Aviva Premiership Round 19 Preview & Live match thread

Last weekend's Premiership action saw the top four close the gap to just 10 points between 4th and 1st place. Outside of the top four there are still three teams with a chance of breaking in, although it would require some of the pace setters to slip up massively along the way.

At the other end of the table there are now just 8 points between the bottom two clubs with the loser facing potential relegation.

The table as it stands:

Harlequins 62
Saracens 59
Leicester 55
Northampton 52
Exeter 49
Gloucester 42
Sale 40
Bath 39
London Irish 36
Worcester 35
Wasps 27
Newcastle 19

Friday 30th April

Leicester Tigers v Worcester Warriors, Welford Road, Leicester
The Tigers looked like they were back in top form last weekend against LI. With a massive and smart pack coupled with exciting half backs they are currently the form team in the league, Worcester on the other hand will be happy to just know that they are safe from relegation and you can't see them focusing too much on an away win at Welford Rd. Expect another big game from the Tigers pack who'll look to get all over the away side, if this happens then even the hard tackling Wuss defence could be stretched. Leicester by 18 with a try bp.
Newcastle Falcons v Sale Sharks, Kingston Park, Newcastle
Newcastle are currently staring down the barrel of the relegation gun and with only a few games left to get the W's then this is a must win game for them. Sale may be happy to have eluded relegation but I think they'll be chasing top 6 too. Looking at the recent form then this could really go either way; both teams seem to be in ruts, neither seem to have the experience or talent to get out of them. Falcons have at least been here before though and know what needs to be done, this combined with relegation looming should see them scrape a victory, but it won't be pretty. Newcastle by 4.

Saturday 31st March

Exeter Chiefs v London Irish, Sandy Park
Both clubs will go into Fridays game with high hopes, with the Chiefs snatching a win away at the Shed and London Irish looking like their old selves against Leicester last weekend. Exeter could still incredibly make the play offs and a strong win against the Exiles would help their cause no end, LI could still snatch a HC spot especially if the top 7 clubs go through. I imagine again Exeter's pack will do the brunt of the work and it has to be said the Irish are weak in the forwards especially in the scrum. Exeter should be able to attack from set piece but can they create much off the cuff? London Irish should still be able to cause the home team a lot of problems on the counter and in the loose they have threats across the park to keep the game tight especially with Homer kicking everything. Exeter by 5.

Saracens v Harlequins, Wembley Stadium, London
The big game of the weekend. Saracens welcome Harlequins to Wembley and will relish the chance to not only get one over their London rivals but to also steal the top spot off them too. Last weekend saw Saracens steam roller Sale with five tries. On the other hand Quins struggled to an unimpressive win over Bath. The earlier game between the two teams saw Saracens dominate the match and kick themselves to a comfy win and most people will be expecting the same again. Harlequins will need to be at their very best to win this and will need to take the chances that they have been missing recently. Big games will be needed from the forwards too as the Saracens pack looks to be hitting form. Saracens by 12.

Bath Rugby v Northampton Saints, Recreation Ground, Bath
Bath have had a troubled season over all and will be wishing for it to end soon. Northampton are another team finding form at just the right time. With Saints hitting the headlines for all the wrong reasons they'll be glad to be able to just focus on the rugby. The away team have to be favourites for this game, Bath just can't put a complete performance together and there are still issues in the backs and forwards. Northampton on the other hand have a well drilled forward pack that will be looking forward to mixing it up with the opposition and some of the big names in their backs seem to be finding top form too. Northampton by 14, try bp.

Sunday 1st April

London Wasps v Gloucester Rugby, Adams Park, Wycombe
It has to have been Wasps worst season to date so far and things aren't going to get any easier. Gloucester will be gutted to have lost to Exeter last weekend and will be out to make amends; a win away at Wasps could see them finally put breathing space between themselves and the chasers too. Both teams have shown that they can score a lot of tries, but both have also conceded plenty too, I expect the same could happen again in this game with lots of tries but neither managing to pull away from the other. Gloucester should have enough in the pack though to secure them the win, especially with Wasps injury woes in their forwards. Gloucester by 7 try bp.

