PGA Tour: "Houston, We have a problem": Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Actually two problems:
For most of the participants at this week's "Shell Houston Open", Job One is to win the tournament and thereby take the final qualifying spot for The Masters.
And for all players who DO qualify, the problem will be the NIKE poster child who looked very close to top form in demolishing last week's Bay Hill field.

2).Tiger first:
That was reminiscent of Woods of the last decade: Solid round 1, superb Round 2 with a slice (actually hook) of good fortune as an out-of-bounds-bound ball hit the perimeter fence and stayed in play. Routine par! Otherwise he kept his foot on the gas and cruised to a Friday 65. The field was stretched out and, unless Tiger suddenly lost his form, the weekend would be a formality. And so it proved. Some thoughts about that:

~It sure looked as if at least some of the old intimidation factor kicked in at the weekend. Competitors who have enjoyed his absence these past 30 months need to acquire some testicular fortitude if the same scenario repeats itself in the great tournaments this spring and summer.
~Woods is nowhere near as bulked up in his upper body as he was by 2008/2009, as if part of the new coaching regime depends on a slimmer physique.
~He's getting his "fortitude" back - gorgeous long iron into the par-5 6th hole (followed superbly by McDowell) underlined his superiority on Bay Hill's par-5's. Twelve under par on the par-5's for the week - he's 3rd in par-5 scoring for the year.
~And Tiger's 1st in "Total Driving" now for the year, 1st in "Ball Striking", 10th in Putting and 1st in the Tour's "All Round" stat.
~But does Tiger still need to swing so hard given his body's apparent fragility? His drive on #15 on Sunday which forced him to lay up in advance of a superb up-and-down par, was violent, his followthrough contorted and way off balance. Crisis averted once his par was secured, and the most beautifully smooth, relaxed swing you ever saw off the 16th tee.

3).Congrat's to Graeme McDowell who gave it his best last weekend, commiserations to Ernie Els, and it looks like the rest got out of Bay Hill what they put into it - a finish, high or low, with no sign of aggression (Bubba perhaps excepted) in going after either Tiger or the course on Sunday. Well done to Poulter and Brian Davis with high finishes but they were never really in the hunt.

4).Lots to admire about Arnold Palmer but some of his utterances over the course of last week suggested it's not just his heart that's playing up.
And how nauseating was it to see Annika Sorenstam turning up on the NBC set with babe in arms? It was as if NBC called Annika and said, "We'd like you to come and endorse Arnie's hospital," and she called all her sponsors and asked, "How much will you pay me for five minutes guaranteed on-screen exposure?"
So, there you have Annika decked all out like any other mother, right? Golf shirt emblazoned with every logo under the sun, just what any young mother wears when she takes the nipper out for a stroll.

5).Arnie lamented that Lukey and Rory were absent but Bay Hill always looks a one dimensional course to me, ranked 33rd by the pros, and complete with more than half a mile of par-3's. Designed by an alcoholic who went to University on an American Football scholarship and, boy, does it ever look like it.

6).And so to Houston and the other problem. The final invitation from Billy Payne is at stake and, just as a point of reference, these are the top-five-ranked golfers in the field not yet destined for Augusta:
#58: Els
#67: Allenby
#68: Moore
#72: Levin
#81: Overton (who would presumably rather be playing in Sicily)

7).Phil Mickelson won last year's Shell Houston Open with a win which was as emotional as it was electrifying. This Rees Jones design (yes, Phil won on a Rees Jones course) is in its 7th year hosting the tournament and, so far, it's been a bomber's paradise. Anthony Kim won in 2010 whilst hitting just 23 of 56 fairways, Phil not much better last year hitting just 30 - real never-mind-the-quality, feel-the-width stuff. Appleby, Scott, Wagner and Casey have been the other winners here. Casey beat JB Holmes in a 2009 play-off and it would be no surprise to see Holmes lighting it up again this week.

8).Lee Westwood leads the European contingent, with McDowell, Casey, Hanson and Hansen, Bjorn and Harrington all competing. Russell Knox is first alternate and heartbreak for a couple of Nationwide players, Wales's Ben Briscoe and Sweden's David Lingmerth, who lost in a play-off for one of the four Monday qualifying places.

