The Jeff run-in

Another exciting prospect in view:

Current table:

Sunday, 22 April 2012 15:54 UK
Team P W D L F A BP PTS
1 Harlequins 21 16 1 4 502 379 5 71
2 Leicester 21 14 1 6 619 472 12 70
3 Saracens 21 15 1 5 449 328 6 68
4 Northampton 21 13 0 8 497 360 8 60
5 Exeter 21 12 0 9 414 381 11 59
6 Sale 21 10 0 11 443 514 9 49
7 Bath 21 9 0 12 362 384 8 44
8 Gloucester 21 8 1 12 438 455 10 44
9 London Irish 21 7 1 13 462 498 11 41
10 Worcester 21 7 1 13 308 406 6 36
11 Wasps 21 6 0 15 353 488 8 32
12 Newcastle 21 5 2 14 337 519 4 28


Sunday, 25 March 2012 17:01 UK

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	BP	PTS
1	Harlequins	18	14	1	3	412	300	4	62
2	Saracens	18	13	1	4	393	282	5	59
3	Leicester	18	11	1	6	498	405	9	55
4	Northampton	18	11	0	7	432	304	8	52
5	Exeter	18	10	0	8	350	326	9	49
6	Gloucester	18	8	1	9	375	376	8	42
7	Sale	18	8	0	10	384	464	8	40
8	Bath	18	8	0	10	330	330	7	39
9	London Irish	18	6	1	11	407	436	10	36
10	Worcester	18	7	1	10	253	307	5	35
11	Wasps	18	5	0	13	298	414	7	27
12	Newcastle	18	3	2	13	283	471	3	19

Remaining fixtures:

Bath: http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=241;template=fixtures
Chiefs http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=386;template=fixtures
Glaws http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=243;template=fixtures
Quins http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=244;template=fixtures
Tigers http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=246;template=fixtures
Irish http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=247;template=fixtures
Wasps http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=248;template=fixtures
Newcastle http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=249;template=fixtures
Saints http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=250;template=fixtures
Sharks http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=251;template=fixtures
Sarries http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=252;template=fixtures
Wuz http://www.espnscrum.com/premiership-2011-12/rugby/series/142402.html?team=253;template=fixtures

have got LI (h), Wuss (a), Saints (h) & Sarries (a) - 6-10 table points from those remaining 4 games seems a reasonable guestimate, which would ensure Heino rugby for us next year - for a team supposedly meant to be suffering from 'second season syndrome', that alone would be one helluva an achievement. To be involved in the playoffs this year in any shape or form is almost certainly a stretch too far, requiring other teams to slip up along the way

To me, there are three main groups:

Quins-Chiefs : Playoff places

Glaws-Wuz : HEC places

Wasps - Newcastle : relegation (although already probably sorted)


As with the last round of knockout games in Europe, the ever-changing 'position as it stands' as the games unfold could provide gripping either on telly or with radio/mobile feeds into grounds.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote: have got LI (h), Wuss (a), Saints (h) & Sarries (a) - 6-10 table points from those remaining 4 games seems a reasonable guestimate, which would ensure Heino rugby for us next year - for a team supposedly meant to be suffering from 'second season syndrome', that alone would be one helluva an achievement. To be involved in the playoffs this year in any shape or form is almost certainly a stretch too far, requiring other teams to slip up along the way

There's many a slip twixt cup and lip As.

Good luck.

Quins run in -
Sarries, Wasps, Tigers, Sale
With a SF away to Toulon straight after the Sarries wembley game.

Quins will be knackerd come the end of the season.
Sarries are the only other team still competing in a Euro competition.

I have been really impressed by Exeter. Not been attracting the headlines like some of the other clubs but slowly building strong yet sustainable foundations.

Almost a complete contrast to my own club.

Aslongasbut100ofus I think you could reach the playoffs. Saints (h) will be important and Leicester will probably have to do you a favour.

Saints and Tigers have run ins with Euro rest weeks and are in better form than Quins. I think Quins could potentially slip out of the the top two should they suffer a bit of bad luck in the final games.

Sarries I'm not sure about, the injuries to their backrow could be telling with so many big games to play before the end of the season. If Burger and Brown were fit I'd tip them to finish top and beat Clermont but minus the flankers I think their impact may be slightly reduced. The game vs Sale was a serious show of intent, who said the Sarries backline couldn't attack?

Sam,
I think you are right there. I cant see Sarries slipping much, but Quins are not great at the moment.
They will be re-invigorated should they nick a win or draw at wemb. But loose that and the heads will dip a bit further.

