Nadal Shakes Things Up

Nadal's withdrawal from Miami is a great shame, not only for his fans but also fans of competitive tennis. While one withdrawal doesn't necessary signal much in itself, it's been reported that Nadal has tendinitis in his left knee, which might be more serious. If Nadal has a serious problem what might this mean for the clay court season?

While we don't know how serious this is, my feeling that Nadal would lose his Monte Carlo title doesn't necessarily look so silly now. More importantly, will this affect Nadal's chances of retaining his Roland Garros crown? Gaining the points for Monte Carlo would certainly mean Djokovic would stay No.1 till after Wimbledon but given the gap between Federer and Nadal is 910 points, if Nadal doesn't get far (or withdraws), is it possible that Federer takes #2, either after Monte Carlo or after Rome?

Could we have a re-run of 2009 where Nadal is not a factor during this crucial stretch? It might be that we have the bizarre situation where Nadal is not a factor during the clay court season (which is worse than in 2009, because he was a factor). Could we also be looking at a second Murray victory over Djokovic on Sunday too? It really would be a kind or paper, scissors and rock, if then Murray can beat Djokovic, Djokovic can beat Nadal and Nadal can beat Federer and Federer can beat Murray. Not to mention that it would really shake things up in the top 4!

Nadal will probably recover, given this withdrawal and some R&R. Till the first MC Nadal match, I would not go too far in speculation.

From the sounds of what Nadal has said, sounds like R&R is what he needs, although I'm puzzled somewhat. He didn't withdraw from the Aussie Open QF in 2010 with a similar complaint (played most of that match) so unless the injury is serious, why did he withdraw?

I admit it's speculation as to whether this will impact the clay court season but....isn't clay more demanding to play on? If so, surely the timing of this injury is of importance. Last time when he had the injury, he had well over a month and a half to recover (about 6 weeks), now he's got little over 2 weeks!

There is a precedence here. He developed his knee injury in 2009 at the same point...Miami. The difference back then was that he soldiered on until it got worse through the clay season making him eventually take time off missing Wimbledon, etc. I'd be pretty sure 2009 was on his mind as the injury built this week and the thought that if he didnt act now it could take him out of the game for a long time like then.

You can imagine it must be a worry, indeed I would think ongoing knee trouble must always be at the back of his mind as he's had it for so long now nursing it from one year to the next...he often refers to wanting to be able to literally walk after his career is finished and I think this causes him to make many of the statements he does about the tour (whatever you feel about his style of play). So I think he's being much more proactive here to try to salvage his clay season and beyond. But we dont know how bad it is, it could be worse or better than 2009...clearly its bad enough to withdraw in an event he normally does well at and loses a fair number of points. It must weigh him down mentally when he's trying to avoid injury...and again I think its another reason he doesnt look happy on a court these days. If he ever develops a pretty serious knee injury, and who knows this could be it, I would never be surprised to see him walk (pardon the pun) out of the game suddenly to preserve life beyond tennis. But hey...its all conjecture...

Given Rafa's injury, it is obvious that he has no choice, but to make some fundamental changes to his game and technique, given the punish that he metes out to his body on a yearly basis. Every tennis player on the tour does this, but Rafa, given the amount of running he does and his physically grinding style of play, has to change. He is definitely capable. He just needs to have the will to do this.

If Federer took number the 2 spot off Nadal, and Murray beat Djokovic tomorrow, I think it would be great for the game. I would love nothing more than a real tussle between the top 4 for the remainder of the year.

The only problem with this is Murray on the clay. He reached some semis last year including RG and came within a couple of points of ended Novak's incredible run during the clay season... But in my opinion he overachieved a little last year on clay.

He's never won a clay title or even reached a final. He just doesn't move anywhere near as well on clay as he does on grass and especially hard courts. Because of this, even though i think he will win slams I don't think he'll ever reach number one as the other 3 are way stronger on clay.

As for Rafa I'm sure he'll be fine after (another) long rest. I think it was precautionary more than anything as his movement against Tsonga was not perfect, but still ok. Part of me wonders if he'd have tried to play through it if his path was anyone other than the 2 players who can rival him for doggedness and retrieval skills.