9).Anders Forsbrand and Ian Woosnam played in last week's Champions Tour event in Mississippi, but neither finished in the top fifty and highlighted the futility Europeans will continue to endure if they want to contend Senior tournaments over here without making a year-long commitment. Barry Lane rather flubbed his lines when in a strong Q-School position last year and who knows what Monty might do if he gives the Champions Tour a whirl? Meanwhile, Langer is the only European to have made a decent showing in the past five years.

10).Back to that "Problem" that next week's Masters field will encounter:
Tiger ticks all the media boxes over here (and there?), his gnashers grinning from every US media outlet these past couple of days, attention for a golfer that we haven't seen since he completed his sex addiction therapy.
Viewership of "Bay Hill" was up almost 40% and Billy Payne and CBS TV must be rubbing their hands in glee as they anticipate another Tiger-driven ratings bonanza. All watching Luke, Rory and Lee battling it out in the final round?

Looks like Chubby is "bundling" his stars into Houston this week. Westy, Charl, Oosty, and Darren all in the field.

Competitors who have enjoyed his absence these past 30 months need to acquire some testicular fortitude if the same scenario repeats itself in the great tournaments this spring and summer.

I was just thinking something similar of late regarding McIlroy; he has been a little cocky in his attitude towards tiger despite never having faced a version of tiger that would be fit to lace the real tigers boots.

Annika decked all out like any other mother, right?

The really weird thing was that her husband also seemed to be endorsed by the same companies. It is just wrong when couples wear matching clothes.

McLaren wrote:
I was just thinking something similar of late regarding McIlroy; he has been a little cocky in his attitude towards tiger despite never having faced a version of tiger that would be fit to lace the real tigers boots.

Slightly odd thing to say Mac, he can only beat what's in front of him; should he also show due deference when paired with Nicklaus or Palmer, on the basis that they'd have been a match for him at their peaks? McIlroy has had more success the past 2-3 years than Woods, you can't blame him for being confident in the head-to-head matchup; if you want to criticise anyone, criticise Woods for going off the boil at the perfect time for McIlroy.


Anyway, neither is relevant this week. Can't say I'm a fan of a setup where GiR stats for the whole field are in the 70 percents, but the last two winners hit less than 50% of fairways between them. But there's certainly players who'll be glad of the width. And after my 1st/2nd/4th/4th fantasy picks last week, I'll go out on a limb and call out Stenson for one to watch this week. Quietly getting his form together this year, and spectacularly wayward driving was the main cause of his decline to begin with, so this should be ideal territory. T3 on his last visit too.

Hi Ned,
I like Stenson this week as well; you beat me last week one 4th to my flailing 30thsomething!

Houston has staged its Open at some attractive courses over the past 25 years but this is my least favourite, partly I suppose for the reasons you suggest, and partly due to weather interference which makes some holes, especially 18, very penal.

Early forecast for the week is good for Thursday, chance of thunderage later in the week; no sign of the blustrousness which has spoiled the event in the past.

Peter Hanson has reportedly followed Ryo Ishikawa and taken Special Temporary Membership on the PGA Tour, meaning he can garner unlimited sponsor's exemptions for the rest of the year.

Based upon his earnings ytd, he's most likely 80% at least on the way to acquiring full PGA Tour Membership for 2013.

I watched the weekends coverage and Tiger is definitely back. He's slowly been putting the parts of the jigsaw together since the fall last year. Its amazing how he has fixed each part of his game in turn and once fixed he has topped the rankings in that category. I doubt if anyone else in the game can do that. He now has all the plates spinning and just in time for the first Major.

As you say kwini it will be very interesting to see how the others react if and when Tiger is contending in the final round of the majors, perhapd starting with the Masters.

My dream finish for the Masters would be Tiger and Rory going out last on Sunday several shots ahead of the field. If this happens I'd have to admit my money would be on Tiger.

We now have a great season to look forward to. I just hope Tiger stays fit and plays enough events so we get a few great "head to heads" on Sunday.

kwini, do you have any info on the els situation?
just how (un)likely is it that he will recieve an invite from Billy Payne? is there any precedent for a late invite that you remember? i cant think of one.

Ned

Crucially Tiger is still around to challenge Rory and Jack isn’t. Rory has never had to conquer the Tiger factor and I would have thought you would want to experience that before commenting that Tiger is beatable. Playing against a broken tiger and thinking you can beat him is a little foolish don’t you think?