Great preview, yappy

I think London Irish will be tough down at Sandy Park, and as you say, they seem to have rediscovered their mojo a little since the return of Brian Smith. Am hoping that Exe can take their recent form (Sale and Glaws games) and build from there - a strong set-piece foundation and some enterprising play in the backs. Naqer looked rusty when he came on as a sub last weekend, and hopefully Luke Arscott will get some game time before the Stade F quarterfinal

Cheers ASBO, yea LI should be tough for you boys but they've had a pretty poor pack for most of the season too. You boys should be able to rough them up and get a win.

Only real threat from them is that they always turn it on in this part of the season (sunny weather) and have the potential to score tries against the run of play.

Well, I think that although Leicester have hit a vein of form, they hardly displayed it last weekend as you suggest. They were awful in places, which kind of flys in the face of what you say about LI looking like their old selves - because they too were pretty bad in places too. I think Leicester won despite how they played, not because of it. I wont argue with your match prediction for Tigers though.

Don't think Sarries will win if at all, by that margin. Its good to see that over 70000 tickets have been sold though. I think Quins might sneak it. I hope so, for Leicester's sake.

Also, I can see Wasps winning against Glaws, don't know why, just feel it.

Equo, I'd definitely say Leicesters pack are the best in the league at the moment, not just last weekend but for the last 4/5 matches they've stepped up. True niether team were perfect but compare to earlier season form and both played a lot better then they had been.

As to Sarries I think they will play it safe and go for a win in any form, Quins I fear will look to put on a show and that could undo them (think Bath/Leicester in the LV).

Can't see the Wasps win myself but then both those teams have been hit and miss.

yappysnap wrote:Equo, I'd definitely say Leicesters pack are the best in the league at the moment, not just last weekend but for the last 4/5 matches they've stepped up. True niether team were perfect but compare to earlier season form and both played a lot better then they had been.

I'm not sure that's true. If you look at the league positions earlier in the season, LI were 4th and Tigers were 11th.... so one is clearly playing better, whilst the other..... isn't.

Yep back in Nov they were doing well, possibly helped by other teams performing badly. Since the new year they've been a lot worse but last weekend they looked better. But then Leicester are a better team then them so even an improved performance wasn't good enough for a win, shows how good Leicester are too.

I am not confident of a big win for Tigers as this game comes just 5 days after the match in Reading.

I expect Sarries to beat Quins, but can see Quins get an LBP.

Falcons have to win this weekend, I hope they can to keep things interesting down at the bottom - but I suspect Sale to be really fired up and just too strong.

Bath could easily sneak the match with Saints - especially if Saints start as poorly up front as they did against Wasps, but they have to be a lot more clinical in possession

Wasps/Glaws should be a cracking match, with both sides needing to win. My head says Gloucester but there is a nagging feeling in the pit of my stomach saying Wasps will win.

Good work yappy. I think you're right about the results. I do feel the Wembley game will be a preview of the final, as whilst Tigers and Saints are picking up wins I can't see either breaking into the top 2, so home advantage will see you both into the final.

Yappysnap fair play to you for predicting a Sarries win. I agree with you but of course I would.

Quins will certainly relish the occasion and will make it very tough for Saracens in my opinion.

We'll know more about how Saracens decide to play once we know the fly half choice. If Hodgson is picked you would expect a more attacking style whereas if Farrell is picked then Sarries are likely to play the more structured way of play.

I certainly will not be underestimating Quins.

HongKongCherry wrote:Good work yappy. I think you're right about the results. I do feel the Wembley game will be a preview of the final, as whilst Tigers and Saints are picking up wins I can't see either breaking into the top 2, so home advantage will see you both into the final.

Brave prediction that.

Why Equo Troiano? Hardly brave to predict the top 2 to finish the 1st and 2nd!

In regards to the other games.

Leicester to win at a canter with a try bonus.

I think Newcastle will pick up a much needed win over a Sale Sharks side low on confidence in a tight and edgy encounter.

Exeter to keep up their momentum with a win over London Irish.

One of the toughest games to call is Bath vs Saints but I can see Saints pinching this one.

Gloucester for the win.

Basically I agree with yappysnap.

beshocked wrote:Why Equo Troiano? Hardly brave to predict the top 2 to finish the 1st and 2nd!

To finish first, first you must finish. There are 8 points between 1st and 4th with 20 points available. Now, i'm no mathemetician, but it seems to me that anything is possible with regards to the play-off places.

Leicester are coming up on the rails. Fast. And have the advantage that unless there is a draw at Wembly, the gap to one or other will be significantly reduced.

So, we'll see eh?

Cheers Beshocked.