Agree kemet, many of us have said for seasons now (for which he may be paying the price) that he should have dropped events like Qatar, Rotterdam, perhaps Dubai, defo Barcelona, early DC matches, etc...but he never did. He made a decision to effectively play a 5-6 month season...and compress everything he has into it. Its the compression of his schedule into one half of the year rather than spreading it out that I believe has created so many problems for him. He should have managed his schedule much better in previous years, spaced himself more - he only had to look to Federer for the benefits of doing that. Yes he needs to adapt his play...and think he's now trying to do it more but is it too late. We'll see.

Danny_1982 wrote:If Federer took number the 2 spot off Nadal, and Murray beat Djokovic tomorrow, I think it would be great for the game. I would love nothing more than a real tussle between the top 4 for the remainder of the year.

The only problem with this is Murray on the clay. He reached some semis last year including RG and came within a couple of points of ended Novak's incredible run during the clay season... But in my opinion he overachieved a little last year on clay.

He's never won a clay title or even reached a final. He just doesn't move anywhere near as well on clay as he does on grass and especially hard courts. Because of this, even though i think he will win slams I don't think he'll ever reach number one as the other 3 are way stronger on clay.

As for Rafa I'm sure he'll be fine after (another) long rest. I think it was precautionary more than anything as his movement against Tsonga was not perfect, but still ok. Part of me wonders if he'd have tried to play through it if his path was anyone other than the 2 players who can rival him for doggedness and retrieval skills.

Murray ain't going to beat Nole tomorrow.

I wouldn't be quite so sure NITB. Murray's game matches up pretty well to Nole's. Apart from AO 2011, every match they have played in the last couple of years has been tight.

Either way it should be great to watch. It's fast turning into my favourite match up on tour.

"Murray ain't going to beat Nole tomorrow"

You are correct noleisthebest.

He will have to wait until Sunday



 

kemet wrote:Given Rafa's injury, it is obvious that he has no choice, but to make some fundamental changes to his game and technique, given the punish that he metes out to his body on a yearly basis. Every tennis player on the tour does this, but Rafa, given the amount of running he does and his physically grinding style of play, has to change. He is definitely capable. He just needs to have the will to do this.

But this is Rafa's real problem is that he has no alternative. The alternative is to dictate instead of being dictated. BUt dictating means taking the ball earlier, and be one step ahead of his opponent. That led to a straight forward loss versus Federer 2 weeks ago. There are 10s if not 100s of players out there who have a more agressive game than Nadal...but will lose to him cause they can;t sustain it for long enough.

Its not a question of will but "talent". Eye/hand coordination. He has a great advantage compared to all other players is that even injured, he is fitter and faster than most, but yet, he lacks the key ingredient.

lydian wrote:There is a precedence here. He developed his knee injury in 2009 at the same point...Miami. The difference back then was that he soldiered on until it got worse through the clay season making him eventually take time off missing Wimbledon, etc. I'd be pretty sure 2009 was on his mind as the injury built this week and the thought that if he didnt act now it could take him out of the game for a long time like then.

You can imagine it must be a worry, indeed I would think ongoing knee trouble must always be at the back of his mind as he's had it for so long now nursing it from one year to the next...he often refers to wanting to be able to literally walk after his career is finished and I think this causes him to make many of the statements he does about the tour (whatever you feel about his style of play). So I think he's being much more proactive here to try to salvage his clay season and beyond. But we dont know how bad it is, it could be worse or better than 2009...clearly its bad enough to withdraw in an event he normally does well at and loses a fair number of points. It must weigh him down mentally when he's trying to avoid injury...and again I think its another reason he doesnt look happy on a court these days. If he ever develops a pretty serious knee injury, and who knows this could be it, I would never be surprised to see him walk (pardon the pun) out of the game suddenly to preserve life beyond tennis. But hey...its all conjecture...