Kwini

The chances are that the Masters field is now set right? I can’t see any of those not qualified winning this week, can you?

Is it so bad that this is a bomber's course? I'm not suggesting that I would want that sort of course very often but a range of courses to suit different players is not necessary a bad thing. Its a skill as much as having a great short game. I don't think it should be allowed to dominate but a couple of courses a year is not so bad?

Although it never ceases to amaze me that professionals (especially ones as good as Mickelson) cannot hit fairways when they are as good as they are. I appreciate that the margins for error can be pretty small but they are very good. I get that there are courses where you can open your shoulders a little but I am surprised that they cannot work out a way to take a little off and get in play.

Agree with your last point on Tiger's swing... as accurate and as great his shots may be getting once again, it almost hurts me when I watch him swinging so hard. My concern is that even before considering that aspect, I couldn't see Tiger ever becoming as good/great as he was at his peak, just for the simple reason that he is moving into his late 30's and physically all sorts of limitations will start to creep into the mix. But the amount of stress that he appears to be inflicting in his body with every swing these days, would make me even more concerned... Hopefully we'll be proven wrong, we'll see...

Stenson was the highest earner in my fantasy team last week, which says probably as much about his game lately as it does about my inspiration... And I may well pick him again this week, great to see him playing well again...

twoeightnine wrote:...Although it never ceases to amaze me that professionals (especially ones as good as Mickelson) cannot hit fairways when they are as good as they are. I appreciate that the margins for error can be pretty small but they are very good. I get that there are courses where you can open your shoulders a little but I am surprised that they cannot work out a way to take a little off and get in play.

What I'd like to know is why the rough/hazards aren't penal enough. If you smack it 30 yards off line it would seem to me that you ought to expect a hard time of it more often than not.

More importantly navy, should the green sites of courses used not present significant issues for drives that far out of position?

There seems to be a benefit in pro golf for being further off line often as this is the area that either has spectators tramping down the grass or stands so you get a free drop with no trees, etc. blocking you. If you are 'just' 10 yards off the fairway you can get in thick rough and possibly blocked by a bush or tree.

I don't suppose that they play for it and you still have to be good enough to do something about it. Also, golf ain't always fair!

'Allo, 'Allo,

hend0,
Would think the chances of Els being added to the field without a win are extremely remote.
Interestingly (or not) we will see this scenario acted out again as Els is not qualified for the US Open either, though I would be amazed if the USGA didn't offer him a free pass there.


Mac,
I would think it's 50/50 that someone not already qualified for Augusta will win. Johnson Wagner was the last to win here to secure his coveted invite, no reason why someone won't come out of the woodwork this week either.


Interesting comments about course set-up - one feels the Tour should strike a balance between short and tight, and long and wide open.
In this case the "green complexes" are the primary defence with all the banks and fringes around the greens mown tightly in an effort to replicate Augusta National - green speeds up as well if conditions allow.


Cheers pd,
Woods seems obsessed with hitting the ball further than anyone else; hadn't fully appreciated that perhaps until his comments these past few weeks, but he seems to revel in his driving distance stat and how far he hits his irons. "Fun again" is the comment he likes to throw out.
Not sure that distance trumps control though and there'll be little sympathy next time he departs mid-round in a golf-cart.

"Interestingly (or not) we will see this scenario acted out again as Els is not qualified for the US Open either, though I would be amazed if the USGA didn't offer him a free pass there."

I dont understand the free pass comment, I checked the qualification criteria and there are no invitations. If he doesn't make it then he will have to go though the qualifying surely?

Mac,
The US Open "qualification criteria" includes "Special exemptions per USGA Executive Committee".

They tend to use these annually, usually to provide entry to a deserving? golfer with a lifetime of achievement in USGA events, especially at the course being played; Palmer, Nicklaus and Watson all garnered boatloads of these and I think Irwin was on a "special" when he won at Medinah.

Watson and Vijay both had special exemptions in 2010 at Pebble Beach, tho' none were awarded in the preceding three years.

Not sure that any were doled out for Congressional but there was some lobbying for an invite to Lehman.

Anyway, hopefully Ernie will qualify as of right - a few decent finishes now and we'll see him climb the rankings quite quickly.