I genuinely see this as our toughest match of the season so far. You boys have a far better pack then ours as shown in the big game and now our main strength (Evans) seems to be out of form which is stifling the whole backline.

If you get in to a good lead then it could get really bad for us, if things stay very close then we could potentially steal it with a moment of magic, but that's a big if.

Yappysnap what is your expected team?

Remember since that game our backrow is taking a beating in regards to injuries - Saull,Brown and Burger all out for lengthy periods.

Your backrow depth has always been strong and it's certainly one area I fear we will struggle.

Brits, Joubert and whoever plays 9 have been our biggest sparks. Shut them down and our attack will have a lot of difficulty.

Tigers by lots
Falcons by not many
vs. - no comment
Quins by a couple
Bath by a few
Wasps by not very many at all

Equo Troiano wrote: There are 8 points between 1st and 4th with 20 points available. Now, i'm no mathemetician, but it seems to me that anything is possible with regards to the play-off places.
So, we'll see eh?

Glad you put that in. Pretty sure that 62-52 is still 10.

Mind you if Daily mail is right (which is rare) getting an answer of 8 would still get you an A* at GCSE


If Sarries beat Quins, then Tigers are no longer responsible on others doing them favours to finish second. (true they would have to beat Quins and Saints away)

beshocked wrote:Yappysnap what is your expected team?

Remember since that game our backrow is taking a beating in regards to injuries - Saull,Brown and Burger all out for lengthy periods.

Your backrow depth has always been strong and it's certainly one area I fear we will struggle.

Brits, Joubert and whoever plays 9 have been our biggest sparks. Shut them down and our attack will have a lot of difficulty.

I'd imagine our strongest lineup will be put out so:
Marler
Gray
Johnston
Robson
Kohn (if fit)
Fa'Asavalu
Robshaw
Easter
Dickson
Evans
Monye
JTH
Lowe
Williams
Brown

Fairbrother
....
Lambart
Mathews
Guest/Wallace
Care/Bolt
Clegg
Chisholm/Hopper

I'd be happy with all of that except wingers, for a while now both of them have looked poor and while either one would be fine on their own together they do not offer enough. Chisholm, Smith or Stegmann should start with another on the bench. I would also give serious consideration to Hopper over Lowe, it's interesting that all of the threat from the back three has gone since Hopper dropped from the squad and Brown went on Eng duty.

All three of the back row players need massive games to make up for the light weight front 5, not sure if Kohn is fit but if he's not then we could be bollocksd either way.

LondonTiger wrote:

Equo Troiano wrote: There are 8 points between 1st and 4th with 20 points available. Now, i'm no mathemetician, but it seems to me that anything is possible with regards to the play-off places.
So, we'll see eh?

Glad you put that in. Pretty sure that 62-52 is still 10.

Mind you if Daily mail is right (which is rare) getting an answer of 8 would still get you an A* at GCSE


If Sarries beat Quins, then Tigers are no longer responsible on others doing them favours to finish second. (true they would have to beat Quins and Saints away)

I actually meant between 1st and 3rd, but, regardless, there are still 20 points available. Its not an impossibility.

You see, now I am being pedantic, but 62-55 is?


It is unlikely that Tigers or Saints will top the table. It is however highly possible that either could sneak in to second place. Quins, despite topping the table look most vulnerable to me - but if they win at the weekend the picture changes again.

I would be suprised if Tigers did not secure a home play-off place.

I still think it will be difficult with having away games at Saints and Quins. Saints at the Gardens is always one of the most difficult games of the year and they will want to try and erase the memories of what could have been in the final. Quins is an interesting one as they are obviously not playing that well at the moment but it only takes one game and it could be this weekend against Sarries, it could be against us but they definitely have a performance left in them. With only 4 games to go I think, with the way the fixtures are, we may need to win all 4 to get a home tie which will be extremely difficult. A loss to the Saints puts them ahead of us and means they have the advantage, a loss to Quins and we basically say goodbye to a home tie as I cant see Sarries losing to anyone but potentially Quins

LondonTiger wrote:You see, now I am being pedantic, but 62-55 is?


It is unlikely that Tigers or Saints will top the table. It is however highly possible that either could sneak in to second place. Quins, despite topping the table look most vulnerable to me - but if they win at the weekend the picture changes again.