That's interesting lydian, the thing about 2009 which is distinctive is that prior to the French Open/Wimbledon, Nadal had a pretty good clay court season (on top of a brilliant hard court stretch, winning the Aussie Open and Indian Wells then the QF of Miami), cleaning up 3 titles from the 4 finals he made. Perhaps the injury affects him more in Bo5 sets rather than Bo3 sets matches? I think you're correct in thinking Nadal is being pro-active and trying to ward off potential problems further down the line. I think the real proof of that though will be if he takes part in Barcelona, if he's serious, he'll skip it. I can understand why he definitely won't miss Monte Carlo but Barcelona isn't as important (although it is his home tournament) and it is an Olympic year too so if he's serious about warding off problems, he will surely drop Barcelona from his schedule. The question which I have, is will he? He loses 500 points if he doesn't enter and the gap of 910 with Federer becomes 410, which is awfully close, meaning he risks Fed catching up and taking #2.

I think this could be "worse" than 2009. He needs to test himself against Djokovic - Djokovic is still going to be as hard to beat as before. However he will also have to contend with a Lendl improved Murray, that is, I think Murray is ready to take the next step (but he still needs the brains of Lendl next to him).

There is still uncertainty with regard to Federer - can he beat Nadal over a five set match - he has shown he can beat him in two sets.

Del Potro is younger than Nadal and seems to be improving (he still can't beat Federer though).

Then there are the young guns Tomic, Harrison and possibly Raonic.

Then there are those that on the day can raise their game and beat a hesitant Nadal (Berdych, Tsonga erm...).

By the way what is happening to Soderling?

Danny_1982 wrote:If Federer took number the 2 spot off Nadal, and Murray beat Djokovic tomorrow, I think it would be great for the game. I would love nothing more than a real tussle between the top 4 for the remainder of the year.

The only problem with this is Murray on the clay. He reached some semis last year including RG and came within a couple of points of ended Novak's incredible run during the clay season... But in my opinion he overachieved a little last year on clay.

He's never won a clay title or even reached a final. He just doesn't move anywhere near as well on clay as he does on grass and especially hard courts. Because of this, even though i think he will win slams I don't think he'll ever reach number one as the other 3 are way stronger on clay.

As for Rafa I'm sure he'll be fine after (another) long rest. I think it was precautionary more than anything as his movement against Tsonga was not perfect, but still ok. Part of me wonders if he'd have tried to play through it if his path was anyone other than the 2 players who can rival him for doggedness and retrieval skills.

I expect Andy to win his first clay title. Given that the forehand has more bite and is more consistent, plus most importanty, Andy actually now leads with it - there is no reason why he can't compete on the dirt, the rest of his game is made for it

Nore Staat wrote:
By the way what is happening to Soderling?

Yeah how is he? I miss his game Didn't think I did, but I saw him live once against Ferrer, and I really enjoyed it.

In the seasons where he has been most successful so far in his career Nadal has done relatively poorly at the Australian Open and timed his run of top form from March/April through to the Summer- this year he was on 'slam-winning' form at the Australian Open only to be thwarted in a shattering final.

I have wondered out loud several times on this site whether he can maintain 'slam-winning' form in January and again during the Spring and Summer. He didn't in 2009 and we'll see what he can do this year.

barrystar wrote:In the seasons where he has been most successful so far in his career Nadal has done relatively poorly at the Australian Open and timed his run of top form from March/April through to the Summer- this year he was on 'slam-winning' form at the Australian Open only to be thwarted in a shattering final.

I have wondered out loud several times on this site whether he can maintain 'slam-winning' form in January and again during the Spring and Summer. He didn't in 2009 and we'll see what he can do this year.

I guess the real issue is whether this injury is more like the one in 2009 or in 2010. If it's the former, it has serious implications for Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the Olympics, if the latter, it means Nadal will remain a potent threat at those events. If it's more like 2009 though, you've got to wonder how those 3 major tournaments might go, Djokovic could take Wimbledon (although has Djokovic ever played Federer on grass, who won?) but Fed would certainly be able to take one of them if not two (depends on how he is on clay).

How Nadal does on the clay court tournaments prior to Roland Garros doesn't reveal much either, he did well in them in 2009 but he still ended up surrendering both the French and Wimbledon whereas the story in 2010 was different, the injury did appear a lot earlier, it will be interesting to see how things go for Nadal, he certainly has a lot to defend in the next few months.