Some tour gossip: Bubba Watson and his wife Angie have adopted a 1 month baby boy, Caleb. Congratulations to Bubba and Angie.

And FWIW, as of this week, Ernie Els, at OWGR #58, is qualified for the US Open. S-13 was changed from OWGR Top 50 to OWGR Top 60 this year.

USGA wrote:S-13. From the current World Rankings, the top 60 point leaders and ties as of
May 21, 2012. (NOTE: Blank entries will be filed by the USGA for players
who become exempt after close of entries.)

https://champs.usga.org/EntryForms/usopen_2012.pdf

Great, another mulleted redneck.

Mac, Scottie

It does my head in the way people talk about Woods in different terms to all other golfers. He's not magically different to the rest, he was just the best for a long time. Why on Earth would McIlroy be worried about someone else having an extended loss of form? His job is to go out and win tournaments, not wait around on the offchance someone recaptures their form of a few years ago. The talk of Woods being "back" annoys me the same way, he was playing badly, recently he's started to play a bit better. That's the sort of thing that happens to every golfer, in fact every pro sportsman. It doesn't mean he's suddenly the best in the world by a mile again, it just means he's a golfer playing well. People talk about the "Tiger factor" intimidating other players, it's no wonder when well-informed golf fans seem unable to treat him like any other player either.

NedB-H wrote:Mac, Scottie

It does my head in the way people talk about Woods in different terms to all other golfers. He's not magically different to the rest, he was just the best for a long time. Why on Earth would McIlroy be worried about someone else having an extended loss of form? His job is to go out and win tournaments, not wait around on the offchance someone recaptures their form of a few years ago. The talk of Woods being "back" annoys me the same way, he was playing badly, recently he's started to play a bit better. That's the sort of thing that happens to every golfer, in fact every pro sportsman. It doesn't mean he's suddenly the best in the world by a mile again, it just means he's a golfer playing well. People talk about the "Tiger factor" intimidating other players, it's no wonder when well-informed golf fans seem unable to treat him like any other player either.

Precisely, he isn't back until he's winning a major a year and five other tournaments in a year and miles ahead in the rankings. All he's won is one solitary tournament (excluding the joke Chevron) in three years. Trailblazing stuff.

GPB,
But, as things currently stand, he is not qualified, which was my point. If Els retains his spot he'll be fine. Which is probably what he thought for The Masters a few months ago.

GPB wrote:So
And FWIW, as of this week, Ernie Els, at OWGR #58, is qualified for the US Open. S-13 was changed from OWGR Top 50 to OWGR Top 60 this year.

USGA wrote:S-13. From the current World Rankings, the top 60 point leaders and ties as of
May 21, 2012. (NOTE: Blank entries will be filed by the USGA for players
who become exempt after close of entries.)

https://champs.usga.org/EntryForms/usopen_2012.pdf

Been waiting for someone to bring up this GPB. I remember it cropping up when it was first announced last year, the implication being that the "money list" criteria were being scrapped in favour of a few extra OWGR spots, with the rest made up from qualifying. That sounded quite good, increasing the quality of the field on the one hand and making it more of a true "Open" with qualifying on the other. But I've only just seen the minutiae of the changes. Previously there was an exemption for the previous season's top 30 on the PGA Tour money list, and top 15 on the R2D list - a little US-biased, but better than nothing. There was also a category for everyone who played in the Tour Championship, which in practice was mostly people already exempt from the money list, with one or two who had a big-points tournament in the FedEx playoff.
True to their word, the USGA have scrapped the money list categories for both tours, as well as mini-categories for Japan and Australian tours, and a "current season" category for the top 10 on that years PGA Tour as of the tournament, and top 5 on that years Euro Tour. But they've kept the Tour Championship category, with no corresponding survivor for Euro Tour players. So in effect, the PGA Tour has lost one or two exempt places, for those who were top 30 money list but missed out on East Lake, while the ET has lost every one of its exemptions. A very sneaky way of giving the US-based players another advantage...

Ned,
Agree completely, although as far as I can see Noren will be the only one to miss out as things stand. And, potentially, Grace and possibly Rock.