Agree with that, not sure why it is though? Maybe player fatigue from the lack of rotation or other teams figuring us out as the seasons gone on.

killer938 wrote:I still think it will be difficult with having away games at Saints and Quins. Saints at the Gardens is always one of the most difficult games of the year and they will want to try and erase the memories of what could have been in the final. Quins is an interesting one as they are obviously not playing that well at the moment but it only takes one game and it could be this weekend against Sarries, it could be against us but they definitely have a performance left in them. With only 4 games to go I think, with the way the fixtures are, we may need to win all 4 to get a home tie which will be extremely difficult. A loss to the Saints puts them ahead of us and means they have the advantage, a loss to Quins and we basically say goodbye to a home tie as I cant see Sarries losing to anyone but potentially Quins

It may actually benefit Tigers to finish 4th - I think they could go to either The Stoop or Sickerage Rd and get a result.

Tigers are probably one of the best teams at knock out rugby, they have a good chance home or away against any of the other sides. The only team that could be better would be a full strength Saracens.

Yeh, I would definitely rather play Quins away than Saracens but I think if we have a home tie then I would rather play Saracens to be honest. Feel that it would easier to beat them there than at Twickers.

Killer938 the sentiment is mutual. Tigers are a very tough side to beat. Not sure whether I would prefer Tigers at Twickers or VR though. Either would result in a real power struggle. Just look at the last 4 encounters bar that one during the world cup.

Yep, always very tight games, partly now because both teams no each other so well. I think in both cases home advantage would just give the edge to that team and at Twickers it is just a toss up.

I must say that i'm hugely impressed that Quins v Sarries has virtually sold out Wembely Stadium. As was stated on the Rugby Club last night though, its a pity that neither (especially Saffas) can manage even a tenth of that on a weekly basis.

Cheers Equo, yea it's great that the teams combined can draw so many fans to Wembley.

As for our home fans we do often get very good crowds and regularly fill The Stoop. I don't think we can add many more seats to the ground as it is now, what with the fine that we got a few seasons back and the lack of a rich backer at the club.

I expect quite a few will be neutral - which is good, well it will be if Saffas actually play some rugby - as it might turn a few more fans onto the game as a whole.

yappysnap wrote:Cheers Equo, yea it's great that the teams combined can draw so many fans to Wembley.

As for our home fans we do often get very good crowds and regularly fill The Stoop. I don't think we can add many more seats to the ground as it is now, what with the fine that we got a few seasons back and the lack of a rich backer at the club.

Having been on the Press bench most of Quins home games this since Jan, I think the lowest crowd I've seen has been over 12k, which is still good in a ~15k stadium. And some impressively one-eyed fans too (not counting the Quins A vs Exeter A Wednesdat night match where 5 606v2 posters out-chanted 500 locals )

yappysnap wrote:

LondonTiger wrote:You see, now I am being pedantic, but 62-55 is?


It is unlikely that Tigers or Saints will top the table. It is however highly possible that either could sneak in to second place. Quins, despite topping the table look most vulnerable to me - but if they win at the weekend the picture changes again.

Agree with that, not sure why it is though? Maybe player fatigue from the lack of rotation or other teams figuring us out as the seasons gone on.

It's because we really rely on Nick to execute our gameplan. Clegg is a very good attacking flyhalf but isn't good enough at controlling or kicking yet to replace Evans, which is why I think the two players we need are: 1) a big second row lump and 2) a good tactical and goal kicking player who can play somewhere other than 10 (e.g. Homer) so we can rest Evans in times like these and play Clegg without pressurising his whole game by exposing his weaknesses

So we really need a second five eiths type 12? Ala Twelvetrees or Mccalister

yappysnap wrote:So we really need a second five eiths type 12? Ala Twelvetrees or Mccalister

Not necessarily, I'd prefer a utility back actually

Ozzy3213 wrote:Tigers by lots
Falcons by not many
vs. - no comment
Quins by a couple
Bath by a few
Wasps by not very many at all

2 from 2 tonight then

Shame tomorrow will ruin your run!

Why so? Sarries to beat Quins????

Of course sods law says you'll now take it

Phew it wasn't us who ruined your run Ozzie! Shame for you that Bath have imploded!

Damn I knew i should have backed Quins, but then when ever I do we lose. So actually I won that match for them.

Just need Glos to do me a favour today now.

So Quins beat Sarries, Wasps beat Glaws.

Sweeeetttt

Ended up 4 from 5, not bad, damned Bath letting me down, I shan't be tipping them again!!!