since we have had a double winner of the Gold Cup and National. Has it had enough time to recover from the Gold Cup?

Sychronised did not jump very well depsite his Gold Cup win. If he had problems with the fences at Cheltenham, then they are likely to be exacerbated at Aintree surely?

liverbnz wrote:Sychronised did not jump very well depsite his Gold Cup win. If he had problems with the fences at Cheltenham, then they are likely to be exacerbated at Aintree surely?

During the race, Tony was giving him reminders very early on and I thought he looked spent. Proved me wrong like but I agree he didnt jump very well.

I wouldn't touch Sychronised at all in this race, doesn't jump or travel anywhere near well enough for me. Won a very poor Gold Cup and would be astonished if he gets anywhere near another, handicap horse for me at best. To many things against him i the national for me.

I'll put a write up of how I whittle down my national contenders in the next few days. I had it down to 8 horses last year and had the 1,2,4 within the 8. Just a crying shame I was only on the 2nd e/w.

While I don't think Synchronised will win, I do think he has more in his favour this year than previous Gold Cup winners have had with there being four weeks between Cheltenham and the National meeting and with the ground almost certain to be good, it will surely help the top weights.

Only Golden Miller has won both races in the same year and that was back in the 1930s so it would be good story for racing if Synchronised could do it this year. L'Escargot won both races in the 1970s but not in the same year (beating Red Rum in the 1975 Grand National). Garrison Savannah came close in the 1990s for Jenny Pitman just being pipped at Aintree by Seagram while Rough Quest went on to win the Grand National after finishing second in the 1996 Gold Cup.

I have only had a quick look at the runners for this year's race but do like Seabass.

Good horses will always adapt to the National fences.
Synchronised is a good horse, no handicapper now that it beat last year's young winner. But Long Run is a different story for another day.


A champion and double Group 1 winner.No mug is Synchronised.

And what about not having much time to recover from The Gold Cup or the fact he's going to be lugging around top weight? Or is it just hes a good horse so he'll win?

I just have to look at the 2nd horse in that Gold Cup, his proximity to the winner and how he out stayed Long Run in the straight to see it was a very poor renewal.

While the gap between the National and Gold Cup being the longest I can remember there's horses I would have fancied better than Synchronised even before that GC win in handicap terms, the GC has just made it worse for him.

Even if Synchronised does do the double,the fact remains that he is absolutely shocking value to do so.Everything is stacked against him,the hard race at Cheltenham,the weight he has concede and the fact that he doesnt do the two basic things you need around Aintree....jump clean and travel sweet.Apart from all them hes a certainty

If i had to choose one from the top end of the weights then i'd side with Neptune Collonges.He fits the criteria required on every level,he jumps well,he travels,hes won over 3m,hes fresh and if the top ones stay in then 11-06 looks a fair mark.His Haydock run behind Giles Cross was an admirable effort as he had a welter burden,was conceding lots of weight all round and the ground was desperate.He likes the Spring and looks to have been aimed at this all season.There are certainly worse 33/1 shots in this years renewal.

I think the faster pace of the Gold Cup would have done for a normal stayer, but AP pushed & shoved to keep Synchronised in the hunt,
producing him majestically at the last to scoot past the leaders.


I think with the slower run race at Aintree, this will help his jumping & it will be right up his street.

Dont fancy Synchronised for the National at all but anything can happen i suppose. Hoping i can get back on the winning saddle at Aintree, Cheltenham was a shocker for myself. Ive backed Calgary Bay at 25-1 EW allready for National really think it can win this year. Capp Bleu is another to have caught my eye, but i need to have a proper look soon i guess to whittle down my selections

My ante post portfolio comprised of Prince De Beauchene after his run in the Troytown at Navan at 33's and Cappa Bleu after the Welsh National at 28's.

Prince De Beauchene's withdrawal was rough but thats antepost for you.

Today i decided to back another horse to add to my enjoyment and using the ideal that the ground should be heavily watered in an effort to avoid last years contraversies. I feel the GILES CROSS begins to make up as an outstanding each way bet.

He frontruns which can negate both trouble in running and the worry of getting ran off his feet on the quicker ground. He reminds me very much of Black Apalachi who ran screamers in 2009 2010. Heres hoping he can be bang there at the last and help me recover from the previous nights excess on Merseyside.

Can certainly see Giles Cross giving you a good spin for your money.Shame O regan cant ride as he seems to get a real tune out of him as his sympathetic handling seems to suit.Just thought that he emptied at Chepstow and at Haydock he was on the limit,he reminds me of Big Fella Thanks in that he will look like hes hacking but when push comes to shove he doesnt find.If hes on the bridle at the last hes a massive player,if hes off it he has no chance.

The softening ground at Aintree looks like being a massive factor come the weekend.Ground is the most important factor in any race but stamina sapping terrain around this demanding course puts the criteria required into a totally different light.When it does ride soft or worse then i do go back to looking at horses with less than 11-00,asking a horse to carry that weight or more for 4m4 in bad ground is a huge task irrespective of their ability.Look back at bad ground Nationals and its a lightweights race when conditions are testing,Earth Summit,Red Marauder,out and out stayers with low weights.As usual the bookies dont miss a trick and the mudlarks in this years field have shortened accordingly,to the point of there being no value whatsoever left in many of the competitors.I do however think that one is still a remarkable price given his record.....State Of Play.Three valiant attempts in this race have shown that nothing he faces on Saturday will phase him and with the ground slowing by the day it means that they wont get away from him like in previous years.He will finish to good effect and although its pushing the boat out to see him actually winning, i do think he can make his prescence felt.

On the going it looks like it will firm up somewhat before Sat, I'd imgaine you'll be looking at G/S ground.

I've narrowed down my selections to 5 horse based on the major trends, the contenders are.

Rare Bob
Killyglen
Sunnyhillboy
Chicago Grey
According to Pete

Not made my finally decision on which of the 5 will be my picks, will need to do some more analysis on previous going form.

Dass wrote:On the going it looks like it will firm up somewhat before Sat, I'd imgaine you'll be looking at G/S ground.

I've narrowed down my selections to 5 horse based on the major trends, the contenders are.

Rare Bob
Killyglen
Sunnyhillboy
Chicago Grey
According to Pete

Not made my finally decision on which of the 5 will be my picks, will need to do some more analysis on previous going form.

Some woman walked into my local bookies a couple of weeks back and put a load on Killyglen.

West End Rocker and Giles Cross have been big market movers since the rain came down. Interestingly Sychronised's two previous 'national' wins came on soft and heavy going.

The ground will almost certainly ride slow side of good on the National course for the first day,it will get opened up in the Foxhunters,ground thats been opened up dries quicker if theres no rain but conversely softens quicker if it does rain .Showers are forecast for all days so im banking on good to soft as a whole.It isnt going to be the real slog i thought it was going to be earlier in the week but as long as soft appears in the going then it will take a deal of seeing out.Havent seen any reason to alter my first thoughts on the race,TREACLE and CAPPA BLEU look to fit all the criteria but of course you need a massive dose of good luck along the way.

Don't see Giles Cross staying the distance, I'm also not sure he has much of the bridle. I don't thing denis is on board either which is a negative for me. I think he will travel like the winner for most of the race though barring any problems in running.

I like AP's comments this mprning on the beeb.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/17696652

It's damn sad that the favorite Synchronised died after falling at the 6th fence, but I have accepted the argument that this is part of horse racing. They can look to improve safety etc and I support all that, but ultimately it is part of horse racing - an industry that breeds horses for the purpose of racing.

Anyway good to see Neptune Collonge win, this horse has been touted as a good national hunt horse for some time.

A race that captures the nation will no doubt divide the nation,ecstacy and agony for all the public to gaze upon,racing on the back pages for the right reasons and racing on the front pages for the wrong reasons.Wonderful,pulsating renewal on the run in,heart wrenching numbness for those prostrate out in the country.Its obvious from the tv coverage that Jonjo had no idea that behind some green tarpaulin in a quiet corner of Merseyside Synchronised was paying the ultimate price,as he was urging on the gallant Sunnyhillboy.The Aintree Gods have not been kind to the amiable Irishman,his riding record was poor and until Dont Push It came along it looked like he was destined never to taste sweet victory,Clan Royal found almost every way to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory.and there is also the enduring,horrible memory of another Gold Cup winner,Alverton,laying stock still after his fatal fall in 79...yes you guessed it...ridden by Jonjo.The demise of According to Pete is just as awful,a family bred "pet",owned by the Nelsons,who live and breath National Hunt racing.His injury was unfortunately there for all to see as he rose from his slip,his hind leg "swinging"....truly horrific.These two warriors have paid the absolute ultimate whilst taking part in an event for our entertainment and for all that im hardened to it,ive had two put down,it still doesnt make the whole thing any easier to swallow.Horses break down every day but on this day when racing takes centre stage in the sporting spectrum,the glare of such trageides always seems twice as bright.
On the track it was as thrilling a race as the National has ever provided.Six or seven in with some sort of chance from three out and right until the last stride the outcome was still up in the air.Must admit that i was willing Seabass to victory,Katie Walsh and Nina Carberry are the best ladies to ride over jumps and surely its only a matter of time before a female jock gets the elusive first national winner.Seabass just didnt have any legs in the last 250yds,he was a bit free early on and that might have cost him in the closing stages but no doubt he'll be back next year for another crack.One of my wagers,Cappa Bleu,ran a screamer to finish fourth and having watched the race again a couple of times i have to say that but for finding every bit of trouble going he would have been a deal closer.He seemed to run over every faller or unshipped rider going and he was even half taken out on the flat after second Canal Turn.He looks a ready replacement for the stables other stalwart,State of Play.The front two,Sunnyhillboy and Neptune Collonges both deserve every credit going,in many ways a dead heat would have been a fairer result as they have both given their all and more.The former has youth on his side and will no doubt be trained with this event in mind next season,the latter has taken this as a bit of a swansong in the twilight of his career,if he was mine he'd be retired tomorrow.Hes ran against the best,won grade ones and now a National,his job is done,he deserves a place in a quiet field where he can be pampered.
Of the also rans i thought Hello Bud ran a screamer for a 14 yo,up there all the way it was only from two out that he began to feel the pinch and Planet of Sound ran with credit,he raced with the choke out for the best part of a circuit,if hes produced less fresh next season then he may have a bigger run in him.

Nice summary and tribute (including the human angle) Wouldn't be surprised to find you writing for a newspaper (?).

Superb eulogy there, touching to read.

I was on Seabass ante post and thought Katie Walsh was going to win coming over the last.

A good battle to the finish and good to see a grey horse win for the first time in 50 odd years. Neptune Collonges is a classy horse and a deserved winner.

I can maybe see a rule coming in that would stop loose horses from starting races.

Super summary there Racingnut, and what a race by Neptunes Collognes more than made up for my terrible week at Cheltenham by getting back in the winning seat at Aintree. I love the Grand National

In a BBC report it says that Synchronised fractured its leg, while running free, five fences after its initial fall, that is he was fine after his initial fall at Bechers Brook. "Synchronised came down at the course's fearsome Becher's Brook. He ran on without his rider but suffered a fractured leg five fences later." http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/17717420

What Aintree and the powers thats be can do about a horse injuring itself after falling then running free im not quite sure.The same fate befell a horse two or three seasons back and although im ready to be corrected on this one,i do believe that Aintree put more "run off" areas in to allow loose horses to get off the main track and into the in field.Synchroniseds' fate was a pure accident,all the risk assesments and good work practice in the world couldnt account for the turn of events that needed to fall into place for such an horrific outcome.The accident that lead to According to Petes demise was quite literally a racing incident.Lets be clear,he didnt fall of his own volition,he was brought dow,tripped up,whatever you want to call it and the crumpling fall that ensued lead to his fractured hind leg.Unfortunately his injury was there in HD colour for all to see,he tried to gallop away on three and a "swinger"...awful.In many ways i feel more sympathy for the Nelsons who owned and bred this fella,he was a family pet,almost one of the family and they probably had a closer bond with this lad than the Oneiils/Mcmanus' had with Synchronised purely because of the number of horses the respective people have interests in.Not for a moment am i saying that the Jackdaws Castle crew wont grieve for their lad,i just think the bond will be closer,more personal with the smaller time owner and training establishment.
Hope and prey that we dont get knee jerk reactions to these tragic events,the do gooders,the once a year racing knockers will have plenty to say but where are these people when horses are paying the ultimate price at places like Sedgefield,Hexham,Carlisle or Kelso on some cold Tuesday afternoon in the middle of Winter? Nowhere to be seen or heard,they come to the surface on National day ever year,almost willing there to be an accident so they can bang their own particular drum.I didnt hear their drums being banged about making the Derby a safer race a few seasons back when Horatio Nelson fractured his leg two out in front of a multi million globe wide TV audience.Any racing comes with a certain amount of danger but like many things in life it also comes with elements that cant be legislated for and you cant eliminate all risk no matter how much you want to,what happened yesterday was a chain of events that couldnt have been forseen,a pure accident with no one to blame.

Reading about how the owner waited in vain for According to Pete to finish was so sad. Not an anti-horse racing type myself but will think twice before betting on the race from now on.

Nore Staat wrote:Nice summary and tribute (including the human angle) Wouldn't be surprised to find y
ou writing for a newspaper (?).

Thanks for the compliment,wanted to be a racing journalist but im afraid the important academic years of my formative life passed me by somewhat.the secondary school i attended had a bookmakers situated a stones throw from the main entrance! Im passionate about the sport,i live and breath it,ive seen it from every angle,ive met some brilliant people,been to some wonderful places and had times that money couldnt buy,yeah,im lucky,im just a working class lad whos lived the dream.Cheltenham,Liverpool,Royal Ascot,York,July Meeting,had runners at them all but thats just part of the story.Ive seen this game from all sides and i reckon i have a good grasp of how racing people think and i just try to express that as best i can.I will defend this sport to the hilt when defending it is what it needs but i will also be its most scathing critic.Impartiality in any sport is no bad attribute and i think you have to be as "down the middle" as you can be when you follow a sport thats as political as this wonderful pastime.

I think the most important part of being a racing journalist is passion, knowledge and ability to create text that is interesting to read - and I think you have that. It seems that everything nowadays requires a university degree, but experience and passion should not be underestimated.

Maybe you could look around to see if there are any local or regional newspapers / magazines willing to accept say a weekly column on the racing week. I also have a sense there might be a book in you .

ps: of course for journalists, keeping to "deadlines" is essential, but a review of the racing week, and a look ahead to the next week shouldn't put too much of a strain in terms of deadline (?).

This was the top rated comment posted on the BBC report "Grand National: According to Pete owner will not return"

62._Ewan_
16th April 2012 - 11:02
You know what it feels like when you stumble off a kerb you didn't notice? Becher's Brook is a drop fence, meaning the ground level is a further down after the fence than before it, the horses can't see that because there's a fence in the way, so this is literally setting them up for a fall.

It would be nasty to do that to anyone, but to do it to animals that a fall can kill is utterly heartless.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-17719966

Belcher's Brook was where According to Pete fractured his leg and where Synchronised fell unseating AP McCoy. So my question is should the Belcher's Brook fence be altered?

I really dont think that Aintree could modify itself any more than it already has.Bechers has been levelled off,the ditch has been filled in and the landing side used to taper back towards the ditch,this also has been levelled out so horses cant slide into it.The sighting boards on the take offs have all recently been updated and the presentation of the actual fences is as good as anywhere that you are likely to find.The fields for recent renewals are of a very high standard,long gone are the days of poor quality horseflesh taking part.The only two things that i can think of as offering some assistance is bigger fences and artificially altered ground.Bigger fences would certainly slow the field down but did speed contribute to Saturdays unfortunate events? Over watered ground would also slow the field but ive always been against manufactured going,let the Good Lord decide the going! Speed in itself didnt really have a bearing on Saturday,Synchronised had one of those slithering,sliding sort of falls,they unfortunately tend to do most damage,for what reason i dont know,im not veternary qualified,if somebody can explain then please pop a post up on the subject.According to Pete just had his legs whipped from under him by a fallen counterpart and he landed heavily but this could happen on any course,in any race,at any time,to say this was caused by something unique in the National would be wrong and almost certainly knee jerk.What racing needs now is cool heads,to work through the possible changes,make things safer if possible but also make sure that the National still retains its unique sit in the sporting world.