(Jury's out on the Tiger "intimidation factor" for me until we see him contend in a top event - but the pretenders last Sunday certainly didn't make any challenge to him, McDowell excepted. By the same token, guys like Chalmers, Mickelson and Rock have taken him on head-to-head and found that it's Tiger that wilts under pressure. We'll have to see what happens in a biggie . . . )

Kwin -

You can look at this "intimidation factor" countless ways.

Did Tiger "wilt" against YE Yang a few years ago, or did he lose to the better golfer that weekend?

You really think he wilted under the pressure from Rock and Chalmers? I can't imagine anyone that's been as successful at Tiger in regular tournaments and majors having a mental block with those two.

But, if you believe that, and along that same logic trail, the line of players who've wilted under the Tiger pressure of playing against Tiger in a "biggie" is long and painful ...

Westwood - "O-fer" in all majors, wilted against Tiger most recently at Torrey Pines

Monty - "O-fer" in all majors, wilted against Tiger at the British Open, where all his order of merit victories and link's skill one would think have propelled him to at least one victory.

Donale - "O-fer" in all majors, and I don't recall him even in a key position against Tiger in any major Tiger won.

The list can go on and on ...

Monty didn't wilt at St.Andrews, Woods was too far ahead. Simple as that.

I wholeheartedly agree that the Tour Championship exemption is bogus, for both the Masters and the USOpen.

One player from each of the last three years have qualified based on the TC Exemption, based on a Top 3 finish in one of the first three playoff events

Marc Leishman
Kevin Streelman
Chez Reavie

I would rather the USGA and AGNC keep the PGAT money list and get rid of the FE exemption.

As far the top 15 Euros from the 2011 RTD, only one of the players is not inside the the top 60, and frankly just like Reavie, I don't think Alex Noren (#14 2011 RtD should be exempt.

But as of this week, there are two players inside the top 60 that are exclusively European Tour (Gonzo, Rock). So that is a net gain of one Euro to the US Open if the cutoff date was this week. and Matteo, RCB, Colsaerts, Coetzee, Hoey, Luiten, Van Zyl, Noren have a great opportunity to play their way into the top 60, as they are ranked from #61-#80.

Super - You may be right. I suppose I should mention the 97 Masters for Monty. 2nd to 3rd round ... his 74 to Tiger's 65. Ouch.

Point is, the list would be long a tedious if you believed that every time a player finished worse than another player, it was due to an intimidation factor by the player that won that tournament.

Sr,
Whether Tiger wilted or not against Chalmers and Rock, he certainly started spraying shots all over the place and yipping his putts; he was outplayed because his play was awful. But all of a sudden he's playing better when it counts.

And I was trying to say above is that that "factor" looked to be back last weekend and let's see what happens against a stronger field in a top tournament.

Don't see that that warrants disparaging comments against British golfers, some inaccurate characterisations included as s_r points out, Monty winning the 2nd place competition. And Luke has certainly folded against a rampant Tiger in a Major, at Medinah for starters.
Did LW REALLY wilt against Woods? Don't think so, just beaten on the day, a bit like Woods losing to Yang.

But that's not the point. Which is that we still don't know how he'll respond in a top event.

And that is what will be so interesting to see.

Kwin - Do you believe Tiger "wilted" under the pressure from Chalmers and Rock as you state?

I certainly don't.

I think this whole "intimidation factor" is a taken to an extreme, as I've tried to point out.

Maybe the mental wilt didn't occer, maybe it was just the physical wilt. Whatever it was, under pressure his swing went haywire.

I DO think Woods in his heyday won tournaments he had no right to win because others were scared sh1tless.

Shotrock wrote:Kwin - Do you believe Tiger "wilted" under the pressure from Chalmers and Rock as you state?

I certainly don't.

Neither do I, it's complete balderdash.

incontinent, Shotrock,

Whatever the reason for Woods's game going awol in Australia and Abu Dhabi, and your insights will be welcome, my point was that he's got his act together now.
Guys will have to "acquire some fortitude" (conspicuous by its absence last weekend with noted exceptions) if they expect to compete in similar situations later this year.

No better time to find out than The Masters.

On a happier note, fun to see Daly and Rocca in the same threesome (with Levet) in Sicily.

Let's make no mistake here, ability to deal with pressure is what is the difference between winning and losing on tour. All of these players can shoot 65 with no pressure.