Quins dont have the squad to fight it on both fronts. Clegg may have to start some of these games to keep Nick Evans fresh.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Saints and Tigers have run ins with Euro rest weeks and are in better form than Quins. I think Quins could potentially slip out of the the top two should they suffer a bit of bad luck in the final games.

Sarries I'm not sure about, the injuries to their backrow could be telling with so many big games to play before the end of the season. If Burger and Brown were fit I'd tip them to finish top and beat Clermont but minus the flankers I think their impact may be slightly reduced. The game vs Sale was a serious show of intent, who said the Sarries backline couldn't attack?

And will Ben Youngs be cited Sam? That could be a page-turner. Along with the Saints' problems in that area.

Reckon it'll finish:

Quins
Leicester
Sarries
Exeter
---------------
Saints
Glaws
---------------
Sale
Irish
Bath
Wuss
Wasps
Falcons

beshocked wrote:I have been really impressed by Exeter. Not been attracting the headlines like some of the other clubs but slowly building strong yet sustainable foundations.

Almost a complete contrast to my own club.

Aslongasbut100ofus I think you could reach the playoffs. Saints (h) will be important and Leicester will probably have to do you a favour.

beshocked, think you're right, but in all honesty, not at all worried about the playoffs, would just be delighted for us to secure Heino rugby next year. Also really looking forward to the Amlin qf away to Stade Francais, but even that is simply icing - the key for me is the way that we are playing at the moment, stong pack with adventure in the backs - great to watch

EnglishReign wrote:Reckon it'll finish:

Quins
Leicester
Sarries
Exeter
---------------
Saints
Glaws
---------------
Sale
Irish
Bath
Wuss
Wasps
Falcons

Sadly i agree....

And will Ben Youngs be cited Sam? That could be a page-turner. Along with the Saints' problems in that area

1 week maybe 2 weeks max. It if it was just the failed punches then I think they wouldn't have bothered but the knee he uses to get Gibson off him (knee to the chest) will probably sway the citing commissioner into acting. Expect reductions for provocation and for previous good behaviour. Allinson may join him in the dock, his right hand goes up to Young's eye area in a Cueto style push.

Tigers have Young fit, Grindal playing alright and Harrison returning from injury. They'll survive for a week or two without Benny if needs be.

I have been really impressed by Exeter. Not been attracting the headlines like some of the other clubs but slowly building strong yet sustainable foundations

I also agree with this. Potential dark horses that can count on the support of the neutral fans should they reach Twickers for the final (Twickers is normally 40%+ neutral fans on playoff final day).

Geordie, don't think you'll get a reprieve this year but with the way the promotion play offs are going Bristol still have a lot to do but deserve their chance, don't know if Welsh can meet the Prem requirements and Carnegie are stumbling their way through at the moment so at this stage I'm still favouring Bristol. Given their season's performance it shouldn't come down to this but that's the way it's run so just have to live with it.

Aw we deserve to go down because we havent won games...simple as that.

Ironically, being relegated should rejuvenate the team...and with Deano coming in I would expect us to bounce straight back up.

It will be interesting to see what the crowd numbers are for us next season,

aitchw Bedford Blues could be Newcastle's saviour.

Sam I think getting to the AP final might be too far for Exeter this season. Top 4 certainly isn't out of the quesion though.

Aslongasbut100 Exeter seem to have no fear which makes you dangerous. You have taken numerous good scalps over the last two seasons.

Big game obviously for Sarries and Quins. Agree with Sam that the backrow is important.Hopefully the youngsters step up.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Aw we deserve to go down because we havent won games...simple as that.

Ironically, being relegated should rejuvenate the team...and with Deano coming in I would expect us to bounce straight back up.

It will be interesting to see what the crowd numbers are for us next season,

What goes around comes around GF.

Tigers are a major consumer of Newcastle resources. But at last, there is a kind of payback (albeit through a number of middlemen) from the strength of the Tigers.

I lived in Newcastle for more than four years so I had a strong bond with Gosforth. I really wish the Geordies well in the run in.

Certainly more than the Wasps who never won a league - ever.

C'mon Deano!

A lot will depend on your player base for next season. We only retained a few senior players and finances plus different approach has meant building from scratch with a young team. Can't always be done in one season though like us you have a good academy. Deano at least has the credentials unlike Back so we are likely going to have a right old tussle with you guys next season.

Beshocked, Bedford aren't that convincing to my mind. We've beaten them home and away and drawn in the first pool game. Don't see them challenging Bristol but then, this is rugby and anything can happen on the day.

Sam I think getting to the AP final might be too far for Exeter this season. Top 4 certainly isn't out of the quesion though.

If they scrape into the top 4 then anything can happen. Exeter have good set pieces and a well drilled team, they are a handful for every team. They will be very much the under dogs wherever the travel to but in a one off game with everything to play for then the teams on paper are rarely the whole of the story.