Lots of things influence what makes you feel pressure. Obviously the prize at the end is a huge one. The best players are able to deal with this and the main way is to play the classic 'one shot at a time'. In other words, blank out the external and just focus on that shot as though there is nothing on it.

A big part of the external pressure is other players that you are against. Years of dominance has rightly led players to fear Tiger. And he is not easy to block out either due to the crowds that follow him. Stick them with all the additions of a big tournament and a guy who has been there and done it many times and it all adds up.

I'm not convinced that he has that fear factor back on the strength of one win but there will be few golfers who will see his name at the top and not have a reaction. And he certainly did have it.

I sometimes wonder whether its easier being the journeyman pro against him rather than the top ones as there is little expectation on them so they can use that to relax. Still not easy but imagine being Ernie or Lee stood on the 72nd tee knowing Tiger is a shot away and knowing that everyone is looking at you thinking will he choke? Whereas Yang could stand there and (somehow) convince himself that everyone expects him to fail.

289,
Agree completely, and your final paragraph is an especially interesting thought.

this will probably be discussed next week but I found this interesting.

Martha Burk could not get a woman in the front door of the ANGC membership but IBM might get one in through the side door.

http://www.golfdigest.com/golf-tours-news/blogs/local-knowledge/2012/03/could-a-woman-wear-the-green-jacket-in-the-near-future.html

Shotrock wrote:
Donale - "O-fer" in all majors, and I don't recall him even in a key position against Tiger in any major Tiger won.

2006 PGA? IIRC they were tied going into final round 3 shots clear of the rest and woods won by 5?

If handling yourself under pressure is the key to winning, for one thing, I would like to see drugs testing in golf.

LastDamnation wrote:

Shotrock wrote:
Donale - "O-fer" in all majors, and I don't recall him even in a key position against Tiger in any major Tiger won.

2006 PGA? IIRC they were tied going into final round 3 shots clear of the rest and woods won by 5?

Was that not part of tiger's six in a row?

Very pleased to see the announcement of Liselotte Neumann's appointment as Solheim Cup Captain.
Last year's Team Europe victory was one of the highlights of the year, and Neumann, along with Laura Davies, was the first successful European invader to the LPGA Tour.
Great to see such a fitting appintment.

Kwini, I wonder if we will see Annika and her husband during the Solheim? Plastered with ad-stickers from top to toe of course..

Ooops!? Some of the latest Woods/Haney fun stuff with an Irish twist in this morning papers...

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/k-club-denies-it-gave-porn-film-to-tiger-woods-at-ryder-cup-3065004.html

A top 10 this week Padraig and peak next week hey....A win is coming I can feel it!

sirbenson wrote:A top 10 this week Padraig and peak next week hey....A win is coming I can feel it!

Good call, sirb!
A win for Padraig in Houston and one for Shane in Sicily, wouldn't that be great...?

Pitty though this Sunday it's gonna be 1st of April...

Let's hope you're right sirbenson.

Hardly Portmarnock weather for Houston though, warm each day, no significant winds forecast though there's a chance of thundershowers interfering with Rounds 1 and 2.

Six-hour time difference this week so St.Padraig will be on the move with Henrik Stenson at 7.10 p.m. Dublin time.

First tee-time in less than an hour.

Yeah a double would be nice Prince although I would rather Padraig won next week although any win will do at the moment!

Kwini
He is playing great from tee to green it is all about the flat stick, bar that round with the 61 he has holed nothing all season. He hasn't missed a cut in a while which is unusual at this stage of the season!

Bjorn's back looks all right judging from that birdie at his 1st hole...
I wonder, is Bud Cauley knocking at the door of his breakthrough win?! I've been very impressed with this lad more than with any other of the very new breed in the US. Birdie-birdie start for him...

C'mooon GMac/Podge!!

Sirbenson:
Thinking of Harrington at the Masters just leads me to envisage his plonking endless balls in the pond at the 15th

However I looked up the stats and it's not as bad as I thought, I was probably just remembering the year he went 8476 on it (+5 for the hole and only ended 4 back), he's only +1 on the hole through 40 rounds. Probably is the easiest hole on the course though.

I see Russell Knox has advanced from first alternate to a threesome with Charlie Hoffman and Darren Clarke. Not sure yet who's disappeared, but Good Luck Russell Knox, he needs it.