Quite a umber of the players have signed new long term deals such as Hogg and Gopperth who have signed 3 year deals.

Mr Kurdi our new chairman looks very ambitious and players seem to be willing to take a chance.

aitchw so the team who came above you in the normal league (2nd to your 6th) and are currently above you in the playoffs are not contenders? Fair enough. Maybe they won't beat Bristol but don't write them off. Unbeaten in their last 6 games.

Not writing them off at all but can't see them beating Bristol. Yes, they did finish higher than us and deservedly so, just looking at current form in the play offs they aren't that convincing. Carnegie aren't anywhere near good enough for the Jeff as they stand but we should have beaten them again on Sunday, inexperience telling again. It'll be fun at Bedford next week that's for sure.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quite a umber of the players have signed new long term deals such as Hogg and Gopperth who have signed 3 year deals.

Mr Kurdi our new chairman looks very ambitious and players seem to be willing to take a chance.

Another Sir John Hall GF?

He was a speculative chancer.

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quite a umber of the players have signed new long term deals such as Hogg and Gopperth who have signed 3 year deals.

Mr Kurdi our new chairman looks very ambitious and players seem to be willing to take a chance.

That's great news for you guys. Back got a lot wrong in our 2 seasons up there and it's been a big set back. Not a big fan of Deano but he certainly knows his stuff. Falcons are very lucky to have him on board.

Portnoy wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quite a umber of the players have signed new long term deals such as Hogg and Gopperth who have signed 3 year deals.

Mr Kurdi our new chairman looks very ambitious and players seem to be willing to take a chance.

Another Sir John Hall GF?

He was a speculative chancer.

No i wouldnt say he was a John Hall. And i think he was more than a speculative chancer....

Like i said its ironinc that we are looking at relegation with optimism...

GeordieFalcon wrote:

Portnoy wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Quite a umber of the players have signed new long term deals such as Hogg and Gopperth who have signed 3 year deals.

Mr Kurdi our new chairman looks very ambitious and players seem to be willing to take a chance.

Another Sir John Hall GF?

He was a speculative chancer.

No i wouldnt say he was a John Hall. And i think he was more than a speculative chancer....

Like i said its ironinc that we are looking at relegation with optimism...

I disagree. SJH was the first greyhound out of the traps. Amdrew, Wilko etc and inflated wages etc.

Bought a Chelsea-like initial success.

And then buggered of as soon as he got a buyer.

No his vison was to create a sporting club like that of Barcalona...with Football, rugby, basketball and ice hockey. The problem he found was that football dominates this area...so pushing basketball and ice hockey was a difficult job. Although the basketball team dominate the UK these days...

come on guys, what is it - 8pts between Falcons and Wasps.
Whats the remaining fixtures like?
I remember looking at them a while ago and I thought that the Wasps final run was a tougher finish.

All Falcons need is 1 win and Wasps to drop a fixture and they are in with a shout. All set up nicely for that Newcastle-Wasps home fixture to decide the relegation.

There is still a chance. But, should the worst happen I would still expect Falcons to come back up again the following season - and bagging Deano is a massive advantage.

Wasps

Sun 1		London Wasps v Gloucester Rugby, Adams Park, Wycombe 15:00 local, 14:00 GMT
Sat 14		Harlequins v London Wasps, The Stoop, London 16:30 local, 15:30 GMT
Sat 21		Bath Rugby v London Wasps, Recreation Ground, Bath 14:15 local, 13:15 GMT
May 2012
Sat 5		London Wasps v Newcastle Falcons, Adams Park, Wycombe 14:00 local, 13:00 GMT

Newcastle

March 2012
Fri 30		Newcastle Falcons v Sale Sharks, Kingston Park, Newcastle 20:00 local, 19:00 GMT
April 2012
Sat 14		Gloucester Rugby v Newcastle Falcons, Kingsholm, Gloucester 15:00 local, 14:00 GMT
Fri 20		Newcastle Falcons v Saracens, Kingston Park, Newcastle 19:45 local, 18:45 GMT
May 2012
Sat 5		London Wasps v Newcastle Falcons, Adams Park, Wycombe 14:00 local, 13:00 GMT

That's too difficulty for the Geordies surely!

Could be a crackin' game in the final round if the intervening results fell right though.

Falcons havent got a bad record against Gloucester!
Sale had a number of defensive lapses last weekend.
Sarries is the only definate 'L' there.

It's not impossible - just unlikely.

If teams are level at any stage, they are ranked in order by:
1. number of wins
2. difference between points for and against
3. most tries scored
4. most points scored
5. difference between tries for and against

If teams are level at any stage

Therein lies the problem.

Bovvered - Not I, I'll be getting a season ticket and watching Falcons next year no matter what.

(although I have a sneaky suspicion that bouncing back is not as easy as they are making out)

EnglishReign wrote:Reckon it'll finish:

Quins
Leicester
Sarries
Exeter
---------------
Saints
Glaws
---------------
Sale
Irish
Bath
Wuss
Wasps
Falcons

I think it depends on how the Exeter-Northampton match plays out.
Exeter win, and you are probably right.
Saints win, and they probably switch positions.

Who cares about the stinky Jeff?!

I think the Jeff places will pretty much stay as they are. There seems to much for the Falcons to do to leap frog Wasps, so their best chance of staying up is that whoever wins the Championship can't go up. At present its looking between Bristol, London Welsh, Bedford and Cornish Pirates. I stand to be corrected but I'm sure Bristol are the only side who can go up out of that 4.

HongKongCherry wrote:At present its looking between Bristol, London Welsh, Bedford and Cornish Pirates. I stand to be corrected but I'm sure Bristol are the only side who can go up out of that 4.

If that's true it's utterly ridiculous and needs readdressing.

EnglishReign wrote:

HongKongCherry wrote:At present its looking between Bristol, London Welsh, Bedford and Cornish Pirates. I stand to be corrected but I'm sure Bristol are the only side who can go up out of that 4.

If that's true it's utterly ridiculous and needs readdressing.

My understanding is that Cornish have/were looking at a ground sharing deal with plymouth albion if they got promoted.

I thought, when this came up last year, that Bedford qualified but im not sure.

And yes Bristol can definatly go back up.

wam, the Pirates have delayed their stadium plans for a further year so cannot ground share for the whole season and so can't go up.

It does make a bit of a mockery of the whole thing and would not be the way i'd want to stay up....though i would relunctantly be forced to accept it...

HongKongCherry wrote:wam, the Pirates have delayed their stadium plans for a further year so cannot ground share for the whole season and so can't go up.

Ah I hadn't heard that. So yes it does make a mockery of it!

It makes you wonder about this talk of English clubs playing safe, as relegation prospects prevent adventurous rugby. Most of the Championship teams can't be promoted anyway!

In a way though...the championship teams know the crack so they should be prepared for it....its not like they're just finding out the rule now!!

What if the marker was set at

1 Facilites (absolute minimum agreed requirement)
2 Average attendance (promoted side to be within 5%) of actual attendance of bottom club.

Portnoy wrote:What if the marker was set at

1 Facilites (absolute minimum agreed requirement)
2 Average attendance (promoted side to be within 5%) of actual attendance of bottom club.

Portnoy, test 1 fails because it ignores the existing standard of facilities in the Prem, and test 2 fails because it ignores demographics

Personally i just think everyone will be hoping we go down...cos by god we'll be a powerhouse once Deano gets to grips with us!!!

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:What if the marker was set at

1 Facilites (absolute minimum agreed requirement)
2 Average attendance (promoted side to be within 5%) of actual attendance of bottom club.

Portnoy, test 1 fails because it ignores the existing standard of facilities in the Prem, and test 2 fails because it ignores demographics

Do all the Jeff sides currently fulfil the standards of promotion requirements As?

Demographics like being in/around London and failing to bring in a useful home ground gate?

Portnoy wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

Portnoy wrote:What if the marker was set at

1 Facilites (absolute minimum agreed requirement)
2 Average attendance (promoted side to be within 5%) of actual attendance of bottom club.

Portnoy, test 1 fails because it ignores the existing standard of facilities in the Prem, and test 2 fails because it ignores demographics

Do all the Jeff sides currently fulfil the standards of promotion requirements As?

Demographics like being in/around London and failing to bring in a useful home ground gate?

No, my understanding is that not all grounds of teams in the prem currently would meet the standards required of those seeking promotion

If The Cornish Pirates ever did ground share with Albion would they be renamed the Devon Pirates? And how would the fans be able to come and watch cos i didn't think that Cornish people could cross moving water?

I believe that Edgeley Park does not meet the criteria for promoted teams due to facilities (toilets to bums on seat ratio etc) and both London Irish and London Wasps do not have primacy over fixture scheduling which I believe is another one of the criteria.

I thought LI did unless Reading got promoted? The only real conflicts of interest are when AP clubs share grounds with Premier League Clubs because then there is potential television arguements. For instance ESPN could insist on wanting to televise the rugby at the same time Sky could turn round and say that they wanted to schedule the football at the same time. That is unlikely to happen with football or rugby outside the top leagues though.

There was talk about a Tigers/Foxes ground share in the early noughties.

At the Walkers Stadium.

But it all came to nothing after disputes over primacy